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MLB Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for April 2, 2025 )
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Bet: Boston Red Sox ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Orioles have been alternating wins and losses all season, they just won their last game, so are due for another loss here. This is not the actual reason Boston is the play, the reason is that Boston is sending Garret Crochet back to the mound, and he led the team to their only victory this season. Baltimore is scratching and clawing to put their lineup together, they are without their superstar shortstop Gunnar Henderson, and Colton Cowser is still out of the lineup after being third on the team in home runs last season. Boston is due to bring their bats out, Rafael Devers is 0-19 to start the season, and this trend will not last long as he is a career .278 batter in a career that started in 2017. Crochet showed good control in his opener, only walking two batters over five innings. Boston will get the win here to get back on track. Take the Red Sox to win.
MLB Game of the Week Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for April 1st, 2025 )
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The New York Yankees tied the MLB record with 15 homers in their first three games of the season and they’ll be looking to keep things rolling as they get ready to welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Bronx. The Yankees swept the Brewers in their home opener, averaging 12 runs per game in that matchup. For the Diamondbacks, they split their series against the Cubs, averaging 6.8 runs per game in their first four games of the season. Both teams have been hitting the ball well, but we think this matchup is going to come down to pitching and here’s why the Diamondbacks have a slight edge in this matchup. Corbin Burnes is set to take the mound looking for his first ever win against the Yankees on Tuesday. Burnes is 0-1 against the Yankees in his lifetime in 3 starts, but he isn’t winless because he hasn’t pitched well. Burnes has a 1.42 ERA in those 3 starts, striking out 22 hitters in 19 innings pitched. Taking the mound for the Yankees will be Will Warren who was called up in the second half of last year. Warren struggled when he joined the majors, going 0-3 with a 10.32 ERA, and in spring training this year, he hasn’t done much better posting a 5.09 ERA in 7 games, striking out 25 in 23 innings pitched. The Yankees hottest hitter right now, Aaron Judge, will be looking to break out of his slump against Corbin Burnes in this matchup. Judge is 0-7 in his career against Burnes with 3 strikeouts. Despite the Yankees knocking the cover off the ball in their first three games, the Diamondbacks have the advantage in this matchup simply because of pitching. Warren will give up too many big hits to a solid Diamondbacks team and Burnes should be able to slow down this Yankees offense just enough. Give us the Diamondbacks to steal one on the road.
MLB Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 31, 2025 )
Texas Rangers vs Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
In this game, we will see the Texas Rangers travel to Ohio to take the Cincinnati Reds. Both teams are coming off hard fought series’ to open up the MLB season. We saw the Rangers outplay the Boston Red Sox and win the series 3-1, while we saw the Reds drop the series 2-1 against the San Francisco Giants. Looking at the previous outings, fans on both sides were waiting for the bats to take off and it never happened. Looking at the game tonight, we have Kumar Rocker for the Rangers facing off against Brady Singer for the Reds. Rocker comes into this game hoping to build on his 3 starts of last season. We may start to question this new start if we look at his numbers from spring training. More concerning is the fact that he walked 9 guys, almost one an inning. Also, Texas starter Kumar Rocker was 0-2 with a 3.8 ERA in just 11.2 innings pitched last season for the Rangers. We think this is a good spot to play the Reds as slim underdogs. For starters, they’ll turn to Brady Singer, who is coming off of a solid season with the Royals, where he posted a 3.71 ERA (31st) and racked up 170 strikeouts (33rd). The right-hander was also lights out during Spring Training, which we put a bit of stock into. He registered a 2.55 ERA across 17.2 innings of work. Singer will be tasked with slowing down a Texas offense that’s averaging only 3.25 runs per game this season. Cincinnati has won eight of its last 12 played at home. The Reds have a respectable team batting average of .246 while their slugging percentage is .369. Let’s pick it back up with Rocker, who has only three MLB starts to his name. Rocker’s Spring Training numbers were horrific, where he made five appearances (13.0 IP) and gave up 13 earned runs (9.00 ERA)! We are willing to bet that the right-hander doesn’t just “flip a switch” and become serviceable in the Majors. The unsteady bullpen play of the Rangers and the trend of Singer starting the year hot, leads us to take the Reds to win Game 1.
MLB Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 30, 2025 )
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/-105 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Cleveland Guardians won 92 games last season, and this was while dealing with major injuries to several of their players in the starting lineup. The Guardians are now at full strength, and their lineup will continue to prove to be too powerful for the rest of the AL Central. They got a strong boost from Manzardo in their first game, if the 24-year-old can keep up a solid level of production, it will make it more difficult to pitch around Ramirez in big spots. Bibee is on the mound for the Guardians, the 26-year-old is in the prime of his career and is 2-0 in his appearances against the Royals. Bibee started against the Royals late last season, only allowing two hits and striking out six in a game that Cleveland went on to win. Michael Wacha will get the start here as a 33-year-old right-hander. He has bounced around the Majors, as he is currently on his fifth team over the past six seasons. He was with the Royals last year, where he finished with a 13-8 record and an ERA of 3.35. The Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has lost his last two games against the Guardians. The Guardians will win the first series on the road. Take the Guardians to win.
MLB Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 29, 2025 )
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Houston Astros ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We head to Houston on Saturday night for a New York Mets vs Houston Astros prediction. This is the rubber match, after the teams each picked up a 3-1 victory in the first two games of the season. The Astros got the win on Thursday behind 7 strong innings from Framber Valdez. Josh Hader was shaky in the 9th, but ultimately locked it down. On Friday, the script reversed, as the Mets got 4 hitless innings from 4 different relievers in route to the win. We look for the Astros to take the rubber match on Saturday night. The pitching matchup is Griffin Canning vs Spencer Arrighetti. Canning would not be in the rotation for the Mets, if not for the rash of injuries to open the season. We think he is plenty vulnerable, and the Astros’ lineup looks good to us with the additions of Paredes and Walker. On the mound for Houston is Arrighetti, a guy who had a rough start to his major league career last season, but whose second half was electric. This is a guy with overpowering stuff at times, and while the Mets can stack quite a few lefties against him, we expect Arrighetti to have a great season for Houston, beginning on opening weekend. We love the pitching advantage here for Houston, even if the first couple times through the rotation have a high risk of variance and unpredictability. One of the main reasons why we go with the Astros is simply because they know Griffin Canning well and have a strong record against him. The current Astros are 27-for-88 with four doubles and six home runs versus Griffin, who spent his entire career in the AL West. Yordan Alvarez is 7-for-13 with two round-trippers against the former Angel. The Mets have never seen Spencer Arrighetti before. Last season, Arrighetti pitched well down the stretch. He had a 1.95 ERA in August and a 3.92 ERA in September. The Mets were more dangerous when hitting the lefties in 2024. They had a 116 OPS+ against the southpaws and a 103 OPS+ versus the righties. Give us the Astros to get the win on Saturday.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 28, 2025 )
Michigan Wolverines vs Auburn Tigers
Bet: Auburn Tigers -8.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
It was a wild weekend for the Michigan Wolverines. They nearly blew a double-digit lead to UC San Diego on Thursday, scoring just 27 second-half points and ultimately winning by only 3. Then in the round of 32, the Wolverines faced a 10-point second-half deficit against Texas A&M before going on a torrid run – scoring 46 points in the final 15 minutes of the game while outscoring the Aggies 30-16 over the final 10 minutes. Head coach Dusty May and his squad now advance to the Sweet 16 in Atlanta to play the #1 overall seed Auburn Tigers less than 2 hours up I-85 from their own campus. While Michigan’s fanbase tends to travel well, I’m expecting there to be a heavy Auburn contingent at State Farm Arena. Michigan typically overpowers its opponents with size in the front court thanks to its dueling 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, but Auburn has the size to match the Wolverines in the post. Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell are 2 of the better post defenders in the country, both boasting top 50 marks in KenPom’s block rate out of 2,300+ Division 1 players. Head coach Bruce Pearl will also likely use Chaney Johnson on Wolf for a bit, as Johnson has freakish athleticism that would be well-utilized against the versatile Michigan big man. The Tigers have the advantage in this matchup when it comes to reliability from the 3-point line and in the turnover department. While Michigan has been a little bit better at taking care of the ball in the postseason, the Wolverines are still 324th in turnover rate this season, and their 14 turnovers against the Tritons in the first round almost cost them the game. Moreover, the Wolverines only have 2 real perimeter threats in Nimari Burnett and former-Tiger Tre Donaldson. On the other end, Auburn simply doesn’t give the ball away. In fact, the Tigers are pretty much the polar opposite of Michigan, as they turn the ball over on less than 14 percent of their possessions – which is 5th nationally. The Tigers also have 4 shooters that knock down at least 38% of their perimeter shots on at least 135 attempts. We don`t see a path to success here for the Wolverines against a deep Auburn team that gets it done on both ends of the floor and has been playing together for a couple years. Give us the Tigers to win by 10+ and advance to the Elite 8.
MLB Opening Day Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 27, 2025 )
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: San Francisco Giants ML/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
It is Opening Day, and that brings us to the only place where we are always guaranteed to have an Opening Day baseball game scheduled: Cincinnati. There is nothing quite like the Queen City on the first day of the season. It is a city holiday, with schools dismissed, a parade and tons of festivities. The Reds are the only team guaranteed to open at home, a tradition that dates back to the earliest days of baseball when Cincinnati was actually the furthest team south, and thus most likely to have playable weather. As fate would have it, the city is looking at cool weather and potential rainy conditions on Thursday. How should we play this game from a betting perspective? Our Giants vs. Reds prediction is San Francisco on the money line. The Reds have an exciting young lineup with guys like Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain atop the order. But at the start of the season they will be down at least a couple of starters with Spencer Steer sidelined and their starting catcher Tyler Stephenson down with an oblique. That’s tough when facing a guy like Logan Webb, who has been in midseason form all of spring training. The 28-year-old was 3-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in five Spring Training starts. He went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.23 WHIP last season (33 starts). The Giants may not have the notoriety of their National League West division rivals, but they will be competitive in the NL Wild Card race this season. The team signed Milwaukee Brewers star shortstop Willy Adames this offseason, boosting the middle of their lineup. The 29-year-old is coming off a career year in which he launched a career-high 32 homers with a 119 wRC+. Hunter Greene is set to start for the Redlegs, and this dude has a shot at a special season. Don’t expect more than 5.0 innings in his first outing, but keep an eye on him in 2025. At the back end, both teams have great bullpens, but the Reds will start the season without their closer. Again, the Reds have some injuries to open the year and that gives the Giants the edge out of the gates. Logan Webb’s consistency and ability to generate soft contact gives the Giants another edge over Greene’s higher-variance profile. San Francisco ended spring looking sharper and they will provide enough runs to support Webb. Take San Francisco on the moneyline.
NO Plays released for March 26, 2025
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Chattanooga vs Bradley
Bet: Chattanooga +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The Chattanooga Mocs are red hot, having gone 14-1 straight up and 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games. Their offense has been a big reason for that, with the Mocs averaging 84.5 points per game since the start of February. Chattanooga's offense has excellent ball movement (21st in the country in assists per field goal), limits turnovers (48th in turnover rate), and shoots 58.1% inside the arc — the eighth-best mark in Div 1. That's the sort of attack that can score on the road. While the Bradley Braves are better on defense than Chattanooga, they have flaws. The Braves are just 351st at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets, 324th at defending off-ball screens, and 272nd against the pick and roll. The Mocs are in the Top 10 of efficiency at running the pick-and-roll and off-ball screens, and they shoot 36.8% from deep. The Mocs have been very feisty in this tournament and they get a break with the 6-foot-9 Montgomery being out for this game. Bradley was able to overcome his loss, but rebounding is going to be an issue. They were 121st in total rebounding percentage and that should help the Mocs' cause, who are 228th. Chattanooga also shoots 48% from the field away from home and 34.3% from beyond the arc. On top of that, Bradley will play without two of its top three scorers, Hannas and Montgomery, who are out with undisclosed injuries. Chattanooga recorded nine consecutive road victories. Take the Chattanooga Mocs to cover the spread.
NO Plays released for March 24, 2025
NCAAB Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 23, 2025 )
Illinois vs Kentucky
Bet: Kentucky ML/+115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Kentucky Wildcats just got one of their best players back from injury in Lamont Butler (11.0 PPG, 4.3 APG) in time for the NCAA Tournament. They have struggled without him, but having him back gives them a legit chance to make a deep run. They handled a very good Troy team 76-57 as 11-point favorites in their opener. Now they take on one of the most inconsistent teams in the country in the Illinois Fighting Illini. They have so many blowout losses to teams of Kentucky's caliber here down the stretch. They lost by 23 to Maryland, by 43 to Duke, by 21 to Wisconsin and by 14 to Michigan State in their 4 losses in their last 9 games. Kentucky is 12-2 SU against non-conference opponents this year where they are scoring 88.1 points per game. Illinois is 1-3 ATS this year when the line is +3 to -3. Kentucky is 15-4 SU last 19 games when the total is 160 to 169 1/2. Just not buying the love Illinois is getting from the odds makers. They rallied for some nice wins to close out the regular season but got killed by Maryland in the quarterfinals of the Big 10 Tournament. We do not believe they are great in any area and their defense is not strong this season. When they lose, they tend to get blown out and we see Kentucky dominating this game for start to finish. Kentucky is getting healthier, and this is an important game for Coach Pope to show they are moving in the right direction. They played in the SEC and they are more battle tested. They shoot it well from the arc and are due for some ATS wins in the NCAA Tournament. Wrong team favored in this matchup. Take Kentucky on the moneyline as our NCAAB Shocker GAME OF THE YEAR Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 22, 2025 )
Michigan vs Texas A&M
Bet: Michigan +2.5 /-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Wolverines have won four straight games, while the Aggies have won three of their last four games. Michigan has the edge here because they're shooting the ball well, making over 47 percent of their field goals, while the Aggies make 41 percent. They've also done a better job at the charity stripe, making over 72 percent of their free throws, while the Aggiues make less than 70 percent of theirs. They rebounded the ball well and grabbed more than 10 offensive rebounds per game in their last three games, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won't give up many easy-scoring opportunities. The Aggies usually play well defensively but they struggled in recent games, giving up more than 72 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Wolverines. Go with Michigan to cover the spread as our NCAAB Invincible GAME OF THE YEAR Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Guaranteed No Limit Plays ( Plays released for March 22, 2025 )
Creighton vs. Auburn
Bet: Creighton +9/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
We really like the underdog in this matchup and the number looks a bit off when you consider that the Blue Jays shot 57 percent from the field, and 46 percent from beyond the arc in their first round win over Louisville. Auburn appeared to be feeling the pressure in their first game, and the fact that they hit 56 percent from the free throw line is a massive red flag. Creighton has been impressive in the Big East Tournament and in their opening round win over Louisville. The Bluejays beat UConn 71-62 to advance to the Big East Championship Game where they played a good 1H against St. John's but ran out of gas in the 2H, which tends to happen to every team against St. John's. They clearly looked recovered on Thursday in time to crush Louisville 89-75 in what was essentially a home game for the Cardinals being played in Lexington. Now the Bluejays have what it takes to hang with Auburn, which has been very overrated here down the stretch. The Tigers are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. They were upset three times by Texas A&M, Alabama and Tennessee, and they only beat Ole Miss by 5 as 12.5-point favorites and Alabama State by 20 as 32-point favorites. 4X Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner is the type of defender that can cause Player of the Year candidate Johnni Broome troubles for Auburn. We also believe the Big East is underrated and the SEC is grossly overrated in the NCAA Tournament. Give us Creighton +9.
Drake vs. Texas Tech
Bet: Drake +7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Drake took down #6 seed Missouri on Thursday, shooting 54.3% from the field. On Saturday, the #11 Bulldogs will be looking to pull off another upset as they look to upset #3 Texas Tech. Bennett Stirtz led the Bulldogs with 21 points, and they got some much needed help from Tavion Banks — who scored 15 points off the bench. Texas Tech was able to squeeze by UNC Wilmington but struggled from the field, shooting only 39.1%. Kerwin Walton led this TTU team with 27 points. If the Red Raiders want to march on to the Sweet 16, they will need JT Toppin and the rest of this offense to get going against a tough Bulldogs defense. Drake is not afraid to take on Texas Tech in this matchup. The Bulldogs already beat Vanderbilt, Missouri, Miami and Kansas State this season. Drake is only giving up 58.4 points per game, and even though Texas Tech has a terrific offense, this Bulldogs team has been able to step up and force turnovers and score when needed. Drake was just able to limit Missouri to just 57 points, a team that was averaging 83.6 ppg this season. Drake has a very unique style of play as they are one of the top defensive teams in the nation and they love to play slow. The Bulldogs have limited opponents' chances to score and forced them to play defense for the entire shot clock. Texas Tech did not play efficiently in their matchup with UNC Wilmington and struggled to shoot the ball. The Red Raiders made 13 threes but it took them an NCAA Tournament record, 46 attempts to do that. Texas Tech gave up a ton of offensive rebounds despite playing solid defensively. Drake is the Cinderella team in this year's NCAA Tournament and they get another favorable matchup here. The Bulldogs will lock down a Texas Tech team that really struggled offensively against UNC Wilmington and the Red Raiders will not shoot the ball efficiently. Texas Tech's leading scorer, JT Toppin took just eight shots in that game and three players attempted eight three-pointers or more. Drake will jump on Texas Tech early, forcing turnovers and contested three-pointers, and Bennett Stirtz will continue to lead this team. Take Drake to complete another upset and cover the spread.
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Houston Cougars
Bet: Houston Cougars -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
This is a big-time battle between two teams that are playing their best basketball of the season. Houston is on a 14-game win streak and has been the best defensive and rebounding team in the nation. The Cougars have a guard trio that can get hot and score on all three levels and as a team, Houston is shooting lights out from three. Gonzaga absolutely dominated Georgia in their first-round matchup without some of their key players putting on their best performances. Gonzaga is very experienced and they have one of the best starting units in the nation. Both of these teams have the potential to make a deep run in this tournament but I'm going with Houston in this game. The Cougars are not only a top defensive team in the nation but their efficiency on the offensive end is off the charts. Houston is shooting nearly 40% from three and commits very few turnovers. The Cougars have been battle-tested all season long and this team is built to win a national championship. Gonzaga has not had the dominant season we have grown accustomed to seeing from them and did not play a lot of tough competition. Georgia was one of the weaker teams in the SEC and Gonzaga allowed them to get a ton of offensive rebounds and get to the free-throw line. The Bulldogs have not shot the ball consistently from three and Houston has plenty of size and length to compete with Gonzaga's forwards and center. Houston is the better team in this matchup and they will cover the spread and advance.
NCAAB Guaranteed No Limit Plays ( Plays released for March 21, 2025 )
Baylor vs. Mississippi St
Bet: Baylor ML/+100 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Both teams struggled down the stretch of the regular season, which has to be concerning heading into this contest. Mississippi State has struggled on the defensive end of the floor, surrendering at least 85 points in five of their last seven games, losing each of those contests. Baylor, for all their struggles late in the year, was in tight games: they lost to Colorado, Cincinnati and Texas Tech by two points, by four to Houston and by seven to Arizona in that stretch. The Bears have a very good interior presence in Omier and they are the better defensive team. Take Baylor here as they earn the victory to advance to the second round.
Colorado State vs. Memphis
Bet: Memphis ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The fact that we can get Memphis as a slight underdog is incredible for us. The defensive ratings show there is a slight difference as Colorado State is 51st in the nation with a 99.1 defensive rating while Memphis is 40th with a 97.8 defensive rating. The offensive rebounding percentage shows a significant difference here with the Rams being 270th in college basketball with a 24.7 offensive rebounding rate while the Tigers are all the way up at 26th with a 33.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Go with the Memphis Tigers to win this game as an underdog here.
Vanderbilt vs St. Mary's
Bet: St. Mary's -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
We like the price we are getting on the St. Mary's Gaels as short 4-point favorites over the Vanderbilt Commodores. We saw Gonzaga blast SEC opponent Georgia 89-68 yesterday, and St. Mary's beat Gonzaga twice this season. Vanderbilt is a step down from Georgia. The Commodores are limping into the NCAA Tournament going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 13-point home loss to Arkansas as 7.5-point favorites, an 11-point road loss at aforementioned Georgia as 4.5-point dogs, and a 79-72 loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament as 2.5-point favorites. The Gales fit a nice system here that pertains to tournament favorites that have a .790 or higher Win percentage and scored les than 55 points in their last game. The Gaels are ousted from the WCC Final once again by Gonzaga who is pasting SEC Georgia. These favorites are 7-2 straight up and against the spread long term. The Gaels were the best team all year in the WCC and Vandy is a middle of the pack SEC Team and they are 263rd on defense and 258th shooting the three. In Contrast St. Marys is 5th in the country on defense and is over .500 vs fellow tournament teams while Vandy is 7 games under.500 vs Tournament teams. Play on the Gaels here today.
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Georgia Bulldogs vs Gonzaga Bulldogs
Bet: Gonzaga Bulldogs -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Georgia is a very good team, but this time of the year is all about which teams are peaking and playing their best basketball, and Gonzaga is one of those teams. Gonzaga played an extremely tough non-conference schedule, and while they didn't come out with that many wins, they are battle-tested. Gonzaga is experienced, and when this team is clicking on both ends of the floor, they have the potential to make a deep run in this tournament. Graham Ike is a matchup nightmare for opponents, and the overall size and versatility of Gonzaga's forwards have given opponents trouble. Georgia runs a lot of their offense through Asa Newell, and while this team has a balanced offensive attack, Gonzaga will make it very hard for them to score. Georgia is not a great three-point shooting team, and they have had big problems turning the ball over. Gonzaga is as good as any team in the nation at turning over opponents and scoring off those turnovers. Georgia has very little postseason experience, and they will struggle on both ends of the floor in this matchup. Take Gonzaga as our NCAAB GAME OF THE YEAR Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play to dominate the paint, lock down Georgia defensively, and cover the spread.
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UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Bet: Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
UNC Wilmington had a great season in the CAA this season but this is a bad 1st Round matchup for the Seahawks. Texas Tech was outstanding in the Big 12 all season long and have an impressive resume. The Red Raiders are battle-tested and have beaten five NCAA Tournament teams. JT Toppin, the Player of the Year in the Big 12 and a member of the AP All-America Second Team, will be the best player on the floor in this game and his size and versatility will cause problems for UNC Wilmington all night long. UNC Wimington's toughest game this season was against Kansas and they were absolutely dominated in every facet of the game. The Seahawks have not played another team like Texas Tech and they will struggle to put points on the board in this game. UNC Wilmington has not shot the three well this season and have relied on scoring around the rim and getting to the free-throw line. Texas Tech is a very good defensive team and they have the ability to make a deep run in this tournament. Take the Red Raiders to advance and cover the spread.
VCU vs. BYU
Bet: BYU -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
VCU’s guards Max Shulga and Joe Basimile are household names in the A-10 and have piloted their program to an impressive campaign. So impressive, that the books have put just a 3-point spread on this game. However, the value sits with BYU who has navigated a tough BIG12 schedule while defeating some of the best teams in the conference. BYU’s extraordinary depth will allow them to keep pressure up against VCU and will not have to think as much about the next round. The Cougars are the battle tested team here and will easily grab the win.
Drake vs. Missouri
Bet: Drake +7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We’ve got a distinct clash of styles here as Drake plays stellar defense at a slow tempo while Missouri loves to run and gun while piling up points. The Bulldogs are very stingy defensively and they have a veteran leader in Stirtz to keep the team in check on both ends of the floor. Drake shoots the ball well and makes the most of their limited offensive possessions. Missouri crumbled down the stretch, losing five of seven games and giving up at least 91 points in four of them. Drake isn’t a threat to put up those kinds of numbers but we’ve seen the Tigers struggle against good defensive teams. As a result, take the Bulldogs in this contest with the points and don’t be afraid to sprinkle on the money line.
UC San Diego Tritons vs Michigan Wolverines
Bet: UC San Diego Tritons +2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
A popular upset pick in most bracket pools is going to be taking at least one #12 seed to knock off a #5 seed. This is a common upset that we’ve seen occur many times over the years, and I’m of the belief that this upset trend will continue this week in the South Region when the UC San Diego Tritons take on the Michigan Wolverines on Thursday. Just a few years removed from jumping up to the Division I level, UC San Diego has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, winning 30 games (most of which came in dominant fashion) en route to a Big West title and a shot at knocking off the Big Ten champions. It just so happens that the Tritons are well-equipped to pull off the upset as short underdogs in this game. From a situational spot perspective, this Michigan team is coming off playing 3 hard-fought games in as many days en route to winning the Big Ten tournament title last Sunday. Now, the Wolverines have to travel to Denver to play at altitude against a UC San Diego team that is a very well-rounded group, and the numbers back it up. In fact, the Tritons are one of the highest-rated mid-major sides ever by the predictive analytic sites, such as KenPom, Barttorvik, etc. Part of why UC San Diego will be live in this game is that this is a pretty difficult team to prepare for, especially on a short turnaround. The Tritons play a unique style of basketball that emphasizes unselfishness and turning down good shots for great shots, which is part of why they have a very consistent offense (58th in adjusted efficiency, 30th in 2-point percentage, 30th in effective field goal percentage). However, the biggest edge in this game for Eric Olen’s team is their ability to force a ton of turnovers (2nd nationally in turnovers forced), while also not turning the ball over themselves. This strength should especially come in handy against an extremely turnover-prone Wolverines offense (328th in turnover percentage) that could find themselves in big trouble on Thursday against an excellent UC San Diego defense that is elite at defending the paint (93rd percentile in rim defense efficiency). Michigan is also due for some massive close game regression after winning a ton of games by 5 points or fewer throughout Big Ten play. All things considered, we will take the Tritons to pull off the outright upset on the money line.
Creighton vs Louisville
Bet: Louisville Cardinals -2.5/-114 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
The first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament begins in earnest on Thursday with a matchup between the Creighton Bluejays and Louisville Cardinals. From a situational spot perspective, this is a tough draw for Creighton, who will have to travel to Lexington, Kentucky to play what is essentially a true road game against a Louisville team that was pretty clearly underseeded by the selection committee. The Cardinals have advantages on both sides of the ball in this matchup, particularly when it comes to their offense against the unique style of drop coverage Creighton employs with Ryan Kalkbrenner patrolling the paint. With veteran guards Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr. leading the way in the backcourt, Louisville has the shotmaking to take advantage of the Kalk drop, which allows for clean midrange looks from around 15 feet. If the Cardinals do see success at attacking the drop coverage, the passing lanes should open up and there will be shooters open on the perimeter. On the other side of the ball, Creighton is a solid offense, but this is decidedly not the same team as a year ago in terms of its depth of scoring. The Bluejays are extremely reliant on senior point guard Steven Ashworth to run the show and set up his teammates, in addition to their need for his offense (16.3 points per game). While Ashworth is a very good player, he has exhibited the tendency to be a bit loose with the ball when pressured consistently by high-level competition, which is exactly what we believe Louisville will do throughout this game. Additionally, the Cardinals are top-25 nationally in post-up defense, which obviously looms large when going up against a player of Kalkbrenner’s caliber. Also, Louisville has been the biggest turnaround team after they were in turmoil last season. They were ACC runners up and finished with 27 wins as this team has everything. Look for this game to be dictated by them as they play one of the best inside out games in the country. They put up nearly 80 ppg and they'll wear down this Creighton side. The Blue Jays were worn out by St. John's in the Big East title game and this has a similar feel in terms of the same style. Ultimately, we will side with the Cardinals to get the job done and advance to the Round of 32.
Arkansas vs. Kansas
Bet: Arkansas +5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Two of the winningest coaches in the history of college basketball will face each other in the Arkansas/Kansas matchup, as John Calipari and Bill Self lead their squads. This is the 13th meeting between the coaches, who have split the 12 previous matchups. These two teams last met two years ago in mid-March, with the Razorbacks prevailing, 72-71 as a 3.5-point underdog. Both teams struggled a bit down the stretch. But Arkansas certainly won a few extra games straight up, and covered a few extra games against the spread, as well. Neither team was very good playing away from home this season, as the Razorbacks went 4-6 as an away squad, and the Jayhawks 4-8 on the road. Both teams are led by some monster athletes. While Kansas’, Dickinson and Mayo are outstanding players. The rest of the supporting class kind of takes a backseat to those two. Arkansas's starting-five possesses four players averaging double-digits and one player flirting with double-digits. Both teams score about the same, and both teams allow about the same. We think this game is going to get very physical, which would give the Razorbacks an edge, as they are a little bit better from the free-throw line. Calipari is well aware of what he needs to do to put his team in position to win this time of year and going up against Bill Self, this should be quite the chess match. What Calipari has is more scorers, which will help keep Arkansas neck-and-neck with the Jayhawks here. Over the last ten games, Arkansas went 6-3-1 ATS while Kansas was 4-6 ATS. We just feel this is too many points to give a team led by a coach who knows how to motivate his players.
McNeese State vs Clemson
Bet: Over 134/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Just feel that this has a good setup for fouling at the end of the game and thus we should be able to reach the 140s in points. The Cowboys score over 77 points per game and if they can hit the high sixties, we should be able to cash this ticket. Clemson had a great season led by Chase Hunter and we see them making some noise in this tournament. They will need to be playing well on the offensive side of the floor and we see that occurring on Thursday against a team that likes to get up and down the court.
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Xavier Musketeers vs Texas Longhorns
Bet: Xavier Musketeers -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The final game of the First Four comes out of the Midwest Region on Wednesday night, when we’re treated to a 2023 Sweet 16 rematch between the Xavier Musketeers and the Texas Longhorns. The winner will move on to the field of 64 and travel to Milwaukee as an 11-seed to take on 6-seed Illinois on Friday night. The Musketeers didn’t manage to win any games in the Big East Tournament, coming up just short in an 89-87 loss to Marquette, but they certainly finished the regular season strong, racking up 7 consecutive wins to close the year with a respectable 13-7 record in conference play. Meanwhile, the Longhorns finished just 6-12 in the SEC, but the conference as a whole was a gauntlet, with 14 teams earning invitations to the big dance. Texas was on the bubble heading into the SEC Conference Tournament but secured their spot with wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M before falling to Tennessee in the Quarterfinal. This is an intriguing matchup, and it won’t be short of any star power on either side. Texas may be the underdog in this contest, but they have one of the top guards in the country in Tre Johnson, who led the SEC with 19.8 ppg. Johnson is talented enough to carry his team to 1 or 2 wins in this tournament, but we ultimately land on Xavier coming out the victor. The Musketeers will rely on Zach Freemantle, who averaged 17.3 ppg and was notably absent in mid-December when Xavier lost in overtime on the road to UConn and lost by just 2 points to Marquette later in the week. Xavier showed resilience without their best player in those games, but with Freemantle at full health, the Musketeers have the edge against Texas. Per BartTorvik, the Musketeers have been more efficient both offensively and defensively over their last 10 games than their season averages, whereas the Longhorns have regressed. Most notable are the defensive numbers for Texas, who rank 69th in defensive efficiency on the season but rank 129th across their last 10 games. Texas won when their backs were up against the wall in the SEC Tournament, but these teams are trending in opposite directions come madness time. Xavier is an outstanding 15-2 ATS since 2022 when playing as a favorite of 3 points or less. Lay the points with Xavier.
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North Carolina (UNC) vs. San Diego State
Bet: North Carolina (UNC) -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Two teams with contrasting styles go head-to-head Tuesday night in Ohio. The Tar Heels have one of the more up-tempo offenses in the country and are 26th in the nation in scoring. The Aztecs slow things to a crawl and grind out games defensively, ranked 13th in scoring defense. Neither team has been efficient ATS this season with the Tar Heels just 15-19-1 against the line and the Aztecs just 12-17. The game appears to be in North Carolina's hands. They can make the selection committee look like geniuses or fools depending on their performance on Tuesday night. Despite being just 1-8 against Top 25 teams this year, the Tar Heels have come alive down the stretch and, quite simply, won the games they needed to win. Duke is ranked in the top 10 in the country in the major defensive categories and the Tar Heels scored 71 points against them in their last game. Three of North Carolina’s last four games were against top four ACC defenses, so they have been aptly tested coming into this game. North Carolina is 8-2 ATS in their last ten games while San Diego State went 4-6 ATS in the same stretch of games. San Diego State struggled with consistency and finished the year 6-4 overall and just 4-6 ATS. The Heels will win this one with just enough offense against the offensively-challenged Aztecs.
Wichita State vs. Oklahoma State
Bet: Wichita State +6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
Oklahoma State getting a home game despite a losing record is more based on the fact that the NIT is banking on ticket sales rather than rewarding good performance. The Cowboys were just 1-14 in Quad I games this season and they did suffer a Quad 3 loss to Florida Atlantic in the Charleston Classic back in November. Wichita State didn’t set the world on fire but they were playing hard to the end, pushing eventual tournament champ Memphis to the limit in the quarterfinals. The Shockers also had a six-game win streak in February while finishing with a winning record. Seeing how Oklahoma State folded down the stretch, it’s tough to have faith in them at all. Take the Shockers with the points and sprinkle on the moneyline as well.
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Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors
Bet: Golden State Warriors -4/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Golden State Warriors have been one of the best teams in the NBA since trading for Jimmy Butler. They have gone 15-2 SU & 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall and one of the two losses came without Butler in the lineup. They rank 2nd in net rating during this stretch trailing only the Cleveland Cavaliers. Now the Warriors have more reinforcements on the way with Jonathan Kuminga (16.6 PPG) returning for the first time since January 4th. He had 18 points against the Kings and 10 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists against the Knicks in his two games since returning. Stephon Curry is questionable tonight, but we are guessing he gives it a go since the Warriors are 4 favorites here. While the Warriors will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days, the Nuggets are running on fumes right now playing their 6th game in 9 days. That's a big reason they have gone just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. They struggled to put away the Lakers without Luka Doncic winning by 5 as 15-point favorites, lost outright to the Wizards as 12-point favorites and lost outright to the Timberwolves by 20 as 1.5-point favorites in their last three games coming in. Mike Malone may elect to rest some guys tonight knowing that they are running on fumes. Despite Denver dominating the Warriors head-to-head over the past few seasons, we think it’s time to strike when the iron’s hot and back the Warriors on their home floor. Across their last 15 games, Golden State ranks inside the top 5 in both offensive and defensive rating and they will need to win some games over the teams ahead of them in the standings to avoid falling into the play-in slot with the Timberwolves and Clippers on their heels. Over the course of their 14-2 run, the Warriors have only played in a handful of close games, winning 10 of those games by 5 or more points. Jokic, Murray and Gordon are all listed questionable heading into this one. The situation and the injury report really favor Golden State tonight. The Nuggets aren’t very good defensively, and they’re giving up more than 116 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Warriors. Lay the points with Golden State while they play their best basketball of the season
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Tennessee vs. Florida
Bet: Florida -5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Tennessee Volunteers advanced to the SEC Championship with an upset win over the Auburn Tigers on Saturday. The Vols didn’t shoot well from the perimeter, but they connected on nearly 54% of their shots from inside the arc, shot 93% from the free throw line and gathered 10 offensive rebounds. It was a close game throughout for the Volunteers, which cannot be said for the Gators. Florida dominated Alabama in the 2nd half of Saturday’s SEC semifinal, outsourcing the Tide 57-37 in the final 20 minutes. The Gators shot 55% from inside the arc and 44% from beyond the arc in the win, while also winning the rebounding battle and the turnover battle. This is a fascinating matchup because these teams met twice during the regular season and each team won in blowout fashion. Florida dominated the first matchup at home 73-43, while Tennessee exacted revenge with a 64-44 win in Knoxville about 1 month later. This time around, oddsmakers price Florida about 5 points better than the Vols, and we agree with that valuation. The Gators can do it all. They are highly efficient on both ends of the floor, and they have elite size to control the boards and create second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds. They are 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency over the last month (Bart Torvik), and their defense is top 30 in that span as well, both better marks than Tennessee. The Vols can look lost at times offensively, and extended stretches of poor offense are not ideal against a Florida team that can score in bunches no matter the pace at which the game is being played. Tennessee is likely locked into a 2-seed after their run in the SEC Tournament, but Florida can secure their 1-seed with a win, and their offense will help carry the way. The Volunteers are 18th in offensive efficiency, while the Gators are 3rd. Tennessee cannot rely on Zeigler to lead the way in scoring, the 5'9 guard only scores 13.1 PPG, and cannot carry the offensive load. Florida is rolling offensively, they just scored 104 points in regulation against Alabama, they can fill it up at will. They have three guards in Clayton, Richard and Martin who have all scored at least 16 points in both SEC Tournament games. Florida is too deep, and the better offensive team will carry the way in the final. Look for the Gators to pick apart Tennessee’s defense on the perimeter with the shooting of Walter Clayton, Will Richard and Alijah Martin and win by margin in Nashville.
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Tennessee Volunteers vs Auburn Tigers
Bet: Tennessee Volunteers +4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
These teams only met once this season, and Auburn snuck away with a two point win at home. They are now at a neutral site, and Tennessee is looking for payback, and their elite defense will help carry the way. Auburn puts a lot of pressure on Broome to create, the senior big man leads the team in assists despite the Tigers having several playmakers available. Auburn is bringing Baker-Mazara and Pettiford off the bench, despite those two being two of the best shot creators on the team. Tennessee is 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, with two players who made the All-Defensive Team in Zeigler and Mashack. If this game is won because someone gets hot from the outside, it will be Chaz Lanier, as he has over 30 more made threes than anyone on Auburn. Tennessee is fighting for a higher seed, while Auburn is content where they are, the Volunteers will cover here and also win SU. Take Tennessee to cover the spread as our NCAAB GAME OF THE YEAR Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
Bet: Michigan State -2.5/-115 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
These two met a little less than two weeks ago, a game Michigan State won by nine points as -4.5 favorites at home. The Badgers may have played their hand against UCLA, seeing as that might be one of the only apt strategies to beat this Spartans freight train. Tom Izzo routinely has an answer for everything and if Wisconsin can’t get good looks from the outside, they’re going to be in trouble. The Badgers were 5-32 from three-point range when they met Michigan State just a few weeks back. The Spartans did an outstanding job at limiting good looks and Wisconsin shot just 33.8% from the field in the game. Michigan State also did an excellent job on Tonje, holding him to 11 points and 3-13 shooting. Obviously, the Spartans are rolling with a full head of steam right now. All but one game in the eight-game winning streak was won by at least eight points. Michigan State is 3-2 ATS in their last five versus Wisconsin. Take the Spartans to cover.
Creighton vs. St. John's
Bet: Creighton +6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
These teams met twice during the regular season, and they split the games, with each school winning its home contest. Creighton won 57-56 on December 31st, while St. John’s rebounded with a 79-73 home win on February 16th. This is going to be an absolute slugfest, and we have no interest in laying so many points in a championship game. Obviously, Creighton has already beat St. John’s once this year, and we think that they’re live to win this game outright as well. The biggest issue we have with the Red Storm is that they don’t shoot the three-pointer well. They’re just 340th in the nation at 30.0%. In terms of adjusted offensive efficiency, they’re just 69th, averaging only 113.5 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, that’s the worst offense of the top 39 teams at KenPom. This team isn’t built to stretch out big leads, and we like Creighton to keep this game close.
Alabama vs. Florida
Bet: Florida -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
These two teams squared off just 10 days ago, a game the Gators won by five points as +3.5 underdogs on the road. Coincidentally, they met on the 5th and 15th of March last season as well and Florida stepped over the Tide to get the SEC Finals last season. In reading the scores from Friday, the Crimson Tide’s win definitely jumps off the page. However, Florida’s dominating performance was even more impressive. In their regular season meeting, both teams shot the ball extremely well, but the Gators were able to gain their greatest advantage on the blocks, outrebounding the Tide by 15. That is a massive swing against the only team in the country who averages more rebounds than you do. Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last four against ‘Bamma and 6-4 in their last 10 against them. Take the Gators to cover.
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St. Louis vs. Loyola-Chicago
Bet: Loyola-Chicago -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Loyola Chicago ended its regular season winning each of the last two and seven of the last eight while going 7-1 against the spread over that same span of seven games. Loyola Chicago has held its opponents to 57 points or less in two of the last four games. The Ramblers' offense is 98th in field goal shooting percentage and 77th in three-point shooting percentage. St Louis is only 12-18 ATS in its 30 games with a betting line and has covered just one game out of the last three. St Louis split its two games during the regular season with Loyola Chicago, with each winning on its home court, but on a neutral court, the Ramblers will use strong shooting and solid defense to pick up a victory on Friday.
Mount St. Mary’s vs Merrimack
Bet: Mount St. Mary’s +9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Another conference tournament game that doesn’t make much sense. Yes, Merrimack has the rest advantage, but you can argue Mount St. Mary’s has been the better team this season. Mount St. Mary’s also beat Merrimack in the only game this season as a nine-point underdog. Mount St. Mary’s is a profitable 19-11-1 ATS on the season and has covered four straight games which includes a nice upset yesterday against Marist. Merrimack hasn’t been great in the favorite role, which includes recent losses to Rider, Sacred Heart, and Marist. Despite the conference standing the Mountaineers are the better team in this game. Look for Mount St. Mary's to do the work on both sides of the ball in this game. The Mountaineers will do the work Friday leading to cover and maybe win SU. We are grabbing the points with Mount St. Mary’s on Friday night.
Marquette vs. St. John's
Bet: St. John's -3.5/-115 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Winner
The Marquette Golden Eagles and the St. John’s Red Storm will meet inside Madison Square Garden on Friday evening in the Big East Conference semifinals. Marquette is the #5 seed in the tournament and beat #4 Xavier ( a game they should have lost ) to advance to the semis. St. John’s won the regular-season title to secure the #1 seed. The Red Storm easily beat Butler in game one on the conference tournament and are favored to advance to the championship game. The spread is currently -4 in favor of St. John’s, and we expect the favorites to cover. The Red Storm lost just 2 games throughout Big East play and should be punish Marquette on the glass. St. John’s went 18-2 in conference play and is riding 7-game winning streak. The Johnnies are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, which should give them a great advantage in this matchup. According to KenPom, St. John’s offense is ranked #9 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, while Marquette’s defense is ranked #254. In their last matchup on February 4, St. John’s out-rebounded Marquette 50 to 28, and we see that rebound margin happening again. We are taking St. John’s to win and cover.
Connecticut (UCONN) vs. Creighton
Bet: Connecticut (UCONN) -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
The Big East tournament semifinals will take place on Friday, and the nightcap at Madison Square Garden features a pair of familiar foes in the UConn Huskies and Creighton Bluejays. It’s no secret that UConn has gone through a tumultuous regular season, thanks in large part to injuries, inconsistent play and a whole lot of outside noise. And while that noise around the program might not quiet down anytime soon, the Huskies are pretty clearly playing their best basketball of the season in recent weeks, and it all started with a win over Creighton back on February 11 in Omaha. On the other side, the Bluejays had a very strong first half of conference play, but they haven’t exactly played anywhere near their best basketball of late. Creighton is extremely fortunate to even be in this game after it fell behind by 17 points in the second half to lowly DePaul on Friday, The Bluejays were even down by 11 with just over 90 seconds remaining, before Gregg McDermott’s team pulled off a furious comeback to force overtime. From there, Creighton would need to play another 10 minutes before the Bluejays eventually secured a 4-point victory in double overtime. UConn didn’t exactly have the same level of stress in its win over Villanova, in which the Huskies used a dominant second half effort to dispatch the upstart Wildcats. There is a clear discrepancy in effort expended between these teams on Thursday, and we do think that will bleed into Friday’s contest a bit. UConn has struggled with Creighton in the past, and that’s mainly due to how the Bluejays defend the basket with Ryan Kalkbrenner patrolling the paint. However, the Creighton big man just played a whopping 49 minutes on Friday, so he’ll undoubtedly need a bit more rest than usual given that this game is on such short rest. That’s a clear advantage for a Huskies team that is already so effective and moving and cutting without the basketball, as we saw multiple guards, forwards and even centers move without the ball and get a layup as a result against Villanova. UConn’s also been shooting it a bit better from beyond the arc of late, thanks to the emerge of Solo Ball and the reinvigoration of Alex Karaban in his final season. Creighton is not a team that excels at defending the arc (114th in 3-point percentage allowed since January 1), and the Bluejays are more than happy to play drop coverage and give their opponents open midrange jumpers as well. As long as the Huskies can play the game at their pace and make the open looks that Creighton will give them, they should win and cover the short number in this game.
Clemson vs Louisville
Bet: Clemson -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The 2nd of the 2 ACC Tournament semifinals will be played between the Louisville Cardinals and the Clemson Tigers on Friday night. Both of these teams played with their food on Thursday. Louisville trailed by as many as 15 against Stanford before storming back in the 2nd half. The Cardinals flirted with covering the 10.5-point spread late in the game, but as soon as they had a multiple-possession lead, Stanford closed the gap. Meanwhile, Clemson started hot against SMU, but the Mustangs never went away. They forced the Tigers into some ugly turnovers, but ultimately couldn’t overcome a disastrous 1/14 performance from the 3-point line. These teams played just once during the regular season. Louisville won by 10 at home after Clemson led by as many as 6 in the 1st half. J’Vonne Hadley scored 32 points for the Cards in what was not only his best game of the season, but of his career. This time around, we are not convinced he and the Cardinals will have that same success, even if Clemson won’t have the services of Dillon Hunter (hand injury). The Tigers have a sizable advantage in the front court in this matchup, as Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin should be able to control the glass against James Scott and Noah Waterman. Furthermore, we trust Clemson’s guards a little bit more than Louisville’s. Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards dribble the ball way too long at times, trying to create things that are not ther, which often results in forced shots or turnovers. That’s not a recipe for success against a Clemson defense that is in the 100th percentile in efficiency over its last 5 games and leads the ACC in forced turnover rate. Furthermore, Clemson excels at limiting transition opportunities, where Louisville thrives Also, Louisville may not be at full strength in this contest, as guard Reyne Smith (13.4 PPG) has been sidelined with an ankle injury. While both teams are playing well, we just can’t pass up on taking Clemson in a pick ‘em spot against a short-handed Louisville side. The Tigers boast a top-20 defense, and with one less guard that they have to worry about, they’re primed to make life difficult on the Cardinals offensively. Louisville’s offense is already lacking, as they’re ranked outside the top 100 in both field goal rate and three-point shooting, while Clemson is a top-60 school in both categories. We have to ride with the Tigers in this one.
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Mississippi St vs. Missouri
Bet: Missouri -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The lone regular season meeting between these two was all Missouri as they rolled the Bulldogs by 27 points as +6.5 underdogs on the road. The Tigers clamped down on the defensive end, holding Mississippi State to 36.4% shooting while recording eight steals and three blocks. The shot daggers from the outside as well, draining 15-32 three pointers in the win. On defense, the Bulldogs have had their issues with the high scorers of the SEC, most recently allowing 111 points to Alabama’s top-ranked offense. Against a more similar offense to Mizzou, Mississippi State yielded 81 points to Florida. The Missouri offense is going to be willing to let the Bulldogs have their shots, knowing they do not have the depth to keep up over the course of a full game. The Bulldogs come into this game off an easy win against LSU, but beating the 15-seed is not the same as taking on the 7-seed 24 hours later. Josh Hubbard is an excellent player, but the Bulldogs are too reliant on their 5'11 guard to generate all their offense. Hubbard had 26 against LSU, and no other player had 10. This works against the bottom teams in the conference, but will not work against the Tigers who are ranked 21st in the nation. Missouri is 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency, they score the ball well and will not have a problem outpacing Hubbard and the rest of Mississippi State. Mississippi State has had a bit of a lock on this series over the past few years but the regular season meeting between these two signaled a shift. Take the Tigers to cover.
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Northwestern vs. Minnesota
Bet: Northwestern -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Winner
These two met near the end of February in a game Northwestern won by 12 points as +2 underdogs on the road. Both teams come in on two-game losing streaks, but the Golden Gophers struggles extend back a bit further. The Minnesota defense showed some weaknesses over the last few weeks, allowing 74 points or more in three of their last four games. The Wildcats were one of those teams, with 75 points. They shot 49.1% from the field and 50% from three-point range in the win and they only turned the ball over eight times. Northwestern are well-coached and are not going to give the game away. Martinelli is one of the best players in the league and is very crafty. He had 29 points in that first match up against Minnesota and that's without Barnhizer and Leach, on the road. They also had 17 assists and eight turnovers in that game, which is how they win games. Northwestern is a much better 3-point shooting team than Minnesota, and it averages nearly five more points per game. Minnesota allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three, highest among Power Conference defenses (league Avg: 35%). Northwestern wins and covers another here.
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Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Bet: Georgia -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
There are many similarities between these two teams. They are both ranked in the 30s in KenPom, they are both on the bubble, and are both led by a freshman, but there is one major difference between the programs, and that is momentum. Georgia comes into this game having won all of their last four, and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Silas Demary is scoring in bunches, he has over 15 in each of his last eight games, and has the strength and athleticism to overpower to Oklahoma guards. Georgia has a win over #3 Florida in their recent win streak, and also took down #6 Kentucky earlier in the season. Oklahoma has only won three of their last ten, and all of their 12 losses came against SEC schools, including Georgia. The Bulldogs are 25th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and will slow down this Oklahoma attack that is too perimeter oriented. Georgia should be able to dominate this game on the offensive glass as they are ranked #19 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage while Oklahoma’s defense is ranked #273 in that category. Take Georgia to win and cover.
Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Bet: Virginia ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
It’s Championship Week, and there’ll be plenty of excitement on Wednesday as the ACC tournament continues with Virginia and Georgia Tech taking the court. The last time these two teams faced, Virginia walked away with a 75-61 victory. Virginia finished 9th in the ACC this season, averaging 64.9 ppg and giving up 66.8 ppg. As for Georgia Tech, it finished eighth in the ACC, averaging 73.7 ppg and giving up 72.6 ppg. Virginia is a slight underdog heading into this matchup, and we think they have the best chance to play Duke next and here’s why. We think Virginia’s shot making ability gives them a slight edge in this matchup. Virginia was fourth in the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage this season at 37.6%; Georgia Tech sits in 10th, where it hits 33.9% of their shots from deep. Another huge advantage Virginia has is from the free throw line. Virginia is shooting 75.1% from the line while Georgia Tech is shooting 68.1% from the free throw line, which could play a big role in this game. It is true that Georgia Tech has the rebounding advantage in this matchup; it averages 40.7 rebounds per game compared to Virginia’s 31.9. At the end of the day, we think Virginia will find success against this Georgia Tech defense that allows their opponents to shoot 35% from deep, plus Virginia’s stingy defense will be able to slow down the Yellow Jackets offense. Virginia has won the last 10 head-t0-head meetings, including a 14-point victory last month. We expect Virginia's shot making ability to be the difference. They have a strong advantage from three-point range and from the charity stripe and we can't go against recent history here, until the Yellow Jackets prove themselves worthy. Take Virginia.
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Maine vs Vermont
Bet: Vermont -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Catamounts are on a nice run lately and playing well. In their weekend win over New Hampshire, Vermont started slowly but ended up shooting 52.1 percent from the field with a 36-24 rebounding advantage. The 13 turnovers really hampered the Catamounts though—especially early. Still, it was a solid comeback win to extend the streak to 10 games. Vermont managed to win both matchups between these teams this year—both within the win streak. First was a 55-49 home win on February 1, then a 65-61 road victory two weeks later. The Catamounts weren’t exactly overwhelming on offense in that road win, but still pulled off 47.9 percent from the floor. Vermont can keep a lid on the turnovers in this third matchup (they had 12 in the road win), so we like the Catamounts to notch another victory in a tournament setting. Maine has lost 28 of its last 37 road games against Conference opponents. Maine has lost the first half in nine of its last 10 Conference Tournament games. Vermont is 30-0 SU against Maine since 2013, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
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Orlando Magic vs. Houston Rockets
Bet: Houston Rockets -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Orlando Magic have not been the same since the Jalen Suggs injury, they recently lost five in a row, including games against the Raptors and Bulls. The Magic do not have enough outside shooting to survive against stronger teams on a nightly basis. Suggs is not an elite shooter, but he was their best outside shooter this year, and now they are limited with deep threats. The Mo Wagner injury should not go unmentioned either, he was their fourth leading scorer, meaning they are without two of their top four bucket getters. Houston will be without Thompson, but they are deep at the forward spot and Jabari Smith Jr. will slide right back into the starting lineup without a problem. Orlando just beat Milwaukee, they will not keep up that level of play here. Take the Rockets to cover.
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Youngstown State vs. Cleveland State
Bet: Cleveland State -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Youngstown was able to get to this point without their best player, but the road will end here, as beating Cleveland State without EJ Farmer is too tall of a task. Farmer has been out with an injury, he leads the team in scoring and made Second Team All Conference. The Penguins are not deep enough to replace his production against the top teams in the league. Cleveland State has three players averaging double figures, and can score in multiple ways as Arnett controls the paint, Staveski bombs away from deep, and Smith is a lightning quick guard who can get to the basket. Also, Cleveland State has gotten back to what they do best, play shutdown defense. In their last two games they’ve allowed an average of 60 points, forcing 15.5 turnovers per game in the process. Youngstown State was just put to the test against Fort Wayne, the second-best defense in the league, and they were held five points under their season average. The Vikings are going to apply a lot more pressure than the Mastodons did. The worst unit in this game analytically is Youngstown's offense, they rank 262nd in offensive efficiency and that factors in all the games that Farmer played in. The Penguins will not be able to keep up here. Take Cleveland State to cover.
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Troy vs. James Madison
Bet: Troy -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Troy Trojans and James Madison Dukes are very similar offensively as Troy averaged 73.0 points per game during the regular season and James Madison averaged 74.4 points per game. However, the big difference is at the defensive end of the court, Troy allowed an average of only 65.3 points per game and held Old Dominion to 59 points on Saturday, while James Madison allowed an average of 70.3 points per game during the regular season. James Madison beat Troy 64-61 during the regular season. However, that game was played at James Madison and Sunday’s semifinal game will be played on a neutral court. Troy will be playing for a second consecutive night, but James Madison has not played for over a week, and that could affect how the Dukes play especially early in the game. Including Saturday’s win, Troy has covered the number in each of its last four games and in six of the last seven, while James Madison is 1-4 ATS in its last 5.
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Ohio State vs. Indiana
Bet: Indiana -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Emotion will be on the side of the Hoosiers in Mike Woodson's final regular season game at home as coach of the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers also have recent momentum on their side. They've defeated the Buckeyes in four straight head-to-head meetings and five of six. The Hoosiers are the stronger team on the glass and the more efficient team, ranked fourth in the conference in turnover margin. The Hoosiers are also 13-4 at home this season and have covered the spread in six of their last ten. A win pushes the Hoosiers to 19 wins and pushes them closer to the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Buckeyes have gone just 4-6 ATS in their last ten games and failed to cover the spread in four of their last five. The Hoosiers will ride emotion and motivation to a big home win to close out the regular season. Take Indiana.
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Illinois State vs. Belmont
Bet: Belmont -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Bruins and Redbirds both won four of their last five games. Belmont has the edge here because they’re shooting the ball better, making over 46 percent of their shots and 42 percent of their three-pointers on the road, while the Redbirds made 43 percent of their shots in their last three games. They’ve also done a better job at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They’re the better rebounding team, and they grab more than eight offensive rebounds per game, which will give them more scoring chances. They do a good job of protecting the ball and don’t give up many easy-scoring chances. The Redbirds usually play well defensively, but they struggled in recent games and gave up over 80 points per game in two games against the Bruins this season, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bruins. Go with Belmont to cover the spread.
Murray State vs. Bradley
Bet: Bradley -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Bradley won both meetings against Murray State this season and showed their ability to win in different ways. The Braves played lockdown defensive in the first meeting holding Murray State to 61 at home. In the second game, the Braves won a high-scoring shootout 85-83 and made a big shot after a big shot down the stretch. Murray State has been a solid defensive team this season but they have struggled to put points on the board. The Racers are last in the MVC in field goal percentage and second to last in three-point percentage. Bradley has been a top offensive and defensive team in the MVC and this team is built for the postseason. The Braves won the rebound battle in both matchups with Murray State and will control the paint in this game. Murray State doesn't have the offensive weapons to win this game and Bradley will cover the spread and advance.
Western Michigan (WMU) vs. Bowling Green
Bet: Bowling Green -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Bowling Green has won seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between the two schools. They have also covered the number in each of the last two games. Bowling Green comes in with four straight wins and seven in their last ten. They have also gone 7-3 ATS in that time as well. The Broncos are the stronger defensive team, ranked fourth in the conference in points allowed per game. They are fourth in 3-point defense as well. The Falcons are also coming off a dominant performance defensively in their last game. Western Michigan has gone just 5-10 on the road this season and just 5-5 in their last ten games. The Falcons will close with another win and get to .500 in conference play as both teams ready for the MAAC Tournament. Take Bowling Green.
The Citadel vs VMI
Bet: VMI -5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
VMI won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including both meetings this season. There is no team in the country with a longer losing skid at the moment, and we don`t see how The Citadel will suddenly start playing better and secure its first win since early December, let alone in the conference tournament. VMI should be good for some 80 points here, which will be more than enough to secure a comfortable victory. VMI covered the spread in four of the last five H2Hs, and we are backing the Keydets to do it again on Friday and advance to the next round, where UNC Greensboro awaits. VMI has covered the Spread in 18 of its last 28 games, while The Citadel has only covered the Spread in 9 of its previous 26 games. Final Score Prediction, VMI Keydets win and cover ATS 80-65.
Pepperdine vs. Portland
Bet: Portland -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
These teams are remarkably similar when you get down to looking at the numbers. Both teams are slightly below average on the offensive end of the floor while they struggle on the defensive end of the floor this season. Pepperdine has struggled at the free throw line, while Portland is very good in that department this season. While Pepperdine is slightly better on the defensive end of the floor, they seemed unable to slow Portland’s attack in either meeting. The Pilots won 84-64 on the road on February 1st, before adding an 87-67 home win just last Thursday, February 27th. Seeing how the Pilots won both meetings by 20 points, there’s no reason to have faith in the Waves here. Furthermore, the Pilots finished the season on a moderately successful 5-3 run. The Waves went 0-5 to close out the campaign. Portland is slightly better from three-point range (34.2% to 34.0%) and from the free-throw line (78.0% to 71.1%). Take Portland as they earn their third win in as many meetings this season.
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New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Bet: Los Angeles Lakers -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Push
The marquee game in the association on Thursday takes place in Los Angeles, where the Lakers will host the New York Knicks in a battle of a pair of historic NBA franchises at the Staples Center. From a situational perspective, this is a tough spot for the Knicks, as New York just had to play a physical game in a loss to the Warriors at Madison Square Garden, and will now be making the cross-country to play a Lakers team that has played 5 consecutive games at home, dating back to February 25. What’s also a problem for the Knicks is the injury report, as New York could be without Karl-Anthony Towns (personal reasons), OG Anunoby (thumb), Precious Achiuwa (hamstring) and Mitchell Robinson (ankle). While we do expect at least a couple of these key pieces to suit up, New York will likely be compromised in some form on both sides of the ball. That doesn’t bode well against a Lakers team that is firing on all cylinders of late, especially at home. Los Angeles was already exceeding expectations a bit this season, but the Lakers’ aspirations were turned up a notch following the acquisition of Luka Doncic in February. It took a few games, but the superstar guard has meshed well with LeBron James and the Lakers offense is starting to look like a well-oiled machine. That spells trouble for a Knicks defense that is already the weak link of the team and has struggled mightily against high-level competition to this point in the season. New York already struggles with protecting the rim and defending the perimeter, and those issues would only be exacerbated without the likes of Anunoby or Robinson in the lineup. Not being able to defend well in rotation is exactly what you don’t want against a Lakers offense that will spread you out and cause mismatches all over the floor with the high basketball IQ of Doncic and James. We have no interest in stepping in front of this Lakers train that continues to pick up steam. They’re 17-3 SU in their last 20 games, and all 17 of those wins have come by 4+ points. Included in that stretch is a 128-112 rout of the Knicks in the Big Apple back on February 1st. Additionally, Los Angeles has been excellent at home this year, going 24-7 with an average margin of victory of +5.5 points. The Lakers are 20-11 ATS (64.5%) at home as well, so it’s safe to say they enjoy playing in front of their home fans. Between Los Angeles’ red-hot form and New York’s lack of defense (23rd in defensive efficiency), we like the Lakers to stretch out a multi-possession win at home.
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Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Bet: Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5/-118 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
Coming off of a heartbreaking, buzzer beating loss to Tennessee in Knoxville on Saturday, Alabama basketball returns home for a key matchup against Florida in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night in the final home game of the season for the Crimson Tide. It will be senior night for Mark Sears, Grant Nelson, Cliff Omoruyi, and Chris Youngblood. A win by Alabama would clinch a double bye in the SEC Tournament and ensure that Alabama is on the other side of the bracket from SEC regular season champion, Auburn. Both of these teams come into this matchup having fantastic seasons, but Alabama will have the home-court advantage here. The Crimson Tide have lost three of their last five games, but two of those losses were on the road and the other came against Auburn at home. Alabama is the highest-scoring team in the country, averaging 91.0 points per game (which is nearly four points more than No. 2 in the country Gonzaga) and has the 28th best field goal shooting percentage at 48.3%. Florida lost their last road game against Georgia but bounced back with a great performance against A&M. This should be a very entertaining matchup between two teams that know how to score, but Florida has had some struggles in their last two road games and this is Mark Sears' last game in Coleman Coliseum and you have to figure the Crimson Tide will have a little extra juice for this one. We expect a close game, but Alabama pulls it out and earns the double bye in the SEC Tournament. Take Alabama at home here.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Bet: Green Bay Packers -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The Green Bay Packers committed four turnovers and missed two field goals and still only lost to the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings 31-29 last week. We think that loss is keeping this line lower than it should be, and we'll take advantage and back the Packers as mere 3-point favorites over the lowly Los Angeles Rams this week. Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Rams. They are without their two best weapons in Kupp and Nacua. They should be 0-4 right now but managed to upset the 49ers despite getting outgained 425 to 296 in that game. They are still getting too much respect for that win this week. Keep in mind the Rams lost 41-10 at Arizona the previous week and that loss looks even worse now. They lost 24-18 at Chicago last week in what was the most efficient game of the season from Caleb Williams, who looked lost until he got to go up against this awful Los Angeles defense. The Rams rank 31st in scoring defense at 28.8 points per game, 31st in total defense at 385.2 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play allowed. That makes this a very bad matchup for them going up against a Packers team that ranks 3rd in total offense at 410.0 yards per game and 3rd at 6.5 yards per play. This despite being without Jordan Love for two games. Now Love has a game under his belt returning from a knee injury, and early reports are he looks great in practice this week. It was vintage Love leading the Packers back from a 28-0 deficit to the Vikings to only lose by 2. We are confident he and the Packers are going to light up this Rams defense, and we just don't think Stafford and company are going to be able to match them score for score with such limited weapons on offense right now. Bet the Packers Sunday.
Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders
Bet: Washington Commanders -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The Washington Commanders will be looking to continue their scorching-hot start to the 2024 NFL season when they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. Nobody was forecasting this before the year started, but Washington is an absolute wagon — at least on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Jayden Daniels, the #2 overall pick, is setting the league on fire in the early stages of his rookie campaign, evoking memories of Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud in 2023. Daniels (897 passing yards, 218 rushing yards, 7 total touchdowns) has his team at 3-1 and riding a 3-game winning streak. The Commanders have scored 38 and 42 points in their last 2 outings. At the other end of the spectrum is Cleveland signal-caller Deshaun Watson, who appears to be washed up and the recipient of what is arguably the worst contract in all of sports. The Browns are 1-3 and on the fast track to nowhere. Nick Chubb is close to returning, but he isn’t going to play this weekend and an addition to the roster at running back isn’t the answer for this franchise in the first place. Given that Watson can no longer make something out of nothing at this point in his career, he needs help from his pass-catchers. And he isn’t getting it. Nobody on the team has reached the 200-yard receiving mark through 4 games. Anything other than a comfortable win for Washington would be a surprise.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Baltimore Ravens -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
It will be an AFC North showdown when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon in Week 5 of the 2024 NFL campaign. Although the Baltimore Ravens are a modest 2-2 through 4 weeks, more than a few folks out there are wondering if this is the best team in football. They certainly looked like it on Monday Night Football this past week, blasting the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills 35-10. Baltimore is currently the 3rd-favorite to win the Super Bowl and its odds would probably be even better if it had not lost a Week 1 thriller against the Kansas City Chiefs when Isaiah Likely’s toe on a potential game-winning touchdown catch was just barely out of bounds. But following a rough first 2 weeks, Lamar Jackson and company have looked great. Jackson (7 total touchdowns, 1 interception) is the reigning NFL MVP and is currently the 3rd-favorite to win it again. We just don’t think this version of the Bengals can quite keep up with Jackson, Derrick Henry and the rest of the Ravens’ flock. Cincinnati should be better that its record, but 1-3 is 1-3. This team is finding a way to lose football games, and when you are getting only 2.5 points, losing games you have a chance to win can also be costly against the spread. Joe Burrow is playing well, but with Joe Mixon gone the Bengals have not had much of a rushing attack so far in 2024. Baltimore already boasts by far the best rushing defense in the entire NFL, so you can pretty much guarantee that Cincy’s offense is going to be 1-dimensional on Sunday. Between past performances and five banged-up defensive players (four in the front seven), the Bengals don't have a chance at slowing down the Ravens' offense. Baltimore will gash them on the ground all afternoon. Controlling the clock and putting a big number on the scoreboard will be the start of a dominant Ravens win. Cincinnati having to throw the ball all afternoon will give Baltimore's pass rushers a chance to pin their ears back and attack. Sacks and forcing turnovers will keep the Bengals' offense in check. Expect the Ravens to cover the spread comfortably in Cincinnati.
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
Bet: Buffalo Bills ML/+100 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Houston Texans aren't equipped to take advantage of Buffalo's shoddy run defense. Especially not with their top two RBs banged up. Their offense will continue to be middling this week, although they can't afford that. The Bills will get a ton of pressure to stop Houston's drives. Buffalo is a run-first team and the Texans are allowing 4.7 yards per carry. James Cook and Josh Allen will find success with their legs, opening up the rest of Buffalo's playbook. Unlike last week, the Bills will get into a groove, leading to another 30+ points. That will be enough to leave with a road win.
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SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals
Bet: Louisville Cardinals -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
Louisville outplayed Notre Dame, but lost the game by a touchdown last week because of turnovers and going 1/5 on 4th down. They had 3 drives into ND territory resulted in 0 points just not taking advantage of field position. SMU getting pretty lucky with 5 non offensive TD’s this season including 3 in their win 2 weeks ago vs TCU in a game they were outgained. Last week they played a bad FSU team and picked up with win and the Mustangs were +2 turnovers (+6 turnovers their last 2 games). Louisville has impressive numbers at +205 YPG and +3 YPP margin. SMU relies heavily on the run having rushed for over 200 yards in each of their last 2 games vs TCU and FSU. Both those defenses rank 95th or lower at stopping the run so the Mustangs success on the ground wasn’t a surprise. In this game they run into a Louisville defense that has been stifling vs the run allowing just 2.8 YPC on the season (15th best in the country). Last week, a solid Notre Dame running attack was barely able to reach 100 yards on 31 carries. SMU has been at home since Aug 24th and barely beat Nevada in that game (their only true road game) as a huge favorite. SMU is a a bit overvalued right now as we look a few weeks ago Louisville was a double digit favorite over a solid Georgia Tech team and now laying under a TD here vs the Stangs. Louisville has covered the spread every time they have been listed as favorites this year. We trust the Cardinals not to fall again, especially at home and with the risk of back-to-back losses.
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Coco Gauff vs. Paula Badosa
Bet: Paula Badosa to win the match/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Badosa isn’t slow off the blocks in Beijing. After struggling to conserve her top form, the Spanish star found her momentum during her Northern America hard-court swing. She pocketed her fifth WTA title in two years at the Citi Open and later finished as a quarter-finalist at the US Open. Her impressive performances have thrilled the Chinese crowd all week in Beijing. Boasting an aggressive baseline game, Badosa is quick off the mark and taunts rivals with her diverse shot-making skills. Badosa’s powerful forehand coupled with a gigantic serve does the job well for her on the court. In her last encounter, the No. 15 seed clinched 78% of wins on her first serve, all the while firing 10 aces. Gauff, on the other hand, is seemingly evading living the shadow of her former self. After a disheartening string of losses to lower-ranked players and later, prematurely ending her Cincinnati Masters and US Open title defense, the American sensation was off to a horrible start against Starodubtseva. She coughed up seven double faults and 17 unforced errors in the first set. After parting ways with ex-coach Brad Gilbert, the 20-year-old commenced her newfound partnership with Matt Daly. A specialist in racket grip correction, Daly has low-key enhanced Gauff’s error-prone serve and extreme western forehand grip. The young talent flaunts her athletic prowess by firing quick reactions on shots and efficiently gluing competitors far off the baseline. However, Badosa enjoys an upper hand in their rivalry. The Spaniard has won two of their three duels on hard-courts without dropping a set. Due to her improved form and triumphant results, the event’s last four will see the see the Spanish star advance.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -2/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Steelers continue to live a charmed life here in 2024 and look well-positioned to move to 4-0 on Sunday. The Colts are already a flawed team and they'll have to play without a number of key contributors on both sides of the football on Sunday. The Steelers offense wasn't never going to be explosive under the guidance of ultra-conservative offensive coordinator Arthur Smith but they're certainly in an 'all systems go' type of spot against a Colts defense that hasn't got a sniff in terms of stopping the run this season. This is a nightmare matchup for Colts QB Anthony Richardson behind a banged-up offensive line against at truly elite Steelers defensive front. You have to figure the injury bug will bite the Steelers defense at some point but it hasn't happened yet and that means Pittsburgh can once again pin its ears back and go after the opposing QB on Sunday. The Colts were fortunate to get a win last week as the Bears simply committed too many mistakes to secure a road victory. The Colts have also been careless with the ball, with Richardson throwing six interceptions in three games. The Steelers get a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and they average two takeaways on the road, so expect them to bottle up Indianapolis’ offense in this game. Go with Pittsburgh to cover the spread.
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Georgia vs Alabama
Bet: Alabama ML/+100 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This is the first regular-season meeting between these teams since 2020 but the last three meetings between these two have come in championship situations: twice in the SEC title game and once in the National title game in 2022. Bama won the most recent meeting, 27-24, in last season’s conference title game. Alabama as an underdog at home is a wild thought to process, they have not been a underdog at home for a 114 games, dating back to 2007 season. The underdog has been money in the bank in the Georgia-Alabama games. Chalk is 3-9 ATS over the last 12 games of the series and the Tide have covered the L/3 in this series. Going into this matchup Alabama is the much healthier team and playing here at home have an edge. Georgia's offense has also been less than inspiring as is evident by not scoring a touchdown in the first half of two of their first three games, and put just 13 points on the board last time out vs Kentucky. The Alabama quarterback played mistake-free against the Bulldogs last season, throwing for two TDs in the win. Beck threw for 243 yards against the Tide but could not find the end zone. As much as the spotlight will be on the QB matchup, this one will come down to defense, and Alabama’s passing defense this season is insanely good, which negates a big portion of what the Bulldogs will want to do. Georgia in September games are 0-6 ATS dating back to the 2023 season. Georgia after allowing 14 points or less in their last game are 0-6 ATS dating back to last season. CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points are 37-12 ATS dating back to the 1992 season. The Alabama Crimson Tide have won eight of the last nine meetings between these two schools and had outscored their first three opponents by a combined score of 147-26. Take the Crimson Tide to win SU.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Push
New York has dropped the last 12 meetings with Dallas in games that Prescott has started: their win in that stretch came in a game that Andy Dalton played in back in January 2021. Dallas played well in the fourth quarter but they were dismal in the first three quarters of the game against the Ravens. The Cowboys are much better offensively and they should be able to take advantage of the depleted Giants' secondary, considering New York won’t have Jackson or Phillips at the cornerback position. Lamb, who was sporadic last week, will have a big game on the road.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
Bet: New Orleans Saints -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
Before the season, we`d have locked this one up in the win column for the Eagles, and they would have likely opened up as a five-point favorite, at least. Things change fast in the NFL, however. The Saints offense looks like the one they likely imagined last season when Derek Carr arrived in town. Carr looks to have completely mastered the offense in the offseason, and the Saints have been wracking up numbers both through the air and on the ground. That doesn't bode well for an Eagles team that has had a hard time getting pressure on the quarterback this season. One week after looking nervous and shaky in the pocket, Kirk Cousins torched the Eagles' secondary thanks to having time to spare in the pocket. Carr will have the benefit of utilizing RB Kamara against what has been the NFL's worst run defense through two weeks. The Falcons gouged the Eagles for 5.4 yards per carry on Monday night and the Saints will surely try to play off of that advantage. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have yet to uncork their new ground game with Barkley in the backfield. He has had his moments, but the Eagles have yet to maintain it and are just 18th in the league in yards per attempt. If they can't get things going on the ground, the Saints' #3 pass rush will cause nightmares for Eagles QB Hurts. Hurts will also certainly miss his favorite target, WR A.J. Brown, who is expected to miss his second straight week.
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TCU Horned Frogs vs SMU Mustangs
Bet: TCU Horned Frogs -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
We have a showdown in the Metroplex on Saturday afternoon, and we have your TCU Horned Frogs vs SMU Mustangs prediction. This game will be played in the blazing Texas afternoon sun, with a high in the mid to upper 90s, so watch for cramps, tired players, and lots of scoring opportunities. Still, this game is very simple for us. We think one of these teams is pretty darn good yet underrated, while the other team is bad but overrated. The bad team is SMU, which we will unpack in a moment. Home field should not be enough to help them overcome their deficiencies, and TCU should come in and take this crosstown rivalry game. So why are we so down on SMU? This is supposed to be a team with a high-powered offense. Instead, they are a fast offense, but not a good offense. They play in a hurry, but they seem to think the goal is “fast” rather than “effective”. Their speed leads to lots of penalties and mistakes, and their play calling seems very vanilla to us. We feel like your average football fan can predict their plays from the comfort of their own couch. Also, their defense is gross. They barely survived week 1 against a bad Nevada team, and their vaunted offense managed only 261 yards against BYU, who is, as the kids would say, mid. And what of TCU? This is a team that had a lot of question marks on offense coming into the season, especially at QB and O-line. Last week, against what will probably end up being a really solid UCF team, Josh Hoover threw for 402 yards and 4 TDs. They should torch the Ponies on Saturday if they can do anything close to that. Sonny Dykes has a better squad than people think, and we think we can take advantage of that for a few more weeks before everyone catches on. Give us TCU to win this one against what we think is probably a below average SMU team.
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Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
At this point, it’s safe to say that any NFL fan or bettor with two eyes and a working brain can see that the Deshaun Watson experiment isn’t working in Cleveland. Perhaps his poor performance in 2022 could’ve been due to rust after returning from an injury that sidelined him for over a year, but last season’s numbers — when he was healthy — were just as bad. This past offseason, the Browns brought in former Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to try and improve the offense, and instead of starting an upward trajectory, Watson was the worst he’s ever looked in a Browns uniform in Week 1. The 28-year old didn’t complete a single pass of 15+ yards downfield, threw a pair of interceptions and registered a 51.1 QBR in an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Cowboys. Watson was also constantly under pressure against Dallas, and given that the Browns might be down 2 offensive lineman in this game, a Jaguars defensive front led by Josh Hines-Allen could wreak major havoc on an already anemic offense. While we don’t have many positive things to say about Cleveland at the moment, Jacksonville should probably be entering this matchup off a win, and favored by more than a field goal as a result. In fact, if Travis Etienne doesn’t fumble the ball a few yards from the goal line (a score that would’ve put the Jaguars up 24-7 late in the 3rd quarter), Jacksonville would have pulled the upset over the Dolphins in Miami, and the perception of Doug Pederson’s team is a lot different heading into this one. A healthy and confident version of Trevor Lawrence makes a massive difference for a Jaguars offense that seems to be just fine at wide receiver after an encouraging showing in the first 3 quarters of last weekend’s game. Historically, teams that blow a double-digit lead in Week 1 have bounced back nicely the following week. The Browns were a disaster from start to finish in week 1, getting walloped at home, a place that they went 8-1 last season. With Jacksonville having a notoriously strong fan base at home and Cleveland's woes away from their home stadium last season, the Jags should easily be able to cover a 3-point spread.
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Indiana vs. UCLA
Bet: Indiana -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Hoosiers look like an entirely different team this year with a high-octane offense and a more than serviceable defense. The Hoosiers will put the pressure on a UCLA offense that looked sluggish and failed to finish off drives against an inferior Hawaii team in week one. While UCLA failed to produce touchdowns in the red zone in their opener, the Hoosiers have been dazzling in the red zone through their first two games. UCLA struggled to run the ball against Hawaii which does not bode well for them when they get into Big Ten play. Indiana will be able to pin back its ears on Saturday knowing that the Bruins can't run. The Hoosiers are 10th in the nation in sacks per game thus far and should add to that total on Saturday night, knowing that the Bruins will have difficulty running the ball. The Hoosiers are trying to establish an identity as a viable threat this season and this game is a perfect opportunity to use as a coming-out party. We like the Hoosiers to roll to a win on the road in their first Big Ten Conference game this season.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Bet: Miami Dolphins -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
If the Dolphins are going to beat the Bills this is the perfect time. The game will be played in the humidity of Miami, the Bills' defensive front is banged up, and Buffalo's offense is very much a work in progress. The strength of the Bills' defense last season was the team's stellar secondary, particularly the play at safety. This year, the Bills are breaking in two new safeties and the unit will take time to develop into one that finished 7th in pass defense in 2023. The Dolphins' offense started slowly in week 1 but Tua finished with over 300 yards passing and was able to connect with Hill on a deep pass play. Bills QB Allen comes into this game with a hand injury and, with a short week, he could be hampered a bit. Desperation plays an important role in NFL games and we always lean toward the more desperate team. The Dolphins know they'll need this victory at home here with a pending date in Buffalo later in the season. They are catching a Bills team that is still adjusting to a new roster and trying to build a new identity with several new pieces on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins will thrive on the ground in this one with the Bills' injuries on the defensive line and that will set up the pass in the second half against tired Bills legs. We’re taking Miami to cover this small spread.
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New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers
Bet: New York Jets +4.5/-124 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The highly anticipated return of Aaron Rodgers on a hyper-talented Jets’ roster has the football world captivated for the first Monday Night Football game. Somehow, New York is trotting into Week 1 with very little media attention. We love that for them. Last year, HBO’s Hard Knocks created a remarkable buzz surrounding Aaron Rodgers on his new squad. That pressure has turned into unadulterated excitement this year, with fans and critics agonizing to see how it will all finally play out. And this year, “Gang Green” brought backup. Learning from last year’s many offensive woes, the Jets solidified their offensive line by signing longtime stud tackles, Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. They also added big-bodied Mike Williams from the Chargers, a receiver who provides yet another dynamic threat for Rodgers. The Jets’ defense is unquestionably the most talented in the league, with stars on all 3 levels. Last year it was New York’s resistance that kept so many games alive for a program that produced so little on the other end. Needless to say, the hype is real with A-Rod back in the mix. What makes this game even more unbelievably exciting? It includes last year’s NFC representative in the Super Bowl. Perceptions heading into the season were lower on the 49ers than most years, partially because of redefined-expectations after their run last season, and partially because they lost some key guys. Their defensive line is less talented this year, but we don’t see anything devastating overall. The only potential issue is a psychological one. San Francisco hasn’t portrayed the same “buttoned-up” prowess that they usually do. Brock Purdy played too much in the preseason, the offense looked out-of-sync, and late signings of Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams still have many scratching their heads. The New York Jets have an elite roster on offense and defense. Aaron Rodgers is healthy and while he did not play in the preseason, the veteran looked great in practice. Rodgers is sporting a dominant 20:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his career against the 49ers. The 49ers have a good secondary but it's nothing that Rodgers can’t solve. The 49ers pass defense was ranked 14th in the NFL last year. Furthermore, the Jets have a vaunted defensive unit. It’s going to be a challenge for Purdy to have his usual success against an elite secondary highlighted by Sauce Gardner who is regarded as one of the best CBs. The Jets' pass defense was ranked 2nd last year and will be just as good this season. The Jets are a dangerous team to face with so much outside noise leading up to Week 1, and we see much value on a road pooch looking to make an early statement.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins
Bet: Miami Dolphins -3/-124 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Push
We are pretty low on the Jaguars this year, and as such we`ll be laying the points with the Fins here. Trevor Lawrence struggled mightily with boneheaded turnovers last year, and Doug Pederson seems to have lost his mojo as a play-caller. The team let Calvin Ridley walk in free agency, replacing him with Gabe Davis. Buffalo benched Davis down the stretch last season, and we were not a fan of that signing at all. Davis has never caught more than 48 passes in a season in his career. Travis Etienne had one of the lowest yards-before-first-contact rates in the NFL last year, showing that their offensive line doesn’t get much push at all in the run game. Mike McDaniel has proven himself to be an offensive mastermind, and he’s had all offseason to prepare for one middling defense without having to put anything on film. Jacksonville’s big acquisition on defense this offseason was Arik Armstead, but Armstead is on the wrong side of 30 now and has been injured and way less effective the last couple of years. Former first-overall pick Travon Walker has been a disappointment, and the Jags don’t have the horses in the secondary to keep Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle contained. To be fair, nobody really does, and the Dolphins should be able to move the ball with ease once again this year. Miami went 4-0 in their first 4 home games last season, winning each of those games by at least 14 points. Expect another comfortable win for the hosts.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Bet: Atlanta Falcons -3.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Atlanta Falcons are loaded this season. They added QB Kirk Cousins and he'll be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. He also has ample weapons with Drake London and Bijan Robinson leading the way. Raheem Morris gets another chance as a head coach and brings a defensive-minded approach unlike Art Smith. The Falcons should have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL with the additions of LB Matthew Judon from the Patriots and SS Justin Simmons from the Broncos. The Pittsburgh Steelers will once again have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They have a revamped offensive line relying heavily on rookies, and they went cheap at QB bringing in Russell Wilson and Justin Fiels. No question the Steelers have a solid defense, but their offense is a glaring weakness and will easily be the worst unit on the field for either team Sunday. Give us the Falcons.
Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears
Bet: Tennessee Titans +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The public really loves the Bears which has forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of their odds as numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and NFC North odds while the win total has gone up as they are hit with their fourth highest win total over the last 11 years. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well so this is a team on the rise but we are not laying over a field goal in the season opener with a rookie quarterback no matter how good he is supposed to be, supposed to being the key word. Williams does come into a unique situation as while he is the No. 1 overall draft pick, the team around him is not a last place talent but we still cannot ignore the fact that starting quarterbacks in Week One that were the No. 1 overall draft pick are just 2-21. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg but they actually face a revamped offense that could cause problems. Tennessee hired Brian Callahan as its new head coach who served as the Bengals offensive coordinator the last five seasons and he brings in a good pedigree as he is the son of Bill Callahan who also came over to coach the offensive line which was in dire need of help. The offense has been upgraded along the offensive line which is a big step in the progress of quarterback Will Levis who showed he can succeed in this league but he needs more consistency. The Titans also signed receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, so along with DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has a very solid group to throw to. They replaced Derrick Henry with Tony Pollard who can flourish as the No. 1 back, something he never got to consistently do while in Dallas. The Titans shored up the defense as well as the secondary is stronger with the signing of cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie. We love dogs early on and in this case, Week One and Two, underdogs of seven points or less are 118-76-5 ATS since 2016.
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Bet: Carolina Panthers +4/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
New Orleans may have a new offense but it won't be enough to cover the spread on Sunday. The Saints are 7-15 ATS at home since 2021. The Panthers have more weapons for Young to work with, and we expect him to show marked improvement in year two of his NFL career. Carolina was an unlucky team last season, ranking 30th in injury luck and 28th in EPA off turnovers, so regression should work in its favor in 2024-25. We are also bullish on the Panthers' chances of pulling off the upset but feel most confident picking them to cover. Carr has been fade-worthy throughout his career (74-83-3 ATS as a favorite), especially lately. He is 10-26-2 ATS when favored by three points or more, including 3-14-1 ATS (17%) in the last 18 games. Carolina's defense was solid last season, ranking sixth in passing yards allowed, and bolstered its run defense with the additions of Clowney and K’Lavon Chaisson. The Panthers are in a solid week 1 dogs system here that plays on dogs of 6 or less in divisional games if they had less than 4 wins last season and are taking on a team like New Orleans that had at least 7 wins last year. If these road dogs have revenge they have covered over 85% long term. The Panthers are on the improve and should keep this tight here today.
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Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Bet: Pittsburgh ML/+110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Pitt faced off against Kent State in the first game and the offense was impressive putting up 55 points, but the defense left some to be desired as they gave up 24 points. The offense has no concerns and Eli Holstein had an impressive game. He completed 30 of his 40 passes for 336 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. The running game was also wild and Desmond Reid rushed 14 times for 145 yards and a touchdown. Wide receiver Kenny Johnson also put on a show and finished with 14 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown. Cincinnati in the first game faced off against Towson and they weren’t exactly dominant. Cincinnati scored 38 points but the defense gave up 20 points as they struggled against the pass and they allowed Carlos Davis to throw for 244 yards and two touchdowns. The run game also wasn’t exactly dominant either. What a way to start your career this freshman QB from Pittsburgh Eli Holstein. We know it was against inferior competition, but we were very impressed to say the least. Pittsburgh has a great WR and RB tandem with Kenny Johnson & Desmond Reid. We see this trio putting up big numbers up again against a Cincinatti team which is in our opinion a below average team in the Big 12. Cincinatti allowed 18 first downs and 425 yards at home in week 1 to a FCS team Towson and 3 turnovers to boot. Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball in this game and the Panthers defense will be the tougher unit.
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Texas vs. Michigan
Bet: Texas -6.5/-112 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Winner
It’s hard to believe that this will be just the second time that these storied programs have ever met, the first coming in the 2005 Rose Bowl, won by Texas, 38-37. These two come into this meeting with some different posturing, to be sure. The Wolverines are entering a brand new era, a new head coach, a new system, and new pieces at most key positions. The Longhorns are loaded and have veteran leadership with strong coaches already in place. This Texas group in general has had a good amount of time together. The Longhorns will win and dominate in this one, covering the spread and winning by double-digits. Against Colorado State, Quinn Ewers looked like one of the best signal callers in the country, armed with one of the best wide receiver groups as well. The balance for Texas will allow them to find success and overcome Michigan's pass rush. Speaking of quarterback, continued questions there will be too much for the Wolverines to overcome and their inability to move on from the ground game, where they struggled to find success anyway last week, will be their downfall in week two. Texas has covered the spread in four of their last five, dating back to last season, as they extend that successful stretch ATS on Saturday.
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Bet: Iowa State +3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
If you’re a fan of some good old fashioned defense-first football, then the Cy-Hawk rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State has typically been one that you’d circle on the calendar each year. Don’t expect that to change on Saturday, despite what some of the numbers from a week ago might have indicated about Iowa’s potential offensive improvement. There’s a lot of noise in those numbers since the Hawkeyes opponent (Illinois State) was clearly worn down on defense in the second half following a first half where the Redbirds allowed just 6 points and generally stymied an Iowa offense that looked like the same old Iowa. As for Iowa State, Matt Campbell’s team played things very close to the vest a week ago, as Rocco Becht and this Cyclones offense seemed to be going through the motions and were generally a bit underwhelming in a win over a solid FCS opponent in North Dakota. However, this type of situation is where you want to back Campbell, as he’s excellent as an underdog of 3 points or more with a record of 31-16 against the spread (66%), including recent success in Kinnick Stadium as an underdog back in 2022. In a game where points should certainly come at a premium, we believe that we are getting the better offense and quarterback with Iowa State. Therefore, taking the points with the ‘dog is the only way we can look in this nonconference tilt.
East Carolina (ECU) vs. Old Dominion (ODU)
Bet: East Carolina (ECU) -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Pirates looked great offensively in their first game, racking up over 500 yards while scoring four touchdowns. The only cause for concern was their turnovers, which didn’t cost them in that game. Even though they threw the ball well in their first game, expect them to keep the ball on the ground a lot in this game because the Monarchs had a tough time defending the run in their first game, giving up close to 180 rushing yards in that game, and will have a hard time slowing down the Pirates ground attack. The Monarchs didn’t play well offensively in their first game, throwing for less than 200 yards and rushing for less than 110 yards while averaging 3.1 yards per carry. They won’t be able to run the ball against the Pirates, who held the Spartans under 50 rushing yards in their first game despite over 40 carries. They also won’t pick up a lot of yards through the air because the Pirates did a great job of putting pressure on Norfolk State’s quarterback and held him under 100 passing yards in that game, so expect them to keep Old Dominion’s offense in check. Go with East Carolina to cover the spread.
South Carolina vs. Kentucky
Bet: Kentucky -8/-114 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
First, Kentucky has established a strong home-field advantage under Mark Stoops, especially in early-season games. The Wildcats’ performance against Southern Miss, even in a weather-shortened contest, showed a team ready to hit the ground running. They jumped to a 31-0 lead before the game was called off. Brock Vandagriff, making his first start, displayed poise and efficiency, completing 12 of 18 passes for 169 yards and three touchdowns. Despite limited playing time due to the weather, Vandagriff proved he's capable of leading the offense effectively. Given that this was his first game as a starter, and while it was a bit shaky at times, there’s every reason to believe he’ll improve with more reps, especially with South Carolina's defense being vulnerable in their opener. On the other side, South Carolina struggled mightily in their narrow 23-19 victory over Old Dominion, a game in which they were expected to win comfortably as 21-point favorites. LaNorris Sellers, making his debut as the starting quarterback, looked shaky, completing just 10 of 23 passes for 114 yards, and taking four sacks. Kentucky’s defense, particularly their ability to create turnovers and pressure the quarterback, will be a critical factor. In their limited action against Southern Miss, the Wildcats forced two interceptions and showcased their ability to shut down drives. Playing in Lexington is never easy for South Carolina. Historically, they’ve struggled on the road in SEC play, and with a young quarterback like Sellers making his first road start, the environment at Kroger Field could be overwhelming. Kentucky’s defense will likely ramp up the pressure, so expect them to dominate this game and cover the spread.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Green Bay Packers ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Both teams will be making adjustments this season with changes at the coaching level. The Packers will be converting to a 4-3 defensive scheme this season while the Eagles will have new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Eagles looked like a tired team by the time the playoffs rolled around last year and Hurts took a step back in 2023. Yes, he was injured but Hurts has now sandwiched two decent seasons around his MVP-level season in 2022. The Philadelphia Eagles vastly underperformed in 2023, stumbling through the final few weeks of the regular season and losing to the middling Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. Many sharp bettors feel that Philadelphia is a great grab in Week 1 because of their letdown last season, expecting positive regression stemming from a new 2024 outlook. We’re not so convinced. The schism between coach Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts is now well-documented, something we noted years ago because their personalities just seem so different, and we can’t like that they lost one of the best centers of all time, Jason Kelce. Their offensive line still has plenty of talent, and a new hot-shot RB in Saquon Barkley, but we anticipate early struggles. Kelce was as much a part of the play-by-play decision-making as the QB; there’s simply no way his presence isn’t missed. On defense, Philadelphia has the weakest set of EDGE rushers in a decade, and it remains to be seen if newcomer Vic Fangio can resurrect a unit that was incredibly porous a season ago (30th in ppg allowed). The Packers have come changeover on the defensive side of the ball with a new DC and a change in philosophy. The defense comes back nearly intact, however, and that should make the changes smoother. The Packers were solid against the pass in 2023, ranked 13th in the NFL. They switched up the defensive scheme to improve a run defense that finished 28th in the NFL against the run in 2023. Offensively, the Packers should be ready to roll with nearly all their key skill players back save for an upgrade at running back with the arrival of Josh Jacobs. Jacobs gives the Packers a back that can wear down opposing defenses and set up the team's dynamic passing attack. Don't forget, the Packers rolled over the Cowboys in the playoffs because former RB Jones was healthy and dominated the game to set up Love and the passing attack. Love should find that same kind of success this season, especially against an Eagles secondary that ranked just 29th in 2023. We like the Packers to pick up a slight upset win on Friday night.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/-145 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Tampa Bay has the third-highest strikeout rate (26.0%), the second-lowest wOBA (.289) and the seventh-lowest wRC+ (90) in the second half of the season. It has lost eight of its last ten games versus Baltimore, scoring two or fewer runs in six of those games (three or fewer runs in seven of ten). The Rays will face a motivated Orioles team on a day's rest tomorrow — no matter who takes the mound, they're in for a stiff challenge. Baltimore hasn't been dominant in the second half, but it's not for a lack of offense. The O's rank 4th in wRC+ (115), 7th in wOBA (.328) and 4th in BB% (9.6%). Baz has walked three batters in each of his last two appearances (12.2 IP) and 20 total in 49.0 total innings. Opponents are hitting .257 against him in his road outings, as well. He may hold his own for two or three innings but I don't anticipate the Orioles (4.9 runs/game at home) after scoring 39 runs in their last six games (6.5 runs/game). We are betting on the better, more motivated team to win straight-up at home, especially at under -145 odds!
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics
Bet: Detroit Tigers -1 ALT RL/-128 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
There’s no way wea re going to bet against Tarik Skubal, who’s a runaway favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. Skubal struggled a bit in his previous date with the A’s, but it was way back in his second start of the season. He holds a microscopic 0.53 ERA in three career starts (17 IP) at Oakland Coliseum. These two met back in April, the A’s taking two of three from the Tigers at home. Given the time left in the season, Detroit cannot allow for that to happen again. They benefit greatly from having their ace on the hill to kick the series off and snatching a win off the jump of the weekend will go a long way. The Tigers’ left-hander has done extremely well on the road, with a 7-3 record and 2.91 ERA in 13 starts. Skubal has won four straight road starts. Spence has been the loser in his last two starts at home and teams are hitting .266 against him there. Detroit’s offense is desperate to get going down the stretch and this is a good opportunity for them to do just that. Take the Tigers.
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) PPD
The Washington Nationals are stumbling, dropping four of their last five games. They have lost eight of their last ten road games. The Pittsburgh Pirates won two of three on the road against the Nationals in the first series and just earned a series win against the Cubs. Furthermore, Nats pitcher DJ Herz gave up four runs in 4.2 innings against the Cubs in his previous outing. He has a mediocre 4.05 ERA and an 0-2 record on the road. Pirates pitcher Luis Ortiz has been dominant, he has not allowed a run in two straight outings spanning 12 innings including six scoreless innings against the Guardians.
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Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Baltimore Ravens ML/+130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday night with the Baltimore Ravens hitting the road to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Baltimore Ravens have made the playoffs in five of the last six years and enter year 17 under coach John Harbaugh. The Ravens have won double-digit games in nine of the last 14 years. The Ravens are a Super Bowl contender yet again as long as quarterback Lamar Jackson is on the field, now a two-time MVP at 27 years old. The newest addition to the Baltimore offense, Henry should bring a massive power punch in the backfield next to Lamar Jackson. The four-time Pro Bowler finished with 1,167 rushing yards and 12 scores last season for Tennessee. He could have an even bigger season in a talented Baltimore offense. He’s a sneaky pick in any rushing prop since the Chiefs did allow 4.5 yards per carry in 2023. Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost star corner L’Jarius Sneed, but they did bring back Chris Jones after having one of the better defensive units in the NFL in 2023. The Kansas City Chiefs are getting the benefit of the doubt because they’re the defending champs at home. It’s also hard to bet against Mahomes. With that said, the Baltimore Ravens are a title contender on paper, and you’re not going to get them as an underdog often this season. The Ravens are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Chiefs still have wide receiver questions, especially with Marquise Brown banged up. The Raven’s physical defense is going to give the Chiefs issues. Lamar Jackson has won 8 of his last 11 regular season road games. Again, you won’t get this position with the Ravens many times this season and Baltimore’s secondary is elite and their secondary is going to have a huge season and game here. Lamar Jackson is still one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and he’s going to have a huge game here. This is really a game we believe the Ravens will win outright, so we are taking Baltimore +130 on the moneyline as our NFL Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Houston Astros ML/-135 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Houston Astros have big advantages on the mound and in the motivation department over the Cincinnati Reds tonight. They should be bigger favorites as a result, and I'll gladly back them at this discount. Spencer Arrighetti has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past couple months. He has allowed just 7 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings with 47 K's in his last five starts coming in. That includes 13 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts against Baltimore and Philadelphia, which are two of the best offenses in the league. The Reds have moved Nick Martinez into the rotation here down the stretch and he was much better out of the bullpen. Martinez has allowed 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.75 ERA. Bet the Astros Wednesday.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Milwaukee had its chances last night but lost in extra innings and looks to get it back tonight. The Brewers have won six of their last eight games and they still have a 10-game lead in the National League Central but there is no easing up as Milwaukee is just 3.5 games behind the Phillies for the best record in the National League so it is very much still in play for the top seed which will be huge in the playoffs with them, Philadelphia and Los Angeles all dominating at home. St. Louis took two of three games against the Yankees in New York and it has now won five of its last seven games and has yet to throw in the white flag. The Cardinals are a game cover .500 and still have a glimmer of hope for a Wild Card spot but they are 5.5 games out and would have to pass the Cubs, Mets and Braves but six of their final seven series are against non-playoff contenders including all three on the road where they are 35-39. Colin Rea has been tough to figure out this season as he has been mostly consistent with the exception of just a handful of starts. He is putting together the best season of his career as he has a 3.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 26 games and he has allowed two runs or less in 12 of his last 17 outings and on the season with the Brewers going 19-7 in his games. He has allowed five runs or more only five times and those have come against the Dodgers, Pirates, Padres, Astros and Yankees with the game against Pittsburgh being the only head-scratcher. Sonny Gray is having a decent yet unspectacular season as he has a 3.96 ERA through 25 starts and he has not been great since the All Star Break as he has a 5.30 ERA in eight outings. This includes four road starts where he has given five runs or more in three of those, posing a 6.48 ERA covering 25 innings. His K% is solid but he has negated that with home run issues as he has allowed 21 after giving up 19 over the previous two seasons combined.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-129 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Francis has been on a roll, winning his last four starts while allowing just two runs on six hits with three walks and 32 strikeouts over 29 innings of work. Whether he can maintain that sort of success against a tough Phillies lineup remains to be seen. Toronto has had their issues at the plate this season, which is a major reason why the team is in the basement of the AL East. Philadelphia has played well all season long and Sanchez already owns a win over the Blue Jays this season. With the Phillies solid at the plate, they do enough to ding Francis and the Toronto bullpen to pick up a road victory here on getaway day.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL/-102 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
As we progress late in the season, there is more data to be found in these divisional matchups, as most divisional rivals have already played each other 10 or more times. The same can be said for this game, as Imanaga has already pitched against the Pirates, and Falter has already gone against the Cubs. Both pitchers have done well against their opponent, but Imanaga had the more impressive display. Imanaga pitched one game against the Pirates this season and destroyed them. He pitched seven scoreless innings, with seven strikeouts, and only allowed four hits, and the Pirates had a .160 batting average against him. This is nothing new for Imanaga, as he is 11th in the MLB in ERA, and has over a 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Cubs have the upper hand in the season series and just swept the Pirates in Pittsburgh last week. Four of their six wins over Pittsburgh have covered the run line, and they will again with their ace on the mound.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML/-135 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Arizona Diamondbacks have not only been playing great baseball, particularly before the Dodgers series, but they are one of the hottest-hitting teams in the league. The D-Backs are now the top run-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.3 runs per game. They have won four of the seven meetings against the Giants this season heading into game one of this series. Arizona looks to bounce back from a rough series against the Dodgers while the Giants look like a team that is waving the white flag after losing two of three to the lowly Marlins over the weekend and being swept by the Brewers before that. The Giants are also hitting just .240 as a team so they will have trouble keeping up with the high-powered D-Backs. Take Arizona with the money line.
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
Bet: New York Mets ML/-134 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Winner
These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The New York Mets have won five straight to pull within 0.5 games of the Braves for the final wild card spot in the National League. The Red Sox have lost three straight and eight of their last 11 to fall 4.5 games back in the AL wild card. The Mets have a big advantage on the mound today as well behind David Peterson, who has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. Peterson is 8-1 with a 2.83 ERA in 16 starts for the Mets. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts and 14 of his 16 starts this season. Kutter Crawford is 8-12 with a 4.12 ERA in 28 starts for the Red Sox. He has allowed 33 earned runs and 14 homers in 41 innings in his last eight starts coming in. Crawford allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings in his lone career start against the Mets. The Red Sox have scored one run or fewer in three consecutive games and four of their last five overall. They have cooled off at the plate and they have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Bet the Mets Tuesday.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/-150 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Milwaukee took the series opener 9-3 on Monday and have now won 6 of their last 7. The Brewers have controlled this season series so far, with an 8-3 overall lead over the Cardinals. The pitching matchup also favors Milwaukee going into the second game of the series. Milwaukee is starting Civale, and he has found his comfort level as the Brewers have won outright in all of his last four starts. In two of those four games, he held his opponent scoreless, including strong efforts against the Guardians and Giants. On the other side, Steven Matz will get the start, though it was originally slated to be Sonny Gray. This is not good news for the Cardinals, as Matz has a much higher ERA up at 6.18, and has given up an eye-opening 16 earned runs over just his last three starts. The Brewers have dominated this series and will win again here. We are betting the Brewers -150 on the money line in Tuesday's home game against the Cardinals.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/-150 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Chicago Cubs are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to play themselves back into NL Wild Card contention. They are riding the hottest offense in baseball scoring a total of 99 runs in their last 10 games for an average of 9.9 runs per game. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 7-19 in their last 26 games overall to play themselves out of contention. They are going to struggle to find the motivation the rest of the way to show up every day. This Pittsburgh staff has been atrocious as the Pirates have allowed 57 runs in their last six games overall for an average of 9.5 runs per game. Jared Jones just returned from the IL and made his first start since July 3rd in a 9-5 loss to the Cubs on August 27th. Jones allowed 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 8 base runners in 4 innings in that contest. We expect the hot-hitting Cubs to get to him again. Bet the Cubs Monday.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Bet: Kansas City Royals ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Royals are due for an offensive breakout after three low-scoring games versus the Astros with a superstar like Witt and have been a much more productive team at the plate at Kauffman Stadium (5.2 runs at home compared to 4.4 on the road). They'll fare better against Williams in their second look at him in less than a week. The same can be said for Wacha, who didn't have his best stuff last start versus Cleveland. He'll bounce back at home, where he is 6-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 appearances this season. The Guardians score 4.2 runs on the road (4.9 at home) and haven't been swinging the bat as well in the second half of the season (.225 BA/.292 OBP/.368 SLG /.660 OPS) as they did in the first half (.243/.316/.405/.721). Kansas City is 29-14 (67.4%) in division games, including 7-3 in its last ten games against Cleveland. Hitting with runners on base is critical and there is a massive difference here as the Guardians are 16th in MLB with a .755 team OPS while the Royals are up at fourth place with a .809 team OPS. Go with the Kansas City Royal to win as they have the superior team right now.
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USC Trojans vs LSU Tigers
Bet: LSU Tigers -3 Alternate Spread/-139 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
It’s a new chapter for both of these teams as the last two Heisman Trophy winners departed these programs in the offseason as they were selected 1-2 in the NFL Draft. Both teams have quarterbacks that stepped up and delivered wins in bowl games a season ago. LSU has a veteran offensive line that should be able to keep Nussmeier upright while opening holes in the ground game. We saw how USC struggled defensively last season as the Trojans were 101st against the pass (246.4 yards per game), 116th against the run (186.5 yards per game) and 116th in total defense (432.8 yards per game) in addition to ranking 118th in scoring defense. The question marks around the USC defense continue to pose a concern until proven otherwise. Riley can draw up high-octane offense, but the inexperience both at QB and from the wide-outs will face a daunting task against the stout LSU defense, which had one of the higher sack rates in football a season ago. Add the fact that Nussmeier was outstanding in LSU's bowl game win over Wisconsin and you have a team that will be more ready to open the season. Expect the Tigers to wear down the USC defense and the Trojans offense to struggle against the physical pass rush of the Tigers. LSU should be able to move the ball against the Trojans and their defense, led by Harold Perkins, should do enough against the Trojans to get the win here.
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Miami-FL vs. Florida
Bet: Miami-FL -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
It feels like this game has flown under the radar with some of the bigger ranked matchups on Saturday’s slate. Personally, we think this is a must-watch game as two Florida schools go toe-to-toe in the swamp. The oddsmakers think we’ll be in for a good one, setting a spread in the 2.5-to-3.0-point range. This is going to sound extremely simplified, but we think this exercise is a great starting place for handicapping games. Let us ask you, would you rather back the duo of Mario Cristobal and Cam Ward or Billy Napier and Graham Mertz? For us, we`ll roll with the Miami duo 10 times out of 10. We are expecting a high-scoring game, and we`d much rather be on the side of Cam Ward, who has 13,000+ career passing yards and 119 passing touchdowns. This guy can sling it, and we think he’ll tear up Florida’s secondary, which ranked 84th last year in passing yards against (241.3 per game).Miami landed Oregon State running back Damien Martinez, who is fresh off a 1,000-yard season, and a receiving trio of Xavier Restrepo, Samuel Brown and Jacolby George is as good as any in college football. Miami also has one of the best offensive lines. On the flip side, Mertz has always felt like a “game manager” type to us, and we are not confident that he’ll be able to stretch the ball down the field to beat the Hurricanes. This Florida defense still isn’t good, and Cam Ward is going to have a field day with it. Miami has the edge on defense, as coordinator Lance Guidry's group held teams to 22.8 points a game and 5.2 yards per play - numbers significantly better than the Florida unit posted (6.44 yards a snap and 27.6 points per contest) in '23. Additionally, the 'Canes continued to improve the defense in the offseason with a couple of key portal pickups, including end Tyler Baron, tackle Simeon Barrow, linebacker Jaylin Alderman, and defensive backs D'Yoni Hill and Mishael Powell. Mertz is going to get his season off to a slow start for Florida, and Miami is going to get the job done. Back the Hurricanes to win this game and cover the spread.
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Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Bet: Texas A&M -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Texas A&M Aggies clash in College Station for what should be one of the premier matchups on the Week 1 slate. There has been some rather interesting line movement on the spread, moving from -1 to -3 in A&M’s favor with less than 60% of public bets siding with the favorite. However, almost 90% of the handle sides with the hosts. The Aggies have had time to let the dust settle after the massive Jimbo Fisher debacle, paying him $75 million to NOT coach the team. The Aggies have brought in some quality transfers and are staying in house under QB with sophomore Conner Weigman. He posted quality numbers in the 4 appearances he made in 2023 and will be behind a quality offensive line in 2024. Texas A&M hired Elko to lead the program and his unique fingerprints are already over it. Offensive coordinator Collin Klein has embraced the quarterback run and spread concepts. The defense will lean more heavily on the defensive line and pass-rusher Nic Scourton. In every sense, Texas A&M will simplify and embrace its playmakers. The key here lies in how well Notre Dame can move the ball. Who better to slow Leonard down than former coach, Mike Elko? He should have some tricks up his sleeve and with the strong pass rush of the Aggies coupled with the question marks on Notre Dame's offensive line, Leonard may not have too much time in the pocket. Weigman will look to leave his mark on the field as he closed last season with a 69% completion rate. Notre Dame on the other hand is shaking things up with transfer Riley Leonard at QB, who was decent at Duke, but his numbers never really lived up to his “NFL potential.” Furthermore, it’s important to remember that Kyle Field is one of, if not the, hardest stadiums to play in with a deafening crowd over 100,000 strong. Despite the ranking difference, Texas A&M is a slight favorite over Notre Dame. Looking down the rosters, that advantage is for good reason. The Aggies can muck up the game in the trenches and cause real headaches with their stacked defensive line. The Aggies had one of the strongest pass rushes in the nation. This pass rush helped Texas A&M hold opponents to 23.1 points per game. The key number here is yards allowed. The Aggies were undefeated when they held foes to under 250 yards. This same interior pressure will look to stifle Leonard as he gets settled into his new offense. The defense was also able to hold opponents to under 3.5 yards per carry and they were one of the best 3rd down defenses in football with foes moving the sticks less than a 3rd of the time. The Aggies will be up for this game looking to spark a quality season in front of their home crowd, and with a stout defense and the explosiveness of Weigman, look for the Aggies to cover the spread.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds ( Game 1 )
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Brewers are one of the best teams in the National League. Milwaukee has come into this series playing well. They have won four of their last six games coming into Friday and we think they earn the win easily. The Brewers are leading the division for a reason. They hit the ball really well and their pitchers can slow opposing teams down. The Brewers are averaging .260 during road games and Colin Rea has been dominant in day games and limited the Reds to three runs (two earned) in a six-frame victory earlier this season. He has held Cincinnati to three or fewer runs in three of his four starts against them since last season. The veteran righty has kept three of his last six opponents scoreless, as well. While his xERA indicates negative regression is looming, we doubt Cincy (.215 BA/.295 OBP/.363 SLG/.658 OPS in day games) will be the team to knock him around. Milwaukee has excelled both on the road (.260/.334/.402/.736) and in day games (.262/.335/.418/.753) this season. It's averaging 5.3 runs per game this month and has dominated this series, winning six of the nine previous matchups this season and outscoring Cincinnati by 14 runs in those games. Martinez and the Reds bullpen will struggle to keep the Brewers off the scoreboard. The Reds won’t be able to compete as they have a .215 average versus Milwaukee this season.
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New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Bet: New York Mets ML/+110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
In their first five meetings this season, the Mets own a 3-2 advantage. New York knocked around the DBacks’ pitching on Tuesday night and they’ll conclude the series with one of their best starters on the hill. Peterson has been sensational in his 15 starts this season, especially over the last month where he has allowed just four earned runs in his last three road starts. Arizona can’t say the same for Nelson, who has pitched better away from home this season. He is 4-3 in 10 starts at Chase this year but has a .495 ERA and opponents have hit .284 against him. The Mets showed in game one that they are capable of hitting the DBacks pitching, and prior to Tuesday night, the Mets scored at least seven runs in three of their last five games. We already saw the Diamondbacks struggle against a lefty in Sean Manaea earlier in this series and we think there could be another struggle here. The Mets have crushed Nelson in his career and a win here keeps the Wild Card race red hot. The Mets have won each of their last eight games against National League opponents following a road loss.
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Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Texas Rangers -1 ALT RL/-117 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Even though the Rangers aren’t playing their best baseball right now, we think we’re getting a fantastic deal with only having to lay a -117/-1 ATL RL price tag with them. I mean, we’re talking about the White Sox here, who have lost 101 games this season! We think the reason that the line is so tight is because Garrett Crochet is pitching. Well, Crochet hasn’t pitched more than 4.0 innings in any of his last nine starts. That means we should get a healthy dosage of Chicago’s bullpen, which is one of the worst in the league. We`ll dive into their numbers below, but we are confident that Texas can do enough against them to secure a win. Finally, it’s worth noting that Texas’ starter, Andrew Heaney (4.04 ERA), has limited Chicago’s roster to a slash line of .152/.200/.364 over 33 at-bats. Every White Sox loss since August 10 has come by multiple runs, so let’s back the Rangers -1 in this spot.
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Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi Osaka
Bet: Jelena Ostapenko to win the match/+120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Naomi Osaka's inconsistency is more about her life journey. Osaka has dealt with mental health challenges and has spoken publicly about them. The strain of life as a public figure isn't something every young athlete handles the same way or with the same level of ease. Public burdens and responsibilities fell hard upon Osaka's shoulders. She struggled with that. She has also faced the challenge of returning to supreme fitness and focus as an athlete after giving birth to a child and becoming a mother. That's not easy to juggle, either. When Osaka very nearly beat World No. 1 Iga Swiatek at the French Open earlier this year, many people in tennis thought Osaka would be a dangerous force in the summer hardcourt season on her one good surface. (She has never been good on clay or grass.) Yet, that has not materialized. Osaka did not make deep runs in Canada or Cincinnati leading up to the U.S. Open. Ostapenko doesn't have a better overall resume than Osaka does. Osaka has four major titles, Ostapenko only one. However, over the past two years, Osaka has been either off the grid or not able to invest too much energy into tennis. Ostapenko has not achieved spectacular results, but she has had her moments and has made some medium-length runs at big tournaments. Ostapenko is, in 2024, a better tennis player than Osaka and has more match play under her belt. 17-15 on the year, Osaka has had some winning moments but not enough of them in 2024. Ostapenko’s 29-16 record compares favorably and in the battle of veterans, you have to back the one that is playing better tennis and is more likely to be in rhythm in this match and ultimately win.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins
Bet: Minnesota Twins ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Twins split their last six home games while the Braves have lost two of their last three road games. They have one of the best offenses in the league and scored at least five runs in three of their last four games. Expect them to continue playing well offensively because they’ve had a lot of success batting against left-handers and Fried has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up 15 runs in his last four starts. He gave up nine runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The Braves aren’t playing very well offensively and scored more than three runs once in their last six games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Ober has been dominant on the mound for the Twins, giving up seven runs in his last five starts. He gave up four runs in his last three home starts and will keep Atlanta’s offense in check. Go with Minnesota to cover the money line.
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos
Bet: Denver Broncos -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
When they met last, Arizona won 18-17 in the first week of preseason games last year. The two sides have fared much differently in this preseason, the Cardinals are still very much in search of their identity while the Broncos seem to have cleaned up the mess from a season ago. Denver will be going with a rookie QB to start this season, and Nix will probably see a series of downs in this one, giving way to a pair of vets who could do a little damage against the Cardinals' defense. Stidham and Wilson are very much duking it out for the QB2 spot, so they have something to prove. Expect those two, in particular, to stand out in this matchup. Denver’s defense has done well enough this preseason and should do well against Arizona’s second and third-stringers. While the Broncos offense has done a decent job in putting up points in the preseason, the Cardinals cannot say the same. Arizona’s offense has struggled to find the end zone. The visitors also come into this one having already stated that their starting quarterback, among other starters, will not be playing in this game. While the Tune-Ridder QB2 battle is intriguing, we feel in this matter it will only lead to forced errors against a Denver defense hungry to prove their worth. We like the Broncos in this game, they play at home, and we all know how hard is for the visiting teams to adjust to the altitude in Denver. The Broncos have moved the ball well over their previous two showings, and their defense was outstanding against the Packers in Week 2. Even if Nix doesn't play, the Broncos still have more competent backup quarterbacks in Wilson and Stidham, so we are backing the Broncos to win and cover.
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers
Bet: Baltimore Ravens ML/+130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Baltimore Ravens come into this one with a 1-1 record in the preseason after picking up their first win of the preseason in a 13-12 win over the Atlanta Falcons last time out. In the win, Josh Johnson completed all 11 of his pass attempted for 120 yards and a touchdown while Emory Jones threw for 100 yards and a TD on 7 of 9 passing. Devin Leary also threw for 24 yards on 3 of 5 passing. Chris Collier led the Ravens on the ground with 29 rushing yards and John Kelly Jr. added 21 rushing yards as well. Dayton Wade led the Ravens with 67 receiving yards and a TD while Keith Kirkwood had 37 receiving yards. Malik Cunningham, Anthony Miller and Qadir Ismail each had a team-high 3 receptions while Owen Wright added a 6-yard TD grab as well. The Green Bay Packers will go home for the first time in the preseason this week 1-1 overall following a 25 point loss against Denver. Offensively Green Bay was horrendous in the game compiling just 168 yards on 54 plays and scored just two points total. Defensively Green Bay was obliterated giving up 27 points including seventeen in the first half on 263 total yards from Denver. Baltimore’s strategic edge will help it prevail. Johnson’s offensive efficiency will outmatch the Packers, especially with the Ravens defense pressuring Clifford into mistakes. The Baltimore Ravens are usually an auto-bet in the preseason, John Harbaugh is 45-15 straight up and 40-20 against the spread as head coach in the preseason throughout his career. The Ravens have shown their depth and still have a pedigree for preseason football that’s extended back multiple seasons at this point. The Packers' offense struggled heavily in their last preseason game, even against back-ups. With both sides most likely resting starters, the depth in this game will show. The Ravens have much better depth, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers' offense will struggle again in this one. Give us Baltimore in this one as the Ravens are simply the more trustworthy team in this one.
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Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/-135 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Guardians' Bibee has turned into a reliable starter in just his second season. The Guardians have won four of his last five starts heading into this one with the only loss being a 2-1 decision in Milwaukee. He faces a Rangers' offense that has not packed the same type of punch that led them to a World Series title in 2023. They are hitting under .240 as a team and slugging .376 this season. Rangers' starter Nathan Eovaldi has been good but he's been bitten by a lack of offensive support in key spots. The Rangers have lost three of his last five starts. One key difference between the two teams is that while each pitcher should be able to get their team into the middle innings, Bibee turns the ball over to the best bullpen ERA in baseball while Eovaldi gives the ball to a Rangers' pen that has the fourth-worst ERA in baseball. Texas have struggled defensively, with a -37 run differential and opponents averaging 4.48 runs and 7.98 hits per game against them. Additionally, opposing teams have a batting average of .239 and an on-base percentage of .314 when facing the Rangers, highlighting the challenges the team has faced in limiting their opponents' offense. On the other side, the Guardians have consistently produced on offense, averaging 4.55 runs and 7.86 hits per game, with a team batting average of .238 and an on-base percentage of .308. They have also excelled defensively, holding a +75 run differential, while limiting opponents to an average of 3.95 runs and 7.67 hits per game. Furthermore, opposing teams have struggled against the Guardians, posting a batting average of .233 and an on-base percentage of .304, underscoring the team's solid overall performance. Take the Guardians to win on the moneyline.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks -1 ALT RL/-134 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
After getting swept in Tampa Bay, Arizona bounced back with a 9-6 win Monday and followed that up with a 3-1 win last night. They have won 22 of 30 games since the All Star Break and they are 32-13 over their last 45 games and remain one game behind the Padres in the National League Wild Card standings. They are just four games behind the Dodgers in the National League West as the offense remains one of the best in baseball as they lead the league in runs scored and are second behind the Dodgers in the National League in wOBA at .329. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 3.7 rpg over its last 25 games and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .289 wOBA, .660 OPS and a .129 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 45 of 78 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 9-34 while averaging 3.0 rpg with a .227 average, third worst in the league and a .632 OPS, second to last in baseball and of those 34 losses, 29 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.0 rpg. Jordan Montgomery has not been himself as he has allowed four runs or more seven times including six runs in four of those but only one of those has been on the road as he has struggled at Chase Field with a 7.71 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. His numbers on the road are far from spectacular but his ERA is 3.5 runs less at 4.26 and he has a respectable 1.24 WHIP. He does not strike anyone out as he initiates contact and has a 43.6% GB% which is No. 44 out of 123 starters that have tossed at least 80 innings. The Marlins put the ball on the ground more than any other team at 48.9% and it has the sixth lowest Hard Hit%. Roddery Munoz continues to struggle as in 15 starts, he has a 5.88 ERA and while in six of those he has allowed two runs or less, in the other nine outings, he has allowed 42 earned runs. Among 144 starting pitchers that have tossed at least 70 innings, only seven have a xFIP greater than 5.00 and Munoz is one of those as he is ranked No. 140 at 5.19. He has split time between Miami and Jacksonville in Triple-A and his numbers are very similar and one that really sticks out is his K-BB% where he posted a 7% ratio in the Minors and while with the Marlins, it is 8.3% which is No. 133 among those 144 pitchers. Roddery Munoz is an inexperienced rookie who is struggling, posting a disastrous 8.25 ERA in his last three outings.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
When the Phillies arrive in Atlanta on Tuesday, they will do so with a 7-game lead in the NL East and their ace on the mound. The Braves will be fighting to hold off a slew of wildcard contenders, something they have been able to do thus far despite their injury-plagued season. On Tuesday, though, there are just too many things working against the home-standing Braves for us to not bet against them. Let’s start with the pitching matchup. The Phillies are starting Zack Wheeler. Only once in his last 9 starts has he given up more than 2 runs, and only once in his last 9 starts has he failed to record at least 6 strikeouts. His sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP, along with his dependability, make him one of the frontrunners for the NL Cy Young. It also helps Wheeler that the Braves have not seen him since the season opener. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Braves as well. The Phillies won’t have trouble scoring in this game because they’ve had a lot of success batting against right-handers and Lopez was shaky on the mound in recent home starts before going on the IL, giving up six runs in his last three home starts. With Atlanta’s bullpen also struggling during their slump, they will have a hard time slowing down Philadelphia’s offense. Scoring won’t be as easy for the Braves because they hit below their average against right-handers and Wheeler has done a great job on the mound for the Phillies, giving up four runs in his last three starts. While the Phillies are about as healthy as they have been all season, the Braves just suffered another blow with Austin Riley out for 6-8 weeks with a fractured hand. They also just lost Jorge Soler to a hamstring injury after already being without Acuna Jr. and Albies. Atlanta is now missing its first 3 hitters from Opening Day. That’s tough for anyone to absorb, and the Braves were already struggling at the dish before losing Riley. This current Atlanta lineup isn't scaring anyone. There is great value in taking the top team in baseball on the money line and we see no reason not to take advantage of it.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
Bet: Oakland Athletics ML/+110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Oakland is hitting .252 BA/.331 OBP/.427 SLG/.759 OPS since the All-Star break, up significantly from the first half of the season (.227/.298/.388/.686). It's scoring 4.4 runs per game (3.9 in the first half) and its team ERA is down about 0.75 points. We expect the Athletics to make the most of their opportunities against Bradley, who has struggled in the second half. The young righty has allowed 15 runs in his last three starts, losing all three games. His road ERA is 1.67 points higher than his home ERA, and his 3.84 Expected ERA (xERA) indicates he may be due for some more negative regression, too. On the flip side, Boyle is due for positive regression. His MLB xERA is 2.51 points lower than his actual ERA and he has held opponents to a .162 batting average in Triple-A this year. The Rays haven't hit right-handers well this season (.226/.306/.358/.664) and could find it challenging to sustain the run production they had at home over the weekend. If Boyle can outpitch Bradley, the A's bullpen (6th-lowest ERA) has what it takes to close the door on Tampa Bay.
Plays released for August 18, 2024 - NO PLAYS
NFL Preseason Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for August 17, 2024 )
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears
Bet: Chicago Bears -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
While not getting too carried away with Chicago's 2-0 start, it's hard not to feel like they should have a distinct advantage again this week. The Bengals will likely continue to be conservative with Burrow's time on the field as he recovers from wrist surgery. There's no reason to put him in harm's way too much, particularly as the team sorts out the offensive line in light of the injury suffered by first-round pick Mims. The Bengals will also likely emphasize running the football this week after averaging just 2.8 yards per carry in their loss to the Bucs and they are down to Logan Woodside and Rocky Lombardi at quarterback assuming Burrow sits out. That will mean fewer explosive plays for the Bengals. The Bears showed against the Bills that they are already willing to pull out some gadget plays and get Williams fairly deep into the playbook. They have also run the ball extremely well and have depth at the quarterback position. Eberflus is now 6-2 in the preseason as a head coach in his career while Taylor fell to 3-10 with the Bengals' loss to the Bucs. Eberflus is in the process of building a culture in Chicago and even preseason victories are important to this team's psyche. We think that trend will continue on Saturday. Take the Bears -6 as our NFL Preseason Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Bet: San Francisco Giants ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Thursday gives us a day game following a night game by the Bay. On Wednesday, the Braves dismantled the Giants, hanging a whopping 13 runs en route to their third straight win in this series. The Giants will turn to their ace on Thursday in hopes of salvaging a win from this set. Logan Webb will throw for the Giants. He has been great in his last three outings, allowing just 2 runs across 21.2 innings of work. Those games were against Detroit, Oakland, and Washington, but it’s not like the Braves had been ripping the ball before Wednesday’s outburst. For Atlanta, it will be Max Fried. He has made two starts since returning from an elbow injury and has not looked right. More concerning than the 9 runs he has allowed in those two starts is the control issues. He walked eight guys in those two games, which is alarming. If he gets the ball back in the zone, the Giants are a dangerous team against lefties, and it is their far better split. We are in a spot where one starter is trustworthy and in good form while the other is not. Simply put, Max Fried has struggled in his recent outings while Webb has excelled. San Francisco also has the #1 ranked bullpen in the majors this year in terms of bullpen ERA, which can be put to good use in this game. The Giants will desperately need this game to stay alive in the wild card race, and they should be able to take care of business at home. We will ride those trends, and take San Francisco as our MLB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Houston Astros ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Astros are red-hot winners of seven in a row while the Rays have lost two in a row and four of their last five games. the Rays have only totaled three runs in this series and it is not surprising their lineup has struggled lately since they treaded away two of their top hitters. They will struggle at the dish again facing Blanco, who has been ok in the last two starts. Littell had a good start in the one before his last one facing the Astros only giving up one run. Houston will not light it up at the dish but get more clutch hitting and they will take this game and complete the series sweep. Take the Astros at -120.
MLB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for August 13, 2024 )
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/-130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Hunter Greene is 8-4 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 23 starts for the Reds this season. He has been virtually untouchable in his last six starts, allowing just 4 earned runs and 16 hits in 39 innings with 45 K's and a minuscule 0.92 ERA. It has been a shaky start for Erick Fedde with the Cardinals since getting traded from the White Sox. He has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 14 innings in his last three starts coming in. Fedde has allowed 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 9 1/3 innings in two career starts against the Reds as well. The Cardinals have topped 4 runs just twice in their last eight games as they are really struggling at the plate right now. The Reds have scored at least 4 runs in six of their last eight games overall and are swinging the bats well. Bet the Reds Tuesday as our MLB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/+110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Cleveland and Chicago battle on Monday as the Guardians return home for a short 3 game series. Cleveland took the final 2 games of a 4 game set in Minnesota, which was huge for the confidence and morale of this team. They restored a 3.5 game lead in the division and they return home where they typically play well. Ben Lively gets the ball and he’s pitched very well at home overall. He’s been able to get this team deep into the game and he’ll typically allow only a couple runs. He’s been consistent and that’s been huge for this rotation so far. The Cleveland offense got rolling again Sunday and they will see Cubs ace Shota Imanaga. The good news here is that the Guardians have seemed to step up against good pitchers. Just last week we saw them get to both Burnes and Gallen, who are two of the best in the game. At plus money, at home, there’s value on the Cleveland Guardians.
NFL Preseason Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for August 11, 2024 )
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams
Bet: Los Angeles Rams +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Both teams have several holes to plug on the defensive side of the ball as this preseason gets underway. Dallas already lost Sam Williams for the season with a knee injury, taking another piece from the depth that they boasted a season ago. Knowing that Prescott isn’t going to play in the preseason makes things a bit dicier for the Cowboys as Rush and Lance aren’t going to set the world on fire. While the Rams don’t have much in the way of QB depth to scare anyone, we know that Dallas struggled to slow the run last season, especially when teams stayed committed to it. One need look no further than the Buffalo game last year for proof of that. Los Angeles has a solid, deep stable of running backs and they are at home here. Look for the Rams to at minimum, cover the line, and sprinkle the money line as well.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns
Bet: Green Bay Packers +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Browns have already stated that their first unit players will be extremely limited in this one, including backup QB Winston, who will be making his first appearance for his new team. On the other side, the Packers are gearing up for the opportunity to get their first teamers in motion. Head coach Matt LaFleur recently stated, “I think there's a lot of value in getting your mind right to play a football game,” via Clutch Points. While Cleveland is using this as an opportunity to make sure all of their banged up bodies are rested and ready to roll moving forward, it seems like Green Bay is taking advantage of the chance for some live-game action and now that Love is tied as the highest player in the game, he has to show up right away. Take the Packers.
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Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bet: Houston Texans -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Houston has the advantage of having already played a preseason contest heading into this game. The Texans are rolling out their starters, including Pro Bowl quarterback C.J. Stroud and All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Their presence on the field is a significant upgrade over the backups who managed to keep the score competitive in the Hall of Fame Game. Stroud and Diggs have been working diligently to build their chemistry, and their combined talent should provide a strong offensive push. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has emphasized the importance of live game reps for his starters. The focus on getting the starters valuable playing time suggests that the Texans are aiming for a strong performance. The Steelers will likely rotate their second-team defense, which will have to contend with the Texans' first-team offense. Last week in Canton, the Texans managed to score 17 points with backup quarterbacks Davis Mills and Case Keenum. With their starters playing, the offensive output is expected to increase, even if by 7-10 points, giving them a higher chance of covering the -2.5 spread. Lastly, Pittsburgh is resting several key veterans, which can impact their overall performance and cohesion. The absence of experienced players like T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, and Minkah Fitzpatrick means the Steelers may struggle to contain the Texans' offensive firepower in the first half. Look for the Texans to come up with the road victory in this contest as having a game, even a shortened one, under their belts proves to be critical.
NFL Preseason Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for August 8, 2024 )
Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants
Bet: New York Giants -3.5/-105 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) - NFL Preseason Game of the Month Winner
The Lions and the Giants played each other last year in the preseason. Detroit came away with the narrow 21-16 win. This year, we think the roles will be reversed with the Giants walking away winners in their home place. This preseason is much more valuable to the Giants than the Lions. Detroit has their roster, they know who will be starting week one. New York needs these reps to avoid last year’s disaster. Neither starting quarterback is expected to figure into this matchup. The Lions already announced that Goff will not play, and the Giants have been quiet about the potential of Jones playing. In all likelihood, this will be a battle of the backup quarterbacks, with Detroit rolling with Hooker and Sudfeld, and New York going with Locke and DeVito. The quality of back-up quarterbacks for the Giants outshines Detroit’s Nate Sudfield and Hendon Hooker. Drew Lock was drafted into the NFL to be a starting quarterback and still believes he can land a starting spot in the league. There were offseason rumors that Locke may be better for the offense than Daniel Jones, leaving the Giants with a difficult decision surrounding their 35-million-dollar quarterback. Locke will look to excel in this game, he will not be looking for check-downs to play it safe, he will want to air it out and make a statement in the first game of the preseason. Dan Campbell (3-6 SU) cares more about the regular season. Tommy DeVito excited New York with his play last season, and the Giants will be able to win this by more than a field goal. Take the Giants to cover the spread.
NFL Preseason Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for August 8, 2024 )
Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
Bet: New England Patriots -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Carolina Panthers may have Bryce Young entering Year 2, but the quarterback depth is a lot better overall for the New England Patriots. Bryce Young, Andy Dalton and rookie Jack Plummer are going to be a bit less than what Drake Maye, Jacoby Brissett and Joe Milton III can do here. With running back Jonathon Brooks on the NFI and not going to play in the preseason opener, that is tough to see what is going on. The Patriots defense is the best unit on the field as this New England defense could be a top-10 defense with the season going on and are facing a new system that Panthers coach Dave Canales is implementing. Go with the Pats to cover the spread at home here.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Bet: St. Louis Cardinals ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
At a very generous price, we'll take a flyer on the Cardinals laying an insurance run at home against the Rays on Wednesday. Newly-acquired starter Erick Fedde had a rough welcome to the Cardinals, allowing five earned runs over five innings in a loss to the division-rival Cubs last week. Noting that he had logged a 3.78 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 21 starts with the White Sox prior to the trade, I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Fedde has held current Rays hitters to just two hits in 22 career at-bats. Taj Bradley will counter for Tampa Bay. There's not a lot negative we can point to with Bradley as he's having a fine campaign. The Cardinals have had a much better time against right-handed pitching than left-handed this season, ranking 13th in weighed on base average vs. righties compared to 29th against southpaws. Note that Bradley gave up four earned runs in just five innings in a loss to the Marlins in his most recent start so he's by no means invincible. Take St. Louis Cardinals as our MLB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Bet: Chicago White Sox ML/+170 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We will be using the same philosophy with the White Sox tonight which have has lost 21 straight games, the longest losing streak in baseball in 36 years, and they have tied the all-time American League record for consecutive losses. Teams cannot will themselves to win but this is a record the White Sox do not want to be a part of and this streak is not going to last forever so why not tonight as they catch a break. Prior to last night, 16 of these losses have come against teams currently in playoff spots with the other four against Texas so it has been a brutal stretch. We have been high on Oakland recently as it has been playing well with an offense that has pushed its way up into the top 10 percentile in a lot of categories but when playing on the the Athletics, they have usually been sizable underdogs and now they are big favorites again tonight. Obviously the metrics favor them but we are playing the value in a pitching matchup that does not warrant this number as they got a great effort from JP Sears last night but we do not expect that tonight. Ross Stripling struggled mightily in his first start back in the rotation as he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings against the Angels but did bounce back in his last start as he only one run in 5.2 innings against San Francisco but still got hit with the loss as his offense behind him got nothing against Logan Webb. We played on him in that game as he was a +175 underdog so there was a ton of value there now it is a complete flip as he is as high as a -192 favorite. Jonathan Cannon was a scratch last night and now gets the ball for the White Sox tonight and he has been pitching well, allowing three runs or less in six of his last eight starts and only one of those was truly bad. Overall, he has a 4.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with a 4.22 xERA so he is pitching to expectations and faces an Oakland offense that did score five runs but has been falling off after a great July.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Bet: Houston Astros ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Astros have an opportunity to put the Rangers away with a strong series against the Rangers in this game. The two teams have split their ten games thus far this season. The Rangers come in as the more vulnerable team with a struggling bullpen and losses in four of their last five games. With Mahle making just his first start of the season and likely on a pitch count, the Rangers' bullpen will be taxed once again on Tuesday night. The Astros are battling the Mariners for the division lead and this is a game they have to have against the reeling Rangers. They have the advantage of sending the red-hot Valdez to the mound against Mahle. The Astros have won each of Valdez' last five starts and he consistently gets his team into the late innings with a team-high 11 quality starts. That will make the difference in this game with the Astros having an overall decided advantage on the mound. ake the Astros with the money line.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-105 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Kershaw has a losing record versus the Phillies, winning just four games in 16 starts. Sanchez won his lone start against the Dodgers earlier this season by going six innings and allowing two runs. The Phillies have won four straight and five of their previous six matchups with the Dodgers, including a three-game sweep in Philadelphia earlier this year. The Dodgers have failed to exceed three runs versus the Philadelphia pitching staff in their prior four matchups. While both teams rank high in multiple offensive categories, the Phillies have the superior pitching staff, ranking fifth in the league in ERA with 3.48 overall and seventh in road ERA with 3.65. The Dodgers have struggled recently, losing five of their previous eight games. Prior to their series with the A's, their pitching staff was struggling, giving up five runs or more to their opponents in five of six games. The Dodgers have struggled against the spread this season, losing at a 52% clip. The stats and trends strong support a victory for the visiting team on Tuesday. Take the Phillies.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Minnesota Twins ML/-125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Twins have won four straight games following a 1-3 run and they now trail the Guardians by 4.5 games in the American League Central with another series on tap they should take care of business with prior to a big set coming up against Cleveland. Minnesota has had an elite offense all season as its .756 OPS is No. 5 in baseball and recent form is right up there as since July 1, the Twins are No. 4 in WAR at 7.0, No. 4 in wRC+ at 129 and No. 3 in wOBA at .350 and they could not have a better matchup tonight. The Cubs are back in the running in the National League Wild Card race as they have won four of their last five games and are currently six games back which may be too far and this is not the series they need before facing the White Sox. The offense has been pretty good since the break on the top line but they still are ranked in the bottom half of the league in most metric categories. Since the All Star Break, they have an 89 RC+ which is No. 23 and face a pitcher coming into form. David Festa is back in the rotation as after two horrible starts in late June and early July, he had a solid long relief performance where he went 4.1 innings and allowed just one run on four hits and then tossed five innings in his last start, allowing two runs. His underlying metrics are really good and comparable to his Minor League numbers, namely his strikeout performances, and is still the No. 4 prospect in the organization so he is here for a reason. Kyle Hendricks has been all over the place this season as he has a 6.86 ERA and 5.37 FIP and while they are comparable to Festa, his numbers are over many more innings. He has a bad K% as his velocity is way down and now faces a potent offense which he has seen similarly only once in his last 10 starts.
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City
Bet: Boston Red Sox ML/+115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City used to be a nightmare destination for the Red Sox. Those Red Sox teams relied on power to win games but this version of the Red Sox is more equipped to handle the spacious confines of the Royals' home park. The Red Sox possess one of the fastest teams in baseball with Jared Duran, Cedanne Rafaela, and David Hamilton all with at least 15 steals on the season. That trio also has tightened up the Red Sox defense, one that struggled in the beginning of the season. While Royals' starter Singer has thrown seven innings in four of his last five starts, the lone start he failed to do so was against the Red Sox. Singer lasted just 2.2 innings and allowed eight hits and four runs before being pulled. Singer is not quite the same swing-and-miss pitcher he was a few seasons ago and that plays very well into the Red Sox strategy of hit-and-run offense. Paxton has won three of his last five starts and pitched relatively well in his Red Sox opener before a couple of routine plays turned into errors that ruined his debut with the Sox. The Red Sox have one of the best road records in baseball and they will continue their winning ways on Monday night.
Plays released for August 4, 2024 - NO PLAYS
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML/-112 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Arizona jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the first inning and barely held on for a 9-8 win on Friday. The Diamondbacks have won four straight to get to eight games over .500 and have moved into second place in the National League West, trailing the Dodgers by just four games. They do have a pitching disadvantage tonight which is why they are coming in as slight underdogs. The Pirates have lost two straight games following a three-game winning streak AND ARE STILL RIGHT IN THE MIX. They are a game over .500 and sit just three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. With Paul Skenes going tomorrow, this is a big game to try and take the series before hosting a hot San Diego team. Jordan Montgomery is not having a very good season based on his top line numbers with a 6.51 ERA but he does have a 5.29 xERA so there is likely positive progression but certainly not much. He got rolled by Washington in his last start as he allowed six runs over four innings including giving up five in the first inning. He finished with just one strikeout and this has become a major problem this season as he has a 14.2% K% which is No. 118 out of 119 starters which have tossed at least 70 innings. Mitch Keller is having a great season with a 3.30 ERA through 21 starts which is a career low when making more than 10 starts. He has been excellent at home with a 2.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and while this is a tough matchup with Arizona hitting righties well, he shut them down in his last starts, allowing two runs over seven innings and that was on the road. He does not strike out of ton of batters but he does not walk many either as he is No. 40 in BB% among those 119 pitchers. The right-hander has been overshadowed by Paul Skenes, but make no mistake, this guy is the real deal. He just carved up the Diamondbacks last weekend, limiting them to two earned runs over 7.0 innings. The Pirates are now 4-0 in Keller’s last four outings and we are taking the Pirates as our MLB Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Bet: Boston Red Sox ML/-105 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We favor the Boston Red Sox today in their matchup against the Texas Rangers. Starting pitcher Kutter Crawford has had a rough couple of starts entering this game, but he did face off against two of the more lethal lineups in the sport with the Dodgers and Yankees as his opponents. Those teams rank 8th and 4th in wOBA against right-handed pitching since July 1 respectively, but now Crawford faces a Rangers lineup ranking 23rd in wOBA during that same sample. Crawford has had a very effective season for the Red Sox, consistently providing the team with 5 or 6 competitive innings and giving his team a chance to win. Boston made deals at the deadline to bolster their bullpen, and their lineup is currently one of the hotter units in the sport. Boston against right-handed pitching since July 1 ranks 1st in wOBA, 4th in hard-hit rate, and their wRC+ leads MLB at 150 during that span. They are simply ripping the cover off the ball, and multiple sources are providing big numbers from their lineup during this stretch. The Red Sox will face Jose Urena from the Rangers today, and this is a matchup they should be able to take advantage of. Urena has been a bullpen piece for the majority of the season, making 19 of his 25 appearances in a relief role so far. He was stretched out to 67 and 60 pitches in his last two outings, and we should expect 4 or 5 innings from the right-hander. We like the matchup for Boston across the board and expect a win in this spot. Take Boston as our MLB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels
Bet: New York Mets ML/-129 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) - Bonus Play Winner
The New York Mets are on the road to take on the Los Angeles Angels. Newly acquired Paul Blackburn is expected to start for the Mets. The Angels will go with Tyler Anderson on the mound. Blackburn is 4-2 with a 4.41 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP, in nine starts this season. The Mets have been in or near the top in both pitching and offensive production. Anderson is 8-9 with a 2.96 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP. The Angels have been poor all offensively and they will be without Mike trout for the rest of the season which just makes matters worse. As well as the offense the Angels’ pitching staff has been bad as well with Anderson being the only bright spot. New York is fighting to make the playoffs, while the Angels have no chance of making the postseason. The loss of Trout for the season adds more woes to an offense that is in the bottom 10 of most offensive categories. This is a perfect spot for the Mets to pick up a win as they try to improve on their playoff standing.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) - Bonus Play Loser
The Pittsburgh Pirates are 13-6 in their last 19 games overall and making their run at the wild card. They would be a dangerous team if they got in the playoffs with what they have at the top of the rotation in Skenes, Keller and Jones. But it has been Luis Ortiz who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball and the one that they don't talk about, which is why he is a home underdog today when he shouldn't be. Ortiz is 5-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 78 2/3 innings for the Pirates this season. Brandon Pfaadt is 5-6 with a 3.92 ERA in 21 starts for the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings of a 9-5 win over the Pirates in his last start on July 27th. We expect them to tag him again tonight. Bet the Pirates Friday.
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Bet: Minnesota Twins -1.5 RL/-135 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) - Bonus Play Winner
The Chicago White Sox travel to Minnesota to take on the Twins on Friday night. The Chicago White Sox are 27-84 overall this year while Minnesota comes in with a 59-48 overall record on the season. Joe Ryan is 6-7 with a 3.77 ERA overall this year. His record is not too good but appears he has lacked run support which shouldn't be a problem today against the White Sox. The White Sox are 10-44 on the road this year. White Sox are 22-81 as an underdog this season. White Sox are 20-70 against right handed starters this year. The White Sox have lost 17 in a row overall and they are 0-9 last 9 road games. Minnesota is 9-0 last 9 games at home vs the White Sox.
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Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 RL/+100 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Braves have dominated the head-to-head series this season, going 5-1 in their six games against the Marlins. Atlanta finished their road trip on a 4-1 run, and they return home where they are 30-21 this season. Miami is 18-34 on the road, the second-worst mark in the National League. Meyer faced the Braves way back in April, his last start before being shipped down to Triple-A, but he was fearless against them, striking out seven and allowing just a run over six innings. However, he won’t be backed by as sturdy a lineup this time, and this is also just his second start since being recalled. Morton was beaten around a bit by the Marlins back in April when he gave up six runs, seven hits, and a walk in 5 2/3 innings. He will be facing a much different lineup this time around. The veteran is also coming off of his worst start of the season and he has done extremely well to bounce back from rough outings this year. The Braves are in a heated postseason battle, and this is one of those must-win series, which starts here in the wake of their win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Four of Atlanta’s wins over the Marlins this season have been by at least three runs. Take the Braves with the run line as our MLB Destroyer Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed Play.
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Colorado Rockies vs LA Angels
Bet: Colorado Rockies ML/+128 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Colorado was coming off a solid homestand by its standards as it went 3-3 but hitting the road is not a good thing which is the case at the start of this road trip where the Rockies have opened 0-5. They have been a disaster on the road all season at 14-41 yet the price is not in line with that as Colorado is catching a short number similar to last night where it ended up blowing an early 6-2 lead. The Angels have won two straight following a three-game losing streak which came on the heels of a four-game winning run so it has been a streaky stretch. They allowed only three runs total against a below average Mariners offense but have allowed 53 runs in their other eight games (6.6 rpg) since the All Star Break and their offense has bailed them out over this recent two-game stretch. Kyle Freeland was on a roll prior to his last start as he had gone five straight outings allowing two runs or less following being out of the rotation for over two months but he struggled at San Francisco where he allowed six runs over four innings. We expect him to settle down here as he has a good matchup against an Angels team that is No. 19 in baseball with a .705 OPS against lefties while going 8-10 against left-handed starters. Davis Daniel was recalled last week from Triple-A but was not used out of the bullpen as was the plan as he was not needed so he will be making a spot start Wednesday He made a splash in his Major League debut at the end of June as he tossed eight shutout innings against Detroit but it was downhill from there as he allowed 11 runs over nine innings in his next two starts in early July and was sent back down to the minors. He has positive progression numbers but faces another streaky but tough offense.
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New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: New York Yankees ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Over the last seven days, the Yankees have emerged as one of the hottest teams in baseball. Was the recent addition of Jazz Chisholm Jr. before the trade deadline the spark the Yankees needed to ignite their offense? It appears so, but today’s Yankees vs Phillies prediction puts bettors in position to take one of the hottest offenses at plus money in tonight’s matchup. With the Yankees offense rolling, they’ll look for their fourth straight win as they prepare to face the Phillies tonight. The Yankees hit six homers in last night’s game, and 15 in their previous six games. They’re batting .294, have an OPS of .972, and are averaging 7.5 runs in their last six games. The Phillies hope to get things going against Cole tonight as they bat just .228, have an OPS of .697 and average 3.8 runs per game. Cole is 3-2 this season with a 5.40 ERA and will take the mound for the Yankees. In 35 innings pitched, he struck out 38 and walked 12. The Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound, who is 11-4 this season with a 3.44 ERA. In 130.2 innings pitched, Nola has struck out 126 and walked 31. The way the Yankees have been crushing the ball in their last four games, and with a team seeing the ball as well as they’re right now, we just can’t fade them, which is why we`ll back the underdog as our best bet for tonight’s matchup.
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Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Baseball fans are in for an exciting game tonight as two National League teams get ready to duke it out, looking to keep things rolling in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, the Brewers have been the better team, going 5-3, while the Braves have gone 3-6. For today’s Braves vs Brewers prediction, the Brewers are the favorites, and for all the right reasons. The Brewers have been the better-hitting team all season, but they are batting .261 in their last nine games, averaging 4.6 runs per game. In those nine games, the Brewers have belted 12 home runs. As for the Braves, they are batting .220 in their last 10 games, averaging 4.0 runs, with 18 home runs. For tonight’s pitching matchup, the Braves will send the rookie Darius Vines to the mound, who is 0-1 this season with a 7.82 ERA. In Vines’ last start, he went just three innings against the Pirates, giving up six earned runs on six hits. The Brewers will send Colin Rea to the mound, who is 9-3 this season with a 3.60 ERA. Rea has thrown 110 innings this season, striking out 84, and has given up only 14 home runs. The Brewers have the clear advantage on the mound this evening and have been the better-hitting team all year, too. Factor in all of the injuries that Atlanta has endured, and this feels like an easy choice to back Milwaukee at this relatively short money line price.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Cincinnati Reds have not been able to win games with enough consistency. They have lost four of their last six games including a sweep against the Nationals last weekend. The Rays are doing all they can to stay in the wildcard picture. They are only four games out and stand at 5-3 in their last eight home games. Furthermore, Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott has squandered five runs in his last two outings spanning 10 innings. Rays pitcher Zack Littell has been reliable at home, conceded three or fewer runs in five consecutive home outings, and has posted a 3.36 ERA in 10 outings at home this season.
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Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/+125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Blue Jays took the opener of this series but we expect they'll have a tough time repeating that performance on Saturday afternoon. Kevin Gausman will start for Toronto. He's been getting hit hard fairly consistently in recent starts as his FIP has risen to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.30 - both numbers are north of his career averages. This isn't a favorable matchup for Gausman as current Rangers hitters have posted a batting average of .288 and an OPS of .887 in 104 career at-bats against him. Michael Lorenzen will counter for Texas. His no-hitter last season was a one-off as he's not going to wow anyone with his pitching arsenal. The Rangers have won two of his last three starts and he has posted a respectable 3.77 ERA and 1.27 WHIP away from home. That's good enough for us as he faces an inconsistent Blue Jays offense.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Houston Astros ML/-125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Houston Astros have the right pitcher on the hill in the opener against the Dodgers. Valdez is a savvy veteran pitcher used to performing in big games against quality teams. He proved that over the weekend by outdueling Gilbert and the Mariners in a 4-2 win. He now battles against youngster Stone in a crucial game for the Astros, who are trying to stay ahead of the Mariners and the hard-charging Rangers in the AL West. The Astros have won each of Valdez' last five starts coming into this game. Valdez also does a great job keeping the ball in the park, allowing just nine home runs this season, which is critical against a Dodgers team that has 139 home runs this season. He'll do his part and the Astros will push across enough runs to take the series opener. Take the Astros with the money line.
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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Bet: New York Mets ML/+110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Braves are having a great season but the Mets look to step up and take over this game at home. The Mets should constantly drive in runs with Mark Vientos, Francisco Lindor, and the rest of the lineup making contact and putting together strong plate appearances. The Mets should limit the Braves lineup, which averages only 4.22 runs per game, with Luis Severino building off of two starts where he's only allowed two runs and pitching multiple scoreless innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead. The Mets should win the game and provide great odds in the process as home Underdogs. Take the Mets money line as home Underdogs.
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Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies
Bet: Over 10.5/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Backing over 10.5 runs at -120 odds looks promising for our Red Sox vs Rockies prediction on Wednesday. Both teams have shown offensive strength this season, with the Red Sox averaging 4.67 runs per game (9th in MLB) and the Rockies scoring 4.73 runs at home. Coors Field’s thin air typically boosts scoring, as seen in Monday’s 17-run series opener. Starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Cal Quantrill have been inconsistent, adding to the potential for high scoring. Pivetta struggles against Colorado with a 13.85 ERA in 4 career appearances, while Quantrill holds a 5.01 ERA versus Boston. These factors combine to create favorable conditions for an over bet in this Red Sox vs Rockies matchup. Looking at recent performance, Boston has been hot at the plate, scoring at least 5 runs in 6 of their last 7 games. The Rockies, while struggling overall, tend to perform better offensively at home. While getting blanked yesterday, we don’t foresee the same happening today with this pitchers’ matchup. Boston’s are well capable of scoring runs away from Fenway Park as well. With both teams fighting for different objectives — Boston for a wild card spot and Colorado playing spoiler — we can expect aggressive offensive approaches. All things considered, our Red Sox vs Rockies best bet is for the over to cash.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins
Bet: Minnesota Twins ML/-105 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Ranger Suarez limped into the all-star break as his form fell from Cy Young contender to a below average arm. His last 4 outings before the break resulted in 19 runs allowed, and his quality of contact slipped dramatically. After allowing 5 or fewer hits in 10 of his first 13 starts this season, Ranger has allowed 6 or more in each of his last 7 starts. With multiple walks allowed in 4 of the last 6 as well, Ranger is struggling to limit base runners. Suarez is never someone who has thrived on pure stuff, as he relies on deception and movement to fool his opposition. Now that teams have seemingly figured something out it will be interesting to see how he bounces back. He draws a tough matchup against a Twins lineup that has had a good amount of success against lefties this season. Despite a couple absences in their order due to injury, we expect the Twins to have a productive day offensively regardless. Bailey Ober will start for the Twins today, making his 19th trip to the mound this year. Despite his ERA sitting at 4.14, Ober has pitched similarly to how he did last season. His 1.08 WHIP and 3.63 xERA are nearly identical to his production in those areas last season, while his strikeout numbers have actually taken a step forward. Ober entered the break in good form with 3 or fewer earned runs allowed in each of his last 7 starts, and has went 6+ innings in each of last 5 starts. Give us the Twins -105.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bet: Detroit Tigers ML/+106 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Detroit Tigers are being undervalued coming in here as a small underdog. They have taken three of four meetings with the Toronto Blue Jays this season, including the last three straight. Believe it or not, they ended the first-half of the regular season, the hottest team in baseball, winning eight of their final 10 outings. They can certainly put some more distance between themselves and the AL Central’s last place, Chicago White Sox. However, they are just 5.0 games behind the Division’s third place team, the Kansas City Royals. And let's face it, the Minnesota Twins have been hit or miss, which are in second place. And, although overall possessing one of the best records in all the baseball, the Cleveland Guardians, which are atop the Central, have shown signs of cracking. The Tigers certainly have a chance to better their situation in the competitive Division if they start the second-half of the regular season the way they ended the first-half. Make no mistake of it, just because the Toronto Blue Jays play in traditionally the most competitive Division in baseball, the American League East, they would still be struggling in any other Division. They finished the first-half of the campaign splitting out their last 10 outings. Not only does Detroit possess a better offense, they also possess a better pitching staff. Speaking of pitching, Jack Flaherty and Chris Bassitt are scheduled today. The Detroit right-hander has pitched solid thus far, going 6-5 with a 3.13 ERA this season. When he travels, his numbers look even more impressive, going 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA on the road in 2024. The Toronto right-hander is an overall, 8-7 with a 3.52 ERA. This does include a 5-4 record with a 3.83 ERA at home. The major difference here is Flaherty getting better as the season is progressing, going 4-1 over his last five turns, while Bassett, although 2-1 in his last seven outings, the team has dropped five of those seven starts. You've got a hotter team with a surging starter on the mound here. Take the Tigers as our MLB Invincible Game of the Month No Limit Play.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Bet: New York Yankees -1.5 RL/+125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) - Bonus Play - Winner
The Yankees and Rays have already met nine times this season with the Yankees winning five of those games. The Yankees took two of three games at the Stadium in their only home series with the Rays. Cole comes into this contest with a full week's rest and coming off his best performance since returning from the IL. Cole's velocity appeared up against the Orioles and he walked just one batter while striking out seven, his second-best total of the season. Efflin also is coming off a strong start, a 2-1 loss to these same Yankees in Tampa Bay. He went seven innings and allowed just two runs, only one of which was earned. We are giving the edge to the Yankees in this game with an offense that seemed to find its footing in Baltimore last weekend. The decision to move rookie first baseman Ben Rice to the clean-up spot has given Judge added protection in the lineup. 2B Gleybar Torres has also found his stroke, hitting .350 in the last seven games, while CF Trent Grisham has given the Bombers another effective lefty bat in the lineup with a batting average of .333 in the last week. The Rays have not been the team we have been used to seeing from them, and we trust Cole to get the job done more than Eflin.
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners
Bet: Houston Astros ML/+110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) - Bonus Play - Winner
The Houston Astros take on the Seattle Mariners in an AL West clash to get things started up again after the All Star break. Even though Seattle is sending out their ace in Luis Castillo (3.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), the value lies with the visitors. Although Houston starter Hunter Brown’s numbers (4.39 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) aren’t as attractive as his counterpart, he has steadily improved throughout the course of the season after a horrendous April. He’s recorded a quality start in 6 of his last 7 outings including 4 scoreless starts. The righty also gets better throughout the game, with a .295 OBA the 1st time through the order compared to a .225 the 3rd time through. He should find success against a Mariners lineup that ranks 22nd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Castillo is a quality pitcher, but Houston has the favorable matchup considering they mash righties, ranking 6th with a 110 wRC+ against RHP. Furthermore, they have been the more reliable offense here lately, with a top-10 wRC+ mark over the last 30 days compared to Seattle down in 23rd. Neither team has a clear bullpen advantage, and this pitching duel might be more evenly matched than one would assume. With all things considered, we are relying on Houston’s bats and will take the Astros to get the win.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Bet: Boston Red Sox ML/-130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
As we head into the all-star break, the Kansas City Royals face the Boston Red Sox. Both of these teams have played themselves into the playoff hunt at the break, and perhaps both of them unexpectedly. As we head into Sunday’s matchup, a quick glance at the game logs of the starting pitchers would imply a heavy advantage for the Royals, but we are going to go the other way. Our Royals vs Red Sox best bet is Boston on the money line. Brady Singer will start for KC, and he has had an extraordinary first half. With a sub-3.00 ERA, he is one of the reasons the Royals are in the hunt. Sure, the underlying metrics say he has been just plain lucky, but results are results. Still, we think Boston and its stack of lefties are poised to have better success than most. On the other side, Brayan Bello takes the ball. Bello was supposed to be a budding ace, but he has struggled all season. There are lots of signs that he is really close to figuring it out though. He has electric stuff, and it is only a matter of time before it all clicks. Boston has the better lineup (KC is very dependent on just a couple of hitters), and the Sox have the better bullpen. We think it is well worth the play with a reasonable price tag.
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Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bet: Washington Nationals ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Washington Nationals have a big advantage on the mound over the Milwaukee Brewers today and should not be underdogs as a result. They pulled off the 5-2 upset over the Brewers as +238 dogs yesterday and are live dogs again today. Dallas Keuchel is one of the worst starters in baseball. He went 9-9 with a 5.28 ERA in 30 starts in 2021, 2-9 with a 9.20 ERA in 14 starts in 2022 and 2-1 with a 5.97 ERA in 37 2/3 innings in 2023. Kuechel is 0-0 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.68 WHIP thus far in 2024, allowing 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 23 base runners in 13 2/3 innings. Rookie Mitchell Parker is proving he belongs. He is 5-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Nationals. Any time Kuechel is favored we are going to be looking to fade him this season. It's amazing the Brewers couldn't find someone better to fill out the rotation. Bet the Nationals Saturday.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
This should be a great matchup on Friday night as one of the league’s best offenses squares off against the A.L. Cy Young frontrunner, Tarik Skubal (+110 to win award). While the Dodgers have struggled recently, there’s just no way that we can pass up on a plus-money payout with them. Skubal has been phenomenal this year, but he’s tasked with taking on a Los Angeles lineup that has been very good despite missing Mookie Betts. Over the last 14 days, the Dodgers are seventh in Fangraphs’ wRC+ (116) and eighth in wOBA (.330). Against lefties specifically, they’re the league’s best offense, sitting in first in both of those respective categories (128, .348) over the full season. Even if Skubal turns in a respectable outing, Detroit’s bullpen has slid into the middle of the pack statistically. They’re 18th in bullpen ERA (4.14) and 14th in WHIP (1.25), which means Los Angeles should have chances to score late. We think it’s well worth a big bet on the plus-money payout with the Dodgers in this spot.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks ML/+110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Braves aren't consistent at the dish, especially on the road (.226 BA/.292 OBP/.379 SLG/.671 OPS), while the D-Backs are crushing the baseball. They slashed .269/.341/.433/.773 in June and haven't slowed down in July (.286/.352/.523/.874). Morton has been solid but not spectacular and is coming off a poor performance in his last start. Cecconi has struggled at home, but just 4 of his 12 starts this season have been at Chase Field, and he's due for positive regression, as his xERA is 1.99 points lower than his actual ERA. If the Braves don't get to him early, they could find it challenging to keep pace with the scorching hot D-Backs tomorrow. Bet on the home team to win straight-up on Wednesday!
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LA Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-135 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Heading into the last week before the All Star break, both of these teams have comfortable leads in their Divisions with the Phillies sporting the best record in the NL and the Dodgers not too far behind them. So this is a huge three-game series at Citizens Bank Park and it will begin with Philly sending out its ace RH, Zack Wheeler. With a hefty contract, Wheeler will be a Phillie for a long time and he's making the team feel good about spending all that money on him as 2024 has been arguably the best first half of a season he's ever had. The 34-year-old is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA in 18 starts covering just under 112 innings. And if you think those stats are good, check out these numbers here at home: 6-2 with a 1.76 ERA in 10 starts covering 66 1/3 innings. In his two starts vs. L.A. since joining the Phils, Wheeler has allowed three runs on 11 hits in 11 1/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. And Philadelphia is 2-0 in those starts. Wheeler is also 9-1 in his last 10 decisions. Take the Phillies.
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Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 RL/+125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We are betting the Reds to cover the -1.5 run line at home against the Rockies. For starters, Reds are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series. We really like Cincinnati to be locked in for the start of this series after getting swept at home by the Tigers over the weekend. What better team to get right against than the Rockies. Monday’s game provides a great chance for the Reds to get back into the wild-card race. Cincinnati will shut down the Rockies and cruise to an easy win. While the Rockies have won five of their last seven entering Sunday, the fact remains that this game is on the road as opposed to Coors Field. Colorado is just 12-31 as the visiting team this season and with as poorly as Hudson has fared of late, it’s going to be tough sledding. He has dropped his last five starts and in his last three starts, opposing hitters have a Barry Bonds-esque .530 on-base percentage over his 12.2 innings of work. On the flip side, the Reds will be starting one of their best pitchers Andrew Abbott. Cincinnati has won five of his last six starts and he has an ERA of 2.16 against the National League West division. With Colorado struggling to score on the road, you have to give the upper hand to Cincinnati in this contest.
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Minnesota Twins -1.5 RL/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Twins have won four of their last five road games. They are playing very well offensively and scored at least five runs in four of those games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve had a lot of success batting against right-handers and Flexen has struggled on the mound, giving up 17 runs in his last four starts. He gave up seven runs in his last three home starts, and with Chicago having one of the worst bullpens in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Twins in this game. The White Sox have lost six of their last nine home games. Flexen has failed to win in his prior three starts versus Minnesota. The Twins have dominated the White Sox recently, winning eight straight against them, including four in a row at Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has won only four times in their last 20 chances versus the Twins over the past two seasons. They have lost four of their last six games overall. Minnesota has won at a 72.7% clip in their prior 11 games in Chicago. They have won five of their last seven contests overall and four of five on the road. Minnesota hurlers have produced a 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against White Sox hitters in their last 10 games. White Sox will struggle offensively in this game because Minnesota’s pitching has been very good, with the team giving up seven runs in their last three road games. They gave up 12 runs in three games against the White Sox when they faced them in April and will keep their offense in check once again. Minnesota is 51-39 overall this year while the White Sox come in with a 26-66 overall record on the season. Chris Flexen is 2-7 with a 5.08 ERA overall this year. The White Sox are 16-29 at home this season. Minnesota is 6-2 last 8 games overall. Minnesota is 4-1 last 5 road games. Minnesota is 8-0 last 8 games overall vs White Sox and 14-1 last 15 overall vs the White Sox. Minnesota is 7-1 last 8 games when playing at the White Sox. Take Minnesota on the Run Line tonight.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/-135 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
This should be a fun series opener on Monday night, but when the dust settles, we think it’s pretty obvious that the right move is to back the Rangers in this game. They may finally be turning the corner following their World Series hangover, as they’re coming off a 3-0 weekend where they out-scored the Rays 20-5! Meanwhile, the Angels are just 1-6 SU over their last seven games. Furthermore, the Halos are opting for a starting pitcher, Davis Daniel, who has just 25.2 MLB innings under his belt. This may be a tall task for the right-hander as he takes on a Texas offense that’s fifth in Fangraphs’ wOBA (.348) and sixth in wRC+ (125) over the last seven days. Also, Daniel just got shelled for five runs (four earned) against the Athletics in his previous start. Texas likely won’t need much offense to secure the win in this spot, and we think they should manage to score enough to cruise to an easy win.
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Bet: Boston Red Sox ML/+115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
There's no reason to trust the Yankees right now. Friday made them 1-8 in their last nine home games. Gil has a 14.90 ERA since beating Boston and the Red Sox have tagged the Yankees for at least five runs in three straight matchups. The bullpen blew Friday's game. Boston's offense shouldn't have any issues. On the other side, Crawford and his 2.70 road ERA are up against an offense that has only scored more than four runs twice in their past nine games. He should slow them down before Boston's bullpen keeps the Yankees in check again. The Red Sox are the better bet to win this game.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics
Bet: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 RL/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Baltimore’s pitchers were left scratching their heads yesterday as they struggled to find ways to get the A’s hitters out. The A’s hit five home runs and scored 19 runs in yesterday’s beat down, and the Orioles will be looking to limit that in today’s matchup. Attempting to keep the A’s hitters in the park this afternoon will be the right-hander Grayson Rodriguez who is 10-3 this season with a 3.45 ERA. In Grayson’s last start he threw 6.1 scoreless innings against the Mariners, striking out eight. For the A’s, they’ll be sending Mitch Spence to the mound who is 5-4 this season with a 4.15 ERA. In Spence’s last start he threw 5.1 innings against the Angels, striking out five, and gave up only one earned run. In the last 15 days, both teams have very similar hitting statistics. For the Orioles, they’re hitting .260, averaging 4.1 runs per game, belted 21 home runs and 55 RBIs. For the A’s, they’re hitting .225, averaging 4.5 runs per game, belting 21 home runs and 57 RBIs. The Orioles are in first in the AL East for a reason, and the A’s are in last in the AL West for a reason. Simply put, we trust Grayson on the mound more than we do Spence, which is why we are backing Baltimore money line as my best bet for today’s matchup.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/-130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
While Cleveland starter Allen has not been lights out by any means this season, he still has managed eight wins and the Guardians have won three of his last five starts. SF starter Harrison returns to the hill for the first time since June 10th and will likely be somewhat limited on the hill. The good news for the Giants is that Harrison's issues were ankle-related as opposed to arm-related. He'll likely be limited due to stamina but there will be no restrictions based on arm issues. Allen has had issues with the long ball but the Giants' lineup is nearly as banged up as their rotation so he should be able to get by on Saturday. We are going to lean toward the Guardians, the most consistent team in the American League. Take Cleveland with the money line.
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New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML/-125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The New York Mets invade PNC Park in the Steel City on Friday evening, and they’ll be tasked with trying to top rookie RHP Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates. We have our Mets vs Pirates best bet for the game. Firstly, the Mets were on the short end of a 1-0 loss Thursday afternoon against the Washington Nationals in the nation’s capital, and New York has dropped 2 in a row and 4 of the past 6 outings. The good news is that the Mets have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 2 of the past 3 games, but the bad news is that New York was shut out for the first time since May 28 against the Dodgers. The last time the Mets were shut out, they followed it up with an uninspiring 10-3 loss May 29, also against Dodger Blue. The Pirates were swept at Citi Field from April 15-17, but that was before the Skenes era began. This team is just 4 games under .500, holding their own in the NL Central, although they have cooled off a bit lately. Pittsburgh has lost the past 2 starts by Skenes, but it’s mostly due to a lack of run support, managing just 1 run in each of those outings. Pittsburgh is 4-2 in his past 6 starts overall and We expect them to perform well once again.
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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Bet: Washington Nationals -105/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
It's tough to bet against Jake Irvin, who had a superb June (2.31 ERA). He also has a 2.53 ERA in nine daytime starts this season. He can put together an effective start against the Mets and give the bullpen a shorter leash. The main issue for Washington in this series has been maintaining a lead for nine innings. Scoring more would help, and they're facing Jose Quintana. He has a 5.59 ERA against the NL East and a 5.63 ERA on the road. The Nats score early and hold on this time to finally beat the Mets at home.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -130/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Cubs lost Game 1 of this series and they only have three wins in their last 11 games. On the other side of the coin, the Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have the most wins in the Majors. Wheeler gave up three runs in his last start and he has given up more than two runs in only one of his last seven outings. He will have another good outing facing a Cubs’ team that has only averaged 2.9 runs over the last nine games and only ranks 20th in runs scored. Imanaga gave up three runs in his last outing and gave up 10 in his previous one. After a long streak of solid outings, he has given up at least five runs in three of his last six outings. Even shorthanded Philly will get to him in this game for a few runs. That will be enough, as the Phillies will get the W and send Chicago to their third loss in a row.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
Bet: Colorado Rockies +1.5 RL/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Milwaukee has a 5-11 run line record as road favorites this season. Colorado is 19-19 RL as home underdogs. We value a wager on the Rockies to cover the run line at -105 odds. Milwaukee hasn't been a winning RL bet as road favorites and Wilson has struggled away from home. His 4.65 Expected ERA (xERA) indicates negative regression is coming, too. Colorado slashes .265 BA/.326 OBP/.431 SLG/.757 OPS at Coors Field and .255/.316/.409/.725 in night games. The Brewers slash .235/.316/.360/.676 vs. left-handers with a 26.7% strikeout rate. Gomber has been solid at home this year and hasn't faced Milwaukee in a couple of seasons, which works in his favor, in our opinion. If he outpitches Wilson, we feel confident the Rockies will win straight-up or at least cover in Monday night's game.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Bet: New York Yankees ML/-145 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
Yankees fans were holding their breath last night as Aaron Judge took a pitch off of his left hand, but thankfully for the Yankees, it came back negative. We don’t know if Judge will be in tonight’s lineup, but that isn’t going change our Orioles vs Yankees prediction simply because New York has its ace coming back, Gerrit Cole. Cole is set to take the mound for the first time this year after he pitched 4.1 scoreless innings and struck out 10 batters last Friday in his Triple-A start. All signs point to Cole making his return to the Yankees on Wednesday night. He would be working on his traditional four-day rest and has looked dominant at each level of the minor leagues he's pitched in during his three rehab starts. The Yankees could decide to give Cody Poteet a fifth start and he has certainly been effective with a record of 3-0 in four games and an ERA of 2.14. The Yankees can be conservative with Cole but the veteran appears ready. Given that he will be on a pitch count, Poteet will be ready to back him up in this game. The Orioles will hand the ball to young righty Povich on Wednesday night. The youngster will certainly be under the gun making his first career start at Yankee Stadium. We are going with the Yankees here based on the likely return of Cole giving the team a bump, the uncertainty of a young pitcher making his Yankee Stadium debut, and the Yankees' ability to hit at home. Take the Yankees with the money line.
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San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1 alternate run line/-146 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The San Diego Padres, are in a funk and have lost their L/3 games, and are fade material in their current form. Philadelphia has a 47-24 record overall and a 27-10 record at home and must be respected here as hosts, even though they have struggled of late. The Phillies also have the best team ERA in the NL at 3.18. Meanwhile, San Diego is 19-17 in away games and 37-38 overall. The Phillies have won each of their last 10 games at Citizens Bank Park against NL West opponents with a below .500 record. The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five road games after playing the previous day.The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last four games against the Padres. PHILADELPHIA is 29-11 against the money line against right-handed starters this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +1.9. PHILADELPHIA is 30-10 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.5. PHILADELPHIA is 21-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with the average rpg diff registering in at +2.4.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Baltimore Orioles -148/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Orioles have won three straight games and nine of their last 11 road games. They are playing well offensively and scored at least five runs in five straight games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Pepiot has been shaky on the mound in recent starts, giving up at least three runs in three of his last four starts. He gave up eight runs in his last three home starts, and with Tampa Bay having one of the worst bullpens in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Orioles in this game. The Rays have lost three straight games and four of their last six home games. They are struggling offensively and scored only five runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because they haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Burnes has done a good job on the mound for the Orioles, giving up only seven runs in his last five starts. He gave up four runs in his last two road starts, and with Baltimore having the seventh-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Tampa Bay’s offense in check. Go with Baltimore to cover the money line.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
Bet: Dallas Mavericks +7/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Push
Already after Game 1, people are wondering whether they overestimated the Mavs’ strength coming into this series. Dallas got absolutely smoked on Thursday night, falling behind by 17 points in the 1st quarter and they never recovered from it. Luka Doncic did his part by scoring 30 and grabbing 10 boards, but the rest of the team didn’t provide him with the necessary boost. For Game 2 the Mavs have to fix their three-point shooting, after going just 7-for-27 from downtown. Most importantly though, the assists have to go up, because if they finish with single-digit dimes as a team they’ll be toast in Game 2 as well. The bench scored 20 points, but most of those came in garbage time when they were down by as many as 25 points in the 4th quarter. Boston could not have performed any better in the series opener as they were firing on all cylinders and everything was going in early. That gave them the ultimate confidence as the game progressed, especially from Kristaps Porzingis who came off the bench and scored 20 points in 21 minutes played. All 5 starters also scored in double figures, led by Jaylen Brown who had 22 on the night. And that’s the strength of the Celtics which got them to this point, as their best player Jayson Tatum scored just 16 points and yet they dominated with an 18-point victory on the biggest stage. If we were head coach Joe Mazzulla, we wouldn’t change much for Game 2 apart from perhaps focusing a bit more on helping Tatum get better shots instead of turning the ball over 6 times. If you would have watched Game 1 in a vacuum you would probably think these two teams are miles apart quality-wise. But, these are the NBA Finals and Dallas will not role over that easily in Game 2. This was their 2nd largest defeat of the postseason and they are yet to lose consecutive games this postseason. We are taking the Mavs to bounce back.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -135/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Miami saw their four-game win streak snapped with the loss Sunday and they hope to get back on track. Rogers did earn his first win of the season in his last start but that came against an anemic Detroit lineup that has been dormant for long stretches of the season. The Marlins have had a tough time in the run prevention department this year, especially at home, which doesn’t bode well against a pretty effective Milwaukee lineup. Gasser has been very solid in his two major league starts and facing a Miami team that has been inconsistent at best should play right in his wheelhouse. Look for the Brewers to come up with the victory in this contest. Robert Gasser is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his two starts for the Brewers this season. Trevor Rogers is 1-6 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his nine starts for the Marlins this season. Rogers is 1-2 with a 10.13 ERA and 2.53 WHIP in his last three starts while giving up 12 earned runs, 27 base runners and 3 home runs in 10 2/3 innings. The Brewers should get right at the plate tonight and win comfortably behind Gasser. The Marlins are 1-11 in Rogers' last 12 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. Miami is 1-16 against left-handed starters this season. Give us the Brewers.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
Bet: Denver Nuggets -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
After a slow start at home, the Denver Nuggets have regained their championship form on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Trailing 2-0 in the series, Denver stole back home-court advantage with decisive wins in Games 3 and 4 in Minneapolis. The Nuggets looked disjointed early, but a few days off allowed them to regroup. Now they return to the friendly confines of Ball Arena, poised to seize control of the series in Game 5 on Tuesday night. If the Nuggets can grab control of this game early, the T-Wolves may enter panic mode, as they feel the series slipping away from them. The mental toll on Minnesota may be too much, as they feel they had a chance to put Denver away and missed their opportunity. Both teams travel to the thin air of Denver with only one day's rest, the Nuggets are used to this, but fatigue could be a factor for Minnesota. Denver’s offense has awoken, shooting a blistering 55.3% in the last 2 games by pushing the pace and attacking early. Jamal Murray is moving better on his sore calf and rediscovering his playoff scoring touch, highlighted by his ridiculous 55-foot buzzer-beater in Game 4. The young Timberwolves, on the other hand, are struggling to handle prosperity. Towns has disappeared the last 2 games, scoring just 27 points combined on poor shooting. Minnesota’s vaunted defense has also been unable to contain Denver’s balance, with Aaron Gordon emerging as an x-factor with his shot-making, playmaking and defense on the stars. The defending champion Nuggets have wrestled back control. With championship pedigree, a revived offense and home-court advantage regained, we are backing Denver to take a 3-2 series lead with a comfortable cover on Tuesday night.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles
Bet: Baltimore Orioles -125/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Orioles have won five of their last six games and three of their last four home games. They are playing well offensively and scored 18 runs in their last three games. They will play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against left-handers and Pfaadt has struggled on the mound in recent starts, giving up nine runs in his last three starts. He gave up nine runs in his last three road starts and with Arizona having the 10th-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Orioles in this game. The Diamondbacks have won four straight games. They are playing well offensively and scored at least five runs in three of those games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because Irvin has been dominant on the mound in recent starts and didn’t give up a run in his last three starts. He gave up two runs in his last two home starts and with Baltimore having one of the best bullpens in the league, they will keep Arizona’s offense in check. Go with Baltimore to cover the money line.
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Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
A 22-point loss wasn’t something the Mavs planned ahead of the series opener on Tuesday, but here we are. The four day layoff after the series vs the Clippers didn’t help, in fact it did just the opposite. Dallas looked rusty, especially Luka Doncic who went just 6-for-19 from the field and 1-for-8 from distance, breaking a streak of 24 consecutive postseason games with at least 20 points. Adjustments will have to be made ahead of Game 2, Dallas is yet to win a game in OKC in 3 tries this season. We must admit, we haven’t seen anything from them in Tuesday’s game that would warrant considering backing them here. Whenever your best player is able to maintain his consistency, your odds of winning will be high. The MVP award finalist SGA dropped 29 points in Tuesday’s win, Oklahoma City is 55-20 SU in games in which he scores 29 or more points this season. It wasn’t just him though, Lu Dort did his part defensively on Doncic and the rookie Chet Holmgren added 19 on really solid efficiency. OKC is yet to lose a game this postseason, they are on a collision course to meet Minnesota in the Conference finals. We really like their chances for Game 2 as well, they’ve gone 9-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings with Dallas and have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against them. The -21 recorded in Tuesday’s game is likely going to be Doncic’s worst +/- performance of this series. But still, Oklahoma City just looks like a way more balanced team than the Mavericks do. Oklahoma City having the massive upper hand when it comes to three-point shooting itself, as well as one of the best homefield advantages in the NBA, and Oklahoma City has to feel great about their chances at victory in this one. The Thunder have covered the spread twice in the last month against Dallas, in four-straight overall, and in eight of their last nine, as they continue those winning trends coming in this one. Going back home will be Dallas’s best chance of getting a win in this series. Go with OKC in Game 2.
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New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Bet: Philadelphia 76ers -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Despite the Game 3 loss, the Knicks played really decent basketball for long stretches, winning 3 of the 4 quarters played in that game. In the critical 3rd quarter they got outscored 43-27 and ultimately that’s what decided the game. Jalen Brunson had his best game of the series with an efficient 39 points and 13 rebounds, he got solid help from other starters, but the Knicks’ biggest issues was defending Joel Embiid. Mitchell Robinson getting injured didn’t do them any favors, he’s questionable to play with an ankle injury. Not having him around to battle Embiid down low would be a major loss. Game 3 was the game of the season for Philly, they simply had to win that game in order to stay alive in this series. They shot the lights out from the field connecting on almost 55% of their attempts, attacking the basket relentlessly and getting to the foul line 33 times. We are expecting a similar approach in Game 4, especially from Embiid who logged a team high 41 minutes and ended with a cool 50 points in the win. One guy the Sixers would be wise to get going is Tobias Harris. For a player making nearly $40m per year, it is inexcusable to not yet have a game with more than 10 points scored in this series. Philly is 10-2 SU over their last 12 games and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 overall. We have had this series going the distance since day one and we are sticking with that. Philadelphia showed they are more than capable of beating this team. Until we see the Knicks show us a way to counter Embiid, we are going to continue backing the Sixers.
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New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Bet: Philadelphia 76ers -5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
It is truly now or never for the Sixers in game three at home vs. the Knicks. This should be an angry bunch after coughing up a five-point lead in the final 30 seconds of the game on Monday night. The Sixers can blame the refs but they also know that they were dominated on the glass and physically dominated down the stretch. The Sixers' defensive strategy against Brunson has worked brilliantly and the Sixers have held the Knicks offense in check overall. Back at home, we expect the Sixers to get better performances out of the likes of Oubre and Harris to ease the burden of Maxey and Embiid to lead the Sixers to win. Batum should also have a stronger game after being limited offensively in the first two games. The Knicks have been a bit lucky in the first two games, losing in each game before rallying to victory. We like the Sixers to win this game big and make this a series on Thursday night.
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks
Bet: New York Knicks -3/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it weren’t for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldn’t be here right now. Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks also have the perfect team to attack Embiid who plays drop cover defensively in the pick-n-rolls as they can space the floor with effective shooters. The home crowd will be a big factor today as the Knicks are 27-14 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Home teams in G1 are on a 55-25 SU run in the first round of the playoffs. Much has been said about the Knicks missing Julius Randall, but we don’t feel it’s a huge factor as they have two big bodies in Hartenstein and Robinson to wear down Embiid. Another big key for New York is that they have OG Anunoby back on the court. The Knicks are 20-3 SU with Anunoby in the lineup this season. NY is 7th in offensive efficiency compared to the 76ers who sit 13th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Knicks hold an advantage there too ranking 9th versus 11th.
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Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Bet: Sacramento Kings -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
We do not care that the Kings lost five times this season to the Pelicans, throw that stat out the window, because the Zion Williamson injury changes everything. Stylistically, losing Zion takes out one of your strongest physical presences on the defensive end, which is very troubling considering Domantas Sabonis is on the other team. Sabonis plays bully-ball in the post, and is deceptively quick with great decision making skills. The Pelicans cannot expect to throw Valanciunas on him all game, and expect to slow him down. Mentally, this injury is going to deflate the Pelicans. Ingram and McCollum played awful last round, and now must carry their team against a Sacramento group that just sent home Steph Curry. The Pelicans were 7-5 in games without Zion this season, but are now running into a team with two All-Stars, and Keegan Murray went off for eight threes last game. Momentum is huge in playoff games, the Kings are riding high and the Pelicans are in scramble mode without their big man. Vegas knows the impact of this Zion injury, the Kings lost to the Pelicans five times this season, and are on the road here, but are now favored to win. Kings will advance to eighth seed, and Pelicans will get eliminated from playoffs.
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Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls
Bet: Chicago Bulls -3/-110 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Winner
The Hawks flat out embarrassed themselves in the grand finale of the regular season, losing 157-115 to the Indiana Pacers. Although the game carried very little weight for them, Atlanta’s effort on defense was nowhere to be seen, as a basketball fan it was really hard to watch that game. The return of Trae Young hasn’t turned things around, although they have been able to stay in games lately, apart from that game vs the Pacers. During the regular season they did win once in Chicago, at the start of April in a 113-101 win, but we are more of an opinion that that win was a product of the Bulls collapsing on offense and making just 39% of their field goal attempts and only 7 of 28 threes. Chicago also closed out the regular season with a loss at Madison Square Garden, but unlike Atlanta they didn’t come to their opponent’s arena waving the white flag. DeMar DeRozan and co. battled all the way to the end, but fell in overtime 120-119. Prior to that they had a mini 2-game win streak going on, plus they’ve successfully covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 games overall. When the Bulls are the favorites they usually win, in their last 20 such games they’re 13-7 SU. DeRozan will be the best player out there on the court on Wednesday, he is among the frontrunners for the clutch player of the year award. These play-in games usually go down to the very last possession, having great of execution down the stretch when it matters the most could be the difference here. We have to go with the Bulls here. Despite them not reaching expectations this year, there’s still something left of the season that they can salvage by making the playoffs. Back them to cover at home and eliminate the defensively limited Hawks.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Kansas City Royals -1/-135 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The White Sox weren't competitive in their three-game set against the Reds, losing by a combined score of 27-5. The latest loss dropped Chicago to 2-13, its worst start in franchise history. It's tough to envision it will respond on Monday against the red-hot Royals. KC cooled off a bit in Queens, dropping two of three games and scoring one run apiece in those two defeats, but it scored 11 runs in its Saturday victory and is still 8-2 in its last ten overall. Will the wheels come off in Chicago against the Southsiders? We don't believe so, Lugo held Chicago to one run in nearly seven frames less than two weeks ago. He's been a reliable bet since moving to the starting rotation with San Diego last season (3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 26 starts) and should continue to roll against Chicago's depleted lineup tomorrow. He's been strong in his first 3 starts, giving up just 3 ER over 18 2/3 innings. He'll be up against a bad Chicago offense that is scoring just 2.0 runs/game and hitting .170 as a team in 8 home games this season. White Sox are going to be sending out Nick Nastrini for his MLB debut. Nastrini has a 7.71 ERA over 7 innings in Triple-A so far this season. Kansas City swept Chicago in a four-game set at Kauffman Stadium earlier this month. The Royals outscored the White Sox 20-5 in the series. At roughly +100 odds, we love the value of the Royals run line as a bonus play but the guaranteed play is on the Kansas City Royals -1/-135.
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Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros
Bet: Houston Astros -1/-104 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
In today’s matchup, the Houston Astros are seeking redemption against the Texas Rangers following a 12-8 loss in yesterday’s game. Houston is currently on a four-game losing streak, and if they want to stop their losing streak, they’re going to need to start seeing significant improvement from their pitching staff. Houston has a team ERA of 5.56, ranking 29th in the league, surrendering 86 runs in just 15 games. That averages nearly 6 runs per game. This puts immense pressure on their offense, which has scored only 63 runs so far this season, which averages roughly 4 runs per game. Despite Houston batting .268 so far this season, which ranks 5th in the league, they need their pitching staff to step up. Ronel Blanco takes the mound today, who is 2-0 this season and has an 0.00 ERA over 15 innings pitched. In his last outing against the Rangers, Blanco allowed just 1 hit in 6 innings. On the Rangers’ side, Andrew Heaney struggled in his previous matchup against the Astros, giving up 6 earned runs in just 3.2 innings pitched. We saw these teams split four games in Arlington last weekend and both of these pitchers faced the opposing lineup during that set. Heaney was roughed up en route to a second straight loss to open the season. Meanwhile, Blanco followed up his no-hitter in his first start by allowing just a single hit in six frames of his outing Sunday. Texas has lost four of five games and they were just handcuffed by an Oakland team that is expected to be the league’s worst team by a wide margin. Houston is desperate to halt their losing streak, and today they’ll rely on Blanco to slow down the Rangers’ offense just enough to secure a much-needed win at home. Look for the Astros to take this one behind another solid outing from their starter.
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Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets
Bet: Kansas City Royals +115/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Kansas City Royals and the New York Mets meet on Friday night for the start of a three-game interleague series at Citi Field. Based on the respective seasons so far, it’s hard to justify and selection besides taking the Royals on the money line at +115. The Royals come into this series red hot, having won 7 straight games including a sweep of the Houston Astros. Their pitching has been stellar, allowing three or fewer runs in each of those six wins. Michael Wacha gets the start for KC, and he has good career numbers against the Mets with a 5-3 record and 3.28 ERA. The Royals have been on a roll offensively and scored 28 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve hit the ball well against right-handers this season and Severino struggled in his first home start, giving up six runs in the loss to Milwaukee. Even though he is 3-1 against the Royals, he didn’t pitch well in recent starts against them, giving up 13 runs in his last three starts against Kansas City, so expect him to have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Royals dominated the Mets during a three-game set played at Kauffman Stadium last season, outscoring them 20-8 and sweeping the series. The Royals, who ranked in the bottom half of the league in several key offensive categories last year, batted a healthy .327 with a .462 slugging percentage against New York pitching. The Mets had a dreadful start of the season, losing their first five games and generating a 4-7 record so far. The Mets did not have much of a home field advantage last year, losing at a 46.9% clip at Citi Field, and they have lost five games in six chances there so far this season. They have generated a lowly .269 slugging percentage in New York so far, so they may not have the firepower to mount a comeback if they find themselves down early. Wacha has produced a 3.28 ERA and struck out an average of over nine batters per nine innings against the Mets in his career. With Kansas City’s bullpen playing well at the moment, they won’t have a hard time keeping New York’s offense in check. Go with Kansas City to cover the money line.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Cincinnati Reds -1.5/-106 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
Cincinnati is not off to the best start but it's playing one of the weakest teams in baseball, as the White Sox have been decimated by injuries. Chicago is without Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Max Stassi, who all contribute considerably at the plate. The loss of several players for Chicago has resulted in the White Sox being 25th in slugging percentage, 26th in team batting average and 29th in runs scored, averaging 2.42 runs per game. Chicago has lost 12 of its last 14. Cincinnati starting pitcher Andrew Abboitt has had two solid outings allowing 10 hits and five runs in 10 ⅓ innings. In contrast, Chicago starting pitcher Chris Flexen has allowed seven earned runs in 10 ⅔ innings resulting in losses to Atlanta and Kansas City. Flexen has a 5.91 ERA. Chris Flexen has demonstrated through his first two starts that he gives up a ton of runs, and he has also struggled against the Reds as he is coming into this matchup with a 1-4 record against them.
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
There is not much to evaluate from the pitching matchup in this one. San Francisco will be sending out Winn, who is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA, while Tampa Bay has not named a starter, but their entire pitching staff has combined to have a 4.99 ERA. With that said, Tampa has won more games recently, and has a more reliable offense, which will allow them to grab a win in the first game of the series. San Francisco has not been playing well offensively, they are only 18th in run production, and just 25th in home runs with just 10 on the year. Conforto has been solid at the plate, but has not gotten much help from his teammates. The Rays on the other hand have multiple hitters capable of a big game. Isaac Parades has four home runs, and Arozarena and Diaz are strong at the plate. Tampa has been beating up on teams from the West Coast recently and will grab another win here. Tampa Bay are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the National League West Division division. San Francisco are 4-19 SU in their last 23 games on the road.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -125/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Postponed
The Milwaukee Brewers turn to Opening Day starter RHP Freddy Peralta as they try to win the four-game series. The Brew Crew dropped the opener 10-8 on Monday, but they have rallied for a pair of wins, 9-5 on Tuesday, and 7-2 on Wednesday. The Over has cashed in four straight games, and six of the past seven outings, for the Brewers, too, for those interested in a Same-Game Parlay (SGP). Milwaukee has had its way with Cincinnati in recent times, winning eight of the past 10 meetings, including four shutout victories. Two of those games were started by Peralta, as he went six innings in a 3-0 win on July 15, 2023, and he went six innings in a 3-0 victory on July 26, 2023. The Reds have just had no answer for him lately. The Reds have dropped the past two games, and four of the past six outings, and the pitching staff has allowed five or more runs in three straight games, and seven of the past 11 outings. RHP Nick Martinez takes the ball for the home side. He has kept the ball in the yard, allowing just a single home run, but he has allowed eight runs, 14 hits and two walks in 10 IP across his two starts. One of those outings came in a no-decision against the lowly Washington Nationals on March 31. Back Peralta and the visitors on the moneyline.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1/-125 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
After a weather-related break yesterday, both the Mets and the Braves are geared up for the final game of their series, with the Mets aiming to maintain their hot hitting streak against the Braves. The Mets have performed well on the road this season, they have a .269 team batting average and scored 25 runs in just 5 games. Meanwhile, the Braves have demonstrated their scoring ability whether it’s at home or away, hitting an impressive .313 and notching 33 runs in 5 home games. Pitching could be the differentiating factor. The Braves carry a team ERA of 4.30 with a WHIP of 1.33, slightly trailing the Mets, who have a team ERA of 3.42 and a WHIP of 1.38. Taking the mound for the Mets is Jose Quintana, who holds a 0-1 record this season across 2 starts, where he gave up only 3 runs in 10.1 innings pitched. On the other hand, the Braves will rely on rookie Allan Winans, stepping in for Spencer Strider, who landed on the 15-day injured list over the weekend. While the Mets hold a pitching advantage in today’s matchup, the question looms: do they have enough offensive firepower to match the Braves, a team known for their consistent scoring ability? Despite the Mets’ recent offensive surge, the Braves’ track record suggests they can generate runs against any opponent.
Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers
Bet: Texas Rangers -1/-130 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
Yesterday, the Rangers had a nice bounce back win against the A’s, securing a 6-2 victory. Key contributors to the Rangers’ success included Jonah Heim and Adolis Garcia, both of whom tallied 2 RBIs and accounted for 5 out of the team’s 12 hits. Looking to capitalize on their momentum, the Rangers aim to clinch a series win against the A’s as they entrust Jon Gray with pitching duties today. Despite giving up 5 runs in just 7.1 innings this season, Gray faces an A’s lineup struggling with a .202 batting average for the season. On the opposing mound, the A’s will deploy lefty JP Sears, who has encountered difficulties this season, surrendering 9 runs in 9.1 innings pitched. The Rangers have the league’s second-highest batting average and have been particularly potent against left-handed pitchers, hitting .301 this year. Jared Walsh is hitting .667 against lefties this year, with an OPS of 1.67, Marcus Semien is hitting .556 with an OPS of 1.34, and Adolis Garcia is hitting .333 with an OPS of .899. This presents a daunting challenge for Sears as he looks to rebound from his two previous starts, and facing a lineup like the Rangers, this spells trouble for the lefty.
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Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees
Bet: New York Yankees -1.5/-105 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
We can only look at the Yankees in this game. Marcus Stroman has done a great job in his previous two starts, and the Yankees’ lineup is full of dangerous bats. Anthony Volpe is slashing a ridiculous .417/.488/.667, and Juan Soto is hitting .357/.462/.548, so Ryan Weathers will have a long day in the office. The Yankees have won four in a row and they have the best record in the Majors. On the other side of the coin, the Marlins have lost two in a row and have the worst record in the Majors. New York has been solid at the plate and the dish while Miami ranks second to last in baseball in team ERA and 23rd in runs scored. Stroman has pitched well in his first two starts not giving up any earned runs and will pitch well again facing a Miami lineup that has totaled two runs in this series. Weathers has not pitched that bad giving up three runs in each of those two outings but the bullpen gave up 11 runs in those games. The Marlins’ pitching staff has struggled thus far. Their bullpen holds a pedestrian 5.69 ERA, whereas the Yankees ‘pen boasts a 2.81 ERA. Over the last seven days, Miami’s relievers have registered a 5.14 ERA, 4.14 FIP, and .328 opposing BABIP across 21 innings of work. Unlike Game 2 the Yankees will steamroll the Marlins in this one and also win by at least two runs, so take the run line to get better odds.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1/-140 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Dodgers have dominated the Twins in prior seasons, coming out on top in seven of their last eight matchups. Los Angeles swept the Twins during their last visit to Target Field. Los Angeles was effective playing away from their home stadium last year, winning at a 58% clip. The Dodgers' offense has excelled coming out of the gate this season, as they currently rank near the top of the MLB in several key offensive categories. The Twins rank near the bottom of the league in multiple offensive categories, including runs scored per game, so they may lack the firepower to mount a comeback if they find themselves down early. The Dodgers have won six of their previous eight games overall. The Twins have lost three straight games overall, all of which were played at home. Minnesota is at home here but Paddack has been brutal in his career against the Dodgers, he has lost his prior three starts against Los Angeles and has an ERA north of seven in seven starts against them. The Twins are 27th in the majors with 10 whiffs per game: couple that with being at a disadvantage in their lineup and the mound to give the Dodgers the upper hand in this contest.
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Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees
Bet: New York Yankees -1/-135 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Push
The Yankees are tied with a couple of other teams for the most wins in baseball while the Marlins only have one win. New York shut out Miami in this interleague series opener and they rank in the top nine in the Majors in both team ERA and runs scored while the Marlins do not rank in the top 22 in either category. Rodon has pitched pretty well giving up three runs in 9 2/3 innings and he will pitch well in this game facing a Miami lineup that only had two hits in Game 1. On the other side of the coin the Yankees will get to Puk, who has given up eight runs in only six innings of work in two starts. It’s hard to trust Puk, who served as Miami’s closer for most of the 2023 season. He’s been pretty bad over his first two showings in 2024. Furthermore, the Marlins bullpen holds an ugly 6.11 ERA, whereas the Yankees’ relievers have recorded a 2.88 ERA so far this season.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers ML/-135 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
After suffering their first series loss of the season against the Chicago Cubs, the Dodgers are eager to bounce back as they face the Minnesota Twins in a best-of-three showdown. With their sights set on regaining momentum, the Dodgers look to capitalize on the Twins’ struggles at the plate this season. The Dodgers boast the third-best hitting record in the league, with an impressive .279 batting average, coupled with 15 home runs and 67 RBIs. In contrast, the Twins have struggled offensively, batting just .191 with a mere 3 home runs and 19 RBIs, posing a significant challenge as they host a superior Dodgers lineup at home. While the Twins may hold a slight advantage on the mound, with a team ERA of 3.54 compared to the Dodgers’ 4.21, their pitching staff faces a daunting task against the potent Dodgers lineup. Led by sluggers like Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez, who have already showcased their power with a combined 9 home runs, the Dodgers present a formidable challenge for any opposing pitching staff. In today’s matchup, the Dodgers will send James Paxton to the mound, coming off a stellar performance where he held the opposing team scoreless for 5 innings. On the other hand, the Twins will rely on Bailey Ober, who struggled in his last outing, giving up 8 runs and 9 hits in just 1.1 innings against the Kansas City Royals. This Dodgers lineup is way more powerful than the Royals, they lead the majors in home runs (15) and are third in OPS (.816). They are hitting a strong .298/.373/.477 against the right-handed pitchers, and it’s hard to trust Bailey Ober in this matchup. The Dodgers are 12-1 in their last 13 meetings with the Twins.
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Purdue Boilermakers vs Connecticut Huskies
Bet: Connecticut Huskies -6.5/-112 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The last meeting between the two came in the Sweet Sixteen of the 2009 NCAA Tournament and UConn won by 12, before going on to lose in the Final Four. These are the two best teams, and they are both looking to be playing their best basketball right now. The closest game anyone had between them this tournament was Purdue’s six-point victory over Tennessee in the Elite 8. Every other win between them has been by double digits. Back-to-back player of the year Edey has been a force in the postseason but is likely feeling some of the effects of going up against big boy DJ Burns Jr. on Saturday. Now, he has to face Clingan, who can truly match up with him from a size standpoint. The thing with the UConn center is that he does not have to also be the offense's focal point. Dan Hurley will surely have a strong gameplan in play for his big man, against the nation’s best big man. The UConn Huskies are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season. They have won all 11 games by 13 points or more. Alabama shot 47.8% from 3 in the Final 4 and still lost by 14. UConn has no weaknesses. The Huskies rank 1st in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense. They have held seven of their last nine opponents to 60 points or fewer, including five of their last six to 58 points or fewer. Zach Edey is the best player in college basketball, but UConn is the best team in college basketball. The Huskies will have the edge at the four other positions on the court outside of Edey. Plus, Edey hasn't had to face a defender as good as Donovan Klingan all season. He is the best big man defender in the country. Klingan will limit what Edey can do on the offensive end. They won't have to double-team him, and that will make life much more difficult on Purdue's guards who won't be getting uncontested looks like they are accustomed to. This is a terrible matchup for the Boilermakers.
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Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors
Bet: Toronto Raptors -4/-115 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Raptors got a boost on Friday with the returns of both Quickley and Barrett. The duo has prospered since arriving in Toronto and gives the Raptors legitimate young building blocks along with Scottie Barnes for next season. The Raptors have fallen hard in recent weeks with Barnes' injury and Barrett's absence due to a family tragedy. With Barrett back, the Raptors offense has another legitimate playmaker and scorer on the floor. He opens up opportunities for shooters like Trent, as evidenced by Trent's 31 points on Friday night. The Wizards could again be without their leading scorer in Kuzma and that will make things challenging for the Wizards to find scoring. The Raptors come in having taken two of the three games played between the two teams this season. At even strength, the Raptors have a stronger roster and we will take our chances with the Raptors picking up a second straight win on Sunday on their home court. Washington has lost 12 of 14 in Toronto.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1/-124 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Rays almost pulled off a miraculous comeback on Friday, rallying from four runs down to take a 7-6 lead, only to give up four runs in the bottom of the inning. Tampa isn't off to the start it envisioned, but it's a worthwhile bet to respond on Saturday at under -150 odds. TB was 27-19 SU in non-league games and 36-20 SU as road favorites last season. After blowing a winnable game in the ninth inning on Friday, the character of this team will take control, jumping on the Rockies early and never relenting. The Rays have underperformed this season but they won't lose to one of the league's worst teams on consecutive days. We can't forget this was one of the better home run-hitting teams for the better part of last season. Coors Field offers a ripe environment for them to get their swing back. With Feltner's lack of ball command, Tampa Bay should be able to work through the batting order here, the beneficiary of earning walks. Alexander is coming off one of the strongest seasons of his career and he will look to keep that momentum going against a bottom-10 offense in the Rockies.
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Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/+117 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Astros did not start the season well against the Yankees, but their series against Toronto showed their potential with a couple of shutouts (including a no-hitter) and lots of home run power. The only blemish was a home run in the 9th that cost them the second game of the series. They are sub .500 right now, but they are a great example of why it is a long season. Not much of a World Series hangover for the Texas Rangers as they have won each of their first two series. They are 8th in runs scored and 8th in team ERA. If that holds they are definitely going to be in contention this season again. They are not even fully healthy yet this season, on the mound or in the lineup. Hunter Brown is an arm the Astros have been waiting for. He was a top prospect but had not delivered much so far in his career. He has made one start this season. It was short, four innings, but he gave up no runs against the Yankees. That is a good indicator. Texas lefty Cody Bradford is a little older than Brown, but only made his MLB debut last season. Until they get their veteran arms healthy they are hoping he can bridge the gap. So far so good with a win over the Cubs in his only start of the season. Houston looked so good against Toronto that the markets have made them the favorite in this spot. We can see why, but that is too much of a premium to pay on the road with a pitcher with the track record of Brown. Bradford is not a big name but it is not like we have not seen what this Texas team can do. This rivalry didn’t disappoint last season as these were the two teams playing for the AL pennant and it took all seven games to determine a winner. Houston’s edge in the season series last year gave them the AL West title and the Rangers still have that in the back of their heads. Bradford was sound enough in his debut against the Cubs and he should help Texas draw first blood with a win here.
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/-118 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The New York Mets finally won a game in 2024, notching their first victory of the season 2-1 in the 2nd game of their Thursday double-header against the Detroit Tigers. It took until the 8th inning for New York to record its first hit, and both of its runs came in the bottom of the 9th. While the Mets’ bullpen had both Tuesday and Wednesday off, Thursday’s double-header included an extra-inning affair in the first matchup. As a result, the Mets used 8 relievers in just 1 day. They will mostly be available again on Friday against the Reds, but Cincinnati has the rest advantage for Game 1 of the series given the day off on Thursday. Cincinnati enters play with a 4-2 record, winning series over both the Nationals and Phillies to begin the season. The Mets’ offense has been underwhelming to begin the season, with slumps by Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. They will face Hunter Greene, who showcased shaky command in his season debut by issuing 4 walks. Greene is loaded with talent, however, and the Reds are hoping his expanded pitching arsenal will lead to a breakout season. With the advantage in bullpen rest for this game, just an average start from their hard-throwing right-hander should put them in a solid position to compete. Jose Quintana allowed a 53.3% hard-hit rate and 2 barreled balls in his season debut for New York and is now tasked with a tougher opponent in a less friendly ballpark. With how shaky the Mets have looked so far, this price seems cheap on the Reds at home.
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Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5/+114 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
As the Colorado Rockies (1-5) limp into Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs (3-2) have a prime opportunity to keep their momentum going. The Cubs have won 3 straight after dropping their opening 2 games, outscoring opponents 26-7 during this stretch. Their bats have awoken, led by Cody Bellinger’s 2 homers and 8 RBIs already this young season. Meanwhile, Colorado’s pitching has been a disaster — posting a 7.02 ERA (28th in MLB) and 1.83 WHIP (30th). Starting pitcher Cal Quantrill was rocked for 5 earned runs in his season debut. He has particularly struggled against the Cubs, allowing 6 runs in his last start against them in 2023. Chicago hitters are batting .326 in 43 career at-bats versus Quantrill. The trends also strongly favor backing the Cubs on the run line at home. They have won 15 of their last 16 games as home favorites against the Rockies. Colorado has dropped 11 straight Wednesday road games and trailed after 7 innings in its last 5 road tilts versus NL Central teams. With their offense clicking and Colorado’s pitching woes, the Cubs on the -1.5 run line looks like a wise investment. Expect Chicago’s hot streak to continue with a lopsided victory.
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NC State Wolfpack vs Duke Blue Devils
Bet: NC State Wolfpack +7/-114 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
It is the South regional championship, featuring Houston and Marquette . . . wait . . . that didn’t go according to plan. No, instead, the South regional final features an ACC showdown between the blazing hot NC State Wolfpack and the rival Duke Blue Devils. Let’s talk about how we got here. Duke, for their part, is just lucky to still be dancing. They only barely knocked off Houston despite the Cougars losing their best player early in the game to an ankle injury. If this were a college exam question, we are only granting partial credit for that. For the Pack, they just keep defying all of us and beating good teams. On Friday, it was a heavily favored Marquette team. At some point, we have to acknowledge that NC State is not just on a hot streak, but they have actually figured something out. These teams played once in the regular season (Duke won by 15), and then again in the ACC tournament (NC State won by 5). Let’s look at the most recent game. Yes, Duke was motivated to play, they thought they could improve their seeding by winning the conference tournament. DJ Burns Jr. was not yet a national darling—he went for a pedestrian 10 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists against Duke. Yet it was that game that set the Pack on their winning streak. We wouldn’t be surprised if NC State wins this game outright. We expect the Pack to go with what got them here: feed the big man, let him pass out of double teams to open shooters, and if you don’t want to double him, let him bully his way to the basket and put the entire Duke roster in foul trouble. For the Blue Devils, they have been shooting well from deep in the tournament, but they were only 5-of-20 in their last meeting with NC State. NC State is drawing parallels to the 1983 team that Jim Valvano coached to the title with their late season run. It’s hard to argue with a team that won five games in five days just to get in the field, before dispatching Texas Tech, Oakland and Marquette to get here. N.C. State is playing with a ton of confidence at the moment and doesn't look like a team that's about to buckle under the pressure as the last remaining 'Cinderella' team. Note that the Wolfpack are 48-28 ATS in their last 76 games as neutral court underdog including 7-1 ATS in that spot this season. Duke is just 21-23 ATS in its last 44 games following three straight victories including a 5-8 ATS record in that situation this season.
Tennessee vs Purdue
Bet: Purdue -3/-124 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Purdue Boilermakers continued their redemption tour on Friday with a 80-68 win over Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. Paced by Zach Edey’s 27 points, the Boilermakers scored 1.36 PPP on 64% from 2-point range and 45% from the perimeter. Braden Smith’s court vision was outstanding too, as he dished out 15 assists with just 2 turnovers. They will advance to the Elite 8 to play the Tennessee Volunteers, who defeated Creighton 82-75 on Friday night. Dalton Knecht poured in 24 points with 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals to lead Tennessee, while Zakai Zeigler and Josiah-James Jordan added 35 combined points in support. This will be the 2nd time Purdue and Tennessee meet this season, the 1st being in Maui back in November. It was a very ugly game in which neither offense scored efficiently. There were 78 combined free throw attempts and 26 turnovers, but Purdue managed to win by 4 despite making just 4 of 15 perimeter shots. The Boilermakers are going to need more production from beyond the arc in this matchup to win and advance, which we strongly believe they will generate. When Edey touches the ball in the post, Tennessee will often send a nearby defender or 2 to sag down and help. This should briefly expose perimeter shooters, of which Purdue has plenty. The Boilermakers are shooting over 43% from the perimeter in the NCAA Tournament, and their willingness to shoot from range has steadily increased throughout March. They have 3 key players that are in the top 50 nationally in 3P%, making it a risky proposition to continuously sag off the perimeter to help Edey’s defender in the post. When Smith and Edey operate in the pick-and-roll, Tennessee’s most likely counter will be to hedge the big man and force Smith sideline to sideline. This would allow Edey to roll freely to the basket, where the backside defender would have to make a decision to help on the rolling Edey or mark a perimeter shooter. In either case, Purdue should have open shots in these situations. Purdue holds its postseason opponents to 45.5% eFG%, including 48.3% from 2-point range and 26.9% from beyond the arc. We came away really impressed by how Purdue played in the second half of Friday's game. Gonzaga was as hot as any team in the tourney field, but it barely managed 30 points after halftime. The Boilermakers also held an efficient Utah State team under 38 percent from two-point range in the round of 32. This is Purdue's best shot at a Final Four. The Boilermakers have been able to find success when they feed the ball down low and with the Volunteers defense sitting bottom 100 in opponent free throw rate, look for Purdue to capitalize at the line as well. It won't drop the ball tomorrow — bet on it!
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Clemson vs. Alabama
Bet: Clemson +3.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Tigers come into this game having been an underdog in each of their previous three games and prevailing in each. A closer look at the first matchup between the two teams reveals some surprising similarities to the way the Tigers are playing now. Back in their earlier matchup with Alabama, the Tigers' defense was outstanding, holding the Crimson Tide under their scoring average and 40 percent shooting. The Tigers have held each of their three opponents in the tournament to under their scoring average and below their 3-point shooting average. The key to victory here will be to limit the Crimson Tide on the glass. The Tide are averaging over 44 rebounds per game in the tournament. In the first matchup, Clemson's front line held their own and matched the Tide on the glass with each team grabbing 41 rebounds. While Alabama is now 9-10 on the season against tournament teams, the Tigers are an impressive 9-4 against teams that have made the tournament this season. Clemson's backcourt is experienced and has played smart as evidenced by the team's drop in turnovers during this run. One takeaway that applies to this contest, is that Clemson has done well at throwing a blanket on these high-octane offenses. If you go back and look at their games against UNC (x2), Duke, Baylor, Arizona, and Alabama, Clemson is 4-2 SU, posting an average margin of victory of +2.3 points. To even post a winning record against those teams is noteworthy. We are buying in on the Tigers. They’ve proven that they can hang with top-tier talent, and we`ll take a shot with them against Alabama’s questionable defense.
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NC State vs Marquette
Bet: NC State +7.5/-115 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Winner
The Wolfpack have won seven straight games. They are playing very well offensively, scoring more than 80 points per game in their last three games while making 50 percent of their shots. They’ve also done well at the charity stripe, making over 77 percent of their free throws during that span. They do a good job of finding the open man and they’re rebounding has been very good, so expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances in this game. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won’t give the Golden Eagles a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Golden Eagles aren’t playing very well defensively and they gave up 73 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Wolfpack in this game. The Golden Eagles have won two straight games. They are also playing well offensively, scoring 75 points per game in their last three games. They haven’t been as good at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws during that span. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Wolfpack and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Wolfpack, who average more than seven steals per game. The Wolfpack aren’t great defensively, but they’ve played better during their winning streak and won’t have trouble keeping Marquette’s offense in check. The Wolfpack are in a nice 43-9 tournament system that is a perfect 7-0 in round 3 games for mid sized dogs with a total that is less than 155.
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Creighton vs. Tennessee
Bet: Creighton +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Rick Barnes has lost twice in the Sweet 16 with Tennessee, and he is running into trouble again here against a strong Creighton team. Dalton Knecht is a star, but Creighton has an answer in Baylor Schiereman. Schiereman has the size advantage, but is also quick enough to stay with Knecht on the perimeter. Creighton's top three scorers are difficult to matchup with, and the biggest mismatch will be inside as Aidoo is not used to being the smaller post player. Kalkbrenner has been excellent in the tournament, and will be impactful here as he will be able to score in the post on Aidoo, and also protect the rim. Aidoo is not an outside shooter, this gives Kalkbrenner the opportunity to stay around the bucket and challenge shots at the rim. Creighton has been one of the best teams in college hoops this season, and their offensive balance gives them the ability to pick and choose which matchup to exploit. Zakai Zeigler is too small to put on Trey Alexander, as the 5'9 guard can't matchup with the 6'4 Alexander. Zeigler will likely matchup with Ashworth, and Creighton will still have their top three scorers away from their best defender. The Bluejays are the bigger team, and Schiereman will go toe-to-toe with Tennessee's Knecht. Take Creighton to cover.
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Arizona Wildcats vs Clemson Tigers
Bet: Clemson Tigers +7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The second weekend of the NCAA Tournament tips off with a West Region semifinal matchup between the 2nd-seeded Arizona Wildcats and the 6th-seeded Clemson Tigers. Arizona sits as a 7-point favorite, boasting the second-highest spread among the Sweet 16 games. While the Wildcats have secured 2 convincing double-digit victories and covers so far this tournament, WE believe this spread is a bit high in their favor. This matchup against a surging Clemson team has the potential to be a close one, potentially decided by 1 or 2 possessions. Clemson’s front-court duo of PJ Hall (18.5 ppg) and Ian Schieffelin (9.8 ppg) is a force. They helped the Tigers rank second in the ACC in 2-point scoring rate (53.7%). Their ability to challenge Arizona’s front court and hold their own on the boards could make this a tight contest. Arizona, of course, counters with a talented front court of their own in Oumar Ballo (12.9 ppg) and Keshad Johnson (11.7 ppg). Despite 2 upset wins en route to the Sweet 16, Clemson continues to be undervalued by the betting market. Ultimately, Arizona’s consistency from beyond the arc might be the deciding factor. The Wildcats boast KenPom’s 19th best 3-point scoring rate (37.3%) compared to Clemson’s 103rd-ranked mark (35.3%). However, we don’t believe this advantage is enough for Arizona to cover the current 7.5-point spread. We were very impressed with their win over Baylor, who came out of a tough Big 12 conference. Meanwhile, Arizona has yet to be challenged in this tournament, and they haven’t faced much top-tier talent over the last several months. We mean, they played in a very weak PAC-12, so they didn’t run into many solid teams during conference play. We`ll fade the unproven Tommy Llyod and his undisciplined team that averages 12.0 turnovers per game (203rd).
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Alabama vs North Carolina
Bet: North Carolina -3.5/-118 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
The Alabama Crimson Tide and the North Carolina Tar Heels will face off on Thursday night in an NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 matchup. Both teams were able to make it out of the first weekend and avoid an early round upset. The Tar Heels are the #1 seed in the west region and the Crimson Tide are the #4 seed, so the Tar Heels are the slight favorite in this one. North Carolina came back after an early scare to Michigan State in its last game and looks primed to keep its tournament run going. We like UNC to cover the 4-point spread. The Tar Heels have a defense that can keep up with Alabama’s lethal offense. ‘Bama boasts one of the best offenses in the country that will put up points in this matchup, but UNCa’s defense has been efficient enough this year to slow it down and help them cover the spread. According to KenPom, North Carolina’s defense is ranked #6 in adjusted efficiency, #15 in effective field-goal percentage and #22 in 2-point percentage. Alabama should have lost their round of 32 game on Sunday, but played a team that did not try and run anything on offense and had only 5 total assists in the game. North Carolina is a much better team than Grand Canyon and we feel the Heels will win this game by double digits. North Carolina has a great pedigree in the NCAA Tournament and Alabama lost in this round last year despite being a much better team than what they have this season. Alabama lives and dies with the arc, but North Carolina has the defense and length to contest those shots. Lay the points with the No. 1 seed in Los Angeles on Thursday night.
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Texas A&M Aggies vs Houston Cougars
Bet: Texas A&M Aggies +10/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The 9th-seed Texas A&M Aggies rolled past the 8th-seed Nebraska Cornhuskers in a high-scoring first-round game by a 98-83 margin as 1.5-point favorites. Texas A&M ran out to a giant lead with 58 points in the first half, and it outscored Nebraska 40-39 in the second half to maintain its lead throughout. The Aggies have picked up the pace in the postseason, winning and covering three of four games, while going for 90 or more points in each of the previous three outings. Texas A&M has covered six of the past seven games dating back to March 2, also, which is quite a turnaround from a five-game losing streak from Feb. 13-28, which also saw the Aggies go 0-5 against the spread (ATS). The 1st-seed Houston Cougars barely broke a sweat against the Longwood Lancers of the Big South Conference in the opening round. Houston fired out to 43-16 lead in the first 20 minutes, and it kept its foot on the gas in the second half, rolling to an 86-46 victory to easily cover the 24-point number. It will obviously get a much bigger test from the SEC’s Aggies in an old Southwest Conference reunion. These two teams battled it out back in December and Texas A&M was able to keep that game close and cover the spread, without their second-leading scorer Tyrece Radford. Texas A&M has won six of their last seven games and their offense was rolling in their first round. Tyrece Radford will play in this game and he is playing with a great rhythm. The Aggies will keep this game close and will put a ton of pressure on this Houston team, who beat them just by 4 points on a neutral floor earlier in the season. Wade Taylor IV scored 34 points in the first meeting with Houston and with Radford in the lineup and playing well, the Aggies will be able to cover the spread.
VCU vs. South Florida
Bet: South Florida -2.5/-115 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
South Florida playing on their home court is a factor that cannot be ignored when betting on this game. The Bulls are 15-2 when playing on their home floor and it almost seems like they can garner energy from the building and immediately apply it to their play as if the fans are the sixth 'men' out on the court. The Bulls are coming into this game with a 21-8 record against the spread this season which has been one of the most favorable teams to tail during the year. South Florida has hit the money line in 23 of their last 26 games and has covered the spread in 19 of those games. The Bulls have one of the few defenses in the NIT that can force misses at the same level as VCU. USF's incredible three-point shooting will test the Rams all night long. Expect USF to win by at least three points to keep their season alive.
Clemson Tigers vs Baylor Bears
Bet: Baylor Bears -4/-118 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
Baylor and Clemson meet in Memphis on Sunday afternoon, with both teams riding high after lopsided first round victories. Baylor unsurprisingly took care of Colgate in a mismatch. Clemson, however, despite being the higher seed, was an underdog to New Mexico, yet they dispatched the Lobos by 21. How you interpret the New Mexico game is crucial to how you play this one. The Lobos had their worst game all season, was that because Clemson did something to make it happen, or was it just a really unfortunate time to collapse? The most glaring stat of the game was that New Mexico was 3-for-23 from beyond the arc, and they are normally strong from outside. For us, that was less about what Clemson did to them and more about New Mexico imploding at a bad time. A lot of those shots were open and uncontested, and they just didn’t go down. All that to say this: if Clemson wants to get by Baylor, they will need Baylor to shoot poorly from outside also, and that will not happen. Baylor has been getting steadily better throughout the second half of the season. They have 3 key players that were all new to one another—2 freshmen and a transfer—all of whom are NBA-level talents. That is a lot of talent on one floor. Baylor is also one of the best offenses in the country, and they are especially lethal from deep. We don’t see Clemson pulling off the same kind of defensive effort as they did against New Mexico. Baylor’s offense should be well ahead of the Tigers. Baylor is a much better team than New Mexico and they will be able to take advantage of some of Clemson's weaknesses. The Bears are sixth in the nation in three-point percentage and 95th in offensive rebounds per game. Baylor has great depth and the versatility of their wings will be a problem for Clemson. Joe Girard III did not shoot the ball well in the Tiger's win over New Mexico and Clemson's lack of depth will hurt them in this game. Take Baylor to have another great performance and move on to the Sweet 16.
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Michigan State Spartans vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Bet: North Carolina Tar Heels -3/-115 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The bookmakers in Vegas are giving a lot of love to this Michigan State team, putting the line at just 3.5 points, but we do not see it that way. Michigan State looked good against Mississippi State, but we cannot be a victim of the moment or have a recency bias. Over the past month, Michigan State has lost to several teams that did not make the tournament in Iowa, Ohio State and Indiana. Over that same period, UNC only lost one game total, to NC State in the ACC Final. North Carolina is the better team, and they will use their size advantage inside again. Bacot had a 20-point and 15 rebound First Round because there was no one on Wagner to stop him, well Michigan State's best players are all on the perimeter, which will allow Bacot to dominate again. Michigan State started Carson Cooper inside, he is about the same size as Bacot, but nowhere near as athletic or talented. The Spartans had fewer points in the paint than Mississippi State did in their opener, and will score less than the Tar Heels inside too. Tyson Walker is the star for Michigan State, but he will be matched up with a First Team All-American in RJ Davis, Walker will no longer have an advantage. Too much talent for the Tar Heels, and too small of a line as UNC heads to the Sweet 16. Take North Carolina to win and cover.
Oregon Ducks vs Creighton Bluejays
Bet: Creighton Bluejays -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Oregon Ducks and the Creighton Bluejays will meet in Pittsburgh on Saturday for the NCAA Tournament round of 32. Both teams took care of business in the first round and are one win away from making the Sweet 16 next weekend. Eleventh-seeded Oregon beat South Carolina to keep its win streak going and #3 seeded Creighton held off Akron who was looking for a historic upset. This matchup should be a good one, as the 5-point spread suggests, and Creighton will cover that spread because it has been one of the best teams in the country all season. Oregon has been one of the hottest teams in the country as of late, but we expect the run to end here. Creighton’s dynamic offense should be too much for the Oregon defense that is ranked #154 nationally in opposing points per game. The Bluejays boast 4 players who average more than 10 points per game and they are all upperclassmen who should be prepared for the big moment. Creighton is averaging over 80 points per game this season, which is ranked top 25 nationally. The Bluejays’ efficient offense should be enough to lead them to their second straight Sweet 16 appearance and to cover this 5-point spread.
Oakland vs NC State
Bet: NC State -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Push
The #11 North Carolina State Wolfpack continued their impressive postseason run with an 80-67 win over #6 Texas Tech in the Round of 64 on Thursday. It was their 6th consecutive win after they lost 7 of their last 9 regular season games, and the 4th time they scored at least 80 points in the postseason. The win advances them to the Round of 32 to face the Cinderella candidate of the first round – the #14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies. NC State is the hottest team in the country. We won't pick against the Pack on Saturday, even against an Oakland team coming off its biggest win in school history. The Golden Grizzlies will not benefit from playing a sub-par defense tomorrow, as they did in the first round versus Kentucky. The Wolfpack held Texas Tech under 25 percent from three-point range in their round of 64 game and will take away the three-ball tomorrow, making the Grizz too one-dimensional. We feel confident NC State can hold Oakland's bigs in check (16 points in the paint vs. UK) after giving up just 20 points in the paint vs. TTU. Offensively, North Carolina State will dominate inside. Burns will attack Oakland's conference POY Townsend, who will pick up fouls and surrender too many points against NC State's bruising big man. With a substantial scoring advantage at the rim, the three-point shot will open up for Horne and others, burying the Golden Grizzlies' season.
Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State
Bet: Ohio State -4/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
Ohio State has talent, they just figured out how to use it way too late in the season. The Buckeyes have won six of their last seven games, with their only loss in the stretch coming against Illinois, who is currently a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Bruce Thornton is an excellent point guard, who is athletic enough to chase Padulla around the court and make life difficult for the V-Tech point guard. Ohio State also has more bodies inside, Battle is a strong wing, and Key is a 6'8 powerhouse at forward and Okpara is a 6'11 athlete who can protect the rim. This frontcourt depth is important, as Virginia Tech has Lynn Kidd, but Ohio State has multiple post players to throw at him. Ohio State has been on a hot streak lately in the stronger Big Ten, and will get the advantage of playing this game on their home floor. They will cover this small spread and advance. Take Ohio State to cover.
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Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors
Bet: Golden State Warriors -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Warriors have been battling injuries and lineup changes all season, but seem to have finally gotten healthy and fallen into a groove here. Chris Paul is back, and he just had a game with 14 assists and 0 turnovers off the bench. Klay Thompson has also adjusted to coming off the bench, as his scoring levels are creeping back up, as he has scored 19 or more in each of his last three. The Warriors are fighting for playoff seeding in the tightly contested Western Conference, and need to take advantage of home games when their team is at full strength. Indiana is in a bt of ia slump lately, and it has started with their star player, Tyrese Haliburton. He is only shooting 18% from three over his last five games, and they cannot expect to go into Golden State and put up a strong showing if their top player isn't playing well. The Warriors have been playing small ball lately, but Myles Turner scores more from the perimeter than he does inside, so the matchup should not be troublesome for Draymond. The Warriors are at home and healthy, they will grab a win against a team with a struggling superstar.
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Texas A&M Aggies vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
Bet: Nebraska Cornhuskers ML/-107 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
Although the Aggies are like vacuums on the offensive glass, they're simply far too inefficient to advance in this one. Nebraska's defense is capable of consistently forcing missed shots until they grab a board. The Huskers shouldn't fear Texas A&M at the free throw line either. The battle on the other end features a mediocre three-point defense against a Nebraska squad that attempts 26.4 per game and hits 35.8% of them. The Huskers hit free throws and protect the ball well enough to optimize their possessions. Texas A&M let their last two opponents exceed 85 points. Roll with Nebraska to advance and win outright.
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New Mexico Lobos vs Clemson Tigers
Bet: New Mexico Lobos -2/-110 ( sportsbook: PointsBet ) Loser
Let’s get right to it: these 2 teams are seeded wrong. New Mexico is — plain and simple — the better of these 2 teams, and oddsmakers knew it when they made the 11th-seeded Lobos the favorite over the 6th-seeded Tigers. Clemson enters the tournament as one of the coldest teams in the country, losing 3 of its last 4, including a 19-point loss to a rather hapless Boston College team in the ACC Tournament. Meanwhile, the Lobos won the competitive Mountain West after listening to prognosticators all year telling them they would miss the tournament otherwise (which is crazy for a team that ranks 23rd per KenPom). Everyone is going to fuss when the #11 seed busts their bracket, but the Lobos should win this game, and we are happy to back them. New Mexico does a couple of things really well. First, it plays really fast, one of the top-10 fastest teams in the country. The Lobos play fast on offense and their defense applies a lot of pressure and speeds up the opponent. The other thing this team does well is force a ton of turnovers while valuing the basketball and avoiding turnovers, itself. Finally, the Lobos are the better rebounding team, that is a stat we really like in the tournament because rebounding travels, and because every possession matters. We love the Lobos in this spot, especially drawing a struggling Clemson team.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Michigan State Spartans
Bet: Michigan State Spartans -1/-112 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
Despite a pretty underwhelming season from Michigan State, KenPom is pretty high on the Spartans this year. They’re ranked 19th in adjusted efficiency margin (+20.02), while Mississippi State is all the way down at 31st (+17.91). For starters, we are very wary of where the scoring will come from for the Bulldogs. They’re running into one of the best defenses in the country, and they bring in a pedestrian offense, ranking 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency (113.6 points per 100 possessions). The Sparans have the edge in coaching, defense, and guard play, which are three of the most important factors when analyzing postseason hoops. Michigan State does even the little things better. They are better in the turnover department, they are the better 3-point and free throw shooting team. And despite their rebounding issues, they’ve been better as of late. Mississippi State’s fortunes are tied to two players. That leaves them with a slim margin for error while the Spartans can beat you with a number of different combinations. We are taking MSU in the opening game.
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Colorado vs. Boise State
Bet: Colorado -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Buffaloes have won eight of their last nine games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 79 points per game. They’ve done well at the charity stripe, making over 77 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut down their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Broncos a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Broncos aren’t playing well defensively and they gave up more than 76 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Buffaloes in this game. The Broncos have lost two of their last three games. They struggled offensively in recent games and they were held under 70 points in two of their last three games. They also struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Buffaloes and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances in this game. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Buffaloes. The Buffaloes are playing very well defensively, giving up less than 63 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to keep Boise State’s offense in check. Go with Colorado to cover the spread.
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Duquesne vs. VCU
Bet: Duquesne ML/+120 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
Inspiration can take you far but execution will tell the story. The Dukes have certainly been motivated throughout the tournament but they have executed at a very high level. After finishing the regular season just 13th in the A-10 in scoring, the Dukes have scored 80 or more points twice in this tournament. That can directly be attributed to the play of Grant and Clark. The pair are both averaging nearly 18 points per game in the tournament and either can take over a game at any time. The Rams have an excellent backcourt with Shulga, Bairstow, and Jackson but they will have difficulty keeping the Dukes' duo from breaking them down in one-on-one situations. The Rams haven't faced a backcourt this explosive yet in the tournament and Grant's 26 points against the Rams earlier this season is an indication of what he and Clark can do to them. Both teams can defend the ball, the Dukes finished fourth in the conference in scoring defense while the Rams have held the opposition to just over 60 points per game in the tournament. However, the Dukes execute better, ranked fourth this season in the fewest turnovers per game compared with VCU's 11th ranking, and they can score at an easier clip.
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Oregon vs. Colorado
Bet: Colorado -2/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
Oregon comes in with three straight ugly wins where they haven’t cracked 70 points in downing Utah, UCLA and Arizona. The Ducks are banged up and trying to get by with smoke and mirrors at this point. That might be too much to ask against a Colorado squad with eight straight wins on the books. The Buffaloes just held a very good Washington State team to 52 points, marking just the second time this season the Cougars failed to crack the 60-point mark. Williams coming back was a boost psychologically for Colorado, though he struggled in 19 minutes, his presence provided a boost. In two meetings this season it was all Colorado as they went 2-0 SU and ATS, owning a 10-point margin of victory in those efforts. Colorado charges into the Pac-12 finals as the hottest team in the conference, winners of eight straight games. Their offense has been the catalyst for much of that run, but they showed on Friday night that their defense is just as capable of getting the job done. Colorado has been rolling and that keeps going here as they win the conference tourney crown.
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UAB vs. South Florida
Bet: South Florida -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Bulls have won 15 of their last 17 games, with one of their two losses coming on the road against the Blazers. They have been on a roll offensively in recent games, scoring 77 points per game in their last three games. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 74 percent of their free throws. They do a great job of finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They turned the ball over less than 10 times per game in their last three games and won’t give the Blazers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. Even though the Blazers played well defensively in their last game against an overmatched Wichita State team, they haven’t played well in recent games and gave up more than 82 points per game in their previous three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bulls in this game. The Blazers don’t rebound the ball as well as the Bulls and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Bulls, who averaged nine steals per game in their last three games. The Bulls have played well defensively and gave up more than 70 points in a game only twice in their last six games, so expect them to keep UAB’s offense in check. After losing that game back in January at UAB, the Bulls went on a 15-1 SU run and their last five wins have come with an average margin of victory of 13.2 points per game. They were in complete control of their game on Thursday, compared to UAB who were down early in the second half. South Florida has gone 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Blazers and we like them to get revenge in this tournament rematch.
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Texas A&M Aggies vs Kentucky Wildcats
Bet: Kentucky Wildcats -5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Texas A&M Aggies defeated the Ole Miss Rebels in the second round of the SEC Tournament on Thursday and will advance to play the 2-seed Kentucky Wildcats in the quarterfinals on Friday night. The Aggies beat the Wildcats in overtime at home the first time they met this season, overcoming a 2nd half deficit and holding the ‘Cats to just 3 points in the bonus period. Texas A&M scored more than 1.2 points per possession and grabbed 25 offensive rebounds in the win, but may have proven to be a bit fortunate that Kentucky - nearly an 80% free throw shooting team in conference – made just 62% of its attempts from the charity stripe. Additionally, Kentucky was without Adou Thiero in that game, whose presence would have helped on the boards if nowhere else. Texas A&M’s season looked lost when it dropped 5 straight games in February, but the Aggies have turned it around with 4 consecutive wins. The winning streak is encouraging, but those victories were against Georgia, Mississippi State and Ole Miss (twice), none of which have the offensive upside of Big Blue. The Wildcats are 4th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency in the last month per BartTorvik, while Texas A&M is 347th in effective field goal percentage and 91st in efficiency in that span. Kentucky also leads the country in 3-point percentage, which is likely to be put on display against a Texas A&M defense that yields 1 of the 15 highest 3-point rates in the country. If the ‘Cats are firing on all cylinders, the Aggies can`t keep up with them in the SEC quarterfinals on Friday night. For what it’s worth, the Aggies shot better than 37% and made 12 shots from beyond the 3-point line in their win over Kentucky earlier this season, which was the 3rd-most they made during the regular season. We expect a rested and fresh Kentucky team to shoot the ball better in the rematch and keep the pace fast to build a lead that the plodding Aggies can't come back from.
Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Bet: Wisconsin -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Wisconsin is coming into this game with a lot of confidence after putting up 87 points on one of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten. The Badgers are one of the most balanced offensive teams in the nation as they have six players averaging 8.5 points or more. John Blackwell has been electric off the bench and he has scored in double figures in four of the last five games, including back-to-back 18-point performances. Wisconsin has great guard play but they will win this game with their forwards Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl. Northwestern is very undersized and the Badgers will be especially looking to get Tyler Wahl involved early and often after he shot just 1-5 from the field for four points against Maryland. In order for Wisconsin to make a run they will need Wahl to step up and take advantage of mismatches by attacking the rim. Northwestern is a solid offensive team but they played inconsistently in the second half of the season. The Wildcats have also struggled to play good defense without fouling as they led the Big Ten in opponents' free throw attempts and gave up 26 free throws to Wisconsin in their first matchup. Wisconsin already has a game under their belt and they will be feeling extremely confident heading into this matchup. These are two solid and experienced teams but Wisconsin has the edge in the paint with their rebounding, ability to finish around the rim, and Northwestern's big problem sending opponents to the free throw line. Wisconsin will come out early and set the tone and we expect a big game from Tyler Wahl, who has been Wisconsin's second-leading scorer all season. Take the Badgers to cover the spread and advance to the Semifinals.
Indiana vs. Nebraska
Bet: Nebraska -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Indiana did not let Penn State beat them three times in one season but Nebraska will be able to complete the trifecta. Indiana did not play well offensively in the Big Ten as they averaged just 70.5 PPG. The Hoosiers play inside out and love to feed the ball to their forwards and centers but they do not have great shooters to spread the floor. Indiana finished last in the Big Ten in three-point percentage and second to last in three-pointers made per game. Penn State has not been one of the better defensive teams in the Big Ten but they packed the paint and made it tough for the Indiana big men to get clean looks. Nebraska already used this gameplan twice against Indiana and that led to two wins by 15 points. Nebraska is an explosive offensive team that led the Big Ten in three-point percentage and three-pointers made per game. Nebraska made 26 three-pointers in their two matchups with Indiana and although Indiana is the bigger/taller team they do not have the speed and quickness to defend Nebraska. Keisei Tominaga torched Indiana in both matchups and the Hoosiers simply don't have anyone that can guard him. Nebraska will continue to use their speed and quickness to get great looks on the offensive end and make life difficult for Indiana defensively. Take the Cornhuskers to beat Indiana for the third time this season and advance to the Semifinals.
East Carolina (ECU) vs. South Florida
Bet: South Florida -6.5/-118 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Bulls have won 15 of their last 16 games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 76 points per game in their last three games. They’ve also taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 74 percent of their free throws during that span. They do a good job of finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They turned the ball over less than 10 times per game in their last three games and won’t give the Pirates a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Pirates have struggled defensively and they gave up more than 80 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bulls in this game. The Pirates have lost five of their last six games. They have struggled offensively and score less than 65 points per game on the road. They’ve also struggled at the charity stripe, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. Their ball movement isn’t very good on the road and their rebounding hasn’t been very good in recent games, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Bulls. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Bulls, who averaged nine steals per game in their last three games. The Bulls have played well defensively and they’re holding opponents under 70 points per game on the road, so expect them to keep East Carolina’s offense in check. Go with South Florida to cover the spread.
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Colorado State vs Nevada
Bet: Nevada -2.5/-118 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
These teams are very similar on paper and demonstrated that in their last regular season game which ended slightly favoring the Pack 77-74 while Colorado State was favored by 7 on their home court. In that game both Nevada’s Jarod Lucas and CSU’s Isaiah Stevens dropped in 23. However, Lucas hit a 3-point jay at the buzzer to seal the victory. The similarities continue on KenPom as the Wolf Pack is ranked 43rd offensively and 31st defensively while CSU is 40th on offense with a 34 on D. This brings their efficiency margin spread to less than one. This game will be tight but the edge will come from clutch possessions down the stretch. Jarod Lucas has been known as Mr. Clutch and is just one of many players from Nevada who can make it happen. Additionally, this will be the second game in two days for CSU who relies on strong, physical play. They will start to wear down and Nevada gets a chance to stretch a lead out. We didn’t love what we saw from Colorado State against San Jose State, and the Rams have had a tendency to underdeliver multiple times this season. Nevada’s played some of their best basketball down the stretch, and the Wolf Pack beat up on the Rams, sweeping the regular season meetings. Nevada is the better team here and at a reasonable number, the Wolf Pack should win and cover here.
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Saint Joseph's vs. Richmond
Bet: Richmond -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Spiders reached the A-10 Tournament final two seasons ago out of the six-seed but only reached the second round last season. This season, the Spiders earned a double-bye and now are just two wins from reaching the tournament final. The Spiders already own a win over the Hawks this season with a 73-66 win at home. Richmond, next-to-last in the conference in total rebounds, won the rebounding battle in the game and outshot the Hawks, 46%-to-41% overall and 33%-to-30% from 3-point range. The Spiders do an excellent job protecting the basketball, first in the conference in the fewest turnovers, and shoot the ball at a high level. Defensively, the Spiders are dominant on the perimeter and the paint. Richmond is a tournament-ready team and will take down the Hawks on Thursday to advance to the semifinals. Saint Joseph’s defense was good on Wednesday, but this game isn’t going to be the same. Richmond is averaging 72.7 points per game and they are going to have no issue running up the score here. Saint Joseph’s offense isn’t going to be great again here, and this is going to be a comfortable victory here by Richmond. Back Richmond to win this game and cover the spread. This is one of the stronger plays on the board.
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Kent State vs. Toledo
Bet: Toledo -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Rockets have won three straight games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 89 points per game in their last three games while making over 51 percent of their shots. They’ve also done well at the charity stripe, making 85 percent of their free throws during that span. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job of protecting the ball and won’t give the Golden Flashes a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Golden Flashes aren’t very good defensively and they gave up more than 78 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Rockets in this game. The Golden Flashes have lost two straight games. They have played well offensively on the road, scoring more than 71 points per game. They struggled at the charity stripe in recent games and barely made over 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Rockets and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Rockets. The Rockets have played well in recent games, holding their last three opponents to 71 points per game, so expect them to keep Kent State’s offense in check. Go with Toledo to cover the spread.
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NC State vs. Syracuse
Bet: Syracuse -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
NC State finished the regular season with four straight losses and they allowed 81, 79, 79, and 90 points in those four games. NC State got back in the win column with their triumph in the first round of the ACC Tournament as they took down Louisville. Beating a team like the Cardinals, a team in disarray at this point, doesn’t move the needle all that much. Throw in that the Wolfpack trailed by double digits in the first half and was tied with under five minutes to play makes things a little murkier. Syracuse had won four straight before getting dropped by Clemson in their finale but they have had a lot of success in the series of late. Seven straight wins for the Orange in the head-to-head series works in their favor. NC State also has their top scorer, DJ Horne (16.8 PPG), listed as questionable, and he didn’t suit in Tuesday’s win. Honestly, we are scratching our heads as to why this game is basically a pick ‘em, especially since NC State is just 1-4 SU in their last five games. The Orange have scored 82+ points in four of their last five games and they should feast against a NC State defense that is really struggling. Syracuse won the first two meetings with NC State by scores of 77-65 and 87-83. Look for Syracuse to take care of a sputtering NC State squad to advance to the quarterfinals.
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La Salle vs. George Washington
Bet: La Salle -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
In the Atlantic 10 Championship's first-round clash, La Salle stands out as the team to back, blending offense with a solid defense. The Explorers' scoring average of 73.0 points per game is propelled by Khalil Brantley's standout performance, averaging 15.1 points, underlined by his impressive ability to navigate defenses and contribute significantly to La Salle's offensive success. The team's shooting accuracy, reflected in a 43.1% field goal percentage and a 34.5% mark from beyond the arc, showcases the capacity to execute under pressure. Moreover, La Salle's free-throw proficiency, at 72.1%, indicates the capability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. The defensive side, with players like Daeshon Shepherd leading in rebounds and Rokas Jocius in blocks, suggests a solid foundation to challenge George Washington's attempts. There isn't any excuse for La Salle to not take care of business on Tuesday afternoon. The Revolutionaries are limping into the A-10 Tournament with 13 losses in 14 games including two to La Salle. The Explorers won the two games by an average of eight points. They also did so in two distinct ways. The Explorers drilled 53% of their 3-point shots in the first matchup while holding George Washington to just 16% from beyond the arc. In the second game, the Explorers were the superior team inside, outscoring the Revs 34-24 in the paint. A balanced attack and slight edge in conference play make La Salle the confident pick for this matchup.
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Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's
Bet: Gonzaga -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Gonzaga Bulldogs stand as the clear favorites heading into this high-stakes final against Saint Mary's, buoyed by their awe-inspiring offensive machine that averages 85.6 points per game, with a shooting efficiency that ranks second nationally at 51.9%. Their no-injury report signifies a fully operational lineup, ready to deploy their depth and versatility. Gonzaga's resilience and adaptability have been key, as demonstrated in their semifinal win, where they adjusted their tactics seamlessly against San Francisco. These teams battled for 40 minutes in their first matchup, a 64-62 Gaels win, while Gonzaga dominated the first half of the second meeting, leading to a 70-57 Bulldogs victory. The Zags showed their swag in their beatdown of the Gaels on March 2, ending their bid to finish the regular season with an undefeated conference record. Wyoming transfer center Graham Ike put up 24 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, taking it to Gaels big man Mitchell Saxen with a unique arsenal of shots. It was the junior's seventh straight 20-point game, a feat that hadn't been accomplished by a Zag since Adam Morrison in 2005-06. Point guard Ryan Nembhard also dazzled, attacking Gaels guards in pick-and-roll sets with quickness and relentlessness. Saint Mary's defenders couldn't move their feet quick enough to stay in front of him, leading to the first 20-point, 10-assist game of his career. With players like Graham Ike leading in points and rebounds and Ryan Nembhard’s exceptional playmaking, the Bulldogs have shown time and again that they can rise to the occasion. Their offensive firepower, coupled with a strategically solid defense that effectively complements their scoring prowess, makes them poised for victory in this final showdown. Gonzaga yanked Saint Mary's chain off its neck in Moraga in the regular season finale. The aftereffects of that performance will be felt Tuesday night, boosting the Zags' tournament resume and sending the Gaels' stock spiraling ahead of Selection Sunday.
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Towson vs. Charleston
Bet: Charleston -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
It’s all business this time of year for third-year head coach Pat Kelsey and his Cougars, as they look to repeat as CAA tournament champions. Charleston won its opening game on Saturday, crushing Monmouth in an 83-59 victory. They covered as 9.5-point favorites while the 142 combined points came in comfortable under the pregame total of 155.5 points. The Cougars held the edge in every major statistical category, including field goal percentage (50.8% to 36.8%), three-point shooting (31.8% to 21.1%), turnovers (7 to 10), and rebounding (36 to 32). Towson handled Charleston one of its three conference losses this year, beating them 82-78 in Charleston back on January 18th. The Cougars bounced back with a 72-56 road win on February 24th, setting up this Monday night rubber match in the nation’s capital. With the way Charleston is playing right now, there’s just no way that we can bet against them. Sunday’s win marked their 10th straight victory, where they’ve posted an average margin of victory of +13.8 over the 10 games. They’re blowing teams out right now. Plus, as we mentioned above, it’s all business this time of year for Coach Kelsey. They’ve been here before, and they’ll repeat as CAA champions, making the Tigers just a small step along the journey. The Charleston Cougars are the better team in this matchup and it will show from the opening minutes on Monday. Look for Charleston to continue to defend their top spot within this conference as they get another win and cover. Take the Cougars to do enough Monday night to get a victory against a mediocre Towson team leading to a conference championship birth.
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Drake vs. Indiana State
Bet: Indiana State -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
These two split their regular season series, with the home team winning SU and ATS each time. The Sycamores have gone 19-12-1 ATS this season, the best mark in the MVC per TeamRankings.com, and Drake had gone 17-16 ATS. Indiana State has been downright frightening in their first two games of the MVC Tournament and though they may already be locked into the NCAA Tournament, they look to be on a mission here. The last time these two faced off they were fairly even in most team statistics, but the Sycamore were able to gain an edge on the glass and in the paint overall. Indiana State should be able to gain that advantage again, having averaged 37 boards in their first two games of the tournament. They are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS over their last six games, and they are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last ten games against the Bulldogs. Indiana State is deeper and motivated to end Drake’s run atop the conference so look for the Sycamores to earn the conference crown.
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New Mexico vs. Utah State
Bet: Utah State -3/-121 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
Utah State has lost just once at home this season while the Lobos come in with a 5-5 road record this season. Each team is over the 20-win total and both look to be in a good position to earn an NCAA Tournament invite. The Lobos haven't been consistent, however, having not won consecutive games since reeling off five straight wins from January 13th to the 28th. The Aggies are in an excellent position to earn the #1 seed in the conference tournament with a win and to avenge an earlier loss to the Lobos at the Pit. The Aggies struggled in the first half of that game, outscored by 17 points while allowing the Lobos to score 62 points in the paint. At home, we expect the Aggies to tighten up and make adjustments on the interior and force the Aggies to beat them from the perimeter. We expect Utah State to do a better job limiting its turnovers at home and to defend the interior with help and pull out the win. The defenses are showing a bit of a difference throughout the last handful of games as New Mexico is giving up 75.0 points in their last three games while Utah State is allowing 68.2 points in their previous five games. Both programs are doing extremely well at defending the three but there is a gap as the Lobos are 61st in the country with an opposing 3-point percentage of 31.8 while the Aggies are in second place in the nation with a 28.3 3-point percentage against. Utah State is 6-0 SU and ATS at home against New Mexico since 2016. Utah State is 19-2 SU since 2022 when playing as a favorite of 5 points or less.
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North Alabama vs Austin Peay
Bet: Austin Peay -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Austin Peay Governors beat Eastern Kentucky, Bellarmine, and North Florida during their 3 games winning streak. The Austin Peay Governors are averaging 73.5 points on 44.4 percent shooting and allowing 71.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting. DeMarcus Sharp is averaging 17.5 points and 6.8 rebounds, while Dezi Jones is averaging 13.8 points and 3.1 assists. Ja’Monta Black is the third double-digit scorer and Sai Witt is grabbing 5.5 rebounds. The Austin Peay Governors are shooting 37.1 percent from beyond the arc and 68.5 percent from the free throw line. The Austin Peay Governors won both meetings this season against North Alabama and enters the tournament playing their most consistent ball. Austin Peay is on a roll offensively, and we question if North Alabama has the horses to keep up. The Austin Peay Governors have scored a combined 191 points in their last two games. The North Alabama Lions are a below average defensive team, and they don’t shoot the ball well enough to counter things. Austin Peay is the better team in this matchup as they have rolled all season, also going 8-1 SU in their last 9 games. Look for the Governors to continue their winning ways Thursday night punching their ticket into the conference final. Take Austin Peay to do enough to get the win and cover Thursday night against North Alabama.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators
Bet: Florida Gators -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Florida has looked really good in their games this season with their 20-9 record overall which has them ranked inside the top 25 teams in the country. They have looked good in the SEC this year with their 10-6 conference record which has them in the top half of the conference, but they have looked a lot better in those games on their home court with their 13-1 home record this season. The Gators are 6-1 SU at home against conference opponents this season, the lone loss was their one game against a ranked team and title contender, No. 6 Kentucky, 87-85. Meanwhile, Alabama did lose some momentum in their last game though as they took a home loss against Tennessee who now leads the SEC and Alabama also hasn't looked as good in their road games this year with their 5-4 road record. Florida is also coming off a loss in their last game but played in a much closer game on the road against South Carolina who is also right near the top of the SEC and they will be looking to bounce back on their home court as Alabama hasn't been at their best lately. The Gators should've won the first matchup in Tuscaloosa, but let Alabama tie things up late in the second half before falling. That won't happen again. The Gators' offense will feast even more than last time on a Crimson Tide defense that allows 88.6 points in the average road games. Florida's defense will get enough stops this time around, aided by more cushion. The Gators should be much more competitive in rebounding this time. Roll with Florida to win.
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Bradley vs. Drake
Bet: Drake -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
These two teams are going to be among the favorites to punch their ticket to March Madness by winning the MVC Tournament next week. Bradley is playing well down the stretch with their lone loss in the last five coming at the hands of this Drake squad. The Braves have a winning record on the road but they are still only 6-5 as the visitors this season. Meanwhile, Drake has put up a perfect 15-0 mark at home on the year, with 12 of those victories coming by double digits. The Bulldogs have the reigning Player of the Year in the conference in DeVries, who is averaging 21.7 points while shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from behind the three point line, and is helping Drake average the 33rd most points in the nation. Drake defeated Bradley earlier in the season and they will do that once again on Sunday. Bradley has struggled on the road at times as they are 1-2 against the spread as road underdogs. They are also 9-10 against the spread versus Missouri Valley opponents. Drake has the edge in this game with the home crowd and superior offense. Look for the Bulldogs to do enough Sunday to get the win and cover at home.
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Iowa vs. Northwestern
Bet: Northwestern -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Northwestern is 14-1 on their home court, last losing there 75-73 to Chicago State in a game the Wildcats were marked 25 point favorites. The shock reignited the squad who has yet to lose in BIG10 action at home including victories over both Michigan State and Illinois. Additionally, the Wildcats beat this Iowa team by 20 last season. According to the efficiency margin on KenPom this line is pretty accurate as there is just a 1.66 margin between the schools favoring Northwestern. However, this margin does not take into consideration the home court. Additionally, the Wildcats' mark of 74.5% at the charity stripe will allow them to maintain a close lead late in the game. Northwestern is the team here with magic behind them as they have won 5 of the last 6 including 3 in a row. Additionally, though Iowa touts the 12th ranked offense that scores 120 points per 100 possessions, Northwestern is right behind them scoring 117. However, Northwestern’s defense is 70th in contrast to the loose 156-ranked Iowa D. That Iowa D will be even looser on the road. Take the Wildcats here as the small home favorite.
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Villanova Wildcats vs Providence Friars
Bet: Providence Friars -2.5/-104 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
The Villanova Wildcats and the Providence Friars will face off on Saturday for a Big East Conference matchup. This game inside the Amica Mutual Pavilion has massive tournament implications since both teams are on the bubble and right near the cut line for an at large tournament bid. A win here for either team could punch their ticket to the Big Dance. Villanova is ranked #345 in adjusted tempo and #321 in offensive possession length, they have not been good offensively this season, Villanova is ranked #204 nationally in points per game while Providence is ranked #144. Villanova also has several injuries with Longinon and Bamba, who may miss the game. Even if they play, they won't be 100%. Providence has the revenge factor because they were plain awful in that first game, shooting just 29% from the field. The Friars are much tougher at home, where they hold opponents to just 39.9% from the field. Villanova shoots just 40.9% from the field on the road, while the Friars are shooting 45.2% from the field. The Providence Friars are 14-2 SU at home, while Villanova is 3-7 SU on the road. Providence gets rolling offensively at home, and it’s hard for opponents to keep up. This looks like a perfect spot to back the Providence Friars to bounce back from a 91-69 loss as a road underdog at Marquette. They've been good at snapping back from subpar outings, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss. The Villanova Wildcats meanwhile are in a potential flat spot following a 75-47 blowout win over Georgetown in their last game. The Wildcats are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Look for Oduro and Carter to take care of business and cement Providence's NCAA hopes.
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Marshall vs. Georgia State
Bet: Georgia State -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Push
This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season, and Marshall’s looking for the sweep after winning a 77-68 contest back on January 24th. However, this Thundering Herd squad has completely dropped off since that performance, and they enter this game on a six-game losing streak. Their average margin of victory over the six-game slide is -14.2 points. The Panthers have won four of their last seven games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 76 points per game. They’ve done a great job at the charity stripe, making over 86 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They turn the ball over less than 10 times per game and won’t give the Thundering Herd a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Thundering Herd have struggled defensively and they’re giving up more than 78 points per game on the road, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Panthers in this game. The Thundering Herd have lost five straight games and six straight road games. They aren’t playing well offensively and averaged less than 65 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well on the road and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Panthers. They’re also very careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Panthers, who averaged more than six steals per game in their last three games. The Panthers aren’t very good defensively, but they play better at home and won’t have trouble keeping Marshall’s cold-shooting offense in check. Furthermore, Marshall has struggled on the road this season, going just 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS. Go with Georgia State to cover the spread.
Dayton vs. Loyola-Chicago
Bet: Dayton -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
This is a small line for the much better team to cover. Dayton is ranked 25th overall in KenPom, 21st in the AP Top 25, and are the only team in the A-10 who looks like a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Dayton also has something else Loyola Chicago doesn't; a 6'10 future NBA player in their frontcourt. Holmes is a problem for all Atlantic 10 teams, he leads the conference in scoring and is third in rebounding, and will look to put on a show on national television. Dayton took two unexpected losses recently, but that will only refocus this team that still ranks 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Loyola Chicago will have a difficult time keeping up, as their offense is the worst unit in the game ranking in at 183rd in the country. Loyola Chicago had a winning streak against some of the weaker teams in the conference, but they are now running into a powerhouse. Dayton is motivated to improve their league record, because they want to ensure that if they do not win the A-10 Tournament, they still get a spot in the Big Dance.
Eastern Kentucky vs. Lipscomb
Bet: Lipscomb -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Lipscomb Bisons are 19-11 this season after they defeated Bellarmine by a score of 90-74 in their last game. Lipscomb led 35-30 at halftime and they scored 55 points in the second half in the win. The Bisons shot 54.5% from the field and made 13 three pointers in the game. Lipscomb has won three games in a row and six of their last seven. The Bisons are scoring 82.3 points per game with 33 rebounds per game and 14.7 assists per game, while giving up 76.8 points against per game this season. Will Pruitt is averaging 14.7 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, and 3.1 assists per game. Eastern Kentucky comes into this matchup in first place in the ASUN standings, but Lipscomb is only two games behind and will have the home court advantage here. Lipscomb have scored at least 84 points in six of their last seven games. The Bisons are shooting 49.6% from the field, while Eastern Kentucky is shooting 46.3% from the field. This should be a very good game and there should be no shortage of points, but we are going to take the better shooting team at home in a revenge game. Give us Lipscomb here.
Cornell vs. Pennsylvania
Bet: Cornell -4/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Cornell Big Red's exceptional performance this season, highlighted by their 20-5 overall and 9-2 conference record, makes them the undeniable pick against the Penn Quakers. Their offensive efficiency, averaging 82.4 points per game with a field goal percentage of 49.2, is among the best in the nation. Coupled with their disciplined defense, which limits opponents to a 63.4 free-throw percentage, Cornell's balanced approach on both ends of the court is formidable. The team's leading scorer, Chris Manon, averaging 12.6 points per game, along with Isaiah Gray's playmaking, sets a high bar for competition. Cornell's adjusted tempo, ranking 25th according to KenPom, suggests they play a fast-paced game, capitalizing on their opponent’s mistakes and controlling the game's flow. Cornell won 77-60 and covered the number as 8-point home chalk. Penn has failed to cover the number in 17 of its 25 games with a betting line this season. Cornell is scoring an average of 82.4 points per game and Penn is scoring just 73.5 points per game. Final Score Prediction, Cornell Big Red wins and covers ATS 79-70.
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UTEP vs. Jacksonville State
Bet: Jacksonville State -3.5/-120 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
UTEP is just 2-7 SU in its last nine games. One of those wins came at home against Jacksonville State back on February 1st, but the Gamecocks turned the ball over 19 times in that game. If they hadn't, the Miners wouldn't have won, as Jax State got the free-throw line often (39 attempts) and won the rebounding battle. The Miners have also lost four straight games, so it’s safe to say they’re not in great form at the moment. Even though they have the head-to-head win, we can’t see them turning things around on Thursday night. UTEP is still winless on the road at 0-9, and they’ve also covered the spread in only one of those nine contests. We’ll back Jacksonville State, who is going for its third straight win, and fourth straight cover ATS. Ultimately, UTEP doesn`t have the offense to stay in this game. They’re ranked just 316th in the country in offensive efficiency, scoring only 98.2 points per 100 possessions. The Miners are also 347th in turnovers per game, giving the ball away 14.8 times per game. We don’t expect them to magically find their offensive groove in this game. Jax State does not give up many extra scoring opportunities via offensive rebounds and ranks 99th in opponent FG%. On the other end of the floor, we expect the Gamecocks to work their way to the charity stripe often again in the rematch (UTEP averages 20.0 personal fouls per game), and hit enough shots to cover.
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Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
Bet: Kentucky Wildcats +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesar ) Winner
The Kentucky Wildcats earned a huge home win over Alabama on Saturday. They were firing on all cylinders, as they scored 1.46 points per possession while making over 54% of their perimeter attempts en route to 117 total points. They connected on 22 of 26 free throws and accumulated 24 assists to just 10 turnovers, seemingly putting the loss at LSU behind them. Speaking of LSU, the Tigers hosted Mississippi State after their win over Kentucky and lost by 20. The Bulldogs held the Tigers to 0.94 points per possession, forced 15 turnovers and led by as many as 27 points late in the 2nd half. While we understand the importance of home court advantage, this line seems to overvalue Mississippi State’s. The Bulldogs have lost to Southern University, who ranks 237th nationally per Ken Pom, and Alabama at home this season, proving they are not invincible on their own floor. Mississippi State’s winning streak is impressive on its surface, but each of those wins were against teams that are outside the top 5 of the conference in offensive and defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Bulldogs do not have a profile that we trust to be laying points against a high-octane offense like Kentucky’s. They turn the ball over on more than 18% of their conference possessions, and they make just 61.5% of their free throws, both of which are the worst marks in the SEC. The Wildcats seemed to have turned it around defensively in the last 2 weeks. They overperformed expectations in their last 4 games according to Haslametrics, ranking 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency over that time per BartTorvik. The improvements on the defensive end guided the Wildcats in their road upset of Auburn, and should be able to suppress Mississippi State’s already middling offense on Tuesday night. The Wildcats beat the Bulldogs by double digits at Rupp Arena despite shooting just 30% from the perimeter, yielding 1.12 points per possession and losing the offensive rebound battle by 7. This time around, the Wildcats are much better defensively, and they figure to have a bit more success from the perimeter. Not to mention, Kentucky is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, winning 3 of those games outright. Kentucky is 26-4 SU against Mississippi State since 1996. Give us the points with the Wildcats.
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Virginia Tech vs. Syracuse
Bet: Syracuse -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Orange come into this game looking for a win to move one step closer to earning an at-large tournament bid for the NCAA Tournament. They are 18-10 on the season but a dominant 13-2 at home. That should bode well against a Hokies team that has won just one game on the road this season. The Orange have won three of four and are playing their best basketball at the right time. Contrarily, the Hokies are struggling down the stretch with just two wins in their last seven games. Playing in the Dome in Syracuse is not the place to try and break out of your road struggles and it won't happen on Tuesday night for the Hokies. Syracuse has been very good at home this season, and with their postseason hopes still alive as the campaign winds down, we should see a good showing from them Tuesday night. The Orange have been lights out in the dome this season, while the Hokies have struggled to find consistency during conference play. Virginia Tech has dropped four straight road games, so let’s back that trend to extend, and roll with Syracuse here at home.
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Texas Longhorns vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Bet: Texas Tech Red Raiders -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Texas Longhorns will travel to Lubbock on Tuesday night for a Big 12 Conference game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. This matchup between two probable NCAA Tournament teams will tip off at 9:00pm Eastern Standard Time and can be seen on ESPN. It should be a great rivalry matchup between two Texas schools and will be the last regular season matchup before Texas heads to the SEC. Texas Tech is a great 11-1 at home this year and that is a major reason why we expect them to cover the spread in this one. They have the best home court advantage in the country according to KenPom and should be able to get it done against a Texas team that they have looked better than all year. The Red Raiders were able to beat the Longhorns by 11 points on the road earlier this season, so Texas Tech -4.5 is our expert pick. We like Texas Tech to have great success from beyond the arc here since they are ranked #49 in three-point percentage and the Texas defense is ranked #213 in three-point percentage, according to KenPom. The Longhorn’s defense is ranked #216 nationally in opposing three-point percentage this year and are allowing teams to shoot an incredible 39.4 percent from deep when they are playing on the road, which is ranked #350 in the country. Take Texas Tech to cover here.
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Miami-OH vs. Bowling Green
Bet: Bowling Green -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Both teams had stumbled recently before bouncing back with victories in their previous contest. The RedHawks have a slight advantage on the defensive end of the floor but they are at a disadvantage both when it comes to putting the ball in the basket and on the glass. Miami (OH) will have their hands full trying to slow down Hill and he has a solid supporting cast to rely on offensively as well. The Falcons are a solid 11-3 at home while the RedHawks are only 4-10 as the visiting team this season. Miami (OH) has dropped four of their last five on the road this season and they don’t have the pieces to beat Bowling Green on the road, who already took a 78-73 road win the last time these teams met up back on January 16. The RedHawks posted a solid win over a decent Central Michigan team in their last outing thanks to 51.9 percent shooting and 57.7 percent (15-of-26) from 3-point range. Miami-OH has been below 70 points in four of their last six games though and below 60 in three of the last five. Hill leads the way and carries the Falcons to a home win.
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Drexel vs. Delaware
Bet: Delaware -1.5/-118 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Loser
The Drexel Dragons are struggling to win games on the road. They have lost five consecutive road bouts after a loss to Hofstra on Thursday. The Delaware Blue Hens are looking good, recording the win in five of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Dragons have not been sharp defensively, allowing an average of 73.4 points in their last five bouts. The Blue Hens are playing solid defense, conceding an average of only 67 points in their last five games. Drexel has not been close in their road defeats. Each of their last three road losses has occurred by at least 10 points. Jyare Davis is capable of big numbers. The senior forward has reached 20 points on nine occasions this season. Davis scored just 13 points on Thursday and is sporting an average of 17.7 PPG and 7.5 RPG. Gerald Drumgoole Jr. has reached 20 points in three of his last five bouts. The senior guard has increased his season average to 13.9 PPG. The Blue Hens are positioned at 151st in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings and stand at 7-4 at home. Delaware is solid offensively. They are averaging 74.5 points on the season, ranking them 155th. They have allowed 58 or fewer points in two of their last four games and are conceding an average of only 70 points, placing them 120th. Delaware find themselves in a manageable revenge spot versus Drexel. The Blue Hens failed to show up in the second half during their trip to Philly last month, and after being bullied at home by Charleston, we should see much more fight from them to kick off their final week of action. Delaware will pick up a victory at home when hosting Drexel and avenge an earlier season loss to the Dragons.
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Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors
Bet: Golden State Warriors -2/-113 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Warriors are getting two points on the spread, and as of Sunday night, the moneyline is even money. The old saying goes it is tough to beat a team three times in a season, well Denver already did that, but they will not beat Golden State for a fourth time. Despite some of their struggles, Golden State has been one of the better teams against the spread this season. They are 5th in the NBA, covering 55.6% of their games, meanwhile, Denver is 26th covering 43.6% of their games. The Warriors have gotten over the shock of their new lineup, and are now going to begin reaping the benefits of playing their young and energetic stars more. Denver may also be without Murray here with swelling in his leg, Reggie Jackson is a considerable downgrade, especially when you have to play one of the best guards of all time in Curry. Draymond Green can be a pest and still has the energy to go up against Jokic inside and out and limit his production. The Warriors have discovered their defensive identity again after early-season struggles and the Nuggets will have trouble keeping up if Murray is sidelined. The Warriors will not get beat for a 4th time by the Nuggets, take Golden State against the spread.
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Maryland vs. Rutgers
Bet: Rutgers -2/-112 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
Both team's backs are against the wall on Sunday as they square off in New Jersey. The Terps and Scarlet Knights have both lost two straight games coming and the loser will likely be out of the mix for a tournament at-large bid. Before the two straight road losses, the Scarlet Knights had won four straight games and looked much better with the return of key pieces to their lineup. The low spread is critical. These two met at the beginning of February in a tightly contested defensive affair that Rutgers took by three-pointers, despite being a +7.5 underdog on the road. This season, the Terrapins are 11-16 ATS and the Scarlet Knights are 12-14 ATS. Maryland has gone 1-4 SU over their last five road games, with the four losses coming by an average margin of five points per game. The Scarlet Knights played their last two games on the road, but their two prior to there were home victories, including a 22-point win over No. 11 Wisconsin, whom Maryland just lost to. Rutgers is 11-3 at home this season and already owns a win over the Terps this season, by three in Maryland. They held the Terps to just over 30% shooting in the game. They are also 3-1 ATS in their last four games with the Terps. Rutgers is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games when they are playing as a 3 points favorite or less. Maryland is 0-10 ATS since 2020 when playing as a road underdog of 3 points or less.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs Kentucky Wildcats
Bet: Kentucky Wildcats -2/-122 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
Saturdays are for big time games, and one of this weekend’s biggest headliners is Alabama at Kentucky. We have 2 of the best and most exciting offenses in the country playing in one of basketball’s most historic venues, and with high stakes for both teams. For Alabama, it holds a 1-game lead in the SEC standings. For Kentucky, it is trying to climb back into the top 4 in the conference standings to secure the tournament bye. We are looking for the Wildcats to pull off the win in this one. The Alabama Crimson Tide are winning games but it's always a huge challenge to win at Rupp Arena. The Kentucky Wildcats have won three of their last four SEC games, this includes a big 70-59 road win against a strong Auburn squad last weekend, the same Auburn team that demolished Alabama 99-81. Furthermore, the Crimson Tide give up too many points. They have allowed at least 92 points in three of their last four games. Part of it is their pace but if Alabama's shooting isn’t clicking they will have issues. Alabama attempts an average of 30 threes per game but won't have their usual success. The Wildcats are holding opponents to only 41.8% shooting and are among the best defending the three, keeping opponents to 31.9% shooting from beyond the arc. Kentucky has certainly not been unbeatable at home, but Rupp Arena will be electric with the Crimson Tide in town. Alabama has struggled away from home, carrying only a 4-3 mark in true road games. The Tide are also likely to be missing a key starter in Latrell Wrightsell Jr, who is dealing with a concussion This is a spot for Kentucky to shine. Give us the home team in a key conference spot.
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Yale vs. Cornell
Bet: Cornell -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
In an Ivy League showdown, the Yale Bulldogs travel to Cornell to face the Big Red in a clash that could very well decide the conference's front-runner. Both teams, standing at an impressive 8-1 in conference play, bring formidable records, Yale at 17-7 and Cornell at 19-4, to a game that promises to be a titanic battle. The Yale Bulldogs have been a force to reckon with in the Ivy League, thanks to a balanced attack and stingy defense, but the Bulldogs fell flat against one of the Ivy League’s other top teams in Princeton in their last game and Cornell’s been rock solid at home, taking down the Tigers by double-digits when they met not that long ago. Also, Cornell will come into Friday’s contest with revenge on mind after losing on the road against Yale in a nail-biter, 80-78, a match in which the Big Red were painstakingly close (held a game-high 15-points lead) to pulling off an upset at Yale as 7.5-point underdogs. With their home fans behind them, the defense won't allow 80 points this time around. The Cornell Big Red has been nothing short of spectacular offensively, ranking 14th nationally with an astounding 83.6 points per game. Shooting efficiency is among the best in the country at 49.8%, led by Chris Manon and Isaiah Gray, who have been instrumental in Cornell's success. Cornell's resilience and offensive firepower, coupled with recent victories, including a commanding win against Dartmouth and a revenge-fueled motive after a loss to Yale, position them as a formidable opponent. Cornell's ability to convert from the field and depth will prove pivotal in this high-stakes matchup. Cornell is 9-0 on their home floor, and they should remain undefeated after this game.
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Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Bet: Minnesota -2.5/-120 ( sportsbook: FanDuel ) Winner
Minnesota has the best record against the spread in the entire nation, and even more shocking is that the team in second place isn't even close to the Gophers. You'd be rich if you bet Minnesota all season, they are 22-3 against the spread, covering at an insane 88% hit rate, the next best team in the nation is South Florida, covering 76.2% of their games. That alone is enough to bet Minnesota here, the Gophers are the play. Ohio State won the first matchup at home but the Buckeyes have not played well on the road this season. In the Big Ten, Ohio State is 0-7 on the road and the Buckeyes are scoring just 66.9 PPG compared to 74.9 PPG when they are at home. Minnesota is 5-2 at home in the Big Ten with those losses coming against Iowa and 13th-ranked Wisconsin. Ohio State had no answer for Garcia in their first meeting as he scored 36 points on 12-25 shooting from the field, and grabbed 10 rebounds. The 6-11 is a matchup nightmare as he is a great scorer around the rim and can even step out and shoot the three. Expect Garcia to have success again, as the word ranked unit in this game is Ohio State's defense, which is only 108th in efficiency. This is also a typical let down spot, as Ohio State just had a massive home win over Purdue, and will now struggle to bring the same level of intensity on the road in Minnesota. The Gophers will make life difficult for Jamison Battle, as he returns to play his first ever game in this arena as an opponent. Garcia will dominate Ohio State once again and the Golden Gophers will continue their success at home this season. Minnesota will get their revenge and even the season series.
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Akron vs. Toledo
Bet: Toledo -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Toledo Rockets, with a record of 16-9 overall and 10-2 in conference play, have proven themselves as a formidable force in the MAC, especially on their home turf where they've compiled a 10-2 record. Their offensive strategy, centered around scoring a MAC-leading average of 39.9 points in the paint per game, has been a significant factor in their success. Toledo's offense is a well-oiled machine, averaging 80.8 points per game (32nd nationally), propelled by a collective shooting prowess of 48.1% from the field. Ra'Heim Moss, the team's leading scorer and assist provider, averages 16.4 points and 2.9 assists per game, embodying the Rockets' offensive leadership. His partnership with Tyler Cochran, who contributes significantly with 6.8 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game, showcases Toledo's multi-faceted threat to opponents. However, it's not just about individual brilliance, the team's ability to shoot 37.6% from the 3-point line and maintain a 76.2 free-throw percentage reflects a disciplined and well-rounded offensive unit. These two teams come into this matchup as the top two teams in the MAC standings, with Akron holding a one game lead over Toledo. The Rockets will be on their home floor and they are the better offensive team, as they are scoring 80.8 points per game with 48.1% field goal shooting. Akron is the better defensive team, but they are only shooting 45.8% from the field. Also, lets not forget that Toledo is in a great revenge spot against Akron after losing on the road by a score of 77-70 on February 2nd. Toledo is 7-0 SU at home against Akron in their last 7 meetings. Toledo has one of the best offenses in the conference that will lead them to the win Tuesday night on their home floor. Final Score Prediction, Toledo Rockets win and cover 75-68.
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Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Bet: Alabama A&M Bulldogs -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Alabama A&M Bulldogs (7-18, 6-6 SWAC) are just 3-point favorites as they attempt to build on a three-game home win streak when they square off against the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (11-14, 6-6 SWAC) on Monday, February 19, 2024 at Alabama A&M Events Center. The Bulldogs’ offense has been consistent, averaging 69.4 points per game (292nd-ranked in college basketball). In terms of rebounding, it’s been a dominant stretch for Alabama A&M, who is pulling down boards per game (best in college basketball) and allowing rebounds per contest (best). The Bulldogs are putting up 75.3 points per game this season when playing at home, which is 8.1 more points than they’re averaging away from home (67.2). Dailin Smith paces the Bulldogs at 14.0 points per contest, while also averaging 0.9 assists and 3.3 rebounds. Chad Moodie averages 6.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 0.4 assists per game. Defensively, he averages 0.4 steals and 1.0 block. Cameron Tucker is averaging 8.3 points, 4.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game. Omari Peek-Green is averaging 9.0 points, 0.5 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game. UAPB has put together a 5-7-0 record against the spread in conference play this season. The Golden Lions give up 6.7 3-pointers per game and concede 31.7% from beyond the arc, ranking 140th and 66th, respectively, in college basketball. UAPB has fared worse offensively in its previous 10 games, tallying 75.3 points per contest, 5.4 fewer points its than season average of 80.7. The Bulldogs shot a solid 49 percent from the field against a struggling MS Valley State team in their last game, adding 34 rebounds and 28 points off 18 turnovers. It was a nice bounce-back on the scoreboard after a combined 122 points in their previous two games. These teams last saw each other on January 6, 2024 in a 63-62 road win for the Bulldogs, which has now extended their winning streak against Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 8 games in a row. Alabama A&M is 6-0 ATS when playing as a home favorite of 3 points or lesss since 2019. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 6-24 SU in their last 30 games when playing as an underdog of 5 points or less, and only 3 of those 6 wins have come on the road.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 19, 2024 )
Coppin State vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore
Bet: Maryland-Eastern Shore -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
In an encounter that's more potential than current standings, the Coppin State Eagles face off against the Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks. With the Eagles struggling at 2-20 and 1-7 in conference play, this season is one of searching for form and consistency. On the other side, the Hawks, with a record of 7-15 and 2-6 in the MEAC, aim to use home court advantage at the Hytche Athletic Center to win for the eighth time. The Coppin State Eagles' season has been challenging, to say the least. Averaging only 56.8 points per game and shooting at dismal rates across the board (36.7% FG, 26.1% 3PT). The Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks present a more balanced team on paper. Troy Hupstead's commanding presence, averaging 12.8 points and 8.9 rebounds, makes him a formidable force for the Hawks. Coupled with Dionte Johnson's playmaking and defensive contributions (2.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game), UMES has shown glimpses of what they are capable of achieving. Allowing an average of 70.1 points per game, underlines the Hawks strength. Victories in recent matchups, including a notable win against Norfolk, illustrate the ability to exploit defensive capabilities effectively. To triumph, UMES needs to focus on improving overall shooting accuracy and using its home court to unsettle the Eagles. With defensive solidity and offensive potential under the leadership of Troy Hupstead, Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks will prove too much for the Eagles' faltering offense. Despite Coppin State's capacity for surprise, UMES's home court advantage and better-rounded team dynamics should guide them to victory. In their last 5 home victories, UMES have averaged a margin of victory of 23 points. UMES has won 2 of the last 3 while the 2-20 Coppin state squad has lost 6 straight going back to their 2nd win of the year early january against UMES. Coppin's average margin of defeat during this span? A terrible 13.1 points difference. Final Score Prediction: Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks 72-60.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 19, 2024 )
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
Bet: Virginia Tech -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Hokies are in desperation mode coming into this matchup with rival Virginia. The Hokies have defeated Virginia at home in the last three seasons. In the first matchup, at Virginia, the Hokies gave way in the first half by shooting under 30% and falling behind by nine points. A nine-point deficit against a team like Virginia can feel like a 20-point deficit. The Hokies played Virginia evenly in the second half and it started with their ability to knock down shots from the perimeter. At home this season the Hokies are 11-2 and they will play desperately on Monday night to keep their slim tournament hopes alive. Virginia Tech's defense has not been top-notch this season, ranking just 13th in the ACC in field goal defense, but that isn't as big an issue against the poor shooting Cavs. The Cavs are coming off an unimpressive home win over Wake Forest, failing to cover and nearly blowing a lead in the final minute. Their free throw shooting was abysmal, hitting just 1-of-11 from the charity stripe ( which cost as a cover by just 1 point in that game ). This matchup will feature a Hokies team that is 1st in the ACC in free throw shooting (80%), versus a Cavs team that ranks dead last (64%). The Hokies are 11-2 at home, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Cavs. Go with the more desperate team.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 18, 2024 )
North Texas vs. UAB
Bet: UAB -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
On average, North Texas has been scoring a mediocre 66.6 points and shooting 50.7% from the field per game this season. In addition, they have been collecting 10.5 assists and 34.7 rebounds per game. Their defensive game has been strong, with an average of 3.1 blocks and 7 steals per game. On the other hand, their opponents have been averaging 61.4 points per game and shooting 45.9% from the field, while also collecting 31.4 rebounds per game. North Texas has a record of 14-8 ATS in all games with a betting line. When playing as the away team, they maintain a 5-2 record against the spread. In their 12 Conference games this season, North Texas has covered the point spread in 8 of those games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in their last 3 games and have covered 5 of their last 7 games overall. The UAB team has been scoring consistently well, with an average score of 76.4 points per game and a shooting percentage of 49.1% from the field. They also excel in collecting 12.7 assists and 38.4 rebounds per game. Additionally, they are strong in defense, with an average of 4.7 blocks and 6.4 steals per game. However, their opponents have been putting up a tough fight, scoring an average of 75.9 points against UAB and shooting 50.% from the field, while also managing to collect an average of 35.7 rebounds per game. The Blazers have been performing well this season with a record of 13-9-1 in all games with a betting line. As the home team, they have a record of 6-5-1 against the spread. Against Conference opponents, The Blazers have been particularly strong, boasting a record of 8-2-1 against the betting line. UAB is difficult to beat at home, in fact, they have yet to lose at home in conference play and has covered the point spread in their last 5 games and has managed to cover in 8 out of their last 9 games. Go with the UAB Blazers to cever the spread.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 17, 2024 )
Wake Forest vs. Virginia ( Score: 47-49 )
Bet: Virginia -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
This is one of the many excellent college basketball games on the docket on Saturday. The oddsmakers see Virginia as just a 2.5-point favorite, so we are going to lay the points while it’s inside of a full possession. This is 100% a fade of Wake Forest in this spot. They’ve really struggled on the road this season, going just 2-6 both SU and ATS in true road games. Furthermore, they’re only 1-6 SU as an underdog. The Demon Deacons beat the teams that they’re supposed to and also lose to the teams that they’re supposed to. We don’t trust them to step up on the road against a ranked opponent like Virginia. Virginia suffered their first home loss of the year in their defeat to Pitt, falling to 13-1 at home. The Cavaliers have been suffocating defensively at home, giving up more than 60 points just twice in their 14 games in Charlottesville. Virginia feeds off the home crowd and their defense does the job, giving them a split of the season series. Finally, it’s worth pointing out that the Cavaliers are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings between the teams when the game takes place in Charlottesville. Let’s lock in Virginia.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 15, 2024 )
Louisiana vs. Old Dominion (ODU)
Bet: Louisiana -4/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are our definitive pick for this matchup, buoyed by a potent offense and stringent defense that has propelled them to a 16-9 overall and 8-4 conference record. Boasting an impressive average of 77.6 points per game, their ability to maintain a 46.6% field goal efficiency and a stellar 36.9% from the three-point line stands out. This offensive firepower is complemented by a defense that limits opponents to a mere 26.1% from beyond the arc, ranking second nationally, showcasing the Ragin' Cajuns' capability to dominate both ends of the court. With Kobe Julien leading the scoring charge with 18.2 points per game and Joe Charles anchoring the defense across rebounds, steals, and blocks, Louisiana possesses the depth and versatility to outmatch Old Dominion. The Cajuns' recent performances, underscored by a commanding win against BGSU, highlight a team in prime form, ready to extend their winning narrative against the Monarchs. Jeff Jones, Old Dominion’s head coach, stepped away from the team for health issues nine games into the season. Since then, the Monarchs have been in a free fall, losing 13 of their 16 games. They’ve been horrendous at home this season, going 4-7 SU and 2-8 ATS. So, it’s not even like you can play that angle and hope they keep the game close. We think Louisiana is going to steamroll Old Dominion in this game. They’ve been on fire recently, winning eight of their last nine games. Their average margin of victory over the nine-game sample size is +11.7. Furthermore, the Ragin’ Cajuns come into this game ranked 124th in adjusted efficiency margin (+4.76) while Old Dominion is just 273rd (-8.14). This is a very forgettable season for the Monarch. Let’s lock in the Ragin’ Cajuns.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 13, 2024 )
St. John's vs. Providence
Bet: Providence -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
St John's led for the entire game in the last matchup between these two teams but they collapsed in the second half and nearly gave the game away. In 13 Big East games, St John's has been outscored in the second half in seven of them. The Red Storm have played very well at home this season but are just 1-5 in the Big East on the road. Providence has played their best basketball at home as they are 4-2 at home in the Big East. The main reason that Providence succeeds at home is that their offense is much more potent. The Friars jump to 47.7% shooting and 77.4 points per game at home. St. John's allows 76.1 points per game on the road and has already allowed Providence to score 73 against them this season. St. John's is facing a defense that surrenders fewer than 70 points per game this season. The Red Storm also lost the turnover battle against Providence in the first matchup. Providence guard, Devin Carter, scored 31 points in the first matchup and shot 11-19 from the field. Providence has beaten two top-25 teams at home and they have found a great offensive rhythm without Bryce Hopkins in the lineup. St John's has played terribly on the road and they have given away second-half leads a lot this season. Providence will get another big game from Devin Carter and will explode in the second half to take control of this game and move to .500 in the Big East. Expect the Friars to win and beat the spread.
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 12, 2024 )
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Bet: Los Angeles Clippers -4/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
In what's shaping up to be a titanic tussle for the top spot in the Western Conference, the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Los Angeles Clippers at the Crypto.com Arena on February 12th, 10:30 PM ET. Both teams are neck and neck in the standings, with Minnesota slightly edging out Los Angeles for the premier position. The Clippers have been one of the most dominant teams in the league over the last two months. They have plenty of dangerous offensive weapons. The Clippers’ defense isn’t as good as the Timberwolves’, but LA certainly owns enough firepower to deal with Minnesota’s offense. LA leads the NBA in 3-point percentage (39.7%). James Harden (17.3 PPG, 8.5 APG) is doing a great job at point guard, so we are backing the Clippers to beat Minnesota by four or more points. Kawhi Leonard will guard Anthony Edwards and help his team to come out on top. Back in January, Minnesota edged LA 109-105 as a 1-point home favorite. That was a game where Ivica Zubac was out for LA and Rudy Gobert had 18 rebounds for Minnesota. The Clippers played the Timberwolves tough in that game, despite missing their center. You have to think that the script will be flipped for this game in Los Angeles. The Clippers have gone 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS over their previous nine outings at home. The Timberwolves are still missing Jaylen Clark and Jordan McLaughlin, while the Clippers don’t have a single player listed on the injury report at the moment. We are taking the Clippers to get their revenge at home in this spot.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 9, 2024 )
San Diego State vs. Nevada
Bet: Nevada -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
This season, San Diego State is 9-11-1 ATS and Nevada is 14-8 ATS. Both teams have played a ranked Utah State team within their last two games and the Aztecs beat them by 14 at home while the Pack won by 17 on the road. The hosts can cap a very nice week with a win in this one. They are 2-1 SU against ranked teams in the conference and they are staunch about defending their home turf. San Diego State is 4-5 SU on the road this season and 2-7 ATS away from home. Nevada is 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS at home. Nevada suffered a three-game losing streak in the middle of January, but it has bounced back with three wins in its last four games. The Wolf Pack picked up wins over a pair of ranked teams during that stretch, beating No. 24 Colorado State and No. 22 Utah State. They also cruised to a 90-60 win over San Jose State last Friday, so they have found their best form heading into their final nine games of the regular season. Sophomore forward Nick Davidson led Nevada with 25 points and 10 rebounds in the 77-63 win over Utah State on Tuesday, shooting 10 of 14 from the floor. Senior guard Kenan Blackshear, who is averaging 15.7 points and 4.7 assists per game, added 18 points in the win over the Aggies. Senior guard Jarod Lucas is in the fifth season of his collegiate career and is averaging a team-high 17.0 points per game. These two have already met once this year and the Aztecs smothered the Wolf Pack, winning at home by 12 as -6.5 favorites, but Nevada is putting up 5.5 more points at home than they are on the road this year, they’ll just need to play stronger on the blocks, with a firmer commitment to grabbing rebounds. The Wolf Pack have a veteran lineup and play with a significant home-floor edge, and San Diego State has struggled away from home this year, they are just 2-7 against the spread away from home this year, going 1-3 as an underdog and 1-4 as a favorite. Also, San Diego State’s 3 January conference losses are too tough to ignore. Take the Wolf Pack giving the points.
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 6, 2024 )
Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns
Bet: Phoenix Suns -3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The hype (if there even was any) after the hire of Doc Rivers has already died down, as the Bucks have just 1 victory in 4 games with him at the helm. We bet Milwaukee can’t wait for the all-star break. Out of all the top teams in the NBA, we would argue this one has the most work to do ahead of it as we move into the latter parts of the regular season. The Bucks just blew a 19-point lead at Utah after getting outscored 40-13 in the 4th quarter, which led to a 123-108 loss. That’s not ideal going into a matchup against one of the hotter teams in the league in the Phoenix Suns. To make matters worse, Damian Lillard is a questionable to play with an ankle injury. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are game-time decisions but are expected to suit up. Phoenix wrapped up a somewhat successful 7-game road trip with a convincing 28-point win at Washington. Bradley Beal led the way against his former team with 43 points, securing the Suns’ 10th win in 13 games. He has really clicked with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. If the Big 3 can maintain this level of production moving forward, the Suns could very well end up being one of the top 4 seeds in the West. Milwaukee’s defense hasn’t had much success containing Durant, Beal and Booker individually. Beal is at 33.8, Durant is at 33.1, while Booker is at 26.4 points per game in their last 10 games againts the Bucks. With that kind of firepower at their disposal plus home-court advantage, it’s really hard not to go with the Suns in this game. The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing their 5th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days. The Bucks are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. The Suns are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 home games off 5 consecutive games where they made 47% of their shots or better. Phoenix is 13-1 ATS when playing as a 5 points favorite or less against Milwaukee since 1994.
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 3, 2024 )
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New York Knicks
Bet: New York Knicks -4/-117 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Knicks have won nine straight games and seven straight home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 114 points per game. They also did a good job at the charity stripe in recent games, making over 83 percent of their free throws in their last three games. They’re one of the best rebounding teams in the league and they grabbed 15 offensive boards per game in their last three games, so expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances. They also turned the ball over less than nine times per game in their last three games and won’t give the Lakers many easy-scoring opportunities. The Lakers have struggled defensively this season and they’re giving up more than 120 points per game on the road, so expect the Knicks to have their way offensively in this game. The Lakers have lost six of their last eight road games. They have played well offensively on the road, scoring more than 116 points per game. They haven’t been as good at the charity stripe and made less than 65 percent of their free throws in their last three road games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Knicks and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’re also careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Knicks, who average more than seven steals per game. They are likely to be without their top two scorers in James and Davis and the odds are against Reeves shooting lights out as he did against Boston. With New York holding opponents under 105 points per game at home and their last three opponents to 100 points per game, the Lakers will struggle offensively in this game. Go with New York to cover the spread.
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 2, 2024 )
Sacramento Kings vs. Indiana Pacers
Bet: Sacramento Kings -2.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The second game of a back to back is a notorious place for players with minor injuries or veteran players to rest. With that being said, here is a look at Indy's players currently listed as questionable with minor injuries: Haliburton, Mathurin, Smith, McConnell. Those four players score 56.1 points per game, that is a lot of production that could potentially miss this game. Haliburton may play, especially with the NBA's new 65-game rule for award eligibility, but it may be in limited fashion. Haliburton played against Boston in their last game, but only played 22 minutes, far less than he typically plays. Meanwhile on the other side of the court, the Kings are at full health and are powering through this road trip picking up wins against strong teams. The Kings defeated the Mavericks, Warriors, and Grizzlies on their trip and are trying to stay near the top of the competitive Western Conference. Injuries aside, all of the Pacers still have to play against a tough Knicks team in New York, then fly home to play the Kings the very next night. This is undoubtedly a game the Kings had circled on their calendar after dropping a 126-121 decision at home against the Pacers back on January 18th. Indiana has thrived on volume-shooting lately but that will not work against Sacramento. The Kings have held eight of their last 11 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited three of their last four foes to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Indiana has allowed more than 40 made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games with seven opponents reaching at least 44 over that stretch. The Kings are 14-9 ATS in their last 23 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite. They're also 13-7 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, Indiana is just 6-9 ATS against Western Conference opponents this season.
That is a tough spot, and Sacramento will take advantage. Take the Kings to cover.
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 1st, 2024 )
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Bet: Cleveland Cavaliers -7/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Push
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have been doing most of their damage despite not being at full strength. But now they are at full strength with both Evan Mobley and Darius Garland returning to the lineup. They take on the most injury-riddled team in the NBA in the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. The Grizzlies have 10 players on the injury report right now and are missing all of their best players outside Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies are 5-16 SU & 6-15 ATS at home this season. The Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Memphis is 1-11 ATS against good teams that outscore their opponents by 3 or more points per game this season. That's without mentioning Cleveland's defense (2nd in defensive rating) against Memphis' offense (30th in offensive rating). A battle like that is a complete mismatch in almost every way. Cleveland is also ninth in three-point attempts per game, so they can avoid Jaren Jackson Jr.'s defense in the paint. The Cavs are 11-1 in their last 12 games, going 9-3 ATS during this stretch. In their 11-1 run, 10 of the 11 wins have been by at least 7 points with 9 of the 11 coming by double-digits. Give us the Cavaliers.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for January 16, 2024 )
Baylor vs Kansas State
Bet: Kansas State +1/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
KSU is coming off a tough 1 point loss @ Texas Tech in a game they led by double digits in the 2nd half. The Cats have won 23 of their last 25 home games and face a Baylor team that has played only ONE true road game this season. That was an OT win for the Bears @ Okie State who ranks as the 2nd worst team in the Big 12 per KenPom ahead of only WVU. The only other sort of true road game the Bears played was vs Michigan State in Detroit and they lost that game by 24 points. Baylor leads the nation in 3 point shooting percentage hitting nearly 44% of their triples which absolutely has to regress. We’ve actually seen that regression in Big 12 play as they are hitting just under 30% of their triples in their 3 conference games. The vast majority of their games have been at home which helps the shooting percentage but in their road games (the 2 listed above) the Bears made only 8 of their 34 three point attempts. KSU struggled at times early in the year as they were meshing a number of new high level transfers into their starting line up. This team is now trending up winning 9 of their last 11 games and they had a very solid 14-2 Texas Tech team on the ropes on the road Saturday before losing by 1 point. In their 3 Big 12 games KSU ranks 2nd in the conference in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency while Baylor sits at 6th in both of those metrics in league play. Wildcat head coach Jerome Tang was an assistant coach @ Baylor for 20 years thru 2022 season bringing some extra motivation here. He beat Baylor in both meetings last season and we expect another win here for Tang and the Wildcats.
NCAAB Bet Refund Guaranteed TIP ( December 22, 2023 ) Colorado State Rams +4.5 Loser
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for December 20, 2023 )
Atlanta Hawks vs. Houston Rockets
Bet: Houston Rockets -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Rockets have been an absolute force on their home court, securing 11 consecutive victories, setting the stage for an exciting clash tonight. Houston has an added incentive to perform well in this game, as they seek to rebound from back-to-back losses and continue their upward trajectory this season. One of their key assets has been center Alperen Sengun, who leads the team in scoring, averaging an impressive 19.9 points per game. What makes Sengun particularly formidable is his ability to dominate in the paint, where the Hawks have struggled defensively. The Hawks are not playing well right now, as evidenced by a 2-14-0 ATS record entering this game and those wins include a two-pointer victory over the Spurs and Monday's six-point contest against the Pistons. That's not very encouraging basketball, their defense lags behind, ranking 28th with 122.7 points allowed per game. Meanwhile, Houston's 11-game winning streak at home includes the Thunder and the Nuggets twice. The Rockets are a completely different team at home, allowing only 97.8 points per game. Additionally, the Rockets hold a significant advantage in rebounding, ranking 6th in the league compared to the Hawks' 13th.
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for December 13, 2023 )
Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors
Bet: Toronto Raptors -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Backing Atlanta to cover the spread has been an absolute disaster lately. It has failed to do so in its last 7 games. The Hawks’ latest defeat came at the hands of the defending champion Nuggets, 129-122 at home. Bogdan Bogdanovic caught fire in that game, but even his 10 threes couldn’t prevent a 4th loss in a row for Atlanta. Things aren’t looking good as the Hawks head to Toronto to face a team that’s beaten them 14 times in the last 20 meetings and the Hawks have given up at least 125 points in four of their last five games. To make matters worse, Trae Young is a game-time decision due to right-shoulder soreness. Considering that’s his shooting hand, he could struggle in this game if he does play. The Hawks are 3-15 against the spread in their last 18 games vs teams allowing more than 102 points per game.
The Hawks are 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 games after a day off. The Hawks rank 28th in PPG allowed, 28th in field goal percentage allowed, and 23rd in three-point percentage allowed. Atlanta is 26th in points per 100 possessions allowed and 29th in effective field goal percentage allowed. It is just hard to trust the Hawks right now, even if they are playing an opponent who is not that great. The Raptors can find enough offense against a defense like this and score, while the Hawks could be down as many as three starters. Even if Young and Hunter play, the Hawks have to get more from their bench (outside of Bogdanovic). Bogdanovic should be in the running for the 6th man of the year, but the rest of the bench has been underwhelming. Garrison Matthews, Wesley Matthews, Onyeka Okongwu, and everyone else has to score more and make an impact on the game, which they have not been doing. Toronto is 17-4 SU when playing as a 4 points favorite or less in their last 21 games against Atlanta, and with the Raptors practically at full health for their active roster heading into the day, you have to back them to get a win over a reeling Atlanta team.
NBA Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for December 11, 2023 )
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Bet: Orlando Magic -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Cleveland has won three straight games, going 2-0-1 ATS, and has been victorious in five of its last six games to move to 13-9 on the season. The Cavaliers are sitting in the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference and are in a tough spot with a pair of games at Boston on deck. The Cavaliers have been a much better team on the road as they are 7-3 and that is keeping this price sport. Orlando snapped a two-game losing streak with a blowout home win over Detroit on Friday to improve to 15-7 on the season, good for a tie for No. 2 with Milwaukee in the conference. The Magic have been exceptional on defense as they are No. 2 in defensive efficiency which is a vast improvement from their No. 17 ranking last season. Orlando has been dominant at home where it is 10-1 and outscoring opponents by over 14 ppg. Overall, the Magic are a perfect 8-0 when favored. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win by 20 points or more. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 11, 2023 )
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Bet: New York Giants +6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
This is a sell-high point for a Packers team that has seen their stock blow up over the last couple of weeks. Keep in mind that is the same squad that was a 3-point underdog at home against the Chargers just three weeks ago. Meanwhile, the New York Giants have also been playing relatively well despite most giving them up for dead after they lost QB Daniel Jones to a season-ending injury and replaced him with undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito. DeVito looked awful in his first two starts but has played better recently, leading the G-Men to back-to-back victories against the Commanders and Patriots. Granted, those are two of the worst teams in the league but he still completed 68.6% of his passes for 437 yards with four TDs and no picks despite facing constant pressure. Green Bay's defense also isn't as good as New England's, with the Packers ranking just 22nd in defensive EPA. That Green Bay stop unit could be even worse with top corner Jaire Alexander and leading tackler Quay Walker sidelined and two other starters in the secondary listed as questionable. This is a Green Bay defense that has struggled to defend the run all season, surrendering 136.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. That works out perfectly for a Giants team that will look to lean on star running back Saquon Barkley to control the clock. Expect him to shred a Packers squad that ranks 23rd in the league in defensive rush EPA on the season and has given up 160.8 rushing yards per game over their last four contests. The Packers are also hurting on offense, with wide receiver Christian Watson out with a hamstring injury and running back Aaron Jones questionable with a knee injury. This is a letdown spot for a banged-up Packers side.
NFL Revenge Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 10, 2023 )
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -3/-118 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
We start in the NFC East with a huge rivalry showdown in the Lone Star State on Sunday night. The Eagles were handed their worst loss in nearly two years after a 41-19 thrashing at the hands of the 49ers in the NFC Championship rematch at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday evening. Meanwhile, the Cowboys held off a feisty Seahawks' team in a high-scoring 41-35 victory to start Week 13 last Thursday night. Both teams are great covering the spread this year but this matchup features a huge disadvantage between the Cowboys' offense and the Eagles' defense. Since its bye in Week 7, Dallas has 40+ points in four of their past six contests and have only been held below 30 points once, ironically by the Eagles in Week 9. They've scored a league-high 388 points and are averaging 41 points per game at home in 2023. On the other side, the Eagles defense has surrendered an asinine 961 total yards in back-to-back games and have given up the third most passing yards in the entire NFL this season. With the Eagles coming off a physical loss against the 49ers, this should be a tough matchup on the road. They’ve played the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers over the last four weeks. The Cowboys are coming off a 41-35 win over the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Ultimately, that little extra time to prepare should be the difference for the Cowboys. This is a no brainer and we are taking the Cowboys as our NFL Revenge Game of the Year No Limit Play.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 10, 2023 )
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns
Bet: Cleveland Browns -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Jacksonville Jaguars suffered several key injuries in their OT loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. QB Trevor Lawrence and his favorite target in WR Christian Kirk both got hurt in that game. Even if Lawrence does, he would be playing at about 50% with a high ankle sprain. Whoever is under center will be playing behind a shoddy offensive line that is missing both starting tackles. They will also be playing against a Cleveland defense that has been ferocious at home this year. The Browns are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season where they are holding opponents to just 10.2 points per game, 175.7 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play. Joe Flacco showed enough against the Rams last week that he still can get the job done at QB. The Jaguars allowed 491 total yards to Cincinnati and backup QB Jake Browing last week, including 156 on the ground. The Browns can pound the rock in this one if they want to. Furthermore, while the Jaguars haven't ruled Trevor Lawrence out, but he is dealing with an ankle sprain. Even if he plays, he will not be at 100%. This is ideal for the Browns who continue to make it difficult for opposing QBs. They are allowing an average of only 153 passing yards per game which is #1 in the NFL. Jacksonville is also playing without receiving leader Christian Kirk. The Jaguars have not been able to generate many yards on the ground. They only averaged 2.8 yards per rush against the Bengals last week. Furthermore, while the Jaguars haven't ruled Trevor Lawrence out, but he is dealing with an ankle sprain. Even if he plays, he will not be at 100%. This is ideal for the Browns who continue to make it difficult for opposing QBs. They are allowing an average of only 153 passing yards per game which is #1 in the NFL. Jacksonville is also playing without receiving leader Christian Kirk. The Jaguars have not been able to generate many yards on the ground. They only averaged 2.8 yards per rush against the Bengals last week. The Browns should be able to do well and bounce back after a defensive struggle last week to cover the spread.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 7, 2023 )
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Patriots make a trip to Pittsburgh for some Thursday Night Football with the Steelers. This isn’t a game for the faint of heart to tune into watch. Both teams have gotten dismal performances from their quarterbacks this season and it may well end up being a battle of backup quarterbacks. These two met last season, a 17-14 win by the Patriots on the road. This was about the last time that the Patriots may have mattered. They have morphed into one of the worst offenses ever committed to an NFL football field and that won’t change with the loss of Stevenson. Somehow, it keeps getting worse for New England, who were felled by a pair of field goals. They managed 254 total yards versus Los Angeles and lost top running back Rhamondre Stevenson (high ankle sprain) for the season in the process. Zappe is not the answer either and the New England coaching staff seems to be snoozing at the wheel. Keep in mind that Trubisky would be the best quarterback for the Patriots. New England has a grand total of 13 points over a three-game span. The Patriots have been shut out twice and scored in single digits five times this season. Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to send this offense home with little to nothing to show for their efforts.
NFL Invincible Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 3, 2023 )
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 buy half point/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Push
We’ve got an NFC South rivalry battle here in Week 13 as the Carolina Panthers travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’ll be the first game for the Panthers after they fired Frank Reich less than a year into his tenure at the helm. The team is hoping that firing Reich and a couple of offensive assistants will be enough to spark something in Bryce Young down the stretch but we are not too optimistic, especially on the road against a Todd Bowles defense. Bowles is one of the best in the league at mixing up blitz packages to confuse young quarterbacks, and we just saw that a couple of weeks ago when Tampa faced Will Levis and the Titans. They held Tennessee to just 6 points in that game as Levis struggled mightily. Carolina enters this one at 1-10, and most of their losses haven’t been close. Firing Reich isn’t going to change the fact that the team’s top receiver is an over-the-hill Adam Thielen, and Thielen has over 400 yards more than #2 Jonathan Mingo. Miles Sanders has been a total bust as a free agent signing and is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, so don’t count on the ground game being able to bail them out here when Young inevitably struggles with Tampa’s pass-rush. Young hasn’t just been bad, he’s been consistently bad. Even most tumultuous rookie campaigns have some flashes of brilliance and bright spots to point to, but Young hasn’t really looked the part in a single game this season. Young has only averaged more than 6.3 yards per attempt once all season, and that was over a month ago at home against the Texans in a game where he still took 6 sacks. While Tampa Bay has been poor thus far on the season with a 4-7 record, they are 7-4 ATS in their 11 games played. On top of that, Carolina has yet to win a game on the road in six tries and the Panthers are 1-8-2 against the spread. The firing of Frank Reich, Josh McCown, and Duce Staley might bring about a necessary shock for Carolina, but it ultimately won't be enough for this game. The Panthers are still a mess on both sides of the ball and have several key players on the injured list. Tampa at least has a solid rushing defense and Bryce Young does not present an intimidating factor for their secondary. The Panthers will become one-dimensional quickly and eventually lose the game by at least a touchdown. The Panthers have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record. The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against NFC opponents. The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Buccaneers' last eight games at Raymond James Stadium. Back the Buccaneers against the spread.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 2, 2023 )
Georgia vs. Alabama
Bet: Georgia -5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The two titans of the SEC will square off for the second time in three years in the SEC Championship Game. The Georgia Bulldogs enter Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta as the team to beat in college football once again. To the extent that an undefeated team can have a slow start, the 2023 Bulldogs did. Georgia began the year 0-4-1 against the spread before covering four of its final seven games. UGA absolutely demolished its final two SEC opponents of the season, routing Ole Miss 52-17 as 11-point home favorites before crushing Tennessee 38-10 as 8.5-point road chalk. Though he wasn’t as prolific as Stetson Bennett in 2022, junior quarterback Carson Beck kept the Georgia passing game strong, averaging 291.3 yards per game with an excellent 72.4 completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He actually finished the regular season with a higher QBR than Bennett did last year (168.2 vs 161.2), even though future first-round tight end Brock Bowers missed three games, including the season finale against Georgia Tech, which saw a seriously-depleted UGA team gut out a 31-23 win. However, there is no suggestion Bowers is going to miss the SEC title game, though he is listed as questionable. After losing 34-24 at home to Texas in Week 2, Alabama went a perfect 10-0 but not without much difficulty. Three of Alabama’s wins were decided by six points or fewer (26-20 at Texas A&M, 24-21 vs Arkansas, and 27-24 at Auburn). Last week’s Iron Bowl victory was the most improbable of the bunch, as Bama converted a final-minute fourth-and-goal from the 31 to earn the three-point win. While Alabama’s defense is filled with future NFL talent, they don’t have the same on offense, and it’s showed. Alabama only averaged 409.1 yards of offense per game (231.5 passing and 177.6 rushing), which was just 49th out 133 FBS teams. The Tide did manage to score 40 or more points five times, but were also held under 30 six times. Concerningly for an already mediocre offense, starting RB Jase McClellan (803 rushing yards on 166 carries) finished the Auburn game on the sideline in a walking boot. His status for the SEC Championship is unclear, but he missed practice on Monday and Tuesday, which doesn’t bode well. Already thin in the backfield, Alabama can ill afford to subtract McClellan from the offense. If Georgia is close to healthy, they are a significantly better team than Alabama, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They nearly doubled-up both Ole Miss (611 to 352) and Tennessee (472 to 277) in total yardage. Their narrow victories over Missouri (30-21) and Georgia Tech (31-23) both came without Bowers. While head coach Kirby Smart will never state so expressly, he likely held out several players from the Georgia Tech game so that they would be closer to 100% against Alabama. Georgia's offense is the star of the team this season, and that should show on the Atlanta turf, and Saturday's success on the ground should inject more confidence into the offense that it can beat Alabama in every way possible with its offense. Alabama displayed more flaws throughout the season, and as it did on Saturday against Auburn, it has had to pull out some close wins. With this game in Atlanta, as well, we will take UGA to cover the 5 points spread.
NFL Favorite Game of the Week No Limit Play ( Play released for November 26, 2023 )
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -3/-105 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Push
The Buffalo Bills visit the Philadelphia Eagles in what could be the game of the week on Sunday. The Bills are not having the season they planned at 6-5, but they are coming off a 32-6 win against the Jets. There have been questions about their offense all season and WR Stefon Diggs has made it known that he is not happy with the team. The Dolphins are the only likely playoff team that the Bills have beaten this season and 5 of their 6 wins were against weaker teams, which suggests they do not show up when they are facing a good opponent. In fact, the Bills have gone just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games, having SU wins against the Giants as a 15 points home favorites ( 9-14 final score ), against Tampa Bay as a 10 points home favorites ( 18-24 final score ), and against the Jets as 8.5 home favorites (6-32 final score ). The Eagles, on the other hand, are 9-1 on the season and coming off a huge win against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs on Monday. The Eagles are rolling, especially on offense with QB Jalen Hurts been able to make deep throws downfield or scramble for a big gain. He also has WR AJ Brown, who is having a huge season and has already surpassed the 1,000 receiving yard mark. This team can beat you through the air or on the ground with D’Andre Swift and that is what makes them so hard to stop. We expect the Bills defense to struggle defending this high-powered Eagles offense and to give up a lot of points. Philadelphia is 28-4 SU in their last 32 games when playing as the favorite. Philadelphia is 19-3 SU in their last 22 games played on a Sunday. We are taking the Eagles on the spread.
NCAAF Shocker Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 25, 2023 )
Florida State vs. Florida
Bet: Florida State -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The face-off between Florida State and Florida has been dubbed the Battle of the Backups with both starting quarterbacks out for this important game. While we would never cheer on injuries, this has swung the value to the Seminoles’ side with a smaller spread. FSU’s backup quarterback is more of a pocket passer than the dual-threat Jordan Travis. However, even though Travis could scramble with his legs he only averaged 2.4 yards per carry on 73 attempts. His absence will put the focus, in the running game, more on Trey Benson. Benson has averaged 6.2 yards per carry on 119 attempts and has scored 11 touchdowns. Looking at Florida State’s past games this season, Virginia Tech’s defense is similar to that of the Gators. In fact, both V Tech and Florida allow exactly 161 yards rushing per game. In the game against Virginia Tech, FSU’s Trey Benson had his best game of the season rushing for 200 yards on 14 carries, a career high for the junior back. It was the first game of the season for FSU where they emphasized the run, similar to what this week will be against the Gators. Additionally, though Tate Rodemaker is a backup quarterback, he has been around the program for 4 years. He'll lean on that exposure to operate FSU's gameplan. On the Gator side, QB Max Brown is a redshirt freshman with less experience. Despite losing their starting quarterback, the Florida State squad is a fine oiled machine. Their offense has been impressive this season and their defense has been outstanding. The Florida Gator offense has allowed 3 sacks per game this year which is 119th in the nation. FSU's playmakers, including Jared Verse are going to make it frustrating for the young quarterback. Additionally, the Florida Gators only convert 3rd downs 33.5% of the time which means the defense of FSU will stay rested. Ultimately, FSU has a lot to prove in this game to reenter the conversation of the final four teams that will play for the National Championship game this year. This game is their one chance to do it. FSU wins here like they did last year in this rivalry game. FSU -6.5.
NCAAF Underdog Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 25, 2023 )
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines
Bet: Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
At first glance, this number feels a little short given that it’s likely a reaction to what we’ve just seen. Michigan probably should’ve lost to Maryland on the road a week after a fairly uninspiring effort against Penn State, even in a victory. However, after digging into the film and box scores for both of these teams, Ohio State has improved considerably as the season has gone on, including a couple of dominant performances in recent weeks to bring this line down to 3.5 from the lookahead number of 6. There’s also the factor of Jim Harbaugh not being on the sidelines, so that could work in Ohio State’s favor as well as it relates to in-game decisions, halftime adjustments and more. It’s not lost on us that Harbaugh’s noticeable absence on the sidelines might’ve really affected JJ McCarthy under center. The Wolverines offense has been extremely conservative under acting head coach Sherrone Moore, a product of an offensive line that is much worse than it has been in previous years. It also likely impacted the effectiveness and confidence of Michigan’s quarterback, who was already a player that we had major questions about in big games. Since Moore took over, McCarthy is just 19-of-31 passing with 0 touchdowns and an interception, to go along with 4 turnover-worthy throws over the last 2 weeks. Now, in steps an Ohio State defense under DC Jim Knowles that should be able to contain a Michigan offense that has a serious explosiveness problem, particularly in the passing game. The visitors will have the best player on the field in Marvin Harrison Jr., who should see consistent success against Michigan’s corners, opening up avenues for Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover to make plays over the middle of the field. Ultimately, we can’t trust the Michigan offensive line and passing game, while Ohio State is peaking at the right time. Let’s back the Buckeyes in “The Game”.
NFL Teaser Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 23, 2023 )
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Bet: 6.5 points teaser: Detroit Lions -1 and Dallas Cowboys -6/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
Washington’s playoff hopes likely were flushed down the toilet with their loss to the Giants at home Sunday. Turning the ball over six times and giving up four sacks to a Giants’ team that has been bad this season is concerning. Washington gave up 10 sacks to the Giants in their two meetings this season: by comparison, New York has just nine sacks in their other nine games combined. Now, you have to block Micah Parsons and a Dallas defense that has rung up 33 sacks, including 12 in the last two weeks. Howell has been running for his life this season, getting sacked a league-high 51 times. The Commanders don’t have the weapons to keep up in a shootout and they lack the run game to control the clck. Dallas waltzes to the home victory in this contest.
We already have the one meeting at Lambeau earlier in the season, a game where the Lions looked fantastic and won 34-20. We think we could see something in a similar range this time. we simply don’t have enough trust in Jordan Love to keep this game close especially at the hostile Ford Field. The quarterback is completing just 56.9% of his passes on the road and he has thrown six of his 10 interceptions away from home. Factor in the injuries to David Bakhtiari (out), Aaron Jones (questionable), and Jaire Alexander (questionable), and we think Detroit wins by at least two possessions.
NFL Invincible Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 19, 2023 )
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -10.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Dallas is a bully. They beat up on the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams that are superior to them. Take a look at their scores vs inferior teams this season. They beat the Giants twice by 32 & 40 points, beat the Rams by 23 points, beat the Patriots 35 points, and beat the Jets by 20 points. Their lone poor performance vs an inferior team was @ Arizona back in September. When a heavy favorite, Dallas usually rolls big. They are playing at the top of their game right now as well. Since their bye week the Cowboys have played 3 games and they are averaging 38 PPG. Since week 6 this offense is averaging 42.4 yards per drive which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period. They have scored a touchdown on 37.2% of their drives over that span which is 2nd best in the league. On Sunday they are facing a Carolina defense that is fading fast allowing a league-high 2.42 points per drive over their past five games. How are the offensively challenged Panthers going to keep up in this game? We don’t think they can. Carolina has scored 13, 13, and 15 points in their last 3 games vs defenses ranked 15th, 21st, and 26th in total defense. Now they face a Dallas defense that ranks 3rd in total defense and 4th in YPP allowed. The Boys also put all kinds of pressure on opposing QB’s ranking 4th in the NFL in sack percentage and facing a rookie QB Young who has already been sacked 29 times this season. Bryce Young is 30th in QBR and the offense has trouble running the ball averaging only 90 YPG on the ground. 5 of their 8 losses have come by double digits this season and 5 of the Cowboys 6 wins have come by at least 20 points. This is a hefty number but we just don’t see how the Carolina offense will be able to keep up in this game. Lay it.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 18, 2023 )
Utah Utes vs. Arizona Wildcats
Bet: Arizona Wildcats ML/+100 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Jedd Fisch’s team has still been an ATM this season, and we are not convinced that the betting market is accounting for what they have accomplished to this point. As we`ve said for over a month now, this is a different tea, with Noah Fifita under center and a trio of excellent wide receivers at his disposal. This offense is predicated on getting the ball out quickly and that is the best method of success against a Utah defense that was recently shredded by the quick passing attack of Oregon. The Utes are already a weaker team away from the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium and a trip to the desert is not a welcome one for a team that will be playing its second straight road game on Saturday. The most underrated unit in this game is Arizona’s defense as the Wildcats are 37th in early-downs EPA, 32th in EPA per pass and 28th in EPA per rush (CFB-Graphs). That unit shouldn’t struggle this weekend against a Utah offense that is constantly behind the chains (123rd in early downs EPA), can’t throw the ball consistently (118th in EPA per dropback) and is banged up at the running back position as well. Outside of games against Washington, USC and Arizona State (all poor run defenses), this Utah offense has struggled to get anything going in conference play. All of these signals point to a win at home for the Wildcats, and we have full confidence in backing Fifita and this group over a Utah team with serious questions and significant injury concerns. Bear Down!
NFL Shocker Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 12, 2023 )
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Bet: Minnesota Vikings +3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Josh Dobbs did a great job of ad libbing coming off the bench in place of an injured Jaren Hall last week, who was replacing an injured Kirk Cousins. He single-handedly led the Vikings to a 31-28 win over the Atlanta Falcons on the road despite not really knowing the playbook. Dobbs finished 20-of-30 passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 66 yards and a score. Now Dobbs gets a full week of practice to learn the playbook and will be even more effective against the New Orleans Saints this week. The Vikings have a ton of momentum right now, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss to Kansas City. They believe they can make the playoffs at this point, and they traded for Dobbs to try and save their season. What has been most amazing about this 4-0 run is that three of those wins came on the road, and the other was an upset home win over the San Francisco 49ers. This team is legit, yet they aren't getting treated like it as they will be an underdog or PK for a 4th consecutive week here. They are hosting a New Orleans Saints team that is getting too much respect for consecutive victories over the Colts and Bears. Last week's 24-17 win over the Bears wasn't impressive at all. The Saints were actually outgained by 67 yards by the Bears in that contest. They only won by 7 despite being +5 in turnovers. The Saints once again struggled in the red zone, and Derek Carr is one of the worst red zone QB's in the history of the NFL. This Saints defense gets a lot of love because of what they did early in the season against a very soft schedule. They have been leaky on defense the last three weeks, allowing 31 points and 330 yards to the Jaguars, 27 points and 371 yards to the Colts and 17 points and 368 yards to the Bears. The Saints give up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing QB's in the NFL this season, and Dobbs is going to have a lot of success running against their man-to-man scheme. Minnesota averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play. New Orleans averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.1 yards per play on defense to break even. Minnesota has actually been the better team to this point when you factor in strength of schedule. The Saints have played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the NFL, while the Vikings have played the 10th-toughest having already faced the Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers among others. Dennis Allen is 3-14 ATS following a win as a head coach. Allen is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. We give the coaching edge to Kevin O'Connell over Allen in this one as well. He is going to be able to scheme up some things for Dobbs that Allen isn't going to be prepared since there's hardly any tape on him in Minnesota yet. It's not as big of a drop off from Cousins to Dobbs as this line indicates. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
NCAAF Road Warrior Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 11, 2023 )
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Bet: Michigan Wolverines -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This game between Michigan and Penn State is the top game on the board Saturday and one of the defining games for the BIG10 conference standings. So far the line has dropped to 4.5 which is by far the smallest line the Wolverines have faced all season, with the next closest being -17.5 on the road at Nebraska. There are many similarities between the squads responsible for the lower line. Firstly, both teams are ranked at the top of the Nation defensively with Michigan allowing 6.7 points per game and Penn State 12. Secondly, both teams score on average 40 points a game and hover around 400 yards per game. Even their rush/pass yard breakdowns are consistent with each other. Finally, both teams have played relatively soft schedules with Michigan’s toughest game being a 31-7 victory over Rutgers and Penn State losing to Ohio State by a score of 20-12. Penn State’s toughest win was their victory last week against Maryland or earlier in the season over Iowa. The difference is where the edge will come into play in this match-up. Firstly, and most importantly, is the experience levels of both quarterbacks. J.J. McCarthy is in his third year with the Wolverines and his second at the head of the offense. In the two years he has been a starter he has piloted Michigan to a 21-1 record with an impressive win last season over the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes by a score of 45-23 as a 9 point dog. In that game he threw for 263 yards with 3 touchdowns. Also last season, he piloted his team to victory over 10th-ranked Penn State 41-17 covering the 7 point spread in that match. They did lose to TCU in a playoff bowl game 51-45. In the bowl game, McCarthy threw for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns but had 2 picks as well. Drew Allar’s exposure to important games sits at 2. Allar handled business earlier in the season against a 24th-ranked Iowa team but fell flat against Ohio State weeks ago. Against Ohio State he connected on 18 of 42 passes for just 191 yards. Secondly, you can refer to the game these teams played last season against each other. Again, Michigan was just a touchdown favorite and dominated the game winning 41-17. In that game, Michigan took control on the ground rushing for 339 yards with Edwards grabbing 173 yards and Corum netting 166. Penn State was a top rush defense last year as well allowing just 112 yards per game in 2022. Ultimately, the offense of Michigan has been machine-like this season efficiently gathering yards in bunches. Their 55.5% 3rd down conversion percentage points is evidence of that. They are even 7 for 11 on 4th down conversions. Additionally, they are virtually mistake-free with a nation’s best 2.7 penalties per game and were only penalized once last week. The value for or against the Penn State line has swung like a pendulum over the last two weeks. Last week there was great value on Penn State because they had just come off a tough game against Indiana, where Allar struggled, almost losing the game. Then, Penn State destroyed Maryland. That performance helped keep this games' line against Michigan in the single digits. And now for the elephant in the room. Due to off-field controversies there is actually a slim chance that the Wolverines will not be given the opportunity to play in the playoffs this season and/or their coach Jim Harbaugh will be suspended. This possibility will further motivate the Wolverines to demonstrate that they are not only the best team in the BIG10 but the best in the nation. Their two opportunities to do that will be this week against Penn State and in two weeks, at the Big House, against Ohio State. Michigan wins by double digits here, 4.5 is a gift. Due to the off field concerns the line continues to fall.
NFL Game of the Week No Limit Play ( Play released for November 5, 2023 )
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The Bills and Bengals last met up in the AFC Divisional game last season. The Bills entered that game as a 6-point favorite with much talk of the potential meeting between them and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. Joe Burrow and the Bengals destroyed those plans with a dominant performance and decisively beat the Bills 27-10. In the game, Burrow completed his passes 72% of the time and threw for 2 touchdowns. Additionally, Joe Mixon ran for 105 yards and scored a touchdown on the ground. On the flip side, Allen threw for 264 yards but failed to find the end zone and had 1 interception on the day. Additionally, he led all Bills rushers with just 26 yards. Any way you look at it, the win was an impressive one, especially on the road. This year the Bengals will get a chance to duplicate that performance on their home turf. This could easily be seen as a revenge game for the Bills plus emotions could be high because of the Damar Hamelin situation that occurred in the game between these two earlier last season but many of the players have downplayed that idea including Stefon Diggs who stated, “That ship has sailed, Damar is good, had a long off-season to think about it, lots of things have happened since then…”. No matter what they say, you can bet they will come into Cincinnati emotionally charged. This game features good against good. It is going to come down to which team will execute at the higher level. The Bengals will be on their home turf and able to channel the energy from their fans who will, no doubt, be there in droves. Importantly, their number one rusher, Joe Mixon who has 453 yards on the season returned to practice on Thursday and is good to go for Sunday’s game. In the game against Buffalo last year he rushed for 105 yards and is an important factor to open up the passing game. The injuries to the Bills secondary have affected their pass defense in some ways. Tampa Bay’s quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 237 yards last week against the Bills which is 20 yards more than his average and his 4th best game this season. Additionally, he threw for 2 touchdowns. The addition of Rasul Douglas will give them immediate depth but there will be a breaking-in period as well. Like Mayfield, Burrow threw for 240 yards against the Bills last year and should be able to duplicate that effort. The Bills quarterback Josh Allen is coming into this game with a sore shoulder. This will affect his passing somewhat even if he can play through the pain. Importantly, Allen has thrown a pick in 4 games straight and the Bengals D pulled in 2 last week against the 49ers. Additionally, the Bengals are averaging 1.5 interceptions from their defense a game. Costly turnovers could very well be the difference in this tough battle. Two of the three Bills’ losses were on the road against weaker opponents. This will be the Bills toughest road test yet. Couple that with injuries on their side of the ball and you can see why Cincy has the edge in this one. Cincy keeps the Momentum on their side in the AFC and wins this game on Sunday Night.
NCAAF Revenge Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 4, 2023 )
LSU vs. Alabama
Bet: Alabama -3/-105 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
LSU has built up a ton of momentum heading into this matchup against Alabama, one that may determine the SEC West. The team has been explosive on offense behind the third choice to win the Heisman Trophy in Daniels, but the defense continues to be a disaster. In LSU's two losses this season, the team allowed more than 40 points to Florida State and Ole Miss. The team also allowed more than 30 to Arkansas and Missouri. The defense is an eyesore and has been gashed by any team with a pulse on that side of the ball. There is no D in Louisiana State. The offense might be a blast, but the defense tackles like opponents are covered in oil. Now, the team faces Alabama, a team that we had questions for early in the season, but have quietly turned it around on offense as Jalen Milroe continues to grow into his role as the starting quarterback of the Crimson Tide. Alabama's run game continues to be a concern, the unit is averaging fewer than four yards per carry and is 126th in sacks allowed, but the team has proven to be dangerous in the passing game, top 10 in yards per pass attempt, and explosive passing offense. Milroe has been excellent in terms of finding the likes of Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton downfield. Milroe has completed 60% of his passes that have traveled more than 20 yards per attempt with 17 big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. So, while LSU's offense is exciting and makes chunk plays, we are incredibly concerned about the team's ability to limit chunk plays through the air. LSU is 119th in explosive pass defense and 98th in sacks. Meanwhile, Alabama grades out as the best coverage unit in college football this season. While Alabama got beat deep against Texas, the team has shut down the likes of Ole Miss, who bolster a potent passing game as well. Further, Alabama is far ahead of the Tigers in other key metrics including special teams grading and tackling. Alabama is fifth in special teams grading while LSU is 87th, a hidden edge that could determine the game with a spread this close. As we continue to harp on the difference between the two defenses, LSU is 47th in tackling this season while Alabama is seventh. The Crimson Tide are still prone to giving up chunk plays, bottom half of the country in limiting explosive plays, but the team has been nails on a down-to-down basis, ranking top 10 in success rate and 13th in points per drive. After being skeptical of the Alabama passing game early on, this unit has improved quite a bit against strong defenses like Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee, hitting timely deep shots at a high clip. Meanwhile, LSU's defense will be the worst on the field by a wide margin. It’s not like Alabama does the whole revenge thing, it’s almost like the program is above that sort of thing but yeah, after how last year’s loss to LSU went down the defense is going to take this game personally. We make this game Alabama -5.5 and will lay the field goal with the better defense at home to get revenge after last year`s dramatic loss.
NCAAF Favorite Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for October 28, 2023 )
Duke vs. Louisville
Bet: Louisville -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We believe it will end up being diamonds that's created by Louisville in this post-bye spot, whether Leonard plays or not for Duke. If he does, there is little chance he's near 100%, and if he doesn't it means Henry Belin IV gets to make his first career road start against a rested and talented defense. Definitely a situation we are looking to fade almost always. In fact, Belin IV has only made one career start to begin with – at home vs NC State a few weeks back – and while Duke did win that game 24-3, it was a home game for the Blue Devils and Belin IV still only went 4-for-12 passing for 107 yards. Duke isn't going to go into Louisville this week and find success being one-dimensional on offense. The Cardinals have scored at least 33 points in every one of their three home games this year, and that includes scoring 33 on Notre Dame and 56 on a surging Boston College program. Louisville HC Jeff Brohm was brought to his Alma mater to bring explosiveness back to this offense, and even against that stout Duke defense, we expect the Cardinals to threaten 30+ points again here as long as they protect the football. Rust concerns off the bye just aren't really there given that the Cardinals are coming off their first loss and likely got after it a bit during all those practices, and with a backup QB who's lucky to complete passes at this level, there is just little chance that the Blue Devils offense does enough to keep up. Lay it with Louisville in this spot loaded with positives for them.
NFL Teaser Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for October 26, 2023 )
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Bet: 6.5 points teaser: Buffalo Bills -2 and Cincinnati Bengals +10/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The spread has jumped from 7.5 up to 8.5 as of Monday night, indicating some sharp money on the Bills. Buffalo has too much talent to continue to play as poorly as they have over the past two weeks. The Bills won three straight games from Week 2 to 4 by at least 28 or more points over each opponent. Tampa Bay will have a hard time keeping up in this game. Tampa's offense is only 27th in scoring and 29th in rushing offense. Buffalo's offense is 3rd in scoring and will easily cover this spread. The Buccaneers pass defense ranks 27th in the league allowing 246.7 yards per game. Allen will have the bounce-back game he needs against this weak secondary, utilizing Diggs and Davis as they continue to find the end zone. There is also a chance Baker Mayfield cannot play because of his knee, in which case Kyle Trask will be asked to keep up with the Buffalo offense. Buffalo's season truly is a roller coaster, and this is a great time to buy low as Buffalo will win this game by double digits.
What a game we have on Sunday featuring the Cincinnati Bengals paying a visit to the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers started the season 5-0 but have now lost back-to-back games against teams they should’ve beaten. The Bengals have had a polar opposite start to the season, dropping the first two games before winning three of their last four. To make things more interesting for the 49ers, starting quarterback Brock Purdy has been placed on concussion protocol this week and is expected to miss this one. The 49ers sound like they are in trouble with Sam Darnold possibly starting and star wide receiver Deebo Samuel missing another week due to injury. San Francisco’s offense was averaging over 30 points per game on the season but in the last two games they haven’t even been able to score 20. We expect the 49ers offense to continue struggling this week against this sturdy Cincinnati team. The Bengals are coming off back-to-back wins and their defense is allowing less than 22 points per game this season. After seeing what Kirk Cousins did to the 49ers defense, we are expecting a big game from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday. They should be able to exploit the 49ers secondary and if the Bengals offensive line can block for Burrow it could be a long night for San Fran. We are taking the Bengals to cover the spread on the road and wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off the road upset as well.
NFL Invincible Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for October 16, 2023 )
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Two words: Buy Low. The Cowboys could not possibly have looked worse against the 49ers. Dak Prescott reverted back to his old self with multiple interceptions, Tony Pollard lost a fumble, the defense couldn’t muster any stops to speak of, and in a revenge spot that was supported by the market, the Cowboys got housed. There’s no way around it. There wasn’t a single, solitary bright spot from last week. But that’s the beauty of the NFL. That was last week, and it’s onto Week 6. One of the best pieces of advice we can give for betting the NFL is that in most cases, treat like it’s a week-to-week league. In other words, don’t assume that just because something happened last week it will happen the next. That’s not how it works, most of the time, when you’re dealing with pro athletes. Some teams are flat out bad. The Cowboys aren’t. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for them. Unlike the 49ers, the Chargers are soft in the secondary. They have a decent pass rush on paper, but their 16 sacks this season are inflated by Khalil Mack’s six-sack game against his former team the Las Vegas Raiders. This is the same Chargers team that didn’t score in the second half against the lowly Raiders, that scraped by a bad Vikings team that’s probably going to be selling at the trade deadline, and that lost to a bad Titans team. Don’t be fooled. The Cowboys may not be in the same weight class as San Francisco, but that’s a world away from what this Chargers team is. Add in that it’s a primetime game where Brandon Staley’s decisions will be magnified? Yes, we will take the Cowboys happily inside a field goal please.
NFL Shocker Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for October 15, 2023 )
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Bet: Houston Texans ML/+115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We have an interesting matchup on Sunday between the Texans and the Saints in Houston. The Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Falcons in which they lost on a game-winning field goal in the dying seconds. Not much was expected this season from the Texans but rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has been showing up and playing like a vet. His most impressive stat this season is that he has thrown 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. He takes very good care of the football and that is something we don’t typically see from rookie quarterbacks. And it isn’t like he isn’t throwing it much either, as the Texans offense ranks 2nd in the league in most passing yards per game. He will need to bring his A-game this Sunday as the Saints have one of the best defenses in the NFL and allow just 15 points per game. New Orleans just shut out the Patriots, but we like Stroud’s chances of breaking down this Saints pass defense. Fresh from their 34-0 blowout win over the Patriots, we can see the Saints coming into this one a little sluggish. Teams who are coming off a huge blowout win the week before have been known to underperform in their next game. This Saints team is built to win low-scoring games and relies on its defense to keep them in most games. They only average 19 points per game and that will not fly this week in Houston. We expect the Texans to score on them early and force them to play a different style of game than they are used to. We love getting the Texans as a home underdog in this spot and we are more than happy to take them to win this outright.
NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for October 14, 2023 )
Miami Hurricanes vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Bet: North Carolina Tar Heels -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Alright, let’s get this out of the way right out of the gates. Miami at North Carolina was supposed to be one of the most meaningful ACC games of the season, as two top teams are trying to dethrone the traditional powers of Clemson and Florida State. But Miami ruined that last week when we learned that they cannot coach their way out of a paper bag. We are sure you are done hearing about it by this point, as their end-game management was a blunder of epic proportions, failing to take a knee with 30 seconds left and the opponent out of timeouts. When they ran a play anyway (presumably to get their running back over the mystical 100-yd mark), they deserved to fumble, and they deserved to get scored on in 22 seconds to lose. No question. But let’s also remember that Miami was a 20-point home favorite, and while the final kneel-down-that-wasn’t took all the attention, there were a ton of blunders that led to the game being close in the first place. Miami was tons better than Georgia Tech, and they completely dominated the box score, but it didn’t matter. Now, heading to North Carolina, we do not trust this Miami team for a second, and more than that, we do not trust this coaching staff to put their athletes in a position to succeed. Miami has a great defense with a ton of really fast athletes that are very disruptive to opponents. They rank #1 in the country against the rush, and they are a top 50 team against the pass. Then again, they had a game against Texas A&M, and otherwise they are untested. UNC is an entirely different opponent for the Canes. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, have dominated every opponent on the schedule except (as always) Appalachian State. Drake May is a great quarterback in a year filled with great quarterbacks, and last week he threw for 442 yards and 3 scores against a Syracuse team that plays good defense. We love the Tar Heels to keep it rolling here. The Tar Heel defense is far from perfect, but this coaching staff is not going to let Tyler Van Dyke succeed. He threw 3 picks last week and looked ugly doing so, and some of them were—once again—coaching blunders, like calling slow-developing pass plays deep in the red zone that end up calling for throws over the middle of the field into traffic. Gross. Miami deserves better, especially with the athletes and talent that they have. Maybe they will figure it out at some point, but it`s not going to be against the Tar Heels. One thing that separates North Carolina this year from their teams of the recent past is their ability to play defense. QB Mayes is a future top draft pick in the NFL and will produce points for the Heels. This year, however, the defense has held up its end of the bargain making Carolina a much more challenging team to play. Miami makes far too many mental mistakes, raking 117th in penalties per game, in a game that features two teams that are otherwise close in most categories. The Heels have shined against the spread this year as well, covering in four of five opportunities this year with the only non-cover coming against App State. We like Mayes to once again shine in the spotlight of a national television game on Saturday night. Take North Carolina as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
Bet Refund Guaranteed NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for October 9, 2023 )
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Bet: Green Bay Packers ML/+100 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
There’s just nothing here for us with the Raiders this season. They are dreadful. Josh McDaniels is the worst coach in the NFL and the Raiders rely almost exclusively on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. Their defense, with yet another reach in the Top 5 of Tyree Wilson — is a shiv. They have lost 3 games in a row, so this is going the wrong way and fast. Yes, they’re going to get Jimmy Garoppolo back. But we all saw him against the Steelers, right? Two of his 3 interceptions felt like they were intended for the defense. He is currently on pace to throw 26 picks this season. All that talk about how Jimmy G is such a winner? More like he played for the best offensive coaching staff in the NFL in Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. The only quarterback in the NFL they can’t scheme to a starting role is apparently Trey Lance. The Raiders are flat out a sinking ship, kept from the bottom of the ocean floor only by 3 players in Adams, Jacobs and defensive end Maxx Crosby. The Packers, meanwhile, are getting healthy with 10 days between games. Aaron Jones won’t be on a pitch count this week. Wideout Christian Watson returned last week and immediately caught a touchdown. Two-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins returned to practice this week, as did stud defensive back Jaire Alexander. If these 2 suit up then it could be a really, really long night for the Raiders. This is a spot in which we expect Green Bay’s depth and massive coaching advantage to show through. This is playable for us up to -3, and at -1 we think we’re getting a massive discount. The Packers have the better team right now and it’s tough to have faith in the Raiders given their problems on both sides of the ball. Take Green Bay on the road in this contest.
NCAAF Shocker Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play
( Play released for October 7, 2023 )
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Bet: Texas Longhorns -6/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Red River Rivalry is always one of the biggest games on the college football calendar, and this year the installment features the clear top 2 teams in the Big 12 this season. Prior to the season we were all in on Texas to win the conference, and this game likely represents the biggest challenge to what should otherwise be a fairly routine path to the Big 12 title game for the Longhorns. What makes Texas such an appealing side in this matchup is the clear balance and depth on both sides of the ball that this team has. Steve Sarkisian’s offense is as efficient as ever, with elite talent at the skill positions and a confident quarterback in Quinn Ewers who is the midst of his best stretch under center in his collegiate career. Texas is sitting at 15th in EPA per pass and 19th in EPA margin while also ranking at 16th in points per quality possession. Even with Texas’ season-long success on paper, it’s telling that the Longhorns left points on the board against Alabama and Kansas, two games that they won in convincing fashion. Furthermore, this defense is terrific, sitting at 5th in passing success rate, 7th in rush success rate, 7th in net points per drive and 15th in early downs EPA. Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma’s passing game struggled at times against SMU and Cincinnati, so we are expecting some issues in this matchup. The Texas front seven is a havoc machine and we find it hard to believe that Oklahoma’s middling running game will get going against this stout defensive front. Not only is this a play on Texas, but this is another slight fade of Oklahoma, who looked impressive against Arkansas State and Tulsa this season, but seriously struggled at times en route to a fraudulent cover by the hook against SMU. The Sooners also failed to cover against Cincinnati, despite winning the turnover battle. This is also the first time that the Sooners will face a legitimate quarterback and offensive line this season against a Longhorns offense that is humming of late. Oklahoma also has serious offensive line concerns, as the Sooners haven’t been great in pass-blocking despite playing a barely-top 100 strength of schedule to this point. Texas has the better offense while the Longhorns defense is certainly the best unit the Sooners will face this season. It’s hard for us to find a path where Oklahoma keeps this within 6 points over the course of 60 minutes, so we are sticking with our belief in Texas in another high-profile game.
Bet Refund Guaranteed NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for October 1st, 2023 )
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Bet: Buffalo Bills -2.5/-120 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
We have a huge game in Week 4 between the Miami Dolphins visiting the Buffalo Bills — Tua Tagovailoa facing off against Josh Allen. The Dolphins have been nearly unstoppable on offense, putting up video game-like numbers. They are ranked #1 in rushing yards per game, averaging 188 yards, and #1 in passing yards per game (363). That’s an insane 551 total yards per game average, but if anyone can back them down to earth it’s the Bills’ defense. Buffalo ranks 2nd-best in total yards allowed per game. The Bills have already sacked the quarterback 12 times this season and have recorded 7 interceptions. They may be one of the few teams that can cause problems for the Dolphins’ offense. Let’s not forget that Tagovailoa is also 1-4 in his career against the Bills since entering the league. We can talk about how great the Dolphins’ offense is all day, but their defense is their problem. They rank 10th worst in total yards per game allowed and the way Allen and the Bills play, the Fins are trouble this weekend on their weaker side of the ball. With Gabriel Davis on one side and Stefon Diggs on the other, the Dolphins’ cornerbacks will be under pressure all game. Both receivers could have big games as the Dolphins’ pass defense is one of their weaknesses at the moment. Miami had relatively easy opponents to start the season in the first 3 games, so this will be its real first test. We are backing the Bills with confidence. Buffalo is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against Miami. Miami is 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played in week 4.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play
( Play released for September 30, 2023 )
Washington vs. Arizona
Bet: Washington -18.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Washington Huskies may very well be the best team in all of college football this season. They clearly aren't afraid to run it up as they beat Boise State 56-19, Tulsa 43-10, Michigan State 41-7 and California 59-32. They have arguably the best offense (49.8 PPG) in the country right alongside the likes of Oregon and USC within the Pac-12. But they have a legit defense that is allowing just 17.0 PPG. Arizona takes a big step up in competition here after facing Northern Arizona, UTEP, Stanford and Mississippi State thus far. In their 21-20 win at Stanford last week as 13-point favorites, they lost star QB Jayden De Laura to a calf injury, and he is questionable to play this week. We don't give the Wildcats much of a chance to hang in this game even with De Laura, but it would just be an added bonus for us if he does not suit up. Washington has a bye on deck next week so they should be fully focused and avoid a letdown here. Kalen DeBoer is 9-1 ATS off a win by 21 points or more as a head coach. He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. The Huskies have too many weapons in the passing game, and Penix Jr. is putting together a special season, and may very well win the Heisman if he keeps this pace. The Huskies have three excellent receivers to pair with Penix Jr. and Arizona does not have a single interception all season. Sure, the Huskies are on the road, but that didn't bother them when the went into Michigan State and demolished the Spartans 41-7. Arizona was going to struggle here no matter what, but with their top quarterback and running back banged up or even out, it will be even worse. Take Washington to win and cover on the road.
Bet Refund Guaranteed NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for September 24, 2023 )
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Bet: Cleveland Browns -3/-115 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
We have a matchup between a pair of 1-1 teams as the Tennessee Titans head to Cleveland to take on the Browns in this Week 3 matchup. The Browns fell to the Steelers last Monday but the worst news was star running back Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury during the game. He is a huge part of this Browns offense and is one of the best running backs in the league, and his impact on the field will be missed. The Browns are a run-first team and they just signed Kareem Hunt to replace Chubb, who should be productive alongside Jerome Ford, who put in a great performance against Pittsburgh. Deshaun Watson will be expected to pick up the slack and he has weapons like Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku at his disposal. The good news for the Browns is that the Titans have allowed over 300 passing yards in back-to-back weeks to start the season. They are ranked 5th-worst in passing yards allowed per game so this will be Watson’s chance to put them to the sword. On the other side, we have a Titans offense that tends to struggle at times with Ryan Tannehill under center. He already has 3 interceptions through 2 games and his offensive line isn’t helping him out, having already given up 8 sacks. The Browns’ defense has elite playmakers who can get to Tannehill, with Myles Garrett likely chasing him down all game long. We are confidently backing the Browns to get back on track with a win this week and cover the 3-point spread.
NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed NFL No Limit Play
( Play released for September 23, 2023 )
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
Bet: Ohio State -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Push
The No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes head to South Bend next week for a primetime matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 4 of the college football season. Ohio State is undefeated through their first three games and ranked number six in the nation following a 53 point blowout victory of Western Kentucky. Offensively Ohio State has gotten whatever they want this season averaging more than 40 points per game on 474.7 yards. The Ohio State defense has been just as dominant giving up 223.7 yards per game as the Buckeyes have allowed only 20 points through three outings. Kyle McCord leads the Ohio State offense this season with 815 yards and six scores on 53 completions. TreVeyon Henderson is the top ball carrier with 191 yards and four touchdowns on 30 carries. Chip Trayanum is second on the team with 133 yards and one score on 19 carries, while Miyan Williams has added 73 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. Marvin Harrison Jr. remains one of the top receivers in the country with 304 yards and three touchdowns on 14 catches through three games. Notre Dame (4-0) comes into the week with wins over Navy, Tennessee State, NC State, and Central Michigan. They started off the season with a clean game against Navy, but have had some issues with penalties at home. This is a top ten matchup with huge College Football Playoff implications. Both teams come in undefeated looking to continue their trend in week four. Ohio State is simply the better team in this matchup, they boasts arguably the single-greatest rotation of overall skill talent in the nation, especially at wide receiver thanks to NFL-ready threats like Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka (3 TD catches each), combined with a strong rushing attack posting 5.2 ypc led by TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, who have 6 of OSU's 7 rushing scores, and it will show from the opening kickoff. The Buckeyes defense has been doing incredibly well, allowing 6.7 points on 223.7 total yards per game. The defense has been disruptive, with five sacks, three interceptions (one pick-six), 12 pass deflections, four forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. With some dominant players on the defensive line, it will be tough to move the ball against them. Take Ohio State this week as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year to get the win and cover as they remain undefeated. Final Score Prediction, Ohio State Buckeyes win and cover 42-31.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
We have a rematch of last season’s divisional-round playoff game here as the Chiefs battle the Jaguars. The Chiefs are coming into the game after being shocked by the Lions on Thursday Night Football in a 21-20 loss. Patrick Mahomes was doing all he could to win the game but he wasn’t getting much help from his receivers. They had a total of 8 dropped passes in crucial moments and could not execute when they needed to. Mahomes and the Chiefs will come into this game with an extra 3 days of preparation and that should benefit them greatly in this assignment against the Jaguars. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in the league and he should have his team prepared to beat the Jaguars once again. Another reason why we are taking the Chiefs -3 and fading the Jaguars is that this Jacksonville team is still young and we are not completely sold on them being ready to break out just yet. They are a team that still makes mistakes and we expect that to come to the surface with all the pressure that Kansas City puts them under. The Chiefs beat the Jags in the playoffs with an injured Mahomes and this time around they will have their star QB at full health. Mahomes should have his offense and his receivers ready for this game and we are expecting them to show up for him, especially after what happened in their opening game. We are taking the Chiefs to win this game and cover the 3-point spread.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Baltimore Ravens +3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This is a game that we have been looking to bet since the offseason, and we are not deterred by the fact that the market is high on the Bengals this week. For starters, we’ve got a rare instance of double revenge as a bit of additional motivation with the Ravens, including a playoff loss in Cincinnati last January where the Ravens were in prime position to win midway through the 4th quarter. That effort was with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, so the upgrade in this game with a fully healthy Lamar Jackson is worth at least a touchdown. Furthermore, the Bengals struggled mightily in Week 1 and recent history has shown us that these early season struggles with Joe Burrow at quarterback typically extend until at least Week 3. The Cincinnati rust on offense might even be exacerbated this week given that Burrow is still working his way back into game shape following a calf injury suffered in training camp. Burrow is terrific, but he did have some of his worst games of the year last year against defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald and they’ve consistently had success in slowing down this Cincinnati offense (as long as all of their cornerbacks and safeties aren’t injured). This is a rare instance where the market is low on the Ravens in this spot, despite the fact that Baltimore looked much better than Cincinnati a week ago, winning by double digits while the Bengals were routed by the Browns. This is still a coaching mismatch in our view, and now we’ve got John Harbaugh catching more than a field goal, a spot where he has been excellent from a historical perspective in games against AFC North opponents. Even though the Ravens have already suffered some major injuries, we still can’t back Cincinnati at over a field goal. Let’s back Jackson, Harbaugh and company in a massive early-season tilt.
Bet Refund Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Plays ( Plays released for September 16, 2023 )
Tennessee vs. Florida
Bet: Florida +6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Dating back to 1976, Tennessee has never been favored by more than a single point at Florida. Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2001. This is simply too many points for the Florida Gators to be getting at home in a series they have absolutely dominated. This is Year 2 for Billy Napier, who did a great job at Louisiana. The Gators actually outgained Utah 346 to 270 for the game and easily could have won it in a misleading 24-11 defeat. The Gators bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese State last week. Tennessee lost a ton of talent on offense last year and Hendon Hooker is irreplaceable at quarterback. Joe Milton just isn't the same accurate passer that Hooker was, and he needs to be accurate to run this offense. Last week, Tennessee only beat Austin Peay 30-13 as a 49-point favorite, failing to cover that number by 32 points. That's an alarming result. After failing to live up to expectations at Wisconsin, we actually like what we`ve seen from Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida. He is in a much more favorable system here to his skill set. Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes for 526 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. He handled himself very well against that stout Utah defense in the opener. We like the fact that Florida has been battle-tested already while Tennessee played two cupcakes in rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay. We think we see Milton's deficiencies exploited by this Florida defense this week. If Tennessee manages to win this game, it's not going to be by more than one score. This one should go right down to the wire, and we are getting too many points with the home team here. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS overt he last five seasons. Billy Napier went 5-0 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida last year, and four of those games came against ranked teams. Bet Florida Saturday.
TCU vs. Houston
Bet: TCU -7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This should be an interesting chess match between two quality coaches in Dykes and Holgorsen on Saturday night. The two coaches will soon get to lock horns annually in the very near future with Houston joining the Big 12 next season. On Saturday night, we like TCU to come out on top against what is a vastly inferior Houston secondary. While Rice has grown in respectability, they do not possess nearly the firepower or talent of TCU and were able to wrack up over 450 yards of total offense including over 400 through the air. While both teams struggled defensively last season and into this season, the TCU numbers were put up against vastly superior opponents as compared with the Cougars' schedule. Expect the Horned Frogs' passing attack to dominate this game against a Houston secondary that appears to be once again amongst the worst in the country. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars will be able to score against TCU's defense but don't have the depth of talent that Colorado possesses so we don't foresee them being able to match TCU score-for-score. We expect a highly entertaining, high-scoring game but one in which the overall talent level of TCU shines through much more brightly.
UMass vs. Eastern Michigan
Bet: UMass +9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The UMass Minutemen opened the season with a 41-30 upset win at New Mexico State to show how improved they are this season. Then they got blasted at Auburn and were competitive in a 28-41 loss to Miami Ohio. Now they get to take a big step down in class here against Eastern Michigan, and we expect them to stay within one score here if they don't pull off the upset. Eastern Michigan looks brutal this season. They only beat Howard 33-23 as a 19-point favorite and were actually outgained by 113 yards in that win. They gave up 398 yards and were held to 285 yards. Then last week they lost 25-6 to Minnesota as 18.5-point dogs and should have lost by more. They were outgained by 261 yards by the Golden Gophers and were held to just 152 total yards on offense. UMass wants revenge from a 7-point loss at Eastern Michigan last year. We think UMass is improved this season, while Eastern Michigan clearly is taking a step back. We like EMU in the role of the underdog, but the Eagles are terrible in the roll of the favorite under head coach Chris Creighton. Eastern Michigan is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite. The Eagles are 7-22 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UMass) a bad team last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1992. Bet UMass Saturday.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed NFL No Limit Play
( Play released for September 16, 2023 )
LSU vs. Mississippi State
Bet: LSU -9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Although LSU lost to Florida State in the opener, this team still has a lot to play for and that urgency should shine on Saturday. On paper, the Tigers are simply the better team in terms of roster talent and that should shine in the second half. The margin for error is small after the defeat in Orlando to the 'Noles, meaning Kelly's team should be locked in and motivated the rest of the year. The way these teams match up on paper is a big mismatch. It begins with an LSU defense that's tough against the run facing Mississippi State's rush-heavy offensive approach. Passing on the Tigers is a much easier task, but the Bulldogs simply don`t have the personnel or playbook to make that happen. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has accounted for 708 of LSU's 1,081 total yards this season and can wreak havoc against a Mississippi State defense that allowed 431 total yards (six yards a play) to Arizona last week. The Bulldogs are especially vulnerable against the pass (340 yards allowed to the Wildcats), which bodes well for Daniels and a deep group of playmakers. Brian Thomas Jr. (13 catches) and Malik Nabers (11) pace the receiving corps, but Kyren Lacy (six), Aaron Anderson (two) and Chris Hilton Jr. (two) will see plenty of targets. On the other side, Mississippi State has a suspect secondary. They also got gashed by Arizona's QB on the ground last week, giving up 44 yards and a score on eight carries. LSU's Jayden Daniels has dynamic pass catchers to work with along with dangerous mobility. The Tigers shouldn't have any issues passing the ball all day long. LSU has dominated the all-time series against Mississippi State with a 77-36-3 record. The Tigers have defeated the Bulldogs in consecutive seasons, including a 31-16 home victory in 2022. LSU head coach Brian Kelly has his team’s attention since their season opening loss and will come out strong here. Just like last year, it'll be a double-digit win for LSU. Geaux for the Tigers against the spread as they continue their revenge tour for the Week 1 loss. Take the Tigers to win and cover as our NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NO Plays released for September 15, 2023
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -6/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Push
The Eagles manhandled the Vikings last year on their way to a 24-7 win in week two. They harassed Cousins all night and forced him into tough throws. Cousins threw three interceptions in that game and star wideout Jefferson was held to 48 yards receiving on six catches. The most concerning thing about the rematch this year is the status of Vikings' center Bradbury. Bradbury played just seven snaps in week one and his loss was evident as Cousins had two fumbles due to poor snap exchanges. Now, the Vikings could be again without Bradbury going up against arguably the best defensive front in the NFL. If Bradbury is unable to go, the Vikings push up the middle and could once again force Cousins into some difficult throws and create more turnovers. Coming off a three-turnover game in the loss to the Bucs, the Vikings can ill afford to lose the turnover battle on the road in Philadelphia. On the defensive end, the Vikings were decent against the Bucs but did allow Mayfield some critical runs late in the game to set up the Bucs' winning field goal. Their inability to stop Mayfield on the scramble does not bode well given the elusiveness of Hurts. Hurts played conservatively in New England and did seem to have difficulty with New England's team speed, particularly with the Patriots use of hybrid safeties instead of linebackers. The Vikings aren't as equipped as New England to offer the Eagles those kinds of looks. We expect Hurts to have a stronger game on the ground and for the Eagles WR duo of Smith and Brown to have more success down the field.
NO Plays released for September 13, 2023
NO Plays released for September 12, 2023
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Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Bet: New York Jets ML/+110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This is going to be a transitional year for the Bills. They will have a new voice in the defensive room and have committed to keeping quarterback Allen out of harm's way. The Bills have also gone two straight seasons with a Super Bowl or Bust mentality only to fall short each season. The Jets meanwhile come into this matchup riding high with the acquisition of Rodgers and several other key pieces to an offense that held the team back in 2022. Rodgers may end up leveling off as the year progresses given his age and the potential hits he may take throughout the year. But, in the opener, the veteran quarterback will be fresh and ready to go against a Bills team that doesn't possess a dominant pass rush. We expect that Rodgers will have time in the pocket and that will not bode well for the Bills' defense. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have the kind of dynamic defense that can cause Allen problems. They have Gardner at cornerback that can be isolated on Diggs and, while he won't stop him, he can limit Diggs' numbers. That will allow the Jets to swing coverage over to Davis' side. Allen will eventually have to establish a reliable third receiver but that may take time. In front of a packed house of hungry Jets fans, Rodgers and company will pick up a season-opening win against the Bills and announce that the AFC East is up for grabs in 2023.
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Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bet: Miami Marlins ML/+129 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Miami Marlins have come up clutch here down the stretch to try and make the playoffs. They have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in seven of those eight games. They have four wins as underdogs during this stretch. The Milwaukee Brewers return home from a 6-game road trip that concluded against the New York Yankees on Sunday. This feels like a bit of a letdown spot for them. The Brewers have huge righty/lefty splits this season, hitting just .220 and scoring 3.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters. Lefty Jesus Luzardo has been dynamite of late for the Marlins. He is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.611 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 18 innings with 21 K's. Those three starts have come against the Dodgers, Padres and Rays, so the competition has been stiff as well. Bet the Marlins Monday.
Bet Refund Guaranteed NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for September 10, 2023 )
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
In Week 1 we will back this Divisional Underdog which falls into a very profitable system dating back several years. In the last eight years if you had blindly bet Divisional Dogs in Wk #1, you would have produced a 31-13-2 ATS record or 70.4% returns. Also, Divisional Road dogs of +6.5 points or less are on an 18-7-1 ATS streak since 2013. The Raiders have won 6 straight in this rivalry and don’t be surprised if they make it 7 in a row after Sunday. Las Vegas has a new QB in Jimmy Garoppolo after Derek Carr departed for New Orlean. Jimmy G is an upgrade considering Carr who is coming off a down year with a 60.8 completion % (lowest since 2014) and 24 TD’s with 14 INT’s. For all the knocks on Garoppolo he is 40-17 SU as a regular season starter in his career. He won’t have to carry the load either with RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams on the roster. Jacobs led the league in rushing yards a year ago and Adams caught 14 TD’s, most in the league. Denver brought in head coach Sean Payton to try and revive this team and namely QB Russell Wilson. Wilson struggled last season with a 38.7QBR and 16 TD’s to 11 INT’s, some of his worst numbers since coming to the NFL. The Broncos were 21st in rushing yards per game, last in scoring at 16.9PPG, 23rd in Yards Per Play (5.1) and 19th in passing yards per game. Denver certainly holds an advantage defensively in this match up, but we do expect Las Vegas to be better on that side of the football this season. In the two meetings last year the Raiders outgained the Broncos 792 total yards to 619 and they’ve won 3 straight in the series as an Underdog.
GAME OF THE YEAR Bet Refund Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Play ( Play released for September 9, 2023 )
Ole Miss vs. Tulane
Bet: Ole Miss -7/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, we like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. We also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. We do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak we mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins. Take Ole Miss as our GAME OF THE YEAR Bet Refund Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Play.
NO Plays released for September 8, 2023
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Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Detroit Lions +4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
What a great way to start the NFL season with a matchup between two great offenses. For Thursday’s NFL kickoff, we are taking the Lions with the points. Dan Campbell has done an excellent job in transforming the Lions into a winning team. Detroit has an explosive offense with Jared Goff at quarterback and Amon-Ra St. Brown at receiver. They should be able to exploit the Chiefs’ vulnerable defense, which last season ranked 22nd in pass defense. Kansas City looks set to struggle in that area once again and could be in trouble on Thursday night, and we are expecting Jared Goff to have no trouble moving the ball down the field throughout the game. And this is all before mentioning new running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who looks a red-hot prospect coming out of the draft and is another major weapon in Goff’s arsenal. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and we all know what a special talent he is. Mahomes and Travis Kelce are the best quarterback-tight end duo in the NFL. However, the Chiefs’ defense will likely need Mahomes to be on his A-game and help them out if they are to keep up with the Lions’ level of scoring that we are expecting. Don’t be shocked if the defending champs are playing catch-up against Detroit — Super Bowl hangovers are a thing and we are expecting one here. Overall we are predicting this to be a close game and for the Lions to at least cover the spread. Dan Campbell should have his team ready and fired up for this game, and this is a great opportunity for Detroit to try and show off their own Super Bowl credentials. Take the Lions to cover the spread and don’t be surprised if they win outright.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Bet: Under 9/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres wrap up their 3-game series this afternoon in a rubber match after the Padres evened the series with an 8-0 win last night. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit his second home run of the series and Michael Lorenzen struggled through another start for the Phillies since tossing a no-hitter on August 9. Philadelphia has now lost 4 of their last 6 games, but fortunately still hold a 4.5-game lead atop the NL Wild Card standings. San Diego on the other hand is 8 games under .500 and their playoff chances are all but shot. That doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t out to compete however, as the Padres have won 4 of their last 5 games ahead of tonight’s contest. To end the series, we’re rewarded with a marquee pitcher’s duel between Zack Wheeler and Michael Wacha. Wheeler owns a 3.62 ERA across 27 starts but has had a much stronger second half to the season. Over his last 8 starts, Wheeler is pitching to a 2.73 ERA and 7 of those have come as quality outings. Wacha has been equally as effective and owns a 2.85 ERA over 19 outings, and a 1.65 ERA since the beginning of May, covering 14 starts. Obviously, both of these lineups pose a threat at the plate, and the Padres scored 15 runs over the first 2 games. The Phillies teed off against Rich Hill in game 1, but were held to just 3 hits last night, and were unable to push across any runs despite 7 walks. Philadelphia will also be without the services of Trea Turner for a second straight night after being placed on paternity leave. This is the best pitching matchup of the series, and the Phillies are shorthanded without Turner. We are backing a low scoring affair and taking the under.
NO Plays released for September 5, 2023
NO Plays released for September 4, 2023
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LSU Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles
Bet: Florida State Seminoles ML/+108 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Of all the Week 1 contests, this matchup is one that many college football fans are looking forward to the most, and for good reason. Both of these teams are expected to be serious contenders in the College Football Playoff race and each side has a quarterback that is good enough to compete for the Heisman Trophy come December. Travis will have a strong offensive line in front of him, plus the new additions of Keon Coleman and tight end Jaheim Bell that will join an already excellent pass-catching group headlined by Johnny Wilson. The ‘Noles were a strong defensive unit a season ago as well, yielding just 21.8 points per game and boasting NFL-level talent led by Jared Verse. The matchup between the two defenses is where Florida State will hold the most significant advantage, as LSU lost 7 of its top 11 tacklers from last season. Harold Perkins is a superstar and possibly the best defensive player in college football, but the rest of the Tigers defense is a question mark and they’ll need time to gel with each other in the early going. Despite the neutral location, this game is still in Orlando and we expect the crowd to be overwhelming populated with Florida State fans, much like the Superdome was for LSU for last season’s meeting. The Seminoles are a team that we have been extremely high on since the start of the offseason, so this game represents a proof of concept for our optimism throughout the spring and summer. Travis took a major step forward last season and is now clearly one of the 5 quarterbacks in the country. Given the fact that we would favor Florida State at quarterback, the skill positions and in the trenches on both sides of the ball, it’s hard not to back the Seminoles in this massive tilt. We make this game closer to a pick ’em so we will pass up the 2.5 points here and take Florida State on the money line.
Bet Refund Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Plays ( Plays released for September 2, 2023 )
Texas Tech vs. Wyoming
Bet: Wyoming +14/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Texas Tech is coming off a solid season where it finished 8-5 and made it to a second straight bowl game after missing out for three years. The Red Raiders were fortunate in some regards, however as half of their wins were by four points or less, which included three in overtime, so it easily could have been a reversal. It took 12 years for Texas Tech to be above .500 again in the Big 12, but again, some of that was luck related and the Red Raiders may be getting a little too much credit heading into this season and this opening game line is saying that. Texas Tech does bring a lot back including all 11 starters on offense but the defense remains an issue. Even though they allowed their lowest scoring average in a decade, it was still 29.2 ppg. Wyoming has quietly put together two straight winning seasons and over the last seven seasons, the Cowboys have finished below .500 only once and that was the 2-4 COVID season in 2020. Head coach Craig Bohl has turned the program around and Wyoming should be better this season as it returns 15 starters including 10 from an already strong defense that will match up well in this spot. The offense struggled as it averaged only 21.2 ppg and it needs a better passing attack. Quarterback Andrew Peasley is back and has experience to improve and it is vital. And it does not even have to be great as Wyoming is 11-3 over the last two seasons when it completes 55 percent of more of its passes and that is not a hard bar to attain and it can do so against this Red Raiders defense.
Toledo Rockets vs. Illinois Fighting Illini ( Plays released for September 2, 2023 )
Bet: Toledo +9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season. They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score. So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State. The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent. They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers. They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team. The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season. They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle. We think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game. Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue. Our biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year. Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much. Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Bet Toledo Saturday.
NO Plays released for September 1st, 2023
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NC State vs. Connecticut
Bet: Connecticut +15/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
It was a disaster of a start for Connecticut and first year head coach Jim Mora in his first season in Storrs as it lost its first four FBS games by an average of 33.8 ppg. The Huskies then turned a corner as they defeated a very good Fresno St. team to start a 5-1 run and they became bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. While they lost to Marshall, the added practice time was very beneficial and they bring back 17 starters. The defense has eight coming back on a unit that made dramatic improvements from the previous four seasons. Joe Fagnano on the starting quarterback job over Zion Turner and this is pretty significant. He was a multi-year starter at Maine, where he threw for more than 5,600 yards and he is familiar with the Huskies system as their new offensive coordinator is Nick Charlton, who was the Black Bears head coach from 2019 through 2021. NC State is coming off a disappointing season as it closed 4-5 following a 4-0 start and while it is not a complete rebuild, many key parts have to be replaced. Quarterback was an issue last season but there is help with Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia and reuniting with offensive coordinator Robert Anae so this should be a potent part of the offense but later in the season. The Wolfpack lost three of their top four receivers while the offensive line will be a work in progress, coming in ranked No. 10 out of 14 teams in the ACC. The defense finished No. 20 overall and No. 15 in scoring but six starters have to be replaced. NC State rolled over Connecticut 41-10 last season so there is revenge in play for the Huskies and the 23-point line swing from that game is telling us the story as well. Take Connecticut to cover the spread.
NO Plays released for August 30, 2023
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Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/-125 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
This is a matchup of two struggling ball clubs. The Texas Rangers have lost 9 of their last 11 while the New York Mets have lost 6 of their last 8. The visitors have a significant matchup advantage in this one considering both starting pitchers are lefty, and the Rangers crush lefties. Jose Quintana (3.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) gets the start for the Mets coming off a 5.1 inning outing where he surrendered 5 runs and 9 hits. The lefty’s 4.61 xERA and 4.90 xFIP suggest his most recent start could be the beginning of some overdue regression, and we wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers continue to rise against this Rangers lineup. Texas ranks 1st in the American League with a .281 BA against left-handed pitching this season. The Mets, on the other hand, are towards the bottom coming in at 25th in BA (.235) against lefties. They face lefty Andrew Heaney in this one, who’s been rather inconsistent as a whole but a solid arm at times. Heaney holds a 4.34 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with a 3.00 ERA in 5 starts this month. He struggles in his last two outings, surrendering 14 hits and 6 runs in 8 total innings, but we believe this is a solid get-right spot against a Mets lineup that hasn’t put up more than 3 runs in over a week. With all things considered, give us the Rangers on the money line.
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Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/-135 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Texas Rangers head to Queens for a 3-game set beginning on Monday. The Mets will have quite a bit of influence on the AL West over the next few days as they play Texas and then the Mariners. The Rangers have fallen on hard times lately, losing 9 of their last 10 games. They have fallen out of 1st place (now held by the Mariners), and they are in danger of falling out of a playoff spot if they do not correct their course quickly. They are in as good of a position to win on Monday as they can hope for, and they need to capitalize. The Rangers will send Jon Gray to the mound. He has been stable and reliable on the season as a whole, although he did give up 5 runs in 4 innings in his last start. Prior to that, he had 2 games of 7 innings and a combined 1 run, and we imagine the last outing was an outlier. Some days you just don’t have your good stuff. He will face Tylor Megill, who is really just not very good, and is typical of the Mets’ season — playable, but still well below average. He rarely goes beyond the 5th inning, and he rarely keeps a clean sheet. The Rangers, although struggling on offense, should still be able to snap out of it against Megill. The Mets mustered only 7 runs over the entire weekend against the Angels. If those struggles continue, there will be all the more reason to back the Rangers. We like the Rangers to get back in the win column.
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Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Chicago White Sox ML/-122 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The White Sox have lost four of their last six games. Despite their slump, they are playing well offensively, scoring 14 runs in their last three games. Even though Blackburn has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up six runs in his last three starts. He has struggled against the White Sox, with a 0-3 record in four starts against them. He gave up 14 runs in those starts and with Oakland having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the White Sox in this game. The Athletics have won four of their last five games, but they’ve lost five of their last eight road games. They are also playing well offensively and scored 20 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Clevinger has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up nine runs in his last six starts. He gave up five runs in his last three home starts and will keep Oakland’s offense in check. Go with Chicago to cover the money line.
Bet Refund Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 26, 2023 )
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/-130 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
Since being stretched out into a starting role with the Cubs, Javier Assad has performed very well in Chicago’s rotation. The right-hander has allowed 1, 2, and 2 earned runs across 7.0, 6.0, and 5.1 innings pitched in those respective starts. Assad is not a high K% pitcher, and never really has been, so his location and command of the zone is absolutely crucial. Despite his 10.2% BB% ranking just 24th percentile on the season, Assad has only allowed 5 of the last 73 batters he’s faced to see that 4th ball. If he can continue to limit walks against this Pirates team ranking 2nd in BB% against right-handed pitching, he should be in for another quality start. The Pirates ability to draw walks has helped their lineup score more runs of late, but they are still an inconsistent group dependent on stringing together production with mainly youthful bats. The Cubs bullpen behind Assad ranks 7th in ERA and 9th in WHIP across the last 30 days, and they aren’t overworked as a unit. The Pirates will use another bullpen game today headlined presumably by Osvaldo Bido in a bulk role. Bido hasn’t pitched since the 20th, lining him up for a solid workload today after 69 pitches in his last outing across 15 batters. The right-hander has been up-and-down performance wise this season and draws a matchup against a Cubs offense that has been red-hot since the all-star break. Their lineup against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days alone ranks 6th in wOBA with the 4th lowest K% and a wRC+ of 116. They are one of the more well-rounded and lengthy lineups in MLB thanks to the deadline acquisition of Jemier Candelario, and their ability to hit either handedness will be massive against this bullpen-heavy approach from Pittsburgh. The Cubs are fifth in baseball in runs scored per game and have scored over six runs per game in the last three games. Expect a comfortable win for the Cubbies on Saturday night.
Bet Refund Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 25, 2023 )
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers ML/-125 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox begin their 3-game series with the Dodgers holding a 12-game lead in the NL West. Meanwhile, the Red Sox continue to fight their way into a AL wild-card spot, sitting 3.5 games back of the Houston Astros with whom they just split a series. Lance Lynn takes the mound for his 26th start of the season, and 5th since teaming up with the Dodgers at the trade deadline. It’s been a complete turnaround with the Dodgers, as Lynn has gone at least 5.0 innings in each of his starts with a 1.44 ERA. It’s difficult to predict how long that’ll last however, as Lynn pitched to a 6.47 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox. Kutter Crawford counters for the Red Sox, making his 17th starts and 25th appearance. Kutter owns a 3.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but he’s performed better as a reliever. In 74.1 innings as a starter, Kutter’s ERA sits at 4.24 as compared to a 1.66 ERA across 21.2 innings in relief. Kutter has performed well over his last 3 outings, but has gone up against the Royals, Tigers, and Yankees. The Dodgers pose a much larger threat, ranking 3rd in runs scored and 2nd in home runs. On top of that, they’re the hottest team in baseball, going 19-3 in the month of August. Lynn still has to prove himself in our opinion, but the Dodgers are rolling right now and we are not betting against that lineup. Back the Dodgers to take the first of three games in Boston.
NO Plays released for August 24, 2023
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels - Game 1
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+140 ( sportsbook: Caesar ) Winner
The Cincinnati Reds need every win they can get in the midst of a tight NL Central race and could win back-to-back series this afternoon for the first time in over a month. The only thing standing in their way?! Shohei Ohtani. The two-way AL MVP shoe-in has been incredible with both the bat and ball in his hands this season. On the mound he posts an impressive 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Ohtani enters this matchup with a whopping 0 earned runs in over a month (19 IP). While all eyes are expected to be on Ohtani, the Reds are rolling with an excellent arm in Andrew Abbott. Five of his 14 appearances this season have been shoutout starts contributing to his excellent 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He falls in the 73rd percentile in xBA and 75th percentile in K% facing an Angels lineup that has struggled in the second half of the season. Over the last 30 days, the Angels offense ranks 26th with a wRC+ of 84 and 27th in BA. When Ohtani and Abbott are eventually pulled, the Reds have the slight bullpen advantage with a combined 3.93 ERA compared to the Angels’ 4.57 ERA. Even though Abbott’s great, the Angels have the edge on the mound today. With that being said, we are not worried about Ohtani. We are worried about everyone else around him and we can’t justify a near -160 money line price against a Reds team with a solid arm on the mound and an offense capable of lighting up the scoreboard when they’re playing well. With all things considered, Cincinnati made us money yesterday at + odds, and we get another chance to cash once again on them at a really great price. We`ll take a shot at the Reds money line against the face of MLB.
Bet Refund Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 22, 2023 )
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+124 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Reds and Angels earned an extra day off as the start of their series was delayed a day due to weather. California was under water yesterday as hurricanes and earthquakes ravaged the area, and a picture of Dodger Stadium went viral as the parking lot around the stadium was completely flooded. In Anaheim, a little more north of the area, it was still very wet and forced the series opener to be delayed. That means Graham Ashcraft and Lucas Giolito will pitch today, and then there will be a doubleheader tomorrow. Ashcraft started the season as one of Cininnati’s best pitchers but went through a bad slump in May and June. The right-hander posted a 9.21 ERA in May and then a 10.38 ERA in June as the all-star break couldn’t come soon enough for him. That break was exactly what he needed since he has posted a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 7 starts in the second half of the season. The Angels needed starting pitching at the deadline, so they went out and acquired Lucas Giolito. At the time, it looked like a great decision. But we’re now in late August, and it’s looking more and more like a huge mistake. Giolito is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 4 starts with the Angels. He has yet to allow less than 3 runs in an outing, so he hasn’t been the strong addition the Angels front office was hoping for. Because of how bad Giolito has looked in an Angels uniform, we are continuing to fade him at really good odds today until he improves.
NO Plays released for August 21, 2023 )
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesar ) Winner
The Blue Jays split their last four games, but they’ve won five of their last eight road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 17 runs in their last four games. Even though Greene was pitching well before he went on the 60-day IL, he hasn’t pitched well at home this season and gave up 11 runs in his last three home starts. He will also be dealing with some rust and he’s facing a Toronto team that has done a good job hitting right-handers this season, so expect him to have a hard time slowing down the Blue Jays in this game. The Reds have won three of their last five games. They’re not playing well offensively and scored only eight runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Ryu has looked good on the mound since his first start of the season, giving up two runs in his last two starts. He has also had a lot of success against the Reds, with a 5-2 record in eight starts against them. He didn’t give up a run in his last two starts against the Reds and will keep their offense in check. Go with Toronto to cover the money line as our Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed Play.
Bet Refund Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 20, 2023 )
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Seattle Mariners ML/+160 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) - Bonus Play Winner
If you have been backing the Seattle Mariners, you have had a profitable weekend. The Mariners have been underdogs to the Astros all series, and they have won on Friday and Saturday anyway. On Saturday, they were +125 to win, and they pummelled the Astros 10-3. On Sunday, they are an even heavier underdog. Winners of 5 straight games, the Mariners are red hot, and we are all over this money line. The books have this game heavily juiced toward the defending champs, probably because Seattle is using a rookie pitcher. Emerson Hancock will be making only his third career start. Hancock is yet another elite pitching prospect developed in the Mariners’ system, and we like his chances. He has gone 5 innings in each of his 2 starts, one of them a 2-hit, 1-run outing against the Padres, and the other a 5-run outing against the Royals. We don’t expect him to keep a clean sheet, but we do expect him to hold his own. The Astros are starting Hunter Brown, who has been a steady hand all season. He has made all his starts, and that means a lot for a team with as many pitching injuries as Houston has endured. He has faced Seattle once this season, and it wasn’t great as he gave up 5 runs over 3 innings of work. The Astros might well win this game, but they are favored far too heavily. Julio Rodriguez, in case you missed it, is currently the hottest hitter in MLB history—4 straight games of 4+ hits, and an MLB-record 17 hits in 4 games. With the Mariners playing like this, this is too much value to ignore.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Bet: Under 7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) - Bonus Play Winner
The Cleveland Guardians look to close out this series with a win against divisional rival the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers defeated the Guardians 4-3 in yesterday’s matchup and it seems as though the Tigers have the Guardians’ number as they have won 6 of their 9 meetings this season. All 9 games have been relatively low-scoring with the total going under today’s number in 8 of them. The Tigers are expected to have Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and in his last start against the Boston Red Sox last Sunday was a rough one as he allowed 10 hits and 6 runs. However, in his previous start against the Guardians was the polar opposite as he did not allow a run and struck out 8 batters in a 5-0 Tigers victory on May 10. The Guardians are expected to start Logan Allen and in the last 3 starts, he has allowed 2 or fewer runs in each game, with them all going under. The total has gone under in 5 straight meetings between these teams and with starting pitchers who have been limiting their opponents, we expect another low-scoring game.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Bet: San Francisco Giants ML/+102 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Loser
The Giants will have Logan Webb on the mound on Saturday. Webb came through with another gem last time out. He was one out away from a complete game shutout before allowing a hit and one run in 8.2 innings against the Rangers in a no-decision. The Giants ace has allowed only one run in back-to-back outings and has reported a stellar 3.26 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP accompanied by a 9-9 record in 163 innings on the season. Webb has silenced the Braves, recording a minuscule 1.33 ERA with a 2-0 record in 27 innings. San Francisco usually wins games with the pitching. They shut out the Rays in a 7-0 win on Tuesday but the offensive struggles continued and they dropped the series. The Braves will give Yonny Chirinos another start. Chirinos had more trouble in his previous outing, allowing six runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings against the Mets in the previous start, and was pelted with the loss. Chirinos has been horrible since he was acquired in a deal with the Rays, posting a 9.33 ERA in four starts and has a 5.22 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP accompanied by a 5-5 record in 81 innings on the year.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Dodgers snuck out a 1-0 win over Milwaukee Thursday to sweep the Brewers to make it 11 straight wins as they continue to dominate as the playoffs loom, going 15-1 over their last 16 games. Their division lead is now double digits over the Giants so it continues to be on cruise control. Miami won the series opener in Houston but dropped the final two games prior to the off day yesterday. The Marlins had won five of their previous six games before the two recent losses and they remain right in the Wild Card race as they are tied with the Cubs and Reds for the third spot. Sandy Alcantara has not been on the same level as last season but he has had some dominating performances of late. Over his last four starts, he has two complete games where he allowed just one run in each of those and also tossed eight shutout innings against Phillies. His WHIP is now 1.18 on the season. Tony Gonsolin started the season late and was lights out for a while with a 1.93 ERA through his first nine starts but over his last 10 starts, he has posted a 6.28 ERA. The Dodgers have gone 6-1 over his last seven starts, but he has benefitted from 9.3 rpg of support. Miami is in a dogfight for the final wild-card berth in the National League, tied with the Reds and Cubs for the bottom spot. This is a big game for Miami, and we trust Alcantara more than Gonsolin at this point of the season.
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New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Bet: New York Mets ML/-134 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The New York Mets will be facing off against the Cardinals in St. Louis on Thursday night in game 1 of their series. Pitching for the Mets will be Jose Quintana, who has a 0-4 record with a 3.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Despite not having a win on his record, Quintana has been impressive as of late. He has pitched for 6+ innings in all of his last 4 starts, holding teams such as the Braves and Orioles to 2 runs or less. In the month of August, Quintana has posted a 2.89 ERA. Look for Quintana to continue his successful month in this one. Coming to the mound for the Cardinals will be the veteran pitcher, Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has struggled this season, putting together a 3-7 record with a 8.78 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. He sits in the 1st percentile for nearly all pitching percentiles and in the bottom 1% of the league for xERA (7.79), to say he has lost his touch is an understatement. He has been quite bad at home this year, having a 9.26 ERA and 2.23 WHIP. Coming off 2 consecutive starts in which he gave up 7+ runs, it’s hard to back him in any way. We`ll side with the hot pitcher in Quintana while fading Wainwright who has a 33.75 ERA this month, give us the Mets moneyline in this one.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 RL/+115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Reds will be starting Abbott on Wednesday and he has been rock solid this season. He has an ERA of 2.75 during home games and an ERA of 0.75 versus the American League. Abbott will shut down a Cleveland team that has struggled on offense this year. They have scored the fourth fewest amount of runs and have hit the fewest amount of home runs. Cleveland will not be able to match the scoring pace of the Reds. They will also be starting Syndergaard, who is making his fourth appearance in a Cleveland jersey. Syndergaard has an ERA of 9.21 during road games this year making him an easy target for the Reds to go yard on. The Reds have scored the seventh most amount of runs this year which will lead them to a win on Wednesday. Take the Reds to cover with the run line.
Bet Refund Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 15, 2023 )
Oakland Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 RL/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Oakland Athletics look to break out of a 4 game losing streak as they face the Cardinals in game 2 of the series. The Athletics briefly had a 5-3 lead in the 7th inning last night before giving up 4 runs including a 3 run triple by Jordan Walker. With this road loss, it makes 8 straight games that the Athletics lost on the road. The Athletics have also allowed 7 or more runs in 3 of the 4 last games and as the bullpen is mightily struggling, we may see a repeat performance but this time, the Cardinals are going to be able to maintain the lead. The Cardinals are expected to have Dakota Hudson start tonight and he has pitched pretty solid allowing only 3 runs in his last two starts which resulted in a Cardinals win. The Athletics are bringing out Spenser Watkins who has not pitched since October of 2022 when he was on the Baltimore Orioles. Watkins owns a relatively high ERA of 5.85 for his career. Athletics’ road woes will continue as the Cardinals should not give the Athletics any hope of getting a win here tonight. Cardinals have won 4 out of their last 5 games and should get another win here in dominant fashion. Cardinals -1.5 is the play in this spot.
Bet Refund Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 14, 2023 )
NY Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5/-102 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Braves have the best offense in the MLB. No matter who is up to bat, they are going to be a threat to hit a home run. Schmidt has allowed 17 home runs this season, so he has given up some long balls. Clarke also allows opponents to hit better off him when he pitches on the road. With the Braves ability to smack the ball around, they should be in for a good game in this one. As long as the Braves keep hitting as they have been, they will cover this spread. Fried is still one of the better pitchers in the game, even though he is coming off a little bit of a rough outing. He has made seven starts this season, and he has allowed just one run or fewer in five of those starts. New York has been struggling all season at the plate, so despite their ability to hit the ball recently, Fried should be able to shut them down. The Yankees are hitting the ball better, but they are not playing well as a team. Atlanta's offense is very good, and Max Fried is a hard pitcher to bet against. The Braves have gone an awesome 86-39 (33.6 net games) in his starts, including 43-18 (+12.3 net games) in his 61 home starts. The Braves just took 3 of 4 from the Mets and outscored them, 40-10. The Pinstripes have floundered this season, with a 60-58 record. And they've now lost six straight road series to St. Louis, Colorado, Anaheim, Baltimore, the White Sox, and Miami. In those six series, the Yankees went 5-13. We are going to take the Braves to win this game and cover the spread.
Bet Refund Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 13, 2023 )
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/+150 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
This is simply way too good a price to pass up on the Guardians. Rays have won the first two in this series, but it's not like Cleveland isn't putting up a fight. Guardians have suffered to 1-run losses, falling 8-9 on Friday and then 5-6 on Saturday. Cleveland out hit the Rays in both games. They will have Tanner Bibbee on the mound in this one and he's been rock solid all season. Bibee has a 2.92 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 18 starts. He's got a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and is coming off a gem against the Blue Jays, where he held Toronto scoreless in 7 innings of work, striking out 6 and walking 0. Bibee has been nothing short of stellar since the start of July, posting a 1.70 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 42.1 innings and winning all four of his decisions during that stretch. It is a great sign for the Guardians because they have not been swinging the bat. Entering play Saturday, they have scored the third-fewest runs in MLB, with the fourth-lowest OPS. The injury to Josh Naylor two weeks ago has really put a damper on the middle of their lineup, and they simply cannot generate consistent run support for their strong pitching. They hold the third-lowest ERA in baseball, and we like the Guardians here in a low-scoring pitcher’s duel. The Rays have lost 11 of 16 at Tropicana Field. Take Cleveland.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 11, 2023 )
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Houston Astros -1 ARL/-125 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Los Angeles Angels head on the road to face the Houston Astros in game 1 of their series on Friday night. Pitching for the Angels will be Reid Detmers, who has a 2-8 record with a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Outside of K% (82nd percentile), his percentile rankings are not so hot. He sits in the 31st percentile for xBA, 47th percentile for xSLG and 41st percentile for BB%. He performs worse on the road, which is likely why he is yet to come out victorious in an away game this season (5.49 ERA on the road compared to 4.36 ERA at home). Coming off a rough outing against the Mariners, the Astros bats should be excited to see him on the rubber in this one. Toeing the rubber for the Astros will be the newly acquired Justin Verlander, who has a 6-5 record with a 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Verlander is essentially the opposite of Detmers when it comes to percentile rankings, as he is in the lower end for K% (31st percentile) but ranks well for xBA (70th percentile), xSLG (75th percentile) and BB% (53rd percentile). Friday's game will be Verlander's first home game since being traded back to the Astros at the trade deadline. He's held eight straight opponents to three or fewer runs and surrendered one or zero runs in five of those starts. We are confident that he will continue to roll in his return to Houston against an Angels squad that let down their fans all season and especially lately, 2-7 straight-up this month, LA is slashing .226 BA/.272 OBP/.372 SLG/.645 OPS and scoring just 3.7 runs per game. The Astros, who took two of three in Baltimore last series, have hit left-handed pitchers pretty well this season, slashing .264/.328/.450/.777. In Detmer's two previous outings against Houston this year, he surrendered eight runs in 11 frames, and following a poor outing in his last start, we believe he's prone to another poor performance on Friday. Houston are 30-11 SU in their last 41 games when playing at home against LA Angels. We will be siding with the Astros’ alternate run line in this matchup.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 10, 2023 )
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+105 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Houston Astros and the Baltimore Orioles meet Thursday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This matchup marks the final installment in a three-game series. Houston eked out a victory in the Tuesday opener, then in game two the Astros rolled to a six-run win to keep it going. Baltimore is 17-4 SU in their last 21 games played on a Thursday. They are playing well offensively and scored 27 runs in their last five home games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Brown has been shaky on the mound in recent starts and has given up at least two runs in six straight starts. He gave up eight runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Orioles in this game. The Astros have won three of their last five games. They are playing well offensively and scored 17 runs in their last three road games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they don’t hit the ball as well against right-handers and Kremer has done a good job on the mound for the Orioles, especially at home where he gave up five runs in his last two starts. He gave up just one run in two starts against the Astros and with Baltimore having the sixth-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Houston’s offense in check. Baltimore has gone 75 consecutive series of at least two decisions without being swept, so we will go with Baltimore to cover the money line and keep that historic streak alive.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 9, 2023 )
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Bet: Boston Red Sox -1.5 RL/-107 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
Jordan Lyles will get his 22nd start of the season for the Royals tonight and if there was an award for the worst pitcher in each league, Lyles would have locked up his spot for the AL months ago. His 5.35 FIP ranks worst among all qualified pitchers this season, as does his 6.24 ERA. Among the bottom 21 pitchers in ERA, Lyles .264 BABIP is by far the lowest, and it is a mark sitting well below his career-long .302 BABIP. He ranks 6th worst with his 9.5% K-BB% as well. Pitching at Kauffman Stadium has helped improve his season-long numbers, as his road ERA sits at 7.56 with opponents hitting .294 against him. Heading into Fenway Park to take on a potent Red Sox lineup in favorable hitting conditions is not likely to help those numbers. Boston in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching ranks just above Kansas City at 8th in wOBA, while sitting 9th in hard-hit rate and producing a 107 wRC+. Active Red Sox bats have a combined .883 OPS across 88 PA against Lyles and having 6 lefty bats in the lineup will be massive as that is his lesser split. The Royals bullpen ranks 23rd in WHIP and 29th in ERA across the last 30 days and have sent away their valuable pieces at the trade deadline. Boston is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Kansas City. Kansas City is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games played on a Wednesday when playing on the road. Kansas City is 4-15 SU in their last 19 games on the road. We expect Boston to have scoring chances throughout this game and enough runs scored to cover the runline.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for August 8, 2023 )
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1 ARL/-130 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Rays have won five of their last seven games. They have played well offensively during that stretch and scored 20 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve done a great job batting against right-handers and Mikolas has struggled on the mound in recent starts, especially on the road where he gave up nine runs in his last three starts. He gave up 12 runs in two career starts against the Rays and with St. Louis having the eighth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Rays in this game. The Cardinals have lost four of their last six games and four of their last six road games. They’re not playing well offensively and scored only 10 runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Eflin has done a great job on the mound for the Rays, giving up five runs in his last three starts. He gave up two runs in his last home start against the Cardinals and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Tampa Bay to cover the alternate run line.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/-130 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Cubs are the winningest team since the All-Star break, while also scoring the most runs since the break. The Mets had lost 6 games in a row prior to last night’s victory while failing to score more than 3 runs in 5 of those 6 losses. And every one of those previous trends was totally upended when the Mets exploded for an 11-2 victory on Monday. We expect order to be restored on Tuesday, and it appears that Monday’s result has pushed down the price for us as well. The pitching matchup is an interesting one, as we’ll see Jameson Taillon versus Carlos Carrasco. At the risk of oversimplifying things, Taillon has been really good lately, and Carrasco has been really bad. To elaborate on that more, Taillon had a really rough patch in the middle of the summer, but he has since turned in 5 solid outings in a row. He has given up 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, and the Cubs have won all 5 of those games. He is in a good place right now. Carrasco? Not so much. Carrasco looks like a guy who is washed up or at least pitching injured, which is a shame, given all that he has overcome to get back into the league. He has given up a combined 21 runs in his last 4 starts, and only once has he made it into the 5th inning. Add to that the heavily depleted bullpen of the Mets, and this is a tough spot for New York to win. NY Mets are 4-21 SU in their last 25 games when playing as the underdog. The Cubs should get back on track on Tuesday night. We will go with Taillon and the Cubs to win convincingly here.
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Over 10/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Mitch Keller has fallen apart after an amazing breakthrough start to the season that earned him his first all-star appearance. The Pirates’ right-hander has struggled mightily of late, allowing 8, 6, and 9 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts made. Keller began the season with a 0.97 WHIP and 2.44 ERA across his first 10 starts spanning 62.2 IP. Since then, the Pirates all-star has tossed 76 innings with a 1.49 WHIP and 5.92 ERA. His command has slipped dramatically in terms of both more walks issued, and more hanging breaking balls over the middle of the plate. Keller’s barrel rate has fallen all the way to 28th percentile, and highest since his 2020 season. His struggles against left-handed batters are most distinct, allowing an .832 OPS with 13 of his 18 home runs allowed coming against those lefties. The largest issue with his pitch mix against lefty bats is his poor cutter. Initially this pitch helped his overall pitch mix but now the pitch is by far his worst performing offering. That pitch allowed a .559 wOBA across 21 batted ball events last month and threw 4 batted ball events this month he has allowed 3 hits and a home run. He uses this pitch primarily to those lefty bats and Atlanta has some of the more powerful ones in the game including Matt Olson and his torrid home run pace. As a whole, Atlanta is the deepest and most dangerous offense in the sport. Behind Keller is a Pirates bullpen that has pitched well in the last 30 days but is still a youthful group that has performed very streakily this season. Yonny Chirinos flipped from one World Series hopeful team in the Rays to another in the Braves with his mid-season team change, but despite 2 amazing organizations finding him useful, we struggle to ever back him. The right-hander has made 2 starts with his new team, allowing a combined 7 earned runs in 8.2 IP against the Brewers and Angels. Only 61 and 75 pitches in those starts have resulted in heavier bullpen usage late, and we shouldn’t expect more than 5 innings or so from Chirinos once again tonight. He ranks just 1st percentile this season in K%, rarely ever recording a 3rd strike and instead allowing a ton of balls in play. You may think he suppresses contact well if he allows so much of it, but that isn’t the case with his batted ball profile leaving a ton to be desired. Chirinos ranks just 5th percentile in xBA, 8th percentile in xSLG, and 17th percentile in hard-hit rate. The Pirates don’t have the most explosive offense on a consistent basis, but their youthful and talented prospects have shown flashes of their upside in recent weeks. This includes smashing Spencer Strider for 6 earned runs in under 3 innings last night despite no long balls. Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are hitting the ball very hard and should have solid individual matchups in the first half of this game. We like the over in this matchup.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 7, 2023 )
Chicago Cubs vs. NY Mets
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/+105 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Chicago Cubs are headed to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets in game 1 of their series Monday night. Pitching for the Cubs will be Drew Smyly, who has a 8-7 record with a 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His percentile rankings are nothing to brag about outside of the fact that he does a good job preventing hard hits. He sits in the 37th percentile for xBA, 36th percentile for K%, 44th percentile for xSLG and 58th percentile for BB%. Smyly has pitched much better in away games this year, having a 3.26 ERA away compared to his 6.26 home ERA. On the mound for the Mets will be Kodai Senga, who has a 7-6 record with a 3.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Outside of struggling with giving free passes (12th percentile for BB%), his percentile rankings are respectable. Senga has good numbers at home this season, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but his recent start worries us as he allowed 11 hits against the Royals. With an xERA of 3.65, we expect the scorching hot Cubs offense to get some runs on the board against the struggling Mets. NY Mets are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games when playing at home against Chicago Cubs. Chicago Cubs are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games. We`ll continue to ride the Cubs’ impressive performances and take them for plus odds in this one.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 6, 2023 )
Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 RL/-105 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
After ripping off 7 straight wins, the Royals finally came back to earth and took a loss on Saturday to the Phillies. During that entire stretch, the Royals have been underdogs, and they have been cashing plus-money tickets for bettors bold enough to back them. There is profit to be made if you believe in them again on Sunday, but we are going to back the Phillies. This game is only really playable on the Run Line, so we are backing Philadelphia to cover. Taijuan Walker has been strong for the Phillies all season. He isn’t untouchable, but he keeps the ball in the yard, and he almost always limits the damage to a couple of runs. Zack Greinke will go for the Royals. The Royals did win his last outing, a 5-inning and 1-run effort against the Mets, but we think the Phillies will be much more effective with the bats. We do not expect the Royals to start a new winning streak, and it is really just a question of whether we think Philly can cover. The Run Line, either way, is priced around -105, depending on the site. We are going to play the Philadelphia side, and we expect them to cover for a second straight day.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Atlanta Braves look to bounce back from yesterday’s loss against the Chicago Cubs which snapped their 3 game winning streak. The Cubs won yesterday 8-6 led by getting a fast start in the game with 5 runs scored in the 1st inning. Both teams have been playing pretty well and it shows with this series being tied 1-1. Both the Cubs and Braves have won 4 out of their last 6 games. In the last 7 games, both are ranked top 10 in batting average, on base percentage and top 2 in slugging percentage as the Braves rank 1st with .600 followed by the Cubs with close to .058. This game will possibly be won by the pitching. The Braves are expected to start veteran Charlie Morton. In his last 3 starts, the Braves have lost all 3 games. In his last start against the Los Angeles Angels, Morton allowed 3 home runs. The Cubs are expected to start All Star Justin Steele who has won his last 3 starts. With him being the better pitcher in this matchup, we are quite surprised that the Cubs are an underdog in this spot especially at home as well. We just can't pass up the Cubs at home, at this price, with a guy like Justin Steele on the mound. Charlie Morton has been hit or miss all year. He's not been great of late, posting a 6.45 ERA and 1.890 WHIP in his last 3 starts, and all 3 losses as massive favorites (-220, -140, -205). Taking the Cubs to win it in this spot.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 5, 2023 )
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-148 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Rays and Tigers pick back up on Saturday afternoon, following an 8-0 win by Tampa on Friday night. The Tigers only amassed 3 total hits, and this game was never in question after Tampa plated 4 runs in the first 2 frames. Given that context, it is suspicious that the oddsmakers have this as a fairly close game, and you can even get plus money for Tampa to cover the spread. The oddsmakers expect a lower scoring game as well. For us, we have a hard time seeing the case for Detroit in this one. We are going to go with the Rays, who are a vastly superior team. Aaron Civale will make his first start for his new team. Tampa acquired Civale at the deadline, and you know how Tampa is with pitchers. If they traded for him, they must have seen something that they think they can maximize and exploit. Civale has been about as effective as a low-K pitcher can be. He rarely gives up hits, much less runs, and with the Tampa offense behind him, he should thrive in his new digs (although maintaining his 2.34 ERA in the AL East will be much more difficult than it was in the AL Central). The Tigers will hand the ball to Tarik Skubal. Skubal will be making only his 6th start of the season, and he has yet to go beyond the 5th inning of any game. He has been inconsistent so far, as 3 of his 5 starts have been shutouts, while the other two starts saw a combined 11 runs in 8.2 innings. Notably, the Tigers have lost 4 of his 5 starts. His inconsistency gives Civale and the Rays an edge in this one. Detroit struggles to score and Tampa Bay is one of the best offenses in the league. Civale is someone that is extremely familiar with the Tigers and he has owned them in his career, his team going 10-0 when he is starting. Pitching with a better lineup behind him than what he had in Cleveland makes Civale that much more effective down the stretch. Detroit is 3-18 SU in their last 21 games against an opponent in the American League East Division division. Tampa Bay is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Detroit. We are backing the Rays with confidence.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for August 4, 2023 )
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
Bet: Baltimore Orioles -1 ARL/-120 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Baltimore has been good on offense this season. They are in the top 10 or around the top 10 in the league in runs, RBIs, strikeouts, SLG, and OPS. The Orioles will face David Peterson but he may not pitch for long and it could end up being a bullpen game for the Mets. Peterson has not had a good season, recording a 5.92 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He lost his spot in the starting rotation and has not pitched more than two innings since July 8. With the Mets trading away Verlander and Scherzer, Peterson may be back in the starting rotation but he has not been good. Outside of K%, his percentile rankings are poor. He sits in the 16th percentile for xBA, 33rd percentile for xSLG and 41st percentile for BB%. He also has horrendous away game splits, posting a 1-5 record with an 8.41 ERA and 1.84 WHIP while yielding 32 earned runs and 8 HR in 33 2/3 innings. The Orioles bats are no joke and it is possible that Peterson runs into trouble really early in this matchup. The Orioles are surging and their offense has been clicking. The Orioles are a dangerous offensive team and they should be able to generate enough production at the dish to support Kremer while picking up the win in the opening game of this series. NY Mets are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games when playing as the underdog. NY Mets are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the American League. NY Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 road games with Peterson as a starter. Baltimore is 31-13 SU in their last 44 games when playing as the favourite. We are taking Baltimore Orioles -1 alternate run line as our MLB No Limit Play.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Bet: Houston Astros ML/-148 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has had two consecutive solid outings, allowing 10 hits and four runs in 12 innings with Houston winning both of the games. New York starting pitcher Luis Severino is coming off his worst outing of the season after allowing 10 hits and nine runs in just 3 ⅓ innings when losing to Baltimore 9-3 last Sunday. The Astros own the Yankees of late, rattling off seven straight wins over New York and nine over their last 10 meetings. Over Severino’s last five starts the Yankees are 1-4 and he has lasted just 4.1 innings on average in that stretch. He allowed at least seven runs in three of those games and eight hits in four. He’s been getting pummeled, and Houston should pounce on the opportunity to continue the trend. The Astros have averaged 6.2 runs per game over their last five and have scored at least four runs in 10 second-half games. They are a team on a mission to get back to the top in the West and the Yankees are simply a team playing out the slate at this point. We like Houston to continue its dominance of New York here. Take the Astros with the money line.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 3, 2023 )
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL/+123 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Both teams were expected to be non-factors in the NL Central this season but here we are in early August and things have clearly shifted. Cincinnati’s youth movement has paid off in spades though they were unable to reel in a starting pitcher to help bolster their rotation. As a result, they have to send Weaver out every fifth day for the time being and with his ERA sitting close to seven at this point, it’s tough to get excited about his chances. Weaver makes his eighth career start against the Cubs in this contest. He is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA, a 2.046 WHIP, 13 walks and 23 strikeouts over 29.1 innings of work against them. Weaver is 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA, a 2.417 WHIP, nine walks and eight strikeouts over 12 innings of work in three career starts at Wrigley Field. Chicago has been battering opposing pitchers since the All-Star break, as we saw in full force the last 2 days. Meanwhile, Taillon has found himself of late, going 3-0 over his last four starts. The Cubs have been rolling of late and that, plus home-field advantage, works in their favor in this one.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 2, 2023 )
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Bet: Washington Nationals ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals close out their midweek series this afternoon with Wade Miley and MacKenzie Gore getting the starting nods on the mound. Although it’s no secret this season hasn’t necessarily gone the Nationals way, this is a fantastic spot for them to light up the scoreboard in front of their home fans. Milwaukee’s Miley posts a solid 3.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but his 4.87 xERA and 4.78 xFIP suggest he’s due for regression. This will be Miley’s first start in over two weeks after coming off the 15-day IL due to elbow soreness in his throwing arm (left). Considering Washington has the 4th best BA (.278) against lefties this season, this is a favorable matchup for the Nats’ bats. Not only are they solid against lefties, but the Nationals offense deserves more respect across the board. They have a top 5 batting average in the league and have scored the 4th most runs since the All-Star break. With Miley’s poor advanced metrics across the board, 4th percentile in fastball velocity, 7th percentile in whiff%, 15th percentile in xBA, we expect Washington to do their job on offense, considering the fact that Miley gave up 11 runs in his last three starts against the Nationals and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Brewers have lost five of their last six games and four of their last five road games. They will struggle offensively in this game because they have struggled against left-handers and Gore has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, especially at home where he hasn’t given up a run in two consecutive starts. He didn’t give up a run in his lone start against the Brewers and will keep their offense in check once again. Gore falls in the 73rd percentile for fastball velocity as well as the 93rd percentile in extension, a solid combo matching up against a Brewers lineup that struggles against the fastball. With all things considered, we are backing the Nationals on the money line in a spot we believe they should be favored in.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for August 1st, 2023 )
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees ( Favorite of the Day )
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Tampa took game one 5-1 and is looking to take game 2 and the series. The Rays are 1.5 games out of the division lead and need to win these games over the Yankees to catch up to the Orioles.
Rodon has struggled out of the gate in his first season with the Yankees after missing the first three months of the year. He did earn the win in his last start but the fact remains that the Yankees haven’t been able to string together complete performances with any regularity over the last couple of months. Tampa Bay bounced back with a vengeance after losing in blowout fashion Saturday night by rolling to a win Sunday afternoon. The Rays are a very dangerous offensive team and they have one of their few remaining capable starters on the hill here in Eflin. He struggled his last time out but has pitched well against the Yankees in his career. Zach Eflin has a 3.64 ERA through 20 starts with a 11-6 record. Eflin has a 3.7 BB percentage, which is in the top 2% of the league and a 25.2 strikeout percentage, which is well above the league average. He is a solid pitcher in an even better rotation. With Tampa Bay boasting a better lineup, and being 58-18 SU in their last 76 games played in August, we will take them on the ML.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays ( Destroyer of the Day )
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays face off this evening with an interesting matchup on the mound. The Orioles are rolling with one of their traditional starters in Kyle Bradish, while the Blue Jays have activated 36-year-old Hyun Jin Ryu off the 60-day IL to start today. This will be Ryu’s first start since June of 2022 after having Tommy John surgery for the second time of his career. He was solid in his minor-league rehab appearances, but coming back to face this Orioles lineup for his first major league start in more than 13 months is a tall task even with his veteran experience. His ERA has been on a steady decline since 2018, so it’s somewhat puzzling to see the Blue Jays even slightly favored on the money line in a bit of an unknown spot for them this season. While Ryu has no major-league stats to reference from this calendar year, Bradish posts a solid 3.29 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Although this will be a familiar arm to face for this Blue Jays lineup, Bradish had success in his first and only appearance against Toronto this season, surrendering just 1 run and 4 hits in 7.0 innings pitched. Both of these teams are capable of lighting up a scoreboard, but we are relying more on the Orioles’ pitching to get the job done while the bats do their thing against Ryu. Baltimore has already won a pair of important AL East series, and a win today would make it 3 divisional series wins in a row. With all things considered, after cashing our ticket last night with Baltimore +125, we are backing again tonight the Orioles to get another win on the road.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 31, 2023 )
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs ( Invincible Game of the Day )
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+104 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Andrew Abbott is having a stellar rookie season. He’s made 10 starts at the MLB level and has a sub-2 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate. Abbott is also on a 14-inning scoreless streak heading into Monday’s start which demonstrates just how good the lefty has been in his first year. His success has been backed by his advanced metrics too considering he owns a .212 xBA and a .255 wOBA through 61.2 innings. The lefty has a tough task ahead of him to face a Cubs lineup that has been bashing pitchers left and right since the break, but there’s one thing that stands out to us about their offense, they struggle against lefties. Since the break, the Cubs rank 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. However, they rank 17th in batting average, 15th on-base percentage, 15th in slugging percentage, 14th in OPS and 14th in wRC+ against lefties. Marcus Stroman was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season. He had a 2.76 ERA in April, a 2.87 ERA in May and a 2.17 ERA in June. However, July has been a completely different story. He owns a 7.99 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP in July and has only been getting worse after every start. The right-hander has surrendered 12 runs, 16 hits and 6 walks in his last 7 innings to the Cardinals and White Sox. Stroman isn’t getting as many ground balls as he’s used to and getting barreled far too often, and until he shows any signs of improvement, we are fading Stroman and the Cubs.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays ( Shocker of the Day )
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+125 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Things have gotten pretty tight in the highly-competitive AL East over the past few weeks, and Monday's contest between Toronto and Baltimore marks the start of an important series. Part of the reason Toronto is looking up at the Orioles is because the Blue Jays haven't had any success against them so far this season. The Orioles are 5-1 against Toronto this year. That includes a dominant performance by Kyle Gibson against the Blue Jays back in May when he fired seven innings of one-run baseball to earn the victory. Gibson's success against Toronto isn't limited to just this season, either. In 12 career starts against the Blue Jays, Gibson is 6-2. On the other side, Chris Bassitt already got blasted by Baltimore once this season, lasting just three innings and allowing 11 hits and eight earned runs. Players currently on Baltimore's roster are batting .371 lifetime against Bassitt. Baltimore's bullpen has a slightly lower ERA than Toronto's this season, and the numbers we listed above for Gibson give us confidence that he'll help his team get it done on Monday. Winning on the road is something Baltimore has been great at all season. We are siding with the Orioles to grab another road victory on Monday.
MLB No Limit Plays - Bonus Plays ( Plays released for July 31, 2023 )
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Houston Astros -1.5 RL/+110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros meet for the second time this season getting their new series underway with Noah Syndergaard and J.P. France getting the starts on the mound. Although this will be Syndegaard’s first appearance for the Guardians after being traded from the Dodgers, it’s no secret he’s been getting hit around in just about every start. Although his 5.67 xERA and 5.54 FIP compared to his 7.16 ERA suggest he’s eventually in for some positive regression, on the road against a solid Astros lineup is a tough spot to get right. With a 1.45 WHIP, Syndergaard has surrendered 17 runs in his last 14 innings pitched. He hasn’t pitched in almost 2 months, so we would expect there to be some rust against a team capable of lighting up the scoreboard in the early innings. The Astros certainly have the advantage on the mound tonight with France. France posts a solid 2.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Although an xERA of 4.34 and FIP of 4.33 suggest he’s eventually in for regression, it hasn’t come yet. His xERA has hovered around there for a while now, yet France has surrendered just ONE earned run in his last 14 innings pitched. Despite the Guardians drastically improving offensively since the beginning of the season, Houston still has the advantage. The Astros rank top 10 in runs scored, BA (.266) and OPS (.804). All in all, we are backing Syndergaard’s bad form to continue in a tough spot on the road. We`ll be taking the Astros on the run line in this one.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Bet: Over 7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
They’ve got three games under their belts already this season and those came with an average of 13 combined runs scored per game. All three of those games beat the over and the over has now gone 8-2 in their last ten meetings. This game should come with a lower total than those did, based on the pitching matchup. However, both of these starters are capable of giving up runs. Combined, Bello and Kirby allowed eight runs in their last starts. Both teams' offenses have actually been hitting the ball very well in the second half and have both done well to maintain momentum. The Boston Red Sox are scoring 5.0 RPG this season and have been one of the best hitting teams in baseball. The Seattle Mariners have scored at least 3 runs in 13 consecutive games and are hitting as well as they have all season. Nick Pivetta is 3-3 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 8 starts this year. George Kirby is 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Mariners. Kirby sports a 4.86 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against the Red Sox. Pivetta sports a 4.77 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Mariners.
MLB No Limit Plays - Bonus Plays ( Plays released for July 30, 2023 )
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/-139 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Chicago White Sox have lost six of their last seven overall, five of their last six played at home and Chicago has lost seven of its last eight when playing against a team from the American League. Chicago is just 23rd and runs scored and does not score enough, as the White Sox are 24th in team ERA at 4.62. Cleveland struggles as well producing runs and is just 24th with 434 but the Guardians have a far better pitching staff that is 6th in baseball in team ERA at 3.83. Cleveland starting pitcher Aaron Civale has held each of his last five opponents to two earned runs or less while allowing a total of six runs in 36 ⅓ innings. Chicago starting pitcher Michael Kopech gave up four runs last time out when losing to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 7-5 and has allowed four earned runs in two of the last three outings. White Sox are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against an opponent in the American League.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-137 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Phillies have a huge pitching advantage today as Cristopher Sanchez continues to impress in the starting rotation. After being called up for a spot start in June, Sanchez has forced his way into the rotation with a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The Phillies refuse to hit for him most days, and thus they have lost 5 of his 8 starts, but he has yet to give up more than 3 runs in any outing. Sanchez should do his part. On the other side, it is time for our weekly game of “fade Rich Hill”. The Pirates have lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and he rarely gives up fewer than 3 runs. When we see him on the docket, we fade. The Phillies also hit lefties better than Pittsburgh, and the Pittsburgh lefty is far more vulnerable than Philly’s. This game should be Philly all the way. There is plus-money on the Philly run line, but with two 1-run games in this series already, we will stay safer with the money line.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 30, 2023 )
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets ( MLB No Limit Play - Destroyer of the Day )
Bet: New York Mets -1.5 RL/-118 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The New York Mets look to bounce back from their 11-6 loss against the Washington Nationals last night as they close out their current 4-game series, now leading 2-1. The Mets are bringing out veteran Justin Verlander and have won 4 of his last 5 starts. He did not allow a single run in his last outing against the New York Yankees on July 25 as the Mets won 9-3. The Nationals are expected to start Trevor Williams, who has not been reliable, issuing a 5.11 ERA this month, and has squandered five runs in 7.1 innings against the rivals this season. Since the start of June, it seems as though he has alternated wins and losses. The bad news for him there is that the Nationals won his last start against the Colorado Rockies, 6-5 last Tuesday. The 4 wins for the Mets in Verlander’s recent starts were all by at least 2 runs, so with the Mets’ ML price kind of steep we will back the Mets -1.5 on the run line.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals ( MLB No Limit Play - Favorite of the Day )
Bet: Minnesota Twins ML/-160 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Loser
The Royals go for the sweep against the Twins on Sunday afternoon. The Royals have not swept an opponent all season long, in fact they have not won more than 2 games in a row all season, losing the next game by at least 2 runs, and it is hard to imagine that they get it done today against Maeda who is 3-0 when starts against Kansas, with an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 0.722. Kansas City is wildly inconsistent and they have needed performances of a lifetime from Bobby Witt Jr. over the past two games to earn wins. Witt Jr. has nine RBIs, eight hits, four extra base hits, two home runs, one grand slam and one stolen base during these past two games. Since 1920, Willie Mays and Witt Jr. are the only two players to accomplish this feat. The Royals need history to get the job done and it won’t happen again on Sunday. The Twins look to build off a game where they scored seven runs and constantly drive in runs with Alex Kirilloff, Donovan Solano, and the rest of the lineup making hard contact and crushing pitches against the Royals pitchers. The Twins should limit the Royals lineup with Kenta Maeda pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros ( MLB No Limit Play - Shocker of the Day )
Bet: Houston Astros ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Loser
The Tampa Bay Rays look to bounce back from being dominated last night by the Houston Astros as they close out their series which is now tied at 1-1. The Rays pushed back Tyler Glasnow to Monday meaning they will turn to a bullpen game on Sunday. Littell will get the starting nod but don't expect him to last much past the second inning. Coming off a blowout loss on Saturday, this will be a tough assignment for the Rays' bullpen on Sunday.The Astros crushed the Rays 17-4 with 5 different hitters blasting a home run. The Rays opened up as a slight favorite but we don’t seeing the case for that as they have been on a losing skid, losing 9 of their last 12 games. The Astros are getting into their stride with key players are returning from injury and have won 7 of their last 10 games. The Rays are expected to start Zack Littell and they have lost each of his last 2 starts by 4 runs. The Astros, however, have won 3 of Brandon Bielak’s last 4 games. At the time of writing the analysis we are getting great value for the Astros at +105 price with home field advantage and they are 9-3 in their last 12 games against the Rays. We expect Bielak to have better command in this game and get the Astros deeper into the game to utilize what should be a fresh bullpen after Saturday's blowout win. HOUSTON is 36-12 SU (22.8 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. The Astros will take the series with a win on Sunday over a Rays' team forced to utilize their bullpen yet again.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 29, 2023 )
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bet: Over 10/-117 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Reds and Dodgers play the late game on Saturday. If you didn’t stay up for the end of Friday’s action, the Reds held on to beat the Dodgers 6-5, after jumping out to a 3-run lead in the first inning. These Reds just keep winning, and if you think they can do it again, Saturday’s game offers a nice payout. We cannot bring ourselves to back Luke Weaver as he is just dreadful, but this stat could blow your mind. Despite Weaver being a nightmare as a pitcher, the Reds have won 9 of his last 10 starts. One of those wins was against the Dodgers, despite the fact that Weaver gave up 7 runs. We do not understand how the Reds keep winning with Weaver taking the mound, but we do know that he is likely to give up a bunch of runs in very few innings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will turn to Emmet Sheehan, and we suspect his days as a starter are numbered as the Dodgers buy up pieces at the trade deadline. Sheehan has made 6 starts, and he has got progressively worse. In his last 3 starts, he has got out of the 4th inning only once, and he has given up 17 runs in a combined 12.1 innings. He walked 12 in those 3 starts, and those free bases have usually scored. The devil-may-care Reds shouldn’t have trouble scoring on him either. We expect both these starters to get shellacked early. Neither of these bullpens is good enough to consistently cover a lot of innings cleanly, and the Reds used most of their good arms last night on top of that. This one could turn into a slow-pitch softball score. We got a really good number at BetRivers over 10 runs -117.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 28, 2023 )
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-147 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Zack Wheeler will start the first game of this series with the Pirates. He took a tough-luck loss against Cleveland last Saturday, allowing one run on five hits and one walk while striking out eight batters. The right-hander also got his 12th quality start of the year, tied for ninth-most in the Majors. Pittsburgh has not looked good at all after the break. They have lost 12 of 17. The Phillies are 10 games back of the first-place Atlanta Braves, and there is a log jam in the wild card race, with four teams within a game of each other. We like Wheeler to out-duel the struggling Mitch Keller, and the Phillies to notch another win. Keller is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies and has given up 14 runs and 19 hits in 11 innings in his last 2 games, both losses. Wheeler is 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA in his last 2 starts while yielding 14 earned runs and 5 HR in 11 innings to the Guardians and Angels. Keller is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Phillies, yielding 13 earned runs in 15 innings. Pittsburgh doesn’t grade out well offensively in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, ranking 25th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 81 and the 5th-highest K% at 26.1%. The Phillies bullpen in the last 30 days actually ranks 1st in ERA and 5th in FIP so they should be able to close the door once Wheeler exits. Philadelphia is 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played on a Friday when playing on the road. Pittsburgh is 6-22 SU in their last 28 games played in July, 10-27 SU in their last 37 games played on a Friday and 8-24 SU in their last 32 games against an opponent in the National League East Division. We are taking the Phillies ML -147 at WynnBet.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 27, 2023 )
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 3 runs in 19 of their last 20 games and at least 5 runs in 14 of those. They have gone 7-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring at least 7 runs in six of those. They feel like they have a real chance of making the playoffs, while the St. Louis Cardinals sit at 46-57 and pretty much out of it. The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Justin Steele over Miles Mikolas. Steele is 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in seven road starts. Steele is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA in his last four starts against the Cardinals, allowing just 7 earned runs and zero homers in 25 1/3 innings. Mikolas is 6-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 22 starts this season, and 2-2 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in 10 home starts. His last start came against the Cubs on July 22nd where he allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 innings of an 8-6 loss at Chicago. St. Louis is 4-12 following a win by 4 runs or more this season. Bet the Cubs Thursday.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 26, 2023 )
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML/+186 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
San Diego closed their recent roadtrip an average 5-5 while splitting the first two games of this series and that has been the story of the season of high expectations. The Padres are three games under .500 and well out in both their division and the Wild Card. Pittsburgh lost two of three against the Angels to open its six-game roadtrip before the first two games here and the offense has shown some promise by averaging nearly 5.0 rpg over its last six games after scoring six runs in its previous four games. The Padres have been massive favorites the first two games with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell on the hill and they are a big favorite again, this time with Seth Lugo who does not deserve a number this big. He has pitched well with a 3.72 ERA but San Diego is just 6-8 in his 14 starts. Johan Oviedo had a very solid stretch after a slow start to the season but he has regressed over his last four starts with only one quality outing in there. We should see a bounce back against a very overrated lineup in a pitcher-friendly park as a phenomenal price.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 25, 2023 )
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Bet: Colorado Rockies ML/+118 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Loser
The Nationals are getting the benefit of the doubt because they're at home and they`ve swept the Giants, but the Rockies were able to come up with some big hits on Monday night and they scored 10 runs in the Game 1 victory. Neither one of these teams has a very good record, but Colorado is definitely trending in the right direction. The Rockies are starting Austin Gomber, who isn't a pitcher you should be excited to get behind posting a 6.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP but if you look closely, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. With that said, the Rockies are 6-3 since the break, and they're providing value for the first time all year. Also, nobody should be looking to lay juice with the Nationals, who have lost each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents. The value is with the Rockies in the underdog role. Washington is just 3-21 SU in their last 24 games played on a Tuesday.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 24, 2023 )
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Bet: San Diego Padres -1.5 RL/-121 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Pirates have fallen on hard times since early June and their woes continued over the weekend in Anaheim as they dropped two of three games including a 7-5 result yesterday. Meanwhile, the Padres dropped a 3-1 decision yesterday in Detroit, failing to close out the three-game sweep. We look for San Diego to bounce back on Monday as it hands the ball to Yu Darvish against rookie Quinn Priester of the Pirates. Darvish hasn't been his usual dominant self this season but has shown signs of rounding into form lately, allowing just one earned run over his last two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. One thing has remained a constant for the veteran right-hander this season and that has been his effectiveness at Petco Park as he has recorded a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven home starts. Even with his slightly higher ERA, Darvish remains one of the most dangerous pitchers in the National League and has had a lot of success against Pittsburgh’s offense in his career. In 67 plate appearances against Darvish, Pittsburgh’s lineup has a combined .155 batting average. It's worth noting that each of the Padres last 15 victories in Darvish starts have come by at least two runs going back to last September. Quinn Priester will make his second big league start for the Pirates. Last time out he was rocked for seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Guardians. No offense to Cleveland, but the Guardians aren’t exactly known for their powerful offense. Priester wasn’t overly impressive in the Minors this season and didn’t look any better for the Pirates. It's not as if Priester had been dominating Triple-A hitters before getting the call to the big leagues as he had logged a 4.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 87 2/3 innings for Indianapolis. The Padres should have the edge in the later stages of this game as well as their bullpen has been lights out lately, posting a collective 1.85 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over their last seven games, working just 24 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Pirates 'pen has logged a 4.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch and is reaching into 'overworked' territory having been called into action for 31 2/3 innings in that time frame.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 23, 2023 )
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+125 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Orioles and the Rays finish their 4-game series today with Baltimore having a 2-1 lead. This is a battle for the division with the Orioles leading the AL East and the Rays exactly one game behind them. The Orioles will start Tyler Wells who has a 3.54 ERA through 18 starts with a 7-5 record. Wells is a solid pitcher with a 25.0 K percentage and a below-average BB percentage, WOBA, and xBA. He will be opposed by Taj Bradley who has a 5.29 ERA through 14 starts with a 5-6 record. The rookie’s K percentage is 30.6% which is in the top 10% of the league but his xWOBAcon is well above league average which means despite striking people out he is still expected to let people on base after contact. This game doesn’t line up to be a pitcher’s duel but it should still be a good matchup for those who are interested. This is a battle between 2 division rivals who are both looking to lead the AL East and do so with good pitching and really good offense. The Orioles average 4.92 runs per game with a .252 BA, .420 SLG, and a .321 WOBA. They have a 12.6 batting fWAR which is 6th in the American League. The Rays are just ahead of the Orioles averaging 5.27 runs per game with a .257 BA, .448 SLG, and a .335 WOBA. They have a 21.6 batting fWAR which is second-best in the AL. The Orioles may have worse offensive numbers than the Rays but we like the O’s to win this game. They have won 11 of their last 14 games and 5 of their last 7 games against the Rays. On top of that they are 7-1 in their last 8 road games. The Rays started the season red hot but are 1-7 in their last 8 games and 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Bradley has more upside but his ERA is still above 5 and his record shows he shouldn’t be much of a factor against this O’s offense. Take the Orioles to win on the road at plus money.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 22, 2023 )
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Bet: New York Yankees -1.5 RL/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals in an afternoon matchup after securing a 5-4 victory in the series opener last night. The Yankees will start AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole, who had a great outing in his last start against the Colorado Rockies, striking out 11 hitters and allowing only 1 run. With the Yankees losing 4 straight before defeating the Royals last night, it’s a good opportunity for them to get some momentum going. The Royals have righty Brady Singer pitching and he owns a relatively high ERA at 5.70 for the season. Looking at the batting rotation for the Yankees, 5 of their batters have a hit on Singer in their career. In his last 2 starts, Singer has allowed an average of 5 runs and 10 hits. The Royals have been abysmal against right-handed pitchers, losing close to 72% of their games. They are facing an elite right-handed talent in Cole which will make it difficult for the Royals’ hitters to put the ball into play. We like the Yankees to win by at least 2 runs.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Bet: Seattle Mariners ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Seattle Mariners will look to continue their momentum after their walk-off victory last night against the Toronto Blue Jays as they face them again this afternoon. It looked as if the Blue Jays would be able to cruise to victory last night but their bullpen collapsed and gave up 1 run in each of the crucial 7th, 8th and 9th innings. It is surprising to see the Blue Jays collapse in that fashion given that they are in the top 10 in opponent batting average, ERA and WHIP. It is important to note that the Mariners in recent history have got the better of the Blue Jays, especially at home, where they have won the last 5 meetings. We like the value that we are getting with the Mariners as a home underdog. Logan Gilbert is expected to start for the Mariners and they have won his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays will bring out Kevin Gausman and they have lost 3 straight games with him on the mound. The Mariners ML is the play.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Cincinnati Reds have won 3 straight games and look to push it to 4 as they face the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Reds defeated the Diamondbacks 9-6 last night thanks to a 5-run 5th inning led by rookie Matt McLain hitting his first grand slam. The bats for the Reds have been productive as of late as they produced at 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games, while the Diamondbacks given up at least 7 runs in 4 out of their last 6 games. It’s a battle of rookie Brandons on the mound with the Diamondbacks starting Brandon Pfaadt while the Reds go with Brandon Williamson. We think the Reds will continue to be aggressive at the plate and put themselves in a position to win 4 straight games and inch their way closer to take the lead from the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. The Reds as a favorite have won close to 67% of their games, taking 18 out of 27. There’s good value in backing the Reds today.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 21, 2023 )
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/-130 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Cubs and Cardinals face each other again on Friday afternoon, playing under the sun at Wrigley Field. The Cardinals have been hot lately, especially with their bats, and they won comfortably on Thursday night, 7-2. The Cubs have been scoring a lot lately too, though, and we think they have a substantial pitching advantage in this one. The Cubs will be starting Justin Steele, who had a terrific first half. His ERA is still below 3.00 despite a bad outing last week against the Red Sox in which he gave up 6 runs. Steele beat the Cardinals in London a month ago, holding them to just 1 run in an offense-friendly park. He should turn in another good performance today. We are less confident when it comes to Jack Flaherty. He has been the picture of inconsistency this season, and it is hard to know what to make of him. We trust Steele, and the Cubs’ offense ought to get back on track, so we are going to take the home team.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-160 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Tampa Bay is 55-28 SU as favorites and 34-14 SU as home favorites. It's 17-10 vs. AL East competition this season. These teams have been on opposite trajectories lately, but TB will defend its home turf tomorrow. Eflin gave up a season-high five runs in his last start, but his body of work makes a more compelling case than an off-performance against KC. He'll bounce back in a big way vs. a primetime opponent in Baltimore, holding it to two or fewer runs, a feat he has achieved in ten games this season. In his last start against the Rays, Bradish benefitted from early run support that allowed him to pitch with less pressure on him. We don't expect that to be the case on Friday. The Orioles' offense, scoring 5.6 runs per game in July, is bound to cool off soon. The Rays' offense, averaging 3.3 runs this month, is overdue for a breakthrough performance. We believe it will happen against Bradish, who gave up 16 hits and 11 runs in his two starts (9.1 IP) vs. TB last season.
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Bet: Kansas City Royals +1.5 RL/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Yes, the Yankees should win this game. However, they haven't shown enough lately, especially at the plate, to think that this will be a piece of cake. Even against one of MLB's worst teams. The Royals just faced the Tigers four times, another terrible offense, and their only loss against the run line was because they were shut out. Alec Marsh may give up a couple of homers but probably won't face much trouble otherwise. That keeps the Royals in the game, and if they don't win they're at least one swing away in the end.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 20, 2023 )
San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Padres have been a major disappointment as we approach 100 games into the MLB year. They have been at or below the .500 mark for most of the year. Blake Snell has been one of the bright spots. Snell has not been scored upon since the first inning of a June 28 game against the Pirates and hasn't given up more than two runs in a start since May 25, posting an otherworldly 0.62 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 91:25 K: BB in 58 innings over that latter stretch while going 5-1. I believe he pitches well again, but his dominant stretch will end facing an elite Blue Jays lineup. Their .745 team OPS is sure to rise as Vladimir Guerrero breaks out of his early season homer drought. Look for him and the Jays to finally tag Snell with some runs and Bassitt to coast against a Padres team ranked 24th in team batting average.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Milwaukee came through for us last night and we will use them in this spot as a slight underdog with its ace going. The Brewers had won four straight games prior to Tuesday as they remain in first place in the National League Central by 2.5 games over Cincinnati. They have been on a solid run, going 18-8 over their last 26 games. The Phillies had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss on Wednesday and have too have been on a long-term heater as they are 27-11 over their last 38 games and have taken over second place in the National League East, albeit 9.5 games back. They are third in the Wild Card Standings, however. Corbin Burnes is not having a Cy Young type season but he has been great with a 3.73 ERA despite a pair of blowups and take those out and his ERA drops to 2.94 to go along with a 1.11 WHIP. He has tossed three straight quality outings including six shutout innings against the Reds last time out where he recorded a season-high 13 strikeouts. Taijuan Walker has no doubt been the surprise of the Phillies rotation as he has posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 19 starts and he has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Philadelphia has won his last seven outings and we play it contrarian going against that streak today.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Play released for July 19, 2023 )
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/+155 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Phillies have won seven of their last 10 games and three of their last four home games. Even though they are playing well offensively and scored 22 runs in their last three home games, expect them to struggle offensively in this game because Milwaukee’s pitchers have been dominant on the mound, giving up only three runs in their last four games in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four games. With Milwaukee’s bullpen not giving up a run in three of their last four games, they will keep Philadelphia’s offense in check. The Brewers have won six of their last seven games and seven of their last eight road games. They haven’t played particularly well during their run and scored only eight runs in their last three road games. But, they will play well enough in this game because Sanchez has been shaky on the mound in recent starts, especially at home where he has given up eight runs in his last three starts. With Philadelphia’s bullpen also struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game.
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Cincinnati lost the completion of the suspended game from Monday 4-2 in extra innings and then lost the scheduled Tuesday game 11-10 as it blew a pair of multi-run leads. The Reds have now lost six straight games to fall 2.5 games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central. San Francisco has been making a move in the National League West as it has won seven straight games to move into second place, a game and a half behind the Dodgers. This comes after a 2-9 slide where the offense could do nothing and even with the winning streak, still remains inconsistent. Ross Stripling goes for San Francisco and he is making progress after a month and a half off as he has made three starts but has been limited to a combined 10.1 innings and while he has gone longer each time out, he will still not be fully stretched out. Graham Ashcraft is making his second start since the All Star break and he has been on a solid run going back as he has allowed only one run in each of his last three outings, all of which have resulted in quality starts. This includes two starts at home where he was struggling before those. In 34 games, Elly De La Cruz has four home runs with a .795 OPS and has given the Reds a major spark. That will persist Wednesday and they will gut out a home win.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 18, 2023 )
San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bet: San Diego Padres ML/-125 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Padres head north of the border on Tuesday looking to snap a 3-game losing streak. They turn to RHP Joe Musgrove, who enters with an 8-2 record, 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 79 1/3 innings this season. He has posted 6 straight quality starts including 3 starts (and wins) against American League foes. And while things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for the Padres this season, San Diego has racked up 5 consecutive inter-league victories, while going 8-2 in the last 10 against the AL. The only concern is that the Padres have won just once in their last 5 road outings. The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak and have won 8 of their last 9 overall to get back into the mix in the American League East Division race. The Jays are also 26-18 at home this season. However, it’s hard to overlook how poor RHP Alek Manoah has been this season. He is 2-7 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. While he allowed just 1 run, 5 hits and no walks with 8 strikeouts across 6 innings in his return after a month-long banishment to the minors, that win was against the lowly Detroit Tigers and he’ll get a much bigger test against the high-octane Padres offense. Better odds at home for the better team who is on a 4-game win streak and have won 8 of their last 9 overall?! The odds are a clear indicator that the oddsmakers want you to bet on the Blue Jays, and this is another factor why we love San Diego Padres to win today.
MLB Underdog Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for July 17, 2023 )
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Washington Nationals ML/+123 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Nationals have hit fairly well on the road (.257 BA/.321 OBP/.398 SLG/.719 OPS) and vs. left-handed pitchers (.279/.337/.437/.774) this season. Smyly has been too inconsistent to back at -140 to -150 odds, as he's given up 14 runs in his last three outings (11.1 IP) and nine long balls in his last seven starts. In his first ten starts, he surrendered four or more runs just once, but he's had four outings with four-plus earned runs in his last eight. The Cubs aren't off to a hot start to July, slashing .239/.308/.374/.682 in their first 11 games of the month. Gore has had a lot of rest recently and should capitalize on that extra time off on Monday. He's held 12 of his 18 opponents to three or fewer runs, limiting seven of those clubs to one or zero runs. While Chicago scored four runs against him on May 1, we believe he'll get the better of the Cubbies in the rematch. There is significant betting value on the Nationals to win straight-up on Monday night. Take Washington Nationals as our MLB Underdog Game of the Year No Limit Play.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 16, 2023 )
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Bet: Seattle Mariners -1.5 RL/+125 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Detroit took the opening game of this series but Olson hasn’t thrown a ton of innings lately, which makes one wonder how deep he’ll be able to go in the game. Moving him to the bullpen was a bit of a strange move by the Tigers, even with the recent returns of Rodriguez and Matt Manning to the rotation. Miller missed his last couple of turns before the All-Star break as he went on the IL with a blister on his middle finger after that start against Tampa Bay. The Mariners are the better team when you get down to it and their hitters have to start making contact. Look for Seattle to rebound in this contest as they find a way to earn the home win in this contest as Miller handcuffs the Tigers again.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 15, 2023 )
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers ML/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Taking the Dodgers to win this game for a couple of reasons. Getting above average value on their money line this game given the Mets struggles on the season and while they do have Kodai Senga on the bump, it is more of a question of if they will be able to produce offensively. The Dodgers run out a quality arm of their own in Tony Gonsolin, a former Cy Young contender, who should pose problems for a Mets offense that is lacking an identity. Expect the Dodgers to do just enough on offense and defense to pull this game out in what should be a good team win as they are playing well and contending for playoffs, while the Mets are doing neither.
MLB No Limit Play Game of the Month ( Play released for July 14, 2023 )
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Bet: Houston Astros ML/+135 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Ohtani hasn't pitched since July 4th as the Angels rested their all-star ace as he recovered from a blister. Ohtani is also 0-2 in his two starts against the Astros this year already and is just 3-5 lifetime vs. the Astros. Houston comes into this game just two games out of first place and will be backed by Valdez, who looked like he was back to full strength in his last outing vs. Seattle. Houston is 5-2 this season against the Angels and faces an Angels team that is as banged up as any team in baseball. The Angels will be without Trout, Drury, and Neto for sure in this game and won't know until game time if Rendon and Trout's replacement, Adell, will be ready to go. The Angels are 0-4 since Trout went down with his wrist injury on the 4th of July. Without Trout, Ohtani will certainly be pitched even more carefully by Valdez in this game. In his career, Ohtani is hitting just .129 against Valdez with just four hits in 31 at-bats including one home run. Look for the Astros to start the second half with a win over Ohtani and the Angels.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 25, 2023 )
Gonzaga vs. UConn
Bet: UConn -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Teams familiar with making deep March Madness runs clash in a West Region Elite Eight matchup when the fourth-seeded Connecticut Huskies take on the third-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs on Saturday in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are led by junior forward Adama Sanogo, who scored 18 points and grabbed eight rebounds in Thursday's win over Arkansas. He has been red hot of late, scoring 24 points and grabbing eight boards in a 70-55 win over Saint Mary's on Sunday. He registered a double-double in the first-round 87-63 win over Iona, scoring 28 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. In 36 games, all starts, Sanogo is averaging 17.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 26.6 minutes of action. Sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins has been dominant in the NCAA Tournament. He has reached double figures in all three tournament games, including a 24-point, three-assist and two-rebound performance against Arkansas. He has scored in double figures in four of the past five games and in 28 of 34 games, all starts. For the year, he is averaging 16.1 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 29.4 minutes. While UConn made easy work of Arkansas, beating the Razorbacks 88-65 in Las Vegas on Thursday night, Gonzaga erased a 13-point halftime deficit to beat the Bruins 79-76 thanks to a stretch that saw UCLA not score a field goal for more than 10 minutes in the second half, talk about being extremely lucky, but that luck will run out against UConn. Take UConn as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 18, 2023 )
Tennessee vs Duke
Bet: Duke ML/-150 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
The No. 5 seed Duke Blue Devils (27-8) are favored by 3 points against the No. 4 seed Tennessee Volunteers (24-10) for their NCAA Tournament matchup on Saturday but we will take no risk and simply bet the moneyline in this game, as we are absolutely sure Duke will win this game, and we will hammer this game REALLY BIG. Blue Devils ranks 23rd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (30.6%) with that number dropping to 27.9% over their last three games. Duke is one of the best teams in the country at guarding on the permitter. It doesn't force a ton of mistakes, but it's good a harassing outside shooters and then cleaning up the rebounds. Red hot, they've been hitting everything over their fantastic ten-game winning streak. They're making a ton of free throws, and they're doing a tremendous job of moving the ball around. Duke is one of the hottest teams in the country with its young talent seeming to gel at the right time. The Blue Devils have won 10 in a row and have covered the spread in their last 5 contests. They looked terrific during the ACC Conference Tournament, hammering a good Pitt team by 27 points in the quarterfinals, beating Miami 85-78 in the semis, and defeating Virginia 59-49 in the finals. ACC Freshman of the Year Kyle Filipowski leads Duke with 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, while point guard Jeremy Roach provides a much-needed veteran presence with 13.3 points and 3.1 assists per game. As a 6 points favorite, Duke completely dismantled Oral Roberts 74-51 in their last match, showing no signs of slowing down their hot streak. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These are 2 teams going in complete different directions, in their last 10 games, Tennessee has a Straight Up record of 5 wins and 5 losses and against-the-spread record of 4 wins, 6 losses. Also, they`ve bearly beat Louisiana 58-55 while being a huge 11.5 points favorite. Tennessee is also 0-6 ATS and SU in their last 6 road games, while being favorite in 3 of those games. In fact, Tennessee has just 1 quality win in their last 13 games and that was a home game on February 15 against Alabama, and during these 13 games they`ve went 4-9 ATS, winning SU just 6 games against musch lesser teams, and they`ve been favorite in all 6 games: 9.5 points, 3 points ( vs Alabama ), 23.5 points, 5.5 points, 12 points, 11.5 points. To make things even worse, the last road win for Tenessee when they are playing as an underdog, come 3 years ago, on March 3, 2020. Take Duke as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 8, 2023 )
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Bet: Colorado State -2/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Push
The Rams have won three of their last five games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they’re playing well at the moment, scoring 74 points per game in their last three games while making over 51 percent of their shots. They also took advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making 78 percent of their free throws during that span. They do a good job rebounding the ball and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Bulldogs a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Bulldogs struggled in recent games, giving up 74 points or more in four straight road games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Rams in this game. The Bulldogs have lost five of their last seven games and seven of their last road games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 65 points per game. Their ball movement isn’t very good on the road and they don’t rebound the ball as well, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Rams. It is very hard to beat a team three times in a season but not in this case, and how the Rams have played against the Bulldogs this season it makes it easier. They crushed Fresno State at home and then at the end of the season beat them on the road and in both games only gave up 57 points. The Bulldogs did light it up in their last game but they were at home and out of conference facing a team that is nine games under .500. Colorado State will play well on both sides of the floor, especially on the defensive end, and like the two games in the regular season they will get the win and cover the spread. Colorado State is 12-1 ATS since February 11, 2017 against Fresno State. Colorado State is 9-0 SU since January 26, 2019 against Fresno State. Take Colorado State as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 4, 2023 )
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Bet: Texas A&M -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
We think Texas A&M is going to come out fired up as if it has a chance to win the conference title. Motivations will be different on the court Saturday afternoon. Alabama has the regular season title locked up for the SEC, and likely has a number 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome of this game. Texas A&M is trying to improve their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies are currently projected as an 8-seed for the tournament, which is relatively low for the 2nd place team in the SEC. The Aggies can really improve their résumé with a win here. Alabama has had some close games lately, they went to overtime with Auburn and only beat Arkansas by 3. Alabama has only covered once in its last five games, and it is in a letdown spot after clinching the conference title earlier in the week. The Crimson Tide needed overtime to get past their rivals, making it an even more emotional game for a team that is still dealing with some outside drama caused by the Miller incident. Texas A&M has been excellent lately, they have covered 7 of their last 8, and Wade Taylor IV has been on a scoring tear. Emotions will be high for senior night, and Texas A&M will come out on top. Texas A&M is 21-5 ATS since 1998 when playing as a home underdog of 3 points or less, and they have not lost back to back games ATS in this situation since 1998. Texas A&M is 21-1 SU at home since February 15, 2022, also going 13-4 ATS during that winning streak. Texas A&M is 6-1 SU at home vs Alabama since 1998. Alabama has won just 3 games since 1997 when they are just a 1 point road favorite. Take Texas A&M as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
Important note: the analysis was made yesterday when Texas A&M was a 1 point underdog ( some clients received the play earlier ) , but the play is still valid, and we are still going to take Texas A&M -1.5.
NCAAB Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 7, 2023 )
Loyola-Chicago vs. St. Joseph`s
Bet: St. Joseph`s -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Saint Joseph’s handled Loyola-Chicago in both games this year, smoking the Ramblers 86-55 back on January 14th, and beating them again on February 8th by a score of 83-71. They are in for a similar story this time around. To be frank, Loyola was very bad this season, going just 4-14 in conference play and losing six of their final eight games. Specifically, it’s been the defense that’s hindered them. This unit is allowing opponents to hit 45.2% of their shots, making them the 252nd-best team in defensive shooting. In terms of efficiency, the Ramblers are 261st, giving up 109.6 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks will once again take full advantage of the Ramblers' propensity to turn the ball over, averaging 17 turnovers per game against St. Joe's and last in the conference in turnovers. St. Joe’s has capitalized on the rare opportunity to play bully in conference play, and they will complete the trifecta. Despite the final results down the stretch, Erik Reynolds II and Lynn Greer III looked a lot like an infamous SJU backcourt we all remember in Jameer Nelson and Delonte West offensively. SJU plays through the strength of their backcourt, and they’re led by Erik Reynolds II. The sophomore guard closed the season with back-to-back 33-point outings, and he leads SJU in scoring at 19.4 ppg. Second-year guard Lynn Greer III has lived up to his father’s name down the stretch, and after scoring 20 points or more in five of the last seven games, he’s posting a nice line of 12.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and a team-lead 4.0 apg. The Hawks outscored the Ramblers by a total of 43 points in their 2 wins this season. The Hawks' dynamic duo of Erik Reynolds II and Lynn Greer III led the way in both wins. Reynolds averaged 19 points per game in the two wins while Greer added 17 points per game. Take St. Joseph`s as our NCAAB Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 2, 2023 )
Lafayette vs. Lehigh
Bet: Lehigh -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
The Lehigh Mountain Hawks are averaging 71.1 points ( 3rd best among Patriot League Teams ) on 44.6 percent shooting and allowing 68.9 points on 42.8 percent shooting. Also, Lehigh is shooting 74% from the free throw line (270/364) this season, which is best among Patriot League Teams. Keith Higgins Jr. is averaging 14.7 points and 2 assists, while Evan Taylor is averaging 14.7 points and 6.6 rebounds. Tyler Whitney-Sidney is the third double-digit scorer and Jakob Alamudun is grabbing 3 rebounds. The Lehigh Mountain Hawks are shooting 36.6 percent from beyond the arc and 74.4 percent from the free throw line. The Lehigh Mountain Hawks are allowing 31.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 30.6 rebounds per game. On the other hand, Lafayette finished at 9-22 after losing to Bucknell on the road. The Leopards let the Bison pull away in the second half, and they’d fall by ten, 75-65. Lafayette is scoring only 60.5 points per game, while allowing 64.6 ppg, and shooting 40.2% from the field. The Lafayette Leopards have been a hard time to get behind given their constant losses, and they’re even worse right now, losing their last 5 games by an average of 4.6 points. Lafayette loses as underdogs by an average of 5.6 points. Lafayette are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Lehigh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Lehigh is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Lehigh has a good chance to win this conference tournament, and their cross-town rivals will serve as a nice spot to start. Lafayette has already fallen to the Mountain Hawks twice, and if they don’t have veteran guard CJ Fulton in this contest, they’ll certainly have huge trouble with the opposing backcourt. Lehigh is better on both sides of the ball and will overwhelm one of the worst teams in the conference. Take Lehigh as our NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 1, 2023 )
Xavier vs. Providence
Bet: Providence -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
After booming wins against the Creighton Bluejays and the Villanova Wildcats – both at home – the Friars ran into a brick wall last Wednesday in the form of the UConn Huskies, as they absorbed an 87-69 road loss. Providence’s offense got effectively shut down by the Huskies, with the Friars shooting just 41.5 percent from the field. But it was really in the rebounding battle where Providence got hurt by the Huskies, who had 40 rebounds to only 20 by the Friars. That likely won’t be an issue for Providence this Wednesday though. For one the Friars outrebounded the Musketeers in the previous encounter, 44-40. Providence, which beat the lowly Georgetown Hoyas as expected on Sunday on the road by 20 points (88-68), also has plenty of capable wing guys, who can break down Xavier’s defense again. Bryce Hopkins, Devin Carter, and Noah Locke combined for 58 points in the loss to Xavier earlier in February, but that was a really close loss at Xavier which needed overtime to win 85-83, but they are playing at home this time and Providence feeds off the energy of its home crowd. Also, the good news for Providence is that they won't have to face Zach Freemantle as he is still bothered by his foot injury. He was a top producer, scoring 15.2 points per game while leading the way on the glass with 8.1 rebounds per contest. Furthermore, Xavier gives up too many points and the defensive stats are poor. They rank 313th in three-point defense and Providence is above average from deep. They connected on 45% of their threes in the first meeting against Xavier. Providence has a slight rebounding advantage and that was on display in the meeting earlier this month where they out-rebounded Xavier. Providence is just too tough at home this season and look for them to get to 16-0 in their home gym. Providence is 29-1 SU since 2021 in their last 30 home games, and their only loss during that winning streak came when they`ve actually been an underdog. Providence is 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS since 2019 when playing as a home favorite of 4 points or less. Providence is 11-2 ATS since 2017 when playing against Xavier, winning 6 straight ATS games in this series. Xavier has won only 3 games since 1996 when playing in March as a road underdog, also going 0-8 SU in this situation since 2013. Take Providence as our NCAAB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 24, 2023 )
South Alabama vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Bet: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -4/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
On Friday, the South Alabama Jaguars visit the Cajundome in Lafayette, Louisiana to play the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in a Sun Belt Conference clash. South Alabama improved to 16-14 overall and 9-8 in Sun Belt play following its 76-67 victory over Texas State on Wednesday. Isaiah Moore was the leading scorer for South Alabama with 22 points. The Jaguars have won each of their last five. Isaiah Moore is leading South Alabama in scoring and assists with averages of 18.3 points and 4.6 assists per game, while Kevin Samuel is the second leading scorer and the leading rebounder with averages of 10.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. South Alabama has only two players averaging double figures in scoring. Louisiana looks for its second consecutive victory on Friday when hosting South Alabama. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 22-7 overall and 12-5 in Sun Belt play following their 85-74 victory over Arkansas State on Wednesday. Jordan Brown was the leading scorer for Louisiana with 24 points. Jordan Brown is leading Louisiana in scoring and rebounding with averages of 19.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, while Themus Fulks is the leader in assists with an average of 6.2 assists per game. Louisiana has three players averaging double figures in scoring and as a team is scoring an average of 79.3 points per game, while shooting 48.5% overall and 38.4% from 3-point territory. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns has a 14 home game winning streak dating back to February 19, 2022 and they are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games when playing as a favorite of 4 points or less. Take Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns as our NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 23, 2023 )
Cal Baptist vs. Sam Houston
Bet: Sam Houston -6/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Sam Houston Bearkats (20-6, 10-4 WAC) will attempt to continue a three-game winning streak when they host the Cal Baptist Lancers (15-12, 7-7 WAC) on Thursday, February 23, 2023 at Bernard Johnson Coliseum. The Bearkats are a 6-point favorite against the Lancers when the Bearkats and the Lancers meet. Sam Houston managed to go 14-5 across their first 19 outings of the year. The Bearkats are 6-1 in their last seven with wins over UTRGV, Seattle, UTRGV again, Abilene Christian, TX-Arlington and Tarleton State. Matched up against Tarleton State on Saturday, the Bearkats took a 34-27 lead into the locker room and ended up winning 64-59 as a 2.5 point road favorite. Donte Powers and Cameron Huefner each posted 20 points to lead the way. California Baptist’s leading scorer this season is Taran Armstrong, who is averaging 11.7 points per contest. So far, Armstrong has accounted for 15.87% of the team’s scoring. In addition, he is contributing 4.63 rebounds per game and 4.93 assists. Riley Battin is the second leading scorer for the Lancers, averaging 9.74 points per game. Between him and Battin, they are accounting for 29.1% of the team’s scoring. Offensive production has been hard to come by for California Baptist this season, as they are currently ranked 196th in college basketball at 71.0 points per game. A major reason for low scoring totals is the fact that they have played at a below average pace, and have struggled to knock down outside shots. As a team, the Lancers’ 3-point shooting percentage sits at just 33.2%, placing them 312th in the NCAA. So far this season, Sam Houston State has played 11 games at home, sitting with a record of 10-1. The Bearkats’ are sitting with a betting line that is -6 points in their favor. For the season, Sam Houston State has been favored to win in 15 games, sitting with a mark of 13-2. One trend that we feel strongly about is the fact that Sam Houston State has historically performed well against the spread in this situation, they are 13-2 ATS since December 19, 2020 when playing as a favorite of 6 points or less. Also, these 2 teams have met 2 times last year, and none of those meetings ended up well for Cal Baptist. In their first meeting Cal Baptist lost 68-73 playing as a 1 point home underdog, and in their second meeting, San Houston completely crushed Cal Baptist, winning by 30 points ( 35-65 ) playing as a 3.5 points home favorite. We don`t expect another 30 points win this time, but we see San Houston winning again by double digits. Take Sam Houston as our NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 22, 2023 )
Maine vs. New Hampshire
Bet: New Hampshire -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
America East foes square off when the New Hampshire Wildcats (12-13, 7-6 America East) host the Maine Black Bears (11-15, 5-8 America East) at Lundholm Gymnasium, beginning at 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, February 22, 2023. The Maine Black Bears are averaging 69.3 points on 46.4 percent shooting and allowing 69.3 points on 46.2 percent shooting. Gedi Juozapaitis is averaging 15.1 points and 1.9 assists, while Kellen Tynes is averaging 14.3 points and 4.4 rebounds. Peter Filipovity is grabbing 6 rebounds and Kristians Feierbergs is dishing 0.8 assists. The Maine Black Bears are shooting 34.9 percent from beyond the arc and 74 percent from the free throw line. The Maine Black Bears are allowing 34.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 26.8 rebounds per game. The New Hampshire Wildcats are averaging 66.9 points on 39.9 percent shooting and allowing 66.6 points on 42.5 percent shooting. Clarence O. Daniels II is averaging 15.4 points and 10.6 rebounds, while Nick Johnson is averaging 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds. Kyree Brown is the third double-digit scorer and Matt Herasme is dishing 2 assists. The New Hampshire Wildcats are shooting 34.9 percent from beyond the arc and 68.8 percent from the free throw line. The New Hampshire Wildcats are allowing 30.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34 rebounds per game. The New Hampshire Wildcats are not in the best shape at the moment, but they have been the better team this season, and being at home gives them the edge. Also, lets not forget that New Hampshire as a 3.5 points underdog already beat Maine on the road by 13 points on January 11, 2023. New Hampshire is also 13-4 SU vs Maine since 2015, winning the last 7 home games in this series too. The Maine Black Bears lose on the road by an average of 9.6 points, while New Hampshire wins at home by an average of 10.3 points. Take New Hampshire as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 21, 2023 )
Indiana vs. Michigan State
Bet: Michigan State -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Indiana has been great at home this season, losing only once against Northwestern. However, the Hoosiers rank 359th among the 363 teams in Haslametrics’ Away from Home metric. This game is obviously played at Michigan State, so the Spartans will have a strong advantage before the ball is even tipped. From a matchup perspective, Michigan State has the defense to combat Indiana’s post-centric offense. Per Synergy, Indiana plays through post-ups at the sixth-highest rate in the country, mostly through Trayce Jackson-Davis. On the other side, Michigan State is strong in post defense, ranking in the 87th percentile. There’s been no stopping Jackson-Davis lately, but the key for the Spartans will be to not let the other Hoosiers shoot 9/15 from beyond the arc. Tom Izzo's been in control of this Spartans program for so long that we`ve grown accustomed to the thinking that he'll have his guys bounce back, especially after a rough defensive outing. This year it's been no different, as Michigan State is 2-0 SU in games following an outing where the Spartans allowed 80+ points. Both of those wins came against decent teams (Oregon, Iowa), and the fact that Michigan State is also 6-3 ATS this year when coming off a loss and covering the spread by an average of 3.3 points in those games doesn't hurt either. Simply put, we can't completely trust Indiana to give the scoring support to Trace Jackson-Davis when they are on the road. The Hoosiers haven't scored more than 62 points in any of their past four road games overall and went 1-3 ATS in the process. Michigan State is 22-2 SU at home since 1996 vs Indiana. Take Michigan State as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 20, 2023 )
Kansas vs. TCU
Bet: Kansas moneyline/+100 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand )
We are predicting that the Jayhawks will win straight-up on Monday, riding the momentum generated in their second-half beatdown of Baylor on Saturday. Kansas is 15th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency, the type of team you can count on this time of the season. TCU is also solid on both ends of the floor but a little less consistent offensively. If it gets into a higher-scoring game, it's at a disadvantage with its poor three-point shooting percentage (29.2%) and free-throw percentage (69.9%). The Horned Frogs have been slipping, and one win over Oklahoma State doesn't change that. TCU has not won back-to-back games when playing as a 2 points home favorite or less since 1997, and Kansas is 26-4 SU since 1997 vs TCU. With the spread at just 2 points, bet on the Jayhawks to win as money line underdogs with plus odds. Take Kansas as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 18, 2023 )
Villanova Wildcats vs. Providence Friars
Bet: Providence Friars -4/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Villanova Wildcats and the Providence Friars will meet on Saturday for a Big East Conference game. Villanova is having a down season under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune with just a 13-13 overall record. The Wildcats have won 3 straight games, beating DePaul, Seton Hall and Butler, but will be in for a test in this matchup. Those were much-needed wins for Villanova, but this team has yet to prove it can beat good teams away from home. This should be a close conference game, but the spread seems too low for a Providence team that has been dominant at home. The Friars are having another great season and should continue their quest at back-to-back Big East titles with a win against Villanova. The Friars are the better team and are an undefeated 14-0 on their home floor. In their first matchup, Providence beat Villanova 70-65 on the road, and we expect a similar result as they return home. Providence’s offense should be the difference-maker this time. Their offense is averaging 78.6 points per game while Villanova’s offense is averaging just 69.4 points per game. Providence’s offense is ranked #21 in adjusted efficiency and that should be on full display on their home court. Providence has shown it is one of the best teams in the conference and the Friars are simply too good at home to bet against today. Take Providence Friars as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 17, 2023 )
Purdue vs. Maryland
Bet: Maryland moneyline /+100 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Is this a revenge game for Maryland? Of course it is, but there are a lot of revenge games against Purdue. However, Maryland defended the three-point shot (2-of-13) extremely well and held Purdue to just 38% shooting in the first mathcup. They also forced 13 turnovers with their pressure defense and that will be the case again on Thursday night in front of a very raucous crowd in College Park. The Terps will shoot better at home and they normally do, making 46.4% of their shots at Xfinity Center compared to 44.1% overall. The Maryland Terrapins are averaging 70.8 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 62.8 points on 41.7 percent shooting. Jahmir Young is averaging 16.2 points and 4.8 rebounds, while Donta Scott is averaging 12 points and 6.2 rebounds. Hakim Hart is the third double-digit scorer and Julian Reese is grabbing 6.4 rebounds. The Maryland Terrapins are shooting 30.4 percent from beyond the arc and 74.1 percent from the free throw line. The Maryland Terrapins are allowing 31.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 32 rebounds per game. The Purdue Boilermakers are going to be favored for obvious reasons, but Maryland is playing some of its best ball of the season, it’s a talented team and playing in Maryland is never easy. The Terps win at home by an average of 12.4 points and are 10-4 ATS. Expect a packed house and a motivated team, as a win here does wonders for the resume. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Maryland as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
Super Bowl Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 12, 2023 )
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs ML/+107 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
This line currently sits at +1.5 but we believe once WR`s JuJu Smith-Schuster and potentially Kadarius Toney are cleared to play this week, that this could close pick’em. It may be a closed-minded way to look at this game but KC is 16-3 and their three losses have been by a combined 10 points. They haven’t lost by more than four points all season. It’s difficult to fully evaluate this Eagles team, and especially their defense, based on them playing the single easiest schedule in the NFL. Even when the Eagles faced tough competition, they catch a break with Dak Prescott out in their first matchup against Dallas, Aaron Rodgers exiting in the middle of their matchup and Brock Purdy getting injured against San Francisco in the NFC title game. The Eagles pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL in EPA per drop back allowed. Mahomes is #1 in the NFL among QBs in EPA per drop back. The Eagles have only faced two QBs ranked in the top 10 in EPA this season (Dak #7 and Goff #8). Dak posted a +0.27 EPA per drop back with a 59% success rate against Philly. That was Dak’s 5th best EPA and success rate out of 12 regular season games this season. Goff posted a +0.036 EPA and 39% success rate against the Eagles defense, which ranks as his 4th worst EPA and 2nd worst success rate of the season. They also faced #12 ranked Trevor Lawrence but even that game was played in a monsoon. There is no doubting that the Eagles defense is talented, with the 2nd best pressure rate defense in the NFL and two top notch CBs in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. But are they really the best pass defense in the NFL?! Likely not. Mahomes has played seven games (SF, Den 2x, LAC 2x and Cincinnati 2x) against top 10 EPA pass defenses. KC went 6-1 in those games and produced an EPA per drop back of +0.277, equivalent to the 2nd best QB in the NFL for a full season. To us the Broncos defense is the closest comparison to the Eagles and Mahomes threw for 320+ in both games. The Eagles weakness on defense is definitely their LB corps and we don’t see them being able to slow down Travis Kelce over the middle of the field. If Jalen Hurts was mid season Hurts and not dealing with a bad shoulder, we would likely not release a play on the Super Bowl. But since he’s been back, he has posted a poor 42% success rate and -3.0 completion percentage over expected. He has routinely missed throws down the field and has only thrown for 6.0 yards per attempt. That is a far cry from his pre injury performance and he has not proven lately that he could be relied on to make big throws when needed in a close game. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL this season (among 33 quarterbacks with at least 250 drop backs, including the playoffs) in Passing NEP per drop back (0.31), more than five times better than the NFL average of 0.06. When you adjust every single drop back these two had against the opponent faced, Mahomes has accrued 0.25 Passing NEP per drop back over expectation. Put another way, if he played to opponent level on every pass, he'd have had a league-average output of 0.06. He simply dominated once accounting for opponents. If the Chiefs get ahead early, it may be lights out. The Philadelphia Eagles have never beaten a Andy Reid team when he`s been the Head coach. The Chiefs even beat Philly the year the Eagles won the SuperBowl. Lastly, the coaching playoff experience may be important here, Andy Reid has 37 games while Nick Sirianni only 3. Take Kansas as our Super Bowl Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 29, 2023 )
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Kansas City Chiefs will have revenge on their minds in this exact spot against the Bengals last year where they squandered an 11-point halftime lead, later losing in overtime. The Chiefs are no strangers to this spot. After going up 21-3 in the 2022 AFC Championship, the Chiefs allowed the Bengals to force overtime and later watched an Evan McPherson field goal shatter their Super Bowl hopes. They’ll have an extra sense of motivation heading into this one as they once again have home-field advantage over the visiting Bengals. The way to attack Cincinnati’s offensive line is to get it in third-and-longs where Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can get creative with blitzes and pressures. Kansas needs to get there first, though and that will have to start with winning first and second downs while stopping Mixon and Perine. On the Chiefs’ side, the team’s great offensive advantage this season, compared to the offense that lost in the AFC Championship to these Bengals, is greater versatility. If Cincinnati wants to drop eight into coverage as it did a year ago, Kansas has more of a power game it can utilize. Running back Isiah Pacheco brings a different edge on those types of carries, while the Chiefs also have relied heavier on under-center and multiple-tight-end setups this season that provide a more physical look if defenses try to play with smaller personnel. Kansas’s offensive linemen appeared motivated to elevate their game to help out Mahomes against Jacksonville, getting downhill as Pacheco averaged 7.9 yards per carry. There’s one more wild card: Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones. Way back in June, unprompted, Jones spoke about his motivation for the season being last year’s AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead. If Jones had brought down Burrow on a couple of potential sacks like he felt he should have, he believed the final result would’ve been different. On paper, this is a huge mismatch. Cincinnati’s offensive line should struggle to block Jones if he’s his usual self. Ultimately, we don’t believe Cincinnati has some hex on Kansas by winning three straight, we actually believe Kansas will be more motivated than ever to beat Cincinnati. Some randomness can easily explain that, and it’s not like the Bengals have dominated the Chiefs. Kansas held at least a 75% win probability chance at some point in the fourth quarter of each of those three losses. We see Chiefs coach Andy Reid working around Mahomes’ ankle limitations with an intelligent game plan, and Mahomes performing above expectations in what’s likely to be a legacy game for him. Kansas’s run game should be effective, and we think Jones will come through in the game he previously promised he would. The Chiefs know where the Bengals will attack them and how to slow them down, they need to contain Mixon, Chase and Higgins above all else. The Chiers are more unpredictable in their usage of Kelce's complementary weapons, with Kadarius Toney and Jerick McKinnon both capable of making a game-changing play with one touch. Mahomes also picks good spots to use JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at wideout, and he hasn't been afraid to dig deep in four-wide or two-tight sets. Take Kansas City Chiefs as our NFL Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 22, 2023 )
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Bengals have been overlooked for much of the season so it's not surprising to see them as an underdog here. What is surprising is the point margin. Burrow has thrown for a 70% completion rate in his last three games and has five touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He protected the ball against Baltimore last week, avoiding any interceptions. Allen, however, has struggled with turnovers over his last three games. Allen is completing just 59% of his passes in that span while throwing eight touchdowns and throwing five interceptions. On the season, Buffalo is ranked just 15th in the NFL turnover differential while the Bengals are a solid fifth. While the Bengals offensive line issues are concerning, Burrow has experience dealing with such issues. Look for running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine to get a lot of short looks out of the backfield to protect Burrow. Allen is healthier than he's been since the beginning of the season but has struggled with turnovers. He now faces a Bengals defense that has 10 sacks in their last three games. Josh Allen often looked rattled by Miami’s blitz-heavy pass rush; he turned the ball over 3 times and took 7 sacks. And that was against a Dolphins defense that was pretty banged up. Despite the fact that Thompson was a 3rd-string quarterback who only averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and was 18 of 45, Buffalo barely managed to advance. The Bengals have arguably been playing the most consistent football in the NFL over the past couple of months, and they enter this one having won 9 games in a row. They aren’t getting nearly enough respect for a team that’s on a 9-game winning streak. The Bills had a really easy matchup in the first round, and just look at who they finished the regular season playing against. Their final 7 games came against the Patriots, Bears, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Lions and Browns. Miami was the only one of those teams who made the playoffs and the Bills have played just 2 teams that made the postseason since all the way back in Week 6. One of those was the Dolphins, whom they beat by 3 points, and they lost to the Vikings at home. Take Cincinnati as our NFL Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Teaser Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for January 14, 2023 )
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: 6.5 points teaser: Cincinnati Bengals -2 and San Francisco 49ers -2.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Lamar Jackson has not practiced in a month-plus since his Dec. 4 knee injury. It’s unclear if he’ll be available. His status as a potential free agent looms here. Jackson and the Ravens could have differing views on his status. The Bengals finished a best-in-the-AFC 12-4 ATS. Joe Burrow has completed 68.2% of his passes in his past five games, with 12 TD passes and just four picks. Talk to the paw.San Francisco is on a ten-game win streak and has covered seven of its past eight games. The 49ers will rely on a stout defense to win games in January, a tried-and-true formula for playoff success. SF has 30 takeaways, surrenders only 5.0 yards per play, and has held eight of its last ten opponents to under 20 points. The 49ers routinely rush the QB with only four players, dropping seven players in coverage. Their ability to get to the quarterback with fewer pass rushers is unmatched and primarily why they excel on the defensive side. The rookie Purdy is 5-0 as a starter and has excelled in the red zone, partially due to his fantastic supporting cast. Kittle has been on a tear over the past several weeks and is a matchup nightmare, especially for a Seahawks defense that's done a poor job defending tight ends. McCaffrey is questionable with a sore knee but practiced Wednesday and has been playing well despite the injury. In the past six games, he's accumulated 767 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on 128 touches. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and the Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC. Seattle is also 1-7 ATS in its last eight overall.
NFL Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 15, 2023 )
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Bet: Minnesota Vikings -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
The Giants played one of their best games of the season when these two first met, while the Vikings played one of their worst games. With all that said, the Vikings were still able to come away with the three-point win, and with the crowd likely to be much more lively in this one and Minnesota getting out of the gates quicker, grabbing the win will be easy. The Vikings know that winning the ground game battle is going to be key and with an early emphasis on running the ball, they should be able to control the clock much better than they did in the first meeting. Adding in their depth at receiver, playing this one as a shootout is going to be a massive advantage, especially given the lack of a passing attack for the Giants. Additionally, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Take Minnesota as our NFL Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Blowout Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 8, 2023 )
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -13.5/-115 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The NY Giants have clinched their playoff spot, but there’s still one more game in the regular season, and it comes against the Philadelphia Eagles. Rivalry or not, this won’t be the kind of matchup that everyone would have expected. While the Giants can’t move up or down seeding wise, the Eagles need to win to clinch the No. 1 seed. Ironically, the game between the two NFC East rivals means a lot more to Philadelphia than New York. The Eagles need this game badly to hold off the Cowboys and 49ers. Jalen Hurts is expected to return nearly fully healthy coming off his right shoulder injury. The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and will rest players under Brian Daboll, and that is the wise choice, because they should like the current opening playoff matchup vs. the Vikings. The Eagles are 13.5 point favorites in this one. Considering they’re going to have all their starters playing against the Giants backups that seems light. Given the circumstances this may end up being the biggest blowout in the NFL this season. Philadelphia will take care of home field with more of their regular 2022 play. Take Philadelphia as our NFL Blowout Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 2, 2023 )
Penn State vs Utah
Bet: Penn State +1/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Penn State comes into the game with only two losses — Ohio State and Michigan. They handled everyone else on their schedule pretty easily, but because of the two dominant teams in the conference, the Nittany Lions were largely overshadowed this season. They will be missing two key pieces for the game: star corner Joey Porter Jr and #1 wide receiver Parker Washington. Those are significant pieces, but the Nittany Lions can cover it. Utah comes into the game with three losses—the opener in the Swamp to Florida, and tough road losses at UCLA and Oregon. No shame in those losses either. Utah will be missing a few key pieces in the game. The Utes will be missing their top running back, Tavion Thomas, who had a late-season toe injury and is NFL-bound. They are also missing their top corner, Clark Phillips III, and maybe most significantly, tight end Dalton Kincaid, both NFL opt-outs. Kincaid in particular is the best receiving threat on the team and Cam Rising’s favorite target. We think the missing players hurt Utah more than they hurt Penn State. We also think Penn State has been undervalued all year while living in the shadow of Buckeyes and Wolverines. Penn State’s season was truly spectacular, as they not only finished ninth in the AP rankings, but they were also only defeated by Michigan and Ohio State, conference rivals who are playing in the national semifinals. The great Nittany Lions performance was basically supported by their good defense. Proof of this is that in their last four games they allowed only 40 total points, finishing the year ninth in the nation in average points conceded per game with just 18.0. More specifically, their forte was stopping the ground attack, where they finished 15th in the league with just 106.2 yards allowed per game. Penn State has an advantage, not only because of their good defensive performance, but also because they are experts on stopping the ground attack, precisely Utah’s forte. Take Penn State as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 1, 2023 )
Vikings vs. Packers
Bet: Packers -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Packers are fighting for their lives and have to win out to get in. Thus, expect them to throw their best at Minnesota, and it starts with Rodgers. He has a 64.8 percent completion rate with a 91.3 quarterback rating. Additionally, he also has passed for 3,331 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Jones has rushed 187 times for 962 yards and two touchdowns while catching 54 passes for 373 yards and five scores. Meanwhile, Dillon has rushed 165 times for 696 yards and six touchdowns while catching 28 passes for 206 yards. Lazard has 51 catches for 688 yards and five touchdowns, while Watson has 35 catches for 496 yards and seven touchdowns. However, Watson might not play this week after missing practice. Doubs has done well in limited action, with 39 catches for 405 yards and three touchdowns. The defense has played short-handed but are persevering. Significantly, Rasul Douglas has continued to excel, with 56 solo tackles, one sack and, four interceptions. The defense must show up and find ways to guard Jefferson to prevent the Vikings from moving the chains. Therefore, they must double-team him and force Cousins to throw elsewhere. With Kenny Clark and Jarran Reed, Green Bay should be able to exploit the Vikings' interior offensive line's struggles in pass protection. And the bottom line is that it's really hard to sweep a good divisional opponent. Once again, the team with the better record is an underdog on the road after Minnesota was an underdog in Detroit just three weeks ago. Cousins has had some tough games in the cold in his career, and we he will struggle once again this weekend. Green Bay is hot right now, and it's hard to bet against Rodgers in must-win games. Minnesota is 4-16 ATS since 1988 when playing on the road in January, and 2-9 ATS when playing as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 2016.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for December 31, 2022 )
Ohio State vs. Georgia
Bet: Georgia -6/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
Georgia will begin the College Football Playoff in the same stadium its season started: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This time the Bulldogs face Ohio State instead of Oregon. This number opened up at Georgia -6.5 and has held steady, avoiding the key number of 7 to this point. Georgia’s defense gave up the fewest touchdowns in the nation through the regular season, allowing just 13 through 12 games. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs quietly averaged nearly 40 points per game on offense with Heisman finalist quarterback Stetson Bennett leading the way. For all their dominance, Georgia has found themselves in some closer games than expected this year. But whenever UGA has needed a dominant performance, they’ve got it. Their opener against Oregon, their rivalry games against Auburn and Florida and their matchup with Tennessee all saw Georgia at their very best. We expect the same here. Ohio State’s defense has allowed over 29 points per game over their last 3 games. That’s a bad trend against the nation’s most efficient passer in Bennett. Add in tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington, who are matchup nightmares for opposing defenses, and it could be a tough night for the Buckeyes. The way Georgia slowed down Tennessee and wide receiver Jaylin Hyatt, will be similar to what they will do against the Buckeyes’ Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State’s injuries in the run game have affected their offense, but we are not sure they’d have success anyway against the best run defense in the nation. Georgia should slow the pace and grind Ohio State to a halt, much like they did against Tennessee. Ohio State is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record, while Georgia is 8-2 ATS in their last ten bowl games. Georgia can do a lot of the same things to Ohio State that Michigan did. The only difference is the Bulldogs will do that with the most talented roster in college football. Take Georgia as our NCAAF Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for December 29, 2022 )
Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Bet: Florida State -9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
This line has moved a point and a half since opening at -8 in favor of the Seminoles and, for good reason. Oklahoma will be without their two starting tackles against one of the country's premier pass rushes and the 4th ranked pass defense in the country. Florida State, meanwhile, has their full compliment of offensive weapons going up against, at best, a subpar Sooners defense. The Sooners' defense took a major hit losing Redmond in this matchup as he represents the Sooners biggest disruptor on defense. Jordan Travis looks like a strong candidate for Most Outstanding Player for this bowl game with his ability to throw and run the football. Travis may even get a key receiver back in Wright which will only strengthen Florida State's passing attack against a shaky Sooners' secondary. The Seminoles are stronger on both sides of the ball, and significantly so on defense. Florida States’ pass defense ranks third in the nation allowing just 159 yards per game, so it’s not like Gabriel and Mims will have a field day. Florida State also got defensive standouts in defensive end Jared Verse and safety Jammie Robinson to stay in school and play in this game. Florida State will also have an advantage in the run game with Trey Benson, who averages nearly seven yards per carry, against a bad Oklahoma run defense that allows 189 rushing yards per game. There is just too much firepower on both sides of the ball for Florida State. They have more continuity, and that familiarity will be enough for them to emerge victorious and escape with the -9.5 cover. Take Florida State as our NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Blowout Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for December 28, 2022 )
UCF vs. Duke
Bet: Duke -3/-125 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Duke is a team that, but for 16 points, is an undefeated team. They have a balanced offense and defense: Elko was a defensive coordinator and keeps defense top of mind, and it shows with their nationally ranked 24th-top defense. This was evident in the Wake Forest game, where Duke held a good Wake rushing game to 106 yards. Remember, Wake Forest was ranked #10 even at the end of October. This game would have been a different story if UCF was healthy and consistent at the quarterback slot. Plumee has a long-term hamstring injury and Castellanos will play a lot, or the offense will have to be reconfigured to allow for a low-mobility offense centered around QB. UCF is also questionable at defense, with Travis Williams out as defensive coordinator and a new coordinator for this game. The Tulane game was a harbinger of what will happen in this game: they will struggle under pressure against a good team. So many reasons to like Duke. Mike Elko has done a magnificent job in his 1st year, and we have to wonder what he and his staff can do with the extra practices. Elko is an excellent defensive coach. We know he'll be game planning for Plumlee, who will play. He has been banged up a lot and may not finish the game. Our issue with Plumlee is that while being a very good running QB, his passing accuracy is mediocre. He's also been broadcasting his intention to play baseball. He also has to put up with screaming Gus Malzahn. Malzahn is one of those coaches that players sometimes hate playing for, and makes them more nervous to make a mistake. UCF lost to Navy, got crushed in the AAC Championship and nearly lost a big lead to USF at the end of the season. The team looks discouraged and lost. UCF lost both their OC and DC before the bowl prep, along with 3 starters and the backup QB (who was a sometime starter). UCF ended the season poorly and the defense is also really poorly. Duke went 8-4, and even in their 4 losses, they were competitive. They should be able to take advantage of UCF with QB Riley Leonard's multi-talented skills. He's one of those guys that can drive a defense crazy scrambling, running, throwing deep and making a play out of nothing. We just have a sense that Duke is really motivated to play in a bowl game, and one close to home. Cold weather for the Florida boys. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games, and the Blue Devils have covered in the last three games. Take Duke as our NCAAF Blowout Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars +4/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Dallas is a massive public favorite this week based on the short line and who it is playing based on name which makes this another great contrarian spot. The Cowboys are on a four-game winning streak that includes three straight home wins and that alone is a tough spot playing on the road for the first time in a month. Dallas is 7-1 at home and get that extra home game based on the new schedules and get the Eagles there next week but come in only 3-2 on the highway with two of those wins coming against the overrated Giants and Vikings and the other against the hapless Rams. We cannot count out Jacksonville just yet. With a 2-1 record over its next three games coupled with a 1-2 Tennessee run in its next three games means a Week 18 showdown will decide the division based on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jaguars got into this spot with a 36-22 win over Tennessee last week on the road and while up and down, they are coming together when it counts with a 3-2 record over their last five games which followed a five-game losing streak but those were all decided by one possession so their record could be flipped right now. Here, we play on home teams in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville as our NFL Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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WSU vs. Fresno State
Bet: Fresno State ML/-140 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
So far, the Bulldogs not only had a strong overall record (9-4), but they also played well in Mountain West play, going 7-1. In their previous game, the Bulldogs picked up a 28-16 home win over Boise State. This was an impressive victory as they were also the 3.0-point underdogs. On offense, the Bulldogs are averaging 30.69 points per game, good for 60th in the NCAA. So far, a majority of their touchdowns have come on the ground, as they have rushed for 26 while throwing for 20. Fresno State is dangerous when it comes to punt returns, it is t-1 nationally on at 19.9 yards per return and has returned two punts to the house. The statistical numbers aren’t apples to apples given one team plays in the Pac-12 and the other in the Mountain West. But WSU and FSU have two common opponents this season: Oregon State and USC. Fresno State lost to OSU 35-32 in Week Two, and was beaten by USC 45-17 the following week. Washington State lost 30-14 to Southern Cal and the following week fell 24-10 to Oregon State. Wazzu started out strong vs. USC but faded offensively in the second half, while FSU was outmatched from the beginning.Wazzu allowed the Trojans only 369 yards of total offense, FSU gave up 517. But WSU arguably played its worst game of the season at Oregon State and while the defense did enough to win, the offense was one-dimensional and only scored 10 points. Meanwhile, Fresno State outgained OSU 492-397 in total yards and were in position to win their game with the Beavs at the end. Led by former UW quarterback Jake Haener, Fresno State has won eight consecutive games and beat Boise State in the Mountain West championship. The transfer portal has also changed the calculus, with 11 WSU players recently entering the transfer portal to FSU’s three. Several of the WSU portal entries are reserves and players down on the depth chart. But there are also some starters, including LB Francisco Mauigoa and WRs De’Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie. Fresno would like some sort of statement game vs. a PAC 12 opponent here. The game is in LA, and as many players are from that area, we think they'll want to perform well. Fresno was 2nd in the Mt. West in defensive efficiency, and will face a pretty good, but inconsistent QB in Cameron Ward. WSU has been a poor bowl team over the last many seasons, losing to CMU last year. Take Fresno State as our NCAAF Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Panthers vs Seahawks
Bet: Panthers +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Carolina Panthers have quietly gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They beat the Broncos by 13 and outgained them by 103 yards. They were tied late in the 4th quarter against the Ravens on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 while also losing to the Falcons by 3 in OT. And they crushed the Bucs by 18 at home for their five covers during this stretch. Now the Panthers are coming off a bye week with new life still very much alive in the NFC South. Their offense has new life with Sam Darnold, who played well in his first start against a good Denver defense. Darnold completed 11-of-19 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown, while the Panthers rushed for 185 yards as a team. Darnold won't have to do too much to keep the Panthers in this game because they should be able to run wild on this soft Seattle defense. The Panthers have rushed for at least 169 yards in four of their last six games. The Seahawks have allowed 122 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games and an average of 184.3 rushing yards per game in their last four. They rank 31st against the run at 155.3 yards per game and 28th at 4.9 yards per attempt. No question Seattle has the better offense and that unit has carried the team this season. But there are a lot of significant injuries for them on offense, especially at the running back position. WR DK Metcalf is questionable with a hip injury, and QB Geno Smith has a banged up shoulder. The Seahawks will be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 14th in scoring at 22.2 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. The Panthers have allowed 15 points or fewer in three consecutive games. Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - off a non-cover where they won SU as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1983. The spot favors the surging Panthers off a bye who are playing hard for interim head coach Steve Wilks. Take Carolina as our NFL Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Bet: Detroit Lions -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This matchup is not going to be one of the key talking points in the NFL this week, but it features a pair of teams that have quietly been improving this year. We are more impressed with the way Detroit is playing heading into this game, which is something that the betting market agrees with. The Lions have covered the spread in four of their last five games and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, while Jacksonville has only covered twice in its last eight games. The Jaguars continue to struggle defensively, with their wins coming in shootouts. Detroit’s defense has been playing much better of late, and the Lions have extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving—they have also covered the spread in eight of their last 10 home games. The Lions are 4-0 ATS since Week 9, winning 3 of those games outright. During this stretch, Detroit’s offense is 7th in EPA/play, and their offense is 16th, which is a far cry from their bottom-feeder numbers that side of the ball had to endure for the first 2 months of the season. The offense has produced consistently good numbers for most of the season thanks to great play along the offensive line, which is 5th in adjusted line yards created and has allowed the 2nd fewest sacks in the league. Meanwhile, the Jags offensive line is outside the top 20 in both of those categories. Jared Goff is ranked 19th out of 33 qualifying QBs in EPA+CPOE, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has the 6th highest PFF grade of any qualifying WR. Their defense has been slowly trending in the right direction, but they still need a lot more on the edge. Outside of Aidan Hutchinson, who has been stellar, nobody on the line has more than 2 sacks, and overall they are dead last in pass rush win rate. Jacksonville is 0-9 ATS since 1993 when playing as a 2 points road underdog or less, Jacksonville is 1-21 SU on the road in their last 22 games. Jacksonville is 0-9 SU since 2017 when playing as a road underdog in November. Detroit is 8-0 ATS and SU since 2013 when playing as a home favorite in November. The favorite is 8-0 ATS and SU in this series since 1995. That`s a 55-1 combined system to back our play. Take Detroit as our NFL Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Kansas State vs. TCU
Bet: Kansas State moneyline/+110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
TCU has been the definition of “survive and advance” all season long. Their blowout win over Iowa State was their first win of over 10 points since beating up Oklahoma back on October 1st. The Horned Frogs offense has only scored less than 30 points just twice this season, at Texas and at Baylor. They still have the top offense in the Big 12 and a top 20 offense nationally. Yet oddsmakers, the College Football Playoff Committee and fans have continually failed to back TCU this season. For all their success, TCU has only been a double-digit favorite twice this season: in their opener against Colorado and the finale against Iowa State. In the regular season match-up, TCU trailed at halftime by 11. It was just the second time this season they were trailing at half, the other being against Oklahoma State. The TCU defense held the Wildcats scoreless due to QB injuries to starter Adrian Martinez and then back Will Howard leaving 3rd strong Jake Rubley to throw an interception from which Kansas State never recovered. However, Howard went 13-for-20 for 225 and two touchdowns pacing the Wildcats to 28-17 lead at half. Since Howard has become the starter in the last four games, he’s completed 63.5% of his passes for 999 yards and 11 passing touchdowns. Kansas State’s total defense is second best in the conference. They are also second best in yards per play allowed and they’ve given up the fewest touchdowns in the Big 12. TCU has taken on 75% of the tickets early, but a sharp discrepancy in taking just 53% of the handle. There is no one that knows TCU better than us, and we are telling all of our clients to bet as much as they can on Kansas State moneyline, they will win this game outright and it will not be close either. Take Kansas State moneyline/+110 as our Biggest High Roller Play Ever released by our service, NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Coastal Carolina vs. Troy
Bet: Troy -8.5/-110 sportsbook: Wynn LV ) - Winner
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers take on the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt title game. Coastal is the runner-up in the Sun Belt east division, but the winners, JMU, are not eligible for postseason play due to the NCAA’s rules on first-year FBS teams. Coastal still has had a phenomenal season and is 9-2 straight up but 4-6-1 against the spread. They have won some close games and are not as dominant as last year or 2020. Troy just edged out South Alabama for the West division title and is looking for its 7th Sun Belt title, which is the most of any team. Troy and Coastal are both fighting for a potential spot in the New Orleans Bowl, which historically has hosted the Sun Belt Champion. This game is a classic matchup between a very good offense and a very good defense. Coastal averages almost 30 points and over 400 yards per game. Troy allows on average just 16 points and a little over 300 yards on defense. This game will be played in Troy and they not only have a home-field advantage but they have been here before. They are tied for the most conference championships in Sun Belt History and know how to win these games. Coastal Carolina will also be without their star quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is arguably why this team has been winning so many games in the last 3 years. The Trojans are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games compared to Coastal’s 3-6-1 record. Take the Trojans as our NCAAF Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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North Texas vs UTSA
Bet: UTSA -8.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The North Texas Mean Green will take on the UTSA Roadrunners in San Antonio for the Conference USA Championship this Friday. UTSA has had a fantastic season going undefeated in conference play and ending the season with 10 wins. The biggest reason behind the success of the Roadrunners has been a potent offense led by Senior quarterback Frank Harris. This year, Harris threw for 3,500 yards along with 27 passing touchdowns. He not only beats you with his arm but with his legs rushing for eight touchdowns and averaging five yards a carry. It has been very difficult to slow down this Roadrunner offense ranking inside the top 15 in total yards allowed and points scored a game. UTSA will be without their star running back Brenden Brady because of an injury. The freshman Kevorian Barnes has been fantastic with his limited workload averaging six yards a carry and scoring five rushing touchdowns. Barnes will have a bigger role with the offense on Friday. The blueprint for UTSA has been to outscore the opponent regardless of the success of the Roadrunners’ defense. The Mean Green has also found success through the air with their veteran quarterback Austin Aune. Aune has thrown for over 30 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards. North Texas has had more of a rollercoaster season, only accumulating back-to-back wins twice this season. The running back duo of Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway III have been a solid one, two punch for this Mean Green rushing game. They both accumulated over 1,200 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in the season. This duo has lingering injuries that will slow them down on Friday. Most bettors will most likely take the underdog in this game because of the high spread, but we will side with the better team here to win by double digits to cover the spread. Take UTSA as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 27, 2022 )
Bengals vs Titans
Bet: Bengals -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will be hammering the Cincinnati Bengals and we will lay the points (-2) on the road. We see Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense throwing the ball all over this Tennessee secondary. The Bengals are throwing for the fourth most yards per game and they are scoring the third most points as a team. They will continue to march the ball down the field and score enough points to cover this spread. Ja'Marr Chase could also return for this game, as this would be a huge boost for this offense. Even if he can't play, the Bengals have enough weapons to stay efficient on the offensive side of the field. The Titans are also surrendering the 30th most passing yards per game, as their secondary has continued to give up big play after big play. They won't be able to slow down this Bengals offense, as Cincinnati will slowly pull away. We see the Titans' offense struggling to score enough points to cover this spread. They are averaging the 24th most points scored and the 29th most total yards. The Bengals will be able to make just enough stops to get the win in this game. Everyone is excited about this Titans team after beating the Packers, but Green Bay has stunk all season. It isn't that impressive, as the Bengals will put them back into their place in this game. Take the Bengals as our NFL Game of the Year No Limit Play.
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Minnesota vs Wisconsin
Bet: Minnesota +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
At 4-4 in conference play, both the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Wisconsin Badgers will be looking to finish this campaign with a conference record over .500 when they duke it out on Saturday afternoon. For the Badgers, their offense is on a bit of a cold streak with 23 points or less in 3 straight outings, as well as 4 total turnovers in that span. Wisconsin is also coming off of a 15-point, 318-yard performance against a fairly bad Nebraska squad. Minnesota isn’t that much better offensively, but they do have a workhorse in running back Mohamed Ibrahim. He’s toted the rock 30+ times in 5 straight games while also gaining at least 100 yards in every game he’s played in this season. The Golden Gophers heart and soul runs through their defense, which has held 4 straight opponents to 13 points or less. They also rank 7th in FBS in total yards allowed per game at 274.5. The Badgers played against Iowa a couple weeks ago, who possess a similar defense to the one they’ll be facing in Minnesota. They were held to just 10 points on a measly 3.4 yards per play while committing 3 turnovers. The Badgers have covered in just 3 of their last 8 outings while the Golden Gophers have lost by 4 or more in just 3 contests this year, all against better competition than Wisconsin. Side with Minnesota as our Guaranteed NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year.
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Detroit vs New York Giants
Bet: Detroit +3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Detroit outscored Chicago 21-6 in the 4th quarter and erased a 2-score deficit to earn the first road victory in the Dan Campbell era this past Sunday. Meanwhile, the Giants needed every ounce of Saquon Barkley’s 152-yard effort on 35 carries to get past the lowly Texans and barely cover the spread. Dameon Pierce averaged more than 5 yards per carry against this New York defense and I can see a healthy stable of Lions backs having similar success behind an offensive line that is top 10 in run block win rate this season. Both Jared Goff and Daniel Jones graded out in the top 5 of the QB efficiency rankings this week. We think it’s fair to say both present similar floors and ceilings in this matchup. The big difference for us here is Detroit’s defense, which is trending up over the last 2 weeks ranked 13th in EPA/play. Rookie Aidan Hutchinson continues to improve and is looking like a bona fide star on the edge. We love New York head coach Brian Daboll, and this coaching staff has done an incredible job with getting this roster into playoff position, but the Giants are painfully average in almost every category, including being outside the top 15 in all 4 win rate categories (pass rush, pass block, run block, run stop). Detroit is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against the NFC. Take Detroit as our Guaranteed NFL Game of the Month No Limit Play.
NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 19, 2022 )
Navy vs UCF
Bet: Navy +16.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This is a terrible spot for UCF this week. They are coming off three straight wins that went down to the wire, a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, a 35-28 win at Memphis and a 38-31 win at Tulane. They will now be playing for a 7th consecutive week and we don't think they have much gas left in the tank here. This is the ideal letdown spot for UCF now taking a step down in class against Navy. UCF is guaranteed to go to the AAC Championship Game as long as they win one of their next two games against Navy or South Florida. They hold the tiebreaker over Tulane and Cincinnati, and those two play each other next week so one of them is guaranteed to have two losses. Knowing UCF has AAC bottom feeder USF on deck next week if need be will have them relaxing this week. UCF won't have its normal home-field advantage this week with this game starting at 11:00 AM EST Saturday morning. It won't be nearly as rowdy as it would be at night. We expect a sleepy start to the game for UCF, and that will keep Navy in this game early which will be important. The Midshipmen can control the clock with their triple-option rushing attack and stay in this game for four quarters because of it. Navy has no quit in them. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes a 3-point loss at ECU as a 17.5-point underdog, a 3-point loss at Air Force as a 14-point dog, a 6-point loss at SMU as a 12-point dog, a 10-point loss at Cincinnati as 18.5-point dogs, and a 3-point loss to Notre Dame as 17-point dogs. If they can take all of those teams to the wire, they can certainly take UCF to the wire. Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. UCF won 31-21 as a 10-point favorite, won 35-24 as a 23.5-point favorite and lost outright last year 34-30 as a 15-point favorite. Navy ran for 348 yards on UCF last year and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. That will be the key to success again this season. Navy knows they have the next two weeks off before playing Army, so they will put everything into trying to win this game. UCF relies heavily on its rushing attack averaging 250 rushing yards per game. That makes this a great matchup for Navy, which only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. They have allowed 66 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, which includes Notre Dame and Cincinnati. Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per rush. UCF is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored. Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. The Midshipmen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play. These five trends combine for a 41-2 system backing the Midshipmen. Take Navy as our NCAAF Game of the Year.
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Houston Texans vs. New York Giants
Bet: New York Giants -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Giants are coming off a Week 9 bye, so they are well-rested and ready to take on the one-win Texans. New York has been one of the bigger surprises this season as they’ve started 6-2, and although some of it stems from the improvement of Daniel Jones, a lot of it comes from Saquon Barkley. Barkley has been plagued with injuries in his young NFL career, but he has played in all 8 games so far this season, which is a great sign for the Giants. The former Penn State star has a perfect matchup this weekend as the Giants have had two weeks to rest and now face a Texans defense that has allowed 1445 rushing yards this season, the most in the league. In just the last three weeks, Houston has allowed Derrick Henry to run for 219 yards with 2 touchdowns and Josh Jacobs to run for 143 yards with 3 touchdowns. New York went into the bye week on a sour note as they lost to the Seahawks 27-13, yet their defense wasn’t that bad. They missed two crucial 4th down stops, but for the most part, they pressured Geno Smith well and had good coverage in the secondary. They come out of their bye week to face a Houston offense that averages the 5th fewest points per game in the league and relies too heavily on rookie sensation Dameon Pierce. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Pierce run for 100 yards since the Giants’ defense can struggle against the run. However, it’s when Davis Mills airs it out that New York should thrive. The Giants’ secondary has allowed the 9th fewest passing yards and 2nd fewest passing completions, so against a sub-par Houston wide receiving corps, New York should have the advantage. Barkley should lead the Giants to their 7th win of the season en route to covering the -4.5 spread on Sunday.
NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 12, 2022 )
TCU vs. Texas
Bet: TCU +7/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
TCU will try and keep their amazing, undefeated season going as they travel to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns. TCU was snubbed in the first College Football Playoff rankings being the only undefeated team left out of the top six spots and the Horned Frogs would likely need to be an undefeated Big 12 champion to clinch a playoff berth. For Texas, a win would help their quest for their first nine-win regular season since 2018 and maybe a shot at a New Year’s Six Bowl with some help. If Texas wants that to happen, they will need a defensive performance equal to the one they gave against Alabama in Week 2. TCU quarterback Max Duggan leads the Big 12 in passing yards. TCU also leads the conference in rushing yards per game. They come at you for all 60 minutes and average over 70 plays per game on offense. The Longhorns will have to do exactly what they did to Alabama, which is force them to punt on six consecutive drives, including forcing four consecutive three-and-out drives. The Tide still manage over 370 yards of offense in that game. TCU is one of just five Power 5 offenses in the country that averages over 500 yards of offense per game. It will be very difficult for the Longhorns to keep the Horned Frogs off the scoreboard. Defensively, TCU will have to slow down a Texas offense that is second in the Big 12 rushing yards. Texas running back Bijan Robinson leads the conference in rushing yards and could control the pace up front. For all that Texas has done to get back on the national stage, Steve Sarkisian is not a good ATS coach. The Longhorns failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites at Oklahoma State, 7-point favorites at Texas Tech and 15.5-point favorites hosting Iowa State. Their two covers over a field goal in conference play came against the bottom feeders of the conference at Oklahoma and versus West Virginia. This is too many points as Texas has given up late leads in the second half in 2 of the last 3 weeks and we don’t trust Sarkisian. Take the points here and go with TCU as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 6, 2022 )
Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -7/-120 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Carolina Panthers have been dealing with adversity all season. They have been ravaged by injuries and even dismissed head coach Matt Rhule. They have only covered the spread three times all season. The Bengals return home where they have covered in consecutive games and I like their chances to win this one in a blowout. Furthermore, the Panthers are starting PJ Walker at QB. Walker only connected on 52% of his pass attempts against Atlanta last week and he will struggle against a solid Bengals secondary that is limiting foes to only 210 passing yards per game. Joe Burrow is in a groove, surpassing 300 passing yards in two out of his last three performances and the Panthers rank 20th in the NFL in pass defense. While Chase isn’t playing, Higgins and Boyd are more than capable.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 5, 2022 )
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Bet: Georgia -8/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The critical handicap in this game is how the defenses elect to defend an elite set of skill-position players. The Tennessee offense is based on stretching the field, taking deep vertical shots to two of the best wideouts in the nation in Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt. Cornerback play for Georgia has been impeccable in man-to-man coverage. The ability to play man frees up other defenders for the spy or delayed blitz on Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker. Bullard has been a rock at the slot cornerback position, so Tennessee crossing patterns over the middle will be limited. The targets for the Tennessee offense will be safety Malaki Starks and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. Both players have allowed lengthy yards after the catch, while neither has logged a forced incompletion when targeted in man coverage. In particular, Starks had a disastrous afternoon against Florida as the most targeted defensive back, allowing 73 yards after the catch on four receptions. While Tennessee will face its most athletic opponent of the season, the ability to execute against the safety position will determine the winner in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Volunteers lack a single defender in PFF‘s top 200 slot coverage players. Cornerback Wesley Walker has been targeted 17 times this season, allowing 13 catches and 57 yards after the catch. Bowers and fellow tight end Darnell Washington should have no resistance to routes run within the hash marks. The Bulldogs’ Offensive Success Rate in standard and passing downs gives Smart the ability to dictate tempo. Georgia will break a couple of explosive runs, but all indications are there for Bennett to target man coverage with his best weapons. Expect Georgia to have successful multi-play drives capped off with touchdowns by the best red-zone scoring team in the nation. Look for the Georgia defense to play Tillman and Hyatt in one-on-one coverage while keeping a spy on Hooker. Because the cornerback play from Ringo, Bullard and Smith has been elite in man coverage, there’s an expectation the Bulldogs could force a few punts. A man-to-man quarters scheme downfield will limit the decision-making by Hyatt and Tillman after the snap, creating a big advantage for the home defense. The Georgia side has a correlation to the full-game and Tennessee team total under. Last season, Georgia won the battle in time of possession and first downs. Expect more of the same from the Bulldogs in Week 10. The Bulldogs are an elite team on both sides of the ball, particularly defense. Georgia ranks second in scoring defense (10.5) and fourth in total defense (262.6) despite the loss of five NFL first-round picks and eight overall draftees from last season’s unit. That is where the difference in this game can be found. The Volunteers are tied for 26th in scoring defense (21.0) and 82nd in total defense (393.6) and that will allow Georgia to beat Tennessee for the sixth straight time. Take Georgia as our NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Blowout Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 5, 2022 )
Texas Tech vs TCU
Bet: TCU -9/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. We don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games, North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. We don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. The Frogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five after an ATS win and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight overall. TCU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five conference games. The Frogs put together a pretty decent effort against West Virginia over the weekend, with 494 total yards, 9.0 yards per play and 17 first downs. TCU as a team, is averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing 27.3 as a team to their opponents. Texas Tech is scoring 33.9 points per game and allowing 29.3 to their opponents. We see Texas Christian coming away with an easy victory in this matchup at home. Take TCU -9 as our NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 5, 2022 )
Wake Forest vs NC State
Bet: NC State +4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
NC State’s defense has been paving the way for the team, as it ranks 17th-best in the FBS with 308.6 total yards allowed per contest. In terms of offense, it is accumulating 355.1 total yards per game, which ranks 97th. NC State’s defensive unit has been paving the way for the team, as it ranks 12th-best in the FBS with 17.4 points allowed per game. In terms of offense, it is putting up 26.8 points per game, which ranks 81st. In terms of passing, NC State ranks 77th in the FBS (230.0 passing yards per game) and 30th on the other side of the ball (195.3 passing yards allowed per game). NC State’s run defense has been leading the charge for the team, as it ranks 22nd-best in the FBS with 113.4 rushing yards allowed per game. In terms of offense, it is accumulating 125.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 101st. NC State’s defense has been excelling on third down, giving up a 29.4% third-down conversion rate (11th-best). Offensively, it ranks 66th in the FBS with a 39.5% third-down rate. NC State has registered 13 forced turnovers (45th in the FBS) and committed eight turnovers (19th in the FBS) this season for a +5 turnover margin that ranks 26th in the FBS. The bitter defeat from last season will be fresh in the Wolfpack’s minds, and the team will be looking to pounce on a Wake Forest team that was just humbled in Louisville. NC State will rely on their defense to carry them, the Pack have yet to let up more than 30 points in a game. MJ Morris will be making his first collegiate start, but was a revelation in NC State’s comeback win over Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack get credit for a great comeback win versus Virginia Tech, holding the Hokies to 10 first downs and a 1-of-11 rate on third-down tries. Take NC State +4.5 as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 29, 2022 )
Missouri vs South Carolina
Bet: Missouri +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
South Carolina has won four straight games but it has been fortunate along the way with some deceiving victories. The Gamecocks started the streak with a blowout win by 36 points over Charlotte which just fired their coach and then came up with another blowout against South Carolina St. of the FCS. South Carolina then defeated Kentucky by 10 points on the road which looks impressive but the Wildcats were without starting quarterback Will Levis and last week, it was another upset against Texas A&M by six points but they were outgained by 112 yards as they jumped out to a 17-0 start thanks to returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown and then turning two Aggies turnovers into 10 more points. The special teams and defense have bolstered their scoring average as the offense is ranked No. 83 in the country overall as a strength coming into the season was supposed to be from transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma but he has underwhelmed by throwing for only 1,465 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions while getting sacked 15 times. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win. The Tigers moved to 3-4 on the season with a tougher than expected win over Vanderbilt last week as the offense sputtered but the defense once again kept them in it. They are ranked No. 22 in total defense and both units have performed well at No. 32 against the pass and No. 46 against the run and they will be facing a below average offense once again. After allowing 40 points to Kansas St. in their second game of the season, they have given up just 19.6 ppg over their last five games. Missouri is 0-3 on the road but two of those losses came at Florida and at Auburn by a combined 10 points and it outgained the Gators and Tigers by 73 and 95 total yards respectively. The worst effort over that stretch was allowing 26 points and that came against Georgia which shows the high level that the Missouri defense has been playing. The public wants nothing to do with the Tigers this week and that is just how we like it. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 23, 2022 )
Chiefs vs 49ers
Bet: Chiefs -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will gladly lay the 1 point on the road with Kansas City against the 49ers. We think the addition of McCaffrey has some serious potential in the long run, but expecting him to come out in his first game and have a huge impact is a little far fetched. We also think there's a bit of a perception here that the Chiefs are going to be flat coming off their 20-24 loss to the Bills. We would maybe be inclined to think that had Kansas City found a way to win that game, but losing should have them motivated to bounce back. Keep in mind they followed up their earlier loss this season against the Colts with a dominant showing in a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay. The other big thing here that isn't getting enough talk is the poor health of the 49ers coming into this game. San Francisco only had 4 of their projected 11 starters on the field by the end of last week's game against the Falcons. It does look like Bosa will be able to return to the lineup, but as a whole the defense is really banged up. We also like the matchup for Kansas City. The 49ers's offense is predicated on their ability to run the football. The Cheifs' run defense has looked greatly improved this year, giving up just 90 ypg. KC's defense could also be getting back two huge pieces. Willie Gay's 4-game suspension is up and all signs are rookie 1st round corner Trent McDuffie will make his anticipated return from injury.
NCAAF Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 22, 2022 )
Texas vs Oklahoma State
Bet: Oklahoma State +6/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Texas Longhorns travel to Boone Pickens Stadium to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Both of these teams have one loss in the conference. And trust us when we tell you, the winner of this game will be watching the TCU/Kansas State match-up later today. The Horned Frogs and the Wildcats are both undefeated in Big 12 play. This game has serious implications here folks. In all honestly, on both of my sets of power ratings, we have Oklahoma State -1 and -4. Yes, they have covered four of the last five outings. Yes, they are playing at home. And yes, they should be in serious bounce-back mode after suffering a three-point overtime loss on the road last week against TCU. We get it guys. We understand the Longhorns have won their last three games. But going on the road to Stillwater to face an angry Cowboys team coming off their first defeat of the season, is going to be a tough task. Oklahoma State has a more potent offense without question. We know the Texas defense is a top-20 stop-unit. But we believe they will be backpedaling most of the game here. We do expect Longhorns quarterback, Quinn Ewers, who has been healthy the last few weeks and tossed seven touchdown passes, is going to have quite a bit of success in the air. But the more well-balanced, more-explosive offense of Okie State and their very loyal fan base, are going to play huge parts in this match-up. Giving them points here is a mistake. This is going to be a very close game. We like the Cowboys. Let’s not forget they have covered five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry. Oklahoma State is also 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 games played vs. conference foes, 20-4-2 ATS the last 26 games played following an ATS win, 10-3 ATS the last 13 games played following a SU loss, and 16-5-1 ATS the last 22 games played overall. Texas is 3-8 ATS the last 11 games played vs. Big 12 teams, 2-5 ATS the last seven games played following an ATS loss, 1-4 ATS the last five games played on the road, and 1-4 ATS the last five games played on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. Take the Cowboys.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 16, 2022 )
New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns
Bet: New England Patriots +2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Patriots looked to have turned the corner against the Lions. Granted, it was a coaching mismatch with the overly aggressive Dan Campbell against the seasoned Bill Belichick but the Patriots ability to get to the quarterback was encouraging. In this matchup, it will be two ground and pound offenses squaring off in which possession will be critical. The Patriots will likely keep Zappe under center for at least another week because of his ability to move around and escape pressure while Jones would be more immobile than usual with the balky ankle. One thing the Patriots have done well throughout this 20+ year run with Belichick is to take away the opponents' most important player. There is no doubt in my mind that Belichick will play a bigger front seven and pack the box to take away any big runs for Chubb. New England will gamble with one on one coverage of the Browns' receivers and force Brissett to beat them. After a strong start, Brissett looks to be returning to form in recent weeks as a capable backup but not a long term solution as a starting quarterback. In his last two games, Brissett's accuracy is down to 60% and he's thrown two interceptions with one touchdown. On the other side of the ball, Zappe has looked efficient throwing the ball and the team has taken advantage of his skill set, running more shotgun sets than before. Stevenson will get more reps this game with Harris out and he should have a field day against the Browns 28th ranked rushing defense. There is also the matter of Belichick's 8-1 career record against the Browns, including a 45-7 win last season.
NCAAF Favorite of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 15, 2022 )
Louisiana Tech vs North Texas
Bet: North Texas -6.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 27-47 )
This is a good scheduling spot for North Texas which evened its record at 3-3 with a win over Florida Atlantic two weeks ago prior to its bye week. The Mean Green are a run first offense and they have had success in nearly every game as they are averaging 216.5 ypg which is No. 15 in the country and overall, the offense is ranked No. 19 as a decent passing game backs up the ground attack. They have outgained three of their last four opponents and those four games produced the four best offensive performances of the season so they seem to be clicking going into the heart of the C-USA schedule. Defensively, North Texas has not been good but there should be no worries here against a poor offense. The Mean Green are 7-0 ATS in their last seven conference games. Louisiana Tech came through for us last week in a 10-point win over UTEP despite getting outgained by 121 total yards as the Bulldogs were +2 in turnovers that included an interception returned for a touchdown. That was the fourth time in five games they have been outgained with the lone exception coming in their games against Stephen F. Austin of the FCS. The three losses have come by 24, 28 and 28 points and all of those were on the road and the one common theme was getting gashed on the ground where they have allowed an average of 259.3 ypg on 6.3 ypc. Overall, they are No. 124 in rushing defense and No. 123 in scoring defense and Louisiana Tech should have no answers in this one. The Bulldogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
NCAAF Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 15, 2022 )
USC vs Utah
Bet: USC +3.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 42-43 )
For the life of us, we can’t figure out why a 6-0 undefeated USC Trojans team are an underdog against the 4-2 Utah Utes. You know Utah really took more of a beating than the 42-32 score against UCLA last week. Well, there is no debating that USC is a very similar football team to UCLA. Now are we to believe that the Utes coaching staff and the players are going to overcome all the issues they had with the Bruins last weekend and beat a very similar Trojans here this week? Of course not. We know that there’s an argument that USC really hasn’t been tested yet. But this is a team that shredded Stanford, Fresno State, Arizona State, and Washington State, while also playing a very tough Oregon State tightly. If you just look at Utah’s two losses: they opened up the season losing at “The Swamp” against the very overrated Florida team. And last week they got devoured at UCLA. Now we know both of those games are on the road. And they are now back at home in Salt Lake City. But we don’t think that changes things enough for them to win here, let alone to be a favored in this match up. We actually think that USC should be favored in this match. The Trojans have a very well-balanced offense. They’re equally good on the ground and in the air. Moreover, they haven’t turned the ball over at all. And that is huge guys. On the flipside, we know Utah can score points. But the Trojans rank number one in the nation in takeaways. They’ve got 12 turnovers already. The oddsmakers are looking to trap you here. Let’s not forget the ‘dog is 4-1 against the spread the last four meetings in the series. Once again, we think USC wins out right. Bit we will take the points as a gift. Take the Trojans.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 10, 2022 )
Raiders vs Chiefs
Bet: OVER 51.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 29-30 )
We've seen a string of low-scoring NFL primetime games and while that obviously has no real effect on the way tonight's affair plays out on the field, we do think it helps to keep the total in check as bettors become a little more hesitant to 'auto-bet' the 'over' in these spotlight games. We believe we're set up for a shootout as the Raiders head to Kansas City to challenge the Chiefs on Monday. The Chiefs woes in pass defense have been somewhat masked by the explosiveness of their offense this season and we expect that to continue to be the theme on Monday night. The Raiders have actually been moving the football at will but haven't been able to finish enough drives with seven's rather than three's to avoid a disappointing 1-3 start. It's worth noting that Las Vegas QB Derek Carr will be facing a weaker secondary, in our opinion, than he saw last Sunday at home against the Broncos. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 14-8 in the Raiders last 22 games as an underdog and 10-6 in their last 16 contests where the total was set at 49.5 points or higher, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 18-12 in the Chiefs last 30 games against AFC opponents and has also cashed in all four meetings in this series over the last two seasons. Take the over.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 9, 2022 )
Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans
Bet: Washington Commanders +1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The Commanders are a hot mess as they sit at 1-3. However, there are some positives that this team can take forward and some players who need to succeed for the Commanders to steal this game. Wentz must improve. Likewise, he must avoid mistakes. Wentz passed for 1,031 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 82.3 this year. Moreover, his performance has been subpar, and he must correct his issues. Gibson has rushed 53 times for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Ultimately, it is not the season he envisioned, and he cannot seem to find room to move. The Commanders rank 26th in points per game, 29th in points allowed per game, and 21st in yards per game. Curiously, they excel in other categories. Washington ranks eighth in time of possession and sixth in third-down efficiency. Their defense remains mediocre, ranking 15th in sacks and 26th in interceptions. Jamin Davis leads the Commanders with three sacks. Ultimately, the Commanders miss their top defensive player Chase Young, who is still recovering from an ACL tear. The Commanders will cover the spread if they can keep the ball out of Derrick Henry’s hands. Additionally, they must continue to convert third downs to keep the clock moving.
NCAAF Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 8, 2022 )
TCU vs. Kansas
Bet: TCU -6.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 38 - 31 )
Kansas is far better than expected and worthy of all the praise behind the fine play of quarterback Jaylon Daniels, but the winning streak stops here. TCU was our favorite Big 12 win total over team and a conference championship contender, and they have lived up to the hype thus far. The team has scored 38 or more in every game this season and are averaging 8.33 yards per play, the best mark in the country. First year head coach Sonny Dykes has joined the Horned Frogs and revitalized their defense that is outpacing high powered offenses like SMU and Oklahoma. The defense has also held up their end of the bargain under first year head coach Joe Gillespie, ranking top 50 in success rate against those aforementioned elite offenses. While Daniels has been electric on offense we saw the Jayhawks struggle in their first game against an above average defense in Iowa State last week, who runs a similar 3-3-5 scheme. Kansas totaled 213 yards in the win against Iowa State and needed the Cyclones to miss three field goals to hang onto a 14-11 victory. Now, they will face their toughest test of the season and be unable to keep up. The Jayhawks defense is 80th in success rate and won't be able to keep down the Horned Frogs offense. The Frogs put on a clinic against Oklahoma, storming to 668 total yards, 8.9 yards per play, 29 first downs, zero turnovers and a 7-of-14 run on third-down tries. As for Kansas, they somehow pulled off a messy win against a pretty good Iowa State team last weekend. The Jayhawks managed just 213 total yards, 10 first downs and a 3-of-10 run on third-down tries. Even after a win, Kansas needs to regroup this week. TCU has won three consecutive meetings and lead the all-time series 25-9-4.
NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 8, 2022 )
Florida State vs. NC State
Bet: NC State -3/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser ( 17 - 19 )
NC State dropped to 4-1 overall and 0-1 in the ACC following its 30-20 loss to the Clemson Tigers on Saturday. North Carolina State was held to 279 yards of total offense and committed two turnovers. The Wolfpack gave up 354 yards of total offense to Clemson. NC State quarterback Devin Leary passed for 245 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Quarterback Devin Leary has passed for 1,135 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. The leading rusher is Demie Sumo-Karngbaye with 262 yards and three touchdowns, while the leading receiver is Thayer Thomas with 301 yards and two touchdown receptions. On defense, linebacker Drake Thomas is the leading tackler with 32. NC State has seven quarterback sacks and seven interceptions. Florida State and North Carolina State were both knocked from the unbeaten ranks with losses on Saturday. NC State will bounce back with a strong effort at home on Saturday and defeat Florida State. NC State has covered the number in each of the last five played at home versus Florida State. NC State is holding opponents to an average of only 15.4 points per game and allows an average of only 94.4 yards rushing per game which is one of Florida State's strengths at 203.8 yards per game. North Carolina State is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division division, 13-0 SU in their last 13 games at home, 10-0 SU as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 2016, and 17-4 ATS vs Florida State since 2001.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 2, 2022 )
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Philadelphia Eagles will look to build on their 24-8 win over the Commanders last time out to climb to 3-0 on the year. Jalen Hurts has thrown for 916 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception on 67.3% passing while also rushing for 167 yards and 3 TDs. Miles Sanders has a team-high 222 rushing yards while A.J. Green has a team-high 309 receiving yards and 20 receptions this season. DeVonta Smith has 249 receiving yards while Dallas Goedert has 168 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, T.J. Edwards has a team-high 27 total tackles including 21 solo tackles while Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox each have a team-high 3 sacks and Josh Sweat has 2.5 sacks as well. Darius Slay also has a pair of interceptions this season. We get the case to be made for the Jaguars here as these two sides haven’t been all that different offensively up to this point in the season as both have had a game where they get into the high-30s as well as a pair of games scoring into the 20s. That being said, the Eagles have been better on the defensive side of the football, and we want to see how the Jaguars fare against a team without a banged up QB like the chargers had last week and against a team not named the Colts who the Jaguars have seemingly had the number of in recent years. Philadelphia is an aggressive defensive team, and they have the ability to do damage through the air and on the ground. Hurts has developed nicely into a dual-threat quarterback and the acquisition of Brown was a big piece for the Eagles’ passing game. This game is in Philadelphia and the Eagles are cooking right now. Give the points and take the hosts in this contest, we will also get our sweet revenge against the Jaguars after we lost our play last weekend.
NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 1st, 2022 )
East Carolina vs South Florida
Bet: East Carolina -8.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This game has been moved from Tampa to Boca Raton due to Hurricane Ian. It will no longer be a home game for the South Florida Bulls, and we don't think it's being factored into this line enough. East Carolina is going to win this game by double-digits and cover the number for us Saturday. This is a terrible matchup for the Bulls. They are allowing 246 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry this season. They gave up 312 rushing yards to BYU, 220 to Florida and 283 to Louisville. Now they face an ECU team that is rushing for 188 yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season. This is a balanced ECU offense that also averages 276 passing yards per game. This line would be higher if the Pirates were 4-0 instead of 2-2. You could argue they should be 4-0 as they have outgained all four opponents. They missed an extra point in their 21-20 loss to NC State as 12-point underdogs. NC State is one of the best teams in the country, and they outgained the Wolfpack by 39 yards in that contest. They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 20-23 (OT) loss last week as 16-point favorites. So this is now a good 'buy low' spot on the Pirates off that upset defeat. South Florida was blasted 21-50 by BYU and 3-41 by Louisville. They also failed to cover in a 22-point win over FCS Howard as a 39.5-point favorite, one of the worst FCS teams in the country. They only outgained Howard by 6 yards in that contest. The Bulls are still getting too much respect for their 28-31 loss to Florida, which was clearly the aberration. East Carolina has owned South Florida each of the last two seasons. They won 44-24 in 2020 and 29-14 in 2021. It should be more of the same as this is the best ECU team they have had in the four years under Mike Houston, while it's clear that Jeff Scott and the Bulls are still in rebuilding mode in his third season at the helm. The Pirates are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Pirates will win this game by double-digits and extend the lead in the 2nd half with their ability to run the football against this soft USF run defense. ECU will stop the run as they allow just 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, which is impressive when you consider they have faced Navy and NC State. There is a reason why we have offered that huge guarantee for this pick, because it`s going to be a complete blowout for East Carolina, and we are hammering this play and releasing it as our NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for September 25, 2022 )
Cincinnati Bengals vs NY Jets
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Thing is they should be 2-0 and we just don't see them leaving any doubt in this one trying to avoid the 0-3 start. The great news for them is they play a bad Jets team. One that is getting a lot of attention for their crazy 31-30 come from behind win over the Browns last week. The Jets had no business winning that game. Cleveland could have not scored and fell down at the 1 an ran the clock out. The Browns also missed an extra point while scoring that late TD to up 31-17. They then somehow aren't in prevent and give up a 66-yard TD pass, failed to recover an onside kick and gave up another TD in a span of like 90 seconds. We think it's created a great spot to fade the Jets, who we think will be a little flat off that crazy win. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with New York is that they have trailed 24-3 and 31-17 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th quarter in their two games. We also think it's a much easier matchup for the Cincinnati offense. Clearly the offensive line, mainly pass protection, is still a problem. Didn't help matters their first two games were against maybe the two best pass rushers in TJ Watt and Micah Parsons. Jets don't have an elite edge rusher. They got just 3 sacks in 2 games. With all that said, the Bengals could have a "B-" type of performance and still win this game by 7 or more points. We are going to get their "A" game after the 0-2 start. Give us the Bengals -6!
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for September 25, 2022 )
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
This pick is predicated on Chargers to play even without quarterback Justin Herbert. The Jaguars are 0-for-6 playing in southern California, being outscored 208-98 in those games. A Chargers defense featuring impact pass-rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, along with safety Derwin James, makes this one of the toughest challenges in Trevor Lawrence's career. Until the Jags actually play well on the West Coast, we are going to reserve judgment. Plus, the Chargers have had two extra days to prepare, which means two extra days for quarterback Justin Herbert to get healthy. If Chase Daniels has to play, remember the Jags have a recent history of making career backup quarterbacks look like All-Pros (see Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor). No matter which quarterback starts for the opposition going back to Oakland's Jeff Hostetler in the Jaguars' first-ever California trip in 1996, the Jags and the Pacific time zone are a bad mix. Plus, the Bolts aren't the Colts. The Chargers kept Patrick Mahomes in check in Week 2 and should have had multiple interceptions, while Derek Carr had three interceptions against them in Week 1. The Chargers also have seven sacks in two games. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
NCAAF No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 24, 2022 )
Clemson vs. Wake Forest Loser ( 51-45 )
Bet: Clemson -7/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
A year ago, an unranked Clemson stepped on No. 10 Wake at home behind a 31-17 scoring blitz in the second half. The key to that game was Clemson's ability to marshal its forces on the defensive front seven and smother the Deacons' attempt to run the ball. Wake finished with 36 yards on the ground for a 1.2 ypc average while Clemson piled on 333 and 4 scores rushing. Uiagalelei was a crisp passing 11 of 19 for over 200 in the air and a TD. That remains the key to victory for the Tigers this time, as well. Run the ball and stop the run, plug the gaps on third down to get Hartman off the field, and open up lanes downfield for Uiagalelei to develop his long game. Wake Forest has found outright success or at least more competitive results against every other ACC team except for the Tigers, and the reason comes down to a major disadvantage at the line of scrimmage. Throughout the College Football Playoff era we have been dazzled by some of the quarterbacks and wide receivers to come through Clemson, but the most consistent unit year-to-year has been the defensive line. That defensive front has overwhelmed Wake Forest over the years, disrupting all the intricate and well-crafted aspects of the offense. That trend continues, as does the trend of double-digit wins. The defense has been suffocating. Louisiana Tech kept throwing in the 48-20 loss to the Tigers, but that didn’t matter, 14 points came late when the game was well out of reach. Star DT Bryan Bresee is back on campus after being out last week following the tragic loss of his sister, the run defense is allowing just 2.4 yards per carry, and the takeaways are flowing. No, the Tigers haven’t faced an offense like Wake Forest will bring, but the pass rush that hasn’t needed to turn it loose is about to step up, the secondary should be able to hold up, and there’s no fear of stopping the run. The Demon Deacons will give it a shot, but the ground attack won’t go anywhere. The Clemson defense is about to turn it up a few notches. As is it’s fantastic, but it hasn’t done much to get to the quarterback, but that’s about to change. The offense that found a nice balance over the last two games will pound away, it won’t turn the ball over like the Demon Deacons need, they’ve come up with seven takeaways over the last two games, and after a fun and wild first part of the game, things will settle in. The Clemson defense will settle in. Wake Forest continues to make strides as a program, but Clemson has too much talent. Even with this game being played on Wake Forest’s home turf, the Tigers should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. We got the Tigers winning this game by double-digits no problem.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play GAME OF THE YEAR: ( Play released for September 18, 2022 )
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Bet: San Francisco -9/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will gladly take our chances with the 49ers covering as a 8.5-point home favorite against the Seahawks in Week 2. This may seem like a big number to be laying with San Francisco after watching them lose as a 7-point favorite at Chicago in Week 1. Not to mention the Seahawks come in having just won outright at home against the Broncos as a 7-point dog in a prime time game on Monday Night Football. Not surprised at all that we have seen the betting public all over the Seahawks at this price. We just think it's a classic overreaction on both teams after Week 1. While San Francisco is going to need more out of Trey Lance if they want to be a legit Super Bowl contender, they should not have lost that game to the Bears. They were in complete control leading 10-0 in the 2nd half before everything that could go wrong did. We would have bet the house on the 49ers had you told me they were going to hold Chicago to 204 total yards and just 3.6 yards/play. Another thing that needs to be noted about that game for San Francisco is how the weather and field conditions really worked against what the 49ers wanted to offensively. We think they got the potential here to have one of the biggest turnarounds offensively from Week 1 to Week 2. A lot of that has to do with who they are playing. Seattle couldn't have been more lucky to beat the Broncos in Week 1. Denver had not one but two fumbles on runs from the 1-yard line. Somehow they held the Broncos to just 16 points, despite Denver racking up 433 total yards and averaging 6.8 yards/play. They also gave up 5.2 yards/carry vs a much weaker Broncos rushing attack than what they will see with the 49ers. Offensively Geno Smith had his moments early in that game against Denver, but that offense could do next to nothing in the 2nd half and finished the game with a mere 253 total yards. 49ers have a better defense than the Broncos. We also think that even though this is a division game, there's a chance we see a bit of a letdown from the Seahawks. Not just because they won the game, but just given how much build up there was for that game with it being the first game for Russell Wilson as an opposing QB. We got the 49ers winning this game by double-digits no problem.
NCAAF Guaranteed Bet Refund No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 17, 2022 )
UTEP vs New Mexico
Bet: New Mexico +2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
UTEP steps into this one with a 1-2 record and their lone win came last week 20-13 vs New Mexico State. The Miners were outgained in that game and beaten at the line of scrummage allowing 4.7 YPC to the Aggies while gaining just 3.5 YPC. UTEP was also +1 turnovers in the win yet NM State had the ball deep in Miner territory late with a chance to tie but fumbled on the 13 yard line. That’s an NMSU team that has a grand total of 5 wins vs FBS teams since the start of the 2018 season. Not an impressive effort by UTEP. Now they are favored on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2016 season. Definitely a role they are not used to. The Miners in fact, are just 6-11 ATS the last 17 times they’ve been a road chalk. New Mexico is 1-1 on the season and they have an extra day to prepare for this one after losing 31-14 to Boise State last Friday night. While the offense struggled vs a very good Boise defense, we were impressed with the Lobo stop unit as they held the Broncos to 318 total yards. In this match up last year NM held a 10 point lead at half @ UTEP and the Miners battled back for a 7 point win scoring their final TD with under 3:00 minutes remaining. We like New Mexico to win the line of scrimmage here which will give the advantage to the underdog. Speaking of underdog, the puppy has covered 5 of the 6 meetings in this series. UTEP has been overvalued by the oddsmakers with an 0-3 ATS record thus far losing those games by a combined 30 points to the number. They continued to be overvalued here as a road favorite. We like New Mexico to win this game at home.
NFL Guaranteed Bet Refund No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 11, 2022 )
New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans
Bet: Giants +7/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
If you use a simple method of calculating last year’s records to determine strength of schedule for the upcoming season, there are only three teams who have an easier schedule than the Giants. The four easiest schedules belong to the four teams that make up the NFC East. Playing in the weakest division in the league allows plenty of opportunity for the Giants to improve on last season’s record. The #5 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft Kayvon Thibodeaux comes highly touted out of Oregon. He had been projected to go even higher, and the Giants were lucky to get him with their 5th pick. Playing opposite Azeez Ojulari the duo should terrorize opposing quarterbacks in the coming season. The Giants haven’t had a player with at least 12 sacks since 2014, but that is expected to change here in 2022. The Titans are the reigning AFC South champions after going 12-5 last season, but they might be due to take a step back in 2022. Six of their 12 wins last year came by three points or less, and for much of the season, it felt like they were getting it done with smoke and mirrors. They are thin at wide receiver after trading A.J. Brown to the Eagles and releasing Julio Jones. Brown led the team in receiving yards in each of the last three seasons, leaving big shoes to fill for rookie wideout Treylon Burks drafted #18 in the first round out of Arkansas. The Titans invested heavily in their offensive line when they made Taylor Lewan the highest-paid lineman in the NFL back in 2018. As is often the case, he never really lived up to the lofty expectations after securing the bag. Tennessee is projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this season. Pro Football Focus ranked the Titans 27th in pass-blocking with a 54.3 grade, but ranked them closer to the middle of the pack in run blocking. Not one of the Titans offensive linemen ranked in the NFL’s top 10 in pass-block or run-block win rate last year. Despite winning the division and making the playoffs last season, Ryan Tannehill took a major step back. He threw for 33 TDs and just seven INTs in 2020, posting a passer rating of 106.5. He threw twice as many INTs (14) in 2021, and threw just 21 TD passes with a passer rating of 89.6. His numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since posting a passer rating of 117.5 in 2019, his first season in Tennessee. With a younger and less experienced receiving corps, an inferior offensive line and a star running back coming off an injury-riddled season, he could be in for a world of hurt in 2022. Take the points here with the Giants in Week 1.
NCAAF Guaranteed Bet Refund No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 10, 2022 )
Duke vs Northwestern
Bet: Duke +10/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Our money is on Duke to cover as 10-point road dogs against Northwestern. Both teams are off impressive wins in their season openers. The Wildcats beat Nebraska 31-28 as a double-digit dog in Dublin in Week 0, while the Blue Devils defeated Temple 30-0 as a 9-point home favorite in Week 1. To us the clear value here is with Duke at this price. For one, we think the Blue Devils have a chance to be a lot better than people expect. Coming off a 3-9 season, most had Duke pegged for last in the ACC Coastal and at or near the bottom of their overall ACC rankings. Our two biggest takeaways from Duke's win over Temple was the play of starting quarterback Riley Leonard and the immediate impact that first year head coach Mike Elko had on the defensive side of the ball. Leonard completed his first 15 attempts and ended up going 24 of 30 for 328 yards and 2 scores. He also led the team with 64 rushing yards. Defensively they held the Owls to just 179 total yards, which is quite the feat for a team that gave up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg in 2021. As for Northwestern, not to take anything away from their upset win over Nebraska, but some of that was the Cornhuskers being the Cornhuskers. After going up 28-17 early in the 3rd quarter, Nebraska inexplicably tried an onside kick. It gave all the momentum to the Wildcats and they never gave it back. We also think you got look at how Nebraska played last week against North Dakota. They would end up winning that game 38-17, but were tied 17-17 with an FCS foe with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Duke has the goods to keep this within the number, we could see them winning this game outright. Give us the Blue Devils +10.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Preseason No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 20, 2022 )
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
Bet: Detroit Lions ML -130 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Tim Boyle and David Blough were solid for the Lions in Week 1 as they posted 252 passing yards as a duo and they will take on a Colts defense that allowed over 300 passing yards to Case Keenum and Matt Barkley last week. The Colts will have a solid defense in the regular season, but right now, their defense is nothing special. Indianapolis has four different quarterbacks on the roster, but we will not see Matt Ryan this weekend. The veteran play caller is still getting used to his new receivers and needs time with the starting receivers, so it will be up to the rest of the Colts’ quarterbacks for this matchup. None of Indianapolis’ quarterbacks were all that impressive last week as Jack Coan struggled going 1-for-5 on passing attempts. Dan Campbell wants to win no matter if it’s the preseason or the Super Bowl, so back Detroit on the moneyline ( -130 ) to get their first win of the preseason.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Preseason No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 13, 2022 )
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet: Cleveland Browns ML +110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We expect the Browns to come into this game with more of a chip on their shoulders. Deshaun Watson missed the entire 2021 season with Houston, and with a potential year-long suspension looming, we expect him to come out highly motivated to get the team in the endzone in one of the games opening drives. After Watson, the Browns have three veteran quarterbacks with something to prove in Jacoby Brissett, Josh Dobbs, Josh Rosen. The Jaguars Trevor Lawrence maynot play in his game, and even if he does the Jags depth chart at that position is not as strong as what Cleveland has. The expectations are higher in Cleveland this season, and after going 3-0 last preseason, Kevin Stefanski seems like a coach who like to win preseason games. We will take Cleveland as a small underdog.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Super Bowl Play: ( Play released for February 13, 2022 )
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Bet: Cincinnati +4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
All the pressure is really on the Rams here. Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay got to the Super Bowl a few years ago and scored a measly 3 points against the Patriots. There is immense pressure on LA to make up for that effort here. In turn, that puts pressure on QB Matthew Stafford and he has been prone to turnovers in the past. Is this the game the turnover bug bites him again? This would not surprise us if it is. The Bengals and QB Joe Burrow come into this game in an entirely different situation. Cincinnati, of course, was not expected to be here. But the fact no one expects anything from them and any win through the post-season was just a bonus, this Bengals team is playing rather loose and relaxed. That said, and with the line move to the 4.5 range, we really like having the points here in a game in which an outright upset would not surprise us in the least. But having the points is truly a solid bonus as the Bengals have only failed to cover twice in their last ten games against teams with a winning record. Cincy has been an ATS covering machine. The Rams last ten games against teams with a winning record has seen them cover only three of the games. Value with the points. We'll take it!
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for January 23, 2022 )
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Back in Week 5, the Chiefs looked vulnerable in their 38-20 loss to Josh Allen and the Bills but a lot has changed since then. In the first meeting, star defensive tackle Chris Jones wasn’t on the field and defensive end Melvin Ingram hadn’t yet been acquired. Those two along with a healthier Frank Clark, gives the Kansas City defense a much better unit to slow down Allen in the running game. As the season has progressed, Nick Bolton has also become more involved in Steve Spagnuolo’s game plans, so also look for No. 54 to be impactful. In the Wild Card round, it took a couple of drives for Patrick Mahomes to get going but by the time halftime rolled around, he and the offense were clicking. The Bills passing defense has been stingy but now without top cornerback Tre’Davious White, the Chiefs should be able to take advantage. The Chiefs have their loyal fan base powering Arrowhead Stadium, one of the best home-field advantages in all of sports. Expect the noise to drown out offensive play calls for the Buffalo offense and make life difficult for Allen. Chiefs 38 - Bills 31.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for December 1st, 2021 )
Texas Tech vs Providence
Bet: Providence +3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Texas Tech is overvalued right now. They are 6-0 but have played one of the weakest schedules in the country. 3 of the teams they’ve faced are ranked below 300 and the best team they have played is Prairie View A&M who is ranked 239th in the nation and currently has a record of 0-8 vs tough competition. On top of that they haven’t even left the state of Texas yet this season. They’ve played 5 home games and a neutral site game vs Incarnate Word in South Padre Texas. They have not done enough to date to be favored by more than a possession on the road vs a solid Providence team. The Friars have already played 3 teams ranked inside the top 70 and won 2 of those game vs Wisconsin & Northwestern. Their only loss thus far was @ Virginia. Providence is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up and their numbers have been solid vs a very good schedule. They get to the FT line a lot (23% of their points come from the line – 24th most nationally) and they make almost 74% from the stripe. Tech has fouled a lot this season but they’ve gotten a bit lucky as their opponents are hitting only 59% from the line on the season vs the Red Raiders. That won’t happen here. We can’t even use Tech’s numbers to handicap this game because of the terrible schedule they’ve played everything is over inflated. Over the last 2 seasons Tech is 8-11 SU on the road and half of their wins (4) have come by 5 points or less. Providence has won 26 of their last 32 home games.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for November 30, 2021 )
Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns
Bet: Suns -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The 18-2 Golden St Warriors travel to Phoenix tonight to take on the 17-3 Suns. This is no ordinary meeting, as it brings together opponents from the same division with winning percentages of .850 or higher at least 20 games into the season for the FIRST time in NBA history. The Suns haven't lost since Oct 27 at home against Sacramento and will be shooting for a franchise-record-tying 17th straight win, while the Warriors enter on a seven-game winning streak to build upon their league-best start. The Warriors are no strangers to winning streaks themselves. They opened the 2016 season with 24 straight wins before losing 108-95 at Milwaukee, after the Warriors had gone 16-0 in the month of November. The Suns would match that feat by beating Golden State. Anyone doubting the greatness of Steph Curry these days? He's averaging 28.6-5.8-6.8 and is joined by SF Wiggins (19.0 & 4.6) and SG Poole (18.1). The other Golden St starters are PF Green (8.2-7.8-7.9) and center Looney (5.5 & 6.6). If Klay Thompson and James Wiseman ever get healthy and return to the court, who knows how good the Warriors could be. The Phoenix guard duo of Booker (23.9-5.1-4.7) of Paul (14.5 & 10.1 APG) has been superb, while center Ayton averages 15.4 & 11.5 (nine double-doubles in his last 11 games). Joining that trio in the starting lineup are SF Bridges (12.9 & 4.0), and PF Crowder (8.7 & 4.7). The Suns took care of business on a just completed, four-game trip to San Antonio, Cleveland, New York and Brooklyn, using better-than-50-percent shooting to dispense of the Spurs, Cavaliers and Knicks before surviving a 39-point explosion from the Nets' Kevin Durant on Saturday in an impressive 113-107 victory. The Suns are hitting on all cylinders, with the only significant injury sidelining backup big man Frank Kaminsky (10.6 & 4.6), who is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in his right knee.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 13, 2020 )
Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints
Bet: Saints -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016). Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 13, 2020 )
NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills
Bet: Over 39.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East. The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 13, 2020 )
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
This is an easy standout. Philadelphia isn't getting enough love after further upgrading its defense with Javon Hargrave and Darius Slay and looking to be more explosive shape offensively around Carson Wentz. Meanwhile, Ron Rivera is trying to clean up a mess as the new coach of the Washington Football Team. The Ohio State first-round combination of Dwayne Haskins and Chase Young should show promise as the season progresses, but for now, this is a rebuilding team getting used to new offensive and defensive schemes. The short division road trip hasn't been a problem for the Eagles in the past and they are Super Bowl contenders in contrast to Washington being in play for the league's worst record. A healthy Carson Wentz will almost always beat a healthy Dwayne Haskins, which is why the Eagles are favored in this NFC East clash by almost a touchdown. This will be a game the Eagles win by double digits. We will see Doug Pederson advance to 4-0 in season openers and 5-0 in his last five games against Washington. Wentz will be looking like his 2017 form more than his 2018 self.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NCAAF No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 05, 2020 )
Arkansas St. vs Memphis
Bet: Arkansas St. +19/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We took a dog in the opener last season with Hawaii against Arizona and that turned out just fine. The Warriors win outright 45-38 as a big underdog. While we will be very pleasantly surprised if we get the outright here, we will gladly take the generous points. We put a lot of stock in the fact Arkansas State is coming into this game with the stability of a well established head coach in Blake Anderson. We all know how much turmoil everything has been with teams getting prepared for this season with all the craziness surrounding the scene. We do think the teams with stability have an edge. On the flip side we have the Memphis Tigers playing their first game with their new coach and there just has to be more questions about their being prepared to come out hitting on all cylinders right out of the gate. This is no rag tag team the Red Wolves will be throwing at the Tigers. They won 8 games last year and were a bowl team. We also love the fact they are returning nine starters on offense including the entire offensive line. This total is sky high because the odds makers know this is a team perfectly capable of putting up points on their own.We will take the team with less question marks here. We say we go with Arkansas State and the points.
Guaranteed MLB Special Release Destroyer Game of the Year: ( Play released for August 12, 2020 )
Rays vs Red Sox
Bet: Rays -1.5/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Red Sox just aren’t very good in 2020 and their fortune doesn’t figure to change much Wednesday in this matchup with Blake Snell and the Rays. Tampa came into Fenway Park and won 8-2 on Tuesday, their 4th win in a row and 5th in the last 6 games. One big six-run inning was all that they needed. They’ve now scored 8 runs in B2B games to open the series and had a season-high 16 hits in Monday’s opener. These two AL East rivals are heading in opposite directions right now. Boston has lost 7 of its last 10 games, landing them in last place in the division. They are 1-3 vs. Tampa Bay this year having allowed 5+ runs in every game. Since the start of last season, they are just 8-15 vs. the Rays. Zach Godley will get the starting nod Wednesday for the Red Sox and he has a 6.14 ERA and 1.774 WHIP after two starts. The team has lost them both. Going back to last season, Godley has an 0-6 TSR L6 starts and hasn’t gone longer than four innings in any of them. Boston’s bullpen isn’t very good either. Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Winner for the Rays, has yet to record a decision in any of his three 2020 outings. None of them have seen him pitch more than three innings. Two of the three, he didn’t allow any runs. He has said he’d like to work as many as five innings tonight. He should pitch well, no matter how deep into the game he goes. Boston is hitting just .202 in games vs. southpaw starters. The Red Sox have only been a ML home dog of +125 to +175 twice in the last three seasons.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 11, 2020 )
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Bet: San Antonio Spurs -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The San Antonio Spurs are just 0.5 games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for 9th place in the West and tied with Phoenix for 10th place. Remember, the 8th seed will face the 9th seed in a play-in game to make the playoffs. This is a must-win for San Antonio with only two games remaining. The Spurs have handled this pressure well in going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS to put themselves in this position. And they are much healthier than the Houston Rockets, who are almost certainly locked into the 4th seed in the West. The Rockets will be without both James Harden and Eric Gordon tonight, and they could be without Russell Westbrook, who is dealing with a quad injury. Danuel House is also questionable with a toe injury. They just want to be healthy going into the playoffs, so they’d be wise to play it safe. The Spurs are 38-12 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Spurs Tuesday.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 09, 2020 )
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Bet: Portland Trail Blazers -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This is a huge game for these Blazers and they will be MAX motivated to atone for the gag job vs the Clippers yesterday morning. These 76ers will really miss Simmons in this game and we just don't see this 76ers club being able to keep up offensively with these hot shooting Blazers and their exceptional offense. We look for a huge bounceback game from Lillard tonight and an extremely focused and motivated Portland club in this spot. This is flat out a must win game for Portland tonight and we feel confident they get here vs this 76ers club missing their 2nd best player, who's also their best defender and the teams offensive play maker. We are all over Portland here and have them winning this game by 6-8 points after 4 quarters.
Guaranteed Bet Refund UFC No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 08, 2020 )
Gavin Tucker vs. Justin Jaynes
Bet: Justin Jaynes +110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The fourth fight at UFC Fight Night 174 will see Gavin Tucker take on Justin Jaynes. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Jaynes comes into this fight with a record of 16-4 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. He could not have asked for a better UFC debut, as he knocked out Frank Camacho 41 seconds into the fight. He has now won five fights in a row, all of them coming inside the distance (one win was due to a DQ). Because of his debut, Jaynes is averaging 23.41 significant strikes per minute. It took all of 16 strikes to finish off Camacho and he will be looking for a quick fight here as well. His opponent, Gavin Tucker, comes in 11-1 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. He won his last fight by submission against Seung woo Choi back in July of 2019. Tucker is not the best striker by any means, only landing 2.66 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 37%. The 30-year-old veteran Justin Jaynes, of 20 MMA wars has spent seven years plying his craft for the moment Saturday night presents. Overall, “Guitar Hero” has won five consecutive bouts, all by TKO or submission. The top-level training, explosive Octagon debut and chance for greater reward make Jaynes dangerous competition this weekend. Jaynes is the #77 lightweight in the world and is dropping to 145 for the first time in his career at UFC Vegas 6. Jaynes made weight and looked comfortable doing so, and we know he’s got stopping power. If you’re looking for an underdog that can score cheap points tonight, Las Vegas’s own Jaynes is the play. He’s won five fights in a row all by first round stoppage.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 04, 2020 )
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers
Bet: Portland Trail Blazers +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
While few can match Houston's offensive firepower and the attack led by Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Blazers do have a legitimate star in Lillard. The All-NBA guard is averaging 28.9 points and 8.0 assists per game this season and, simply put, Lillard is capable of taking over any game at any time. Overall, the Blazers deploy a top-eight offense in the NBA, and they are No. 4 in the league in offensive turnover rate. The Portland Trailblazers are coming into this game in real need of a win to stay in the playoff hunt after falling to the Celtics in a 128-124 loss on Sunday. Damian Lillard led the way with 30 points and 16 assists, Jusuf Nurkic racked up 30 points with nine rebounds and five assists, Gary Trent Jr. added 21 points off the bench while CJ McCollum chipped in with 17 points and four assists. As a team, the Trailblazers shot 50 percent from the field and 19 of 42 from the 3-point line as they rallied all the way back from a 24-point deficit, only to fall just short as the Celtics made the big plays down the stretch to steal the game late. Looking at the betting trends, the Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Trailblazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record. Not only has Portland had a lot of recent success against Houston in terms of the wins column, but they have covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings. Portland is one of the few teams in the NBA that can play the fast-paced style that Houston likes to use and the Trail Blazers have the players to out-shoot the Rockets on any given night. Given the value, take the Trail Blazers and enjoy watching this high-scoring game in Orlando.
Guaranteed Bet Refund MLB No Limit Play: ( Play released for July 27, 2020 )
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Rays -130 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Tampa Bay Rays look for another victory after taking two of three from the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays have scored 14 runs through three games and are coming off a 10-inning victory Sunday afternoon. The Rays have scored four or more runs in 12 of their last 15 regular season games. Brandon Lowe leads the Rays with five hits and three RBI while Willy Adames and Ji-Man Choi have combined for five hits and four RBI. Tyler Glasnow gets the ball for the Rays, and he was 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 76 strikeouts last season. This will be Glasnow’s second career game against the Braves. The Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. The Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East, 20-6 in their last 26 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games. The Atlanta Braves are on fire offensively in their last two games, but now they have to travel after playing a Sunday night game and have an early start here. Glasnow also proved to be one of the better young pitchers in baseball last season, and he allowed just a .186 batting average. This is a more than reasonable price to back the Rays with their ace on the mound.
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Guaranteed Bet Refund Destroyer Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 09, 2020 )
Delaware vs. Hofstra
Bet: Hofstra -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Delaware Blue Hens play the Hofstra Pride in one of the semifinals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament on Monday at the Entertainment and Sports Arena in Washington, D.C. Delaware improved to 21-10 following its 79-67 victory on Sunday over the Charleston Cougars, which also helped us to improve to 14-0 with our Bet Refund Guaranteed Plays. Nate Darling led the Blue Hens with 25 points in the quarterfinals victory for Delaware. Nate Darling is the leading scorer for Delaware with an average of 21.1 points per game. The Hofstra Pride improved to 22-8 after defeating the Drexel Dragons on Sunday in their Colonial Athletic Association quarterfinal matchup. Eli Pemberton led the Pride in the victory with 19 points. The Pride led by just three points at the half, but outscored Drexel 36-21 after the break. Hofstra outrebounded Drexel 38-32 and outshot the Dragons 46.6% to 32.1%. Desure Buie is leading Hofstra in scoring and assists with averages of 18.5 points and 5.9 assists per game, while Isaac Cantey is the third leading scorer and leading rebounder with averages of 11.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Eli Pemberton is the second-leading scorer with an average of 17.3 points per game and one of five players for Hofstra averaging double-figures in scoring. The Pride eased to a win in the quarterfinals so you can expect them to be ready for a fight in the semifinals. They're playing their best ball right now with 10 wins in their last 11 games, including an absolute demolition of the Blue Hens. Hofstra beat them by 16 points two weeks ago. And they're only laying a handful of points here? You have to take that. Hofstra brings it on both ends and held Drexel to just 9.1 percent shooting from long range in the quarterfinals. This should be a really good game, but ultimately, the Pride have a better team. It's not really about the stars in this one because Hofstra has two of them in Pemberton and Buie. Darling is an outstanding scorer, but he doesn't have enough help. That makes Hofstra a lot more difficult to defend, because they don't rely on just one player. Kante is the difference-maker in this one. Lay the points with the Pride confidently.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 08, 2020 )
Delaware vs. Charleston
Bet: Delaware +1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Delaware Blue Hens and Charleston Cougars are set to visit Entertainment and Sports Arena in Washington, D.C. for a CAA quarterfinal clash. The Delaware Blue Hens come into this matchup with a 21-10 record, and they will be looking to continue their success after winning their recent road game against the UNC Wilmington Seahawks, 82-65. Leading the way for the Delaware Blue Hens was sophomore guard Kevin Anderson as he recorded 14 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds. Joining Anderson in the backcourt was junior guard Nate Darling who had a productive outing for the Blue Hens with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. This game will feature two of the top scorers in the country as Grant Riller is averaging 21.7 PPG for Charleston while Nate Darling is sitting at 21.1 PPG for Delaware, but the Blue Hens are the better overall team in a clash of high scoring teams. The Blue Hens are one of the top-scoring teams in the CAA as they are averaging 73.9 PPG, and they have some scoring outside of Darling as Ryan Allen, Justyn Mutts, and Kevin Anderson are all contributing over 11 PPG. The Blue Hens like to do the majority of their work inside the three-point line as they rank 9th in the country in two-point percentage (56%), and they should find success against a Charleston defense that is average at defending the paint. This will be a high scoring affair, but Delaware will have the most weapons on the court which is the biggest difference here. Final Score Prediction, Delaware Blue Hens gets their revange and cover ATS 75-70.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 07, 2020 )
Seton Hall vs Creighton
Bet: Creighton -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The #11 Creighton Bluejays can win a share of the Big East regular-season title with a victory in this game. The Bluejays are one game back of Seton Hall who has already clinched their share of the Big East title. Creighton has won six out of their last seven games overall and covered the 13 points spread in a 91-76 home win over Georgetown on Wednesday night. The Bluejays are projected as a #4 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology. Ty-Shon Alexander continues to shine and has collected at least 18 points in five out of his last six contests. The junior guard is a huge threat from beyond the arc where he features a 40% clip and he has compiled an average of 17 PPG. Marcus Zegarowski scored 20 points in Tuesday’s winning effort. The sophomore guard has now reached 20 points in two out of his last three games and is averaging 15.9 PPG and 5 APG. Mitch Ballock has only scored double-digits in one out of his last four clashes. The junior guard has registered an average of 12 PPG. This is a huge game for both teams competing for the #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Creighton is very tough to beat on their home floor where they are sporting a dazzling 16-1 record, so we will gladly take them with this smaller spread. The Bluejays are winning games by large margins. Five out of their last six wins have occurred by at least eight points. Furthermore, Seton Hall hasn’t been quite as effective as of late. They are only 3-3 in their last six games overall and already lost 87-82 to Creighton on their home floor. The Pirates defense has been exploited recently as they have surrendered 79 points in back-to-back games and Creighton features several sharpshooters from three-point territory. We have a lot of respect for Seton Hall, but we can't go against Creighton here at home. The Blue Jays have won their last five home games by 11 points or more, covering the spread by an average of over 9-points per game during the span. The Blue Jays are a finely tuned athletic machine offensively, and we don't see the Pirates going on the road and outscoring them with so much on the line. In March games, Creighton is a perfect 16-0 ATS at home since 2010.
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Houston vs Connecticut
Bet: Connecticut +2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The UConn Huskies are much better than their 17-12 record would indicate. Each of their last 7 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. They are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games and playing well enough to knock off Houston. The Huskies want to avenge their 59-63 road loss at Houston on January 23rd in which they blew a 5-point halftime lead. If they can play with them on the road, they can certainly play with them at home where they are 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS this season. Each of Houston’s last 4 losses came on the road to Tulsa, Cincinnati, SMU and Memphis. UConn is 7-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this year. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as road favorites. The Huskies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as home underdogs, while Houston is 0-6 ATS last 2 seasons in road games off a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Cougars are also 0-5 ATS last 5 as a road favorite. No way we are passing up on UConn as a home dog. Huskies are 13-3 at home this season. They are 6-2 at home in AAC play, with both losses coming in OT.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 04, 2020 )
Minnesota vs Indiana
Bet: Indiana -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Golden Gophers have played well defensively, giving up 66.1 points per game. They haven’t done as well away from home, giving up 68.7 points per game and will struggle to slow down the Hoosiers, who have played well offensively, averaging 77.5 points per game at home. The Hoosiers have also done a good job on the defensive end, giving up 67 points per game. They are giving up 66.1 points per game at home and will keep the Golden Gophers, who are averaging 66.4 points per game, in check. The Hoosiers have done a better rebounding job at home, averaging 38.5 rebounds per game, while the Golden Gophers average 37.8 rebounds per game. They are grabbing 1.8 more offensive rebounds per game and 2.5 more steals per game, which will lead to more scoring opportunities for the team. The last meeting between these two up in Minneapolis the Hoosiers ended up winning 68-56. The Hoosiers outscored the Gophers in every category. FG% 44.4 to 34.4, 3pt% 28.6 to 16.0, turnovers 10-12, and rebounds 39-38. Minnesota led the game pretty much all game. Trayce Jackson-Davis took this game into his own hands for Indiana. He had 27 points and 16 rebounds. Devonte Green was the only other Hoosier in double digits with 11. With the Hoosiers winning six of the last eight meetings between the two teams, Indiana is the best bet.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 3, 2020 )
Rutgers vs. Maryland
Bet: Rutgers -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The No. 9 ranked Maryland Terrapins visit Rutgers Athletic Center in Piscataway, New Jersey on Tuesday for a Big Ten showdown with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Maryland Terrapins fell to 23-6 overall and 13-5 in the Big Ten following their 78-66 loss to the Michigan State Spartans. Despite the loss, Maryland remains in first place in the Big Ten by one game over three teams - Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin. Anthony Cowan Jr. is the leader in scoring and assists for Maryland with averages of 16.1 points and 4.7 assists per game. Jalen Smith is the second leading scorer and leading rebounder for Maryland with averages of 15.3 points in 10.5 rebounds per game. Maryland has three players averaging double-figures in scoring. Rutgers dropped to 18-11 overall and 9-9 in the Big Ten following is 65-64 loss last Wednesday to the Penn State Nittany Lions in a game that Rutgers trailed at one point by 21 before pulling out a one-point victory. Rutgers has lost each of its last three and four of its last five and sits on the proverbial “bubble” as the Big Ten Conference tournament and March Madness approach. Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer for Rutgers with an average of 12.1 points per game, while Geo Baker is the second-leading scorer and leader in assists with averages of 10.6 points and 3.5 assists per game. Myles Johnson is the leading rebounder with an average of 8.0 per game. Rutgers has just two players averaging double figures in scoring. Maryland is trying to protect its slim one-game lead over three other teams in the Big Ten. The Terrapins must win each of their final two games of the regular season to ensure they win the conference title. However, the Terrapins have failed to cover five of their last six overall and will be playing on the road against Rutgers, who is on the proverbial “bubble” and needs to win each of its final two games of the regular season. Final Score Prediction,Rutgers win and covers ATS 76-64.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 2, 2020 )
Texas Tech vs Baylor
Bet: Texas Tech +7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Let us start with a situational power-query betting system that has earned an outstanding record and has a simple to understand combination of parameters. This system has posted a 48-19-5 ATS record for 72% winners and requires us to bet on road teams as an underdog or pick (Red Raiders in this matchup)revenging a straight up loss to the current opponent as a home favorite and are off two consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals. The Red Raiders are coming off back-to-back dominating losses. They first lost 65-51 to No.1 Kansas and failed to cover as 1.5 point favorites. They shot a season-low 33% in that game. In their most recent game they lost at home to the Texas Longhorns 68-58 and failed to cover the spread as 11.5-point favorites. So, this is an exemplary contrarian play to be sure. Here si the good news. The Red Raiders are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after the 15th game of the regular season when facing excellent teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least 8 points-per-game in games played over last 2 seasons. From the predictive side of things, the summary projections show a final score result within a range of Baylor winning by four points to Texas Tech winning by four points. Consider making a combination wager on this dog bet using 80% of your normal 7-Star wager amount and then add the remaining 20% using the money line. Texas Tech is 53-11 SU for 83% wins and 33-15 ATS for 69% winning bets in home games where they have attempted at least 55 shot attempts, made at least 24 field goals, and had 12 or fewer turnovers in games played since 2006.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 1, 2020 )
Colorado vs Stanford
Bet: Stanford -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We’ll accept the current spread, but would prefer the money line. Our choice Stanford (21-8) comes in to this encounter with Colorado out on the left coast. Colorado who is 21-8 has really been flagged their last two games SU. Against the Golden Bears in the last encounter the offense sputtered with inefficiencies. The Cardinal has put together a solid record, however they too flash with inconsistencies. Recently they have won last three SU & ATS. Critical is the defense which has jammed opponents to 60 points per game at home this season. If guard Willis does not play for the Buffs, feel the Cardinal has a solid edge later today. Colorado is 14-40 ATS on the road, and despite their spread success against Stanford, we’ll BACK the Cardinal to cash.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 29, 2020 )
Arizona vs UCLA
Bet: UCLA moneyline/+125 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
UCLA is in a situation that's the complete opposite of Arizona's. They started the year off extremely slowly, but have since caught fire and are closing strong. They changed coaches and cultures this offseason by bringing in Mick Cronin from Cincinnati, and while they struggled at first, the move is finally starting to pay off. They had some embarrassing non-conference efforts, like when they lost to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton, but something magical happened when PAC 12 play started. They've now won six games in a row and 10 of their past 12 to move into a tie for first place in the conference. They nailed a three with one second left in their most recent game for a huge victory over a very good Arizona State team. Lunardi has them among his 'first four out,' so every game is of massive importance from here on out. They have a chance to play themselves into the tournament, and so far they appear up to the task. This is a pretty young team that plays a ton of freshmen and sophomores, so it's not surprising that they are peaking late in the year. They draw a raucous home crowd, and have one of the best home-court advantages in the conference. They just beat Arizona by 13 a couple of weeks ago, showing that they matchup pretty well against the Wildcats. Their defense was lights out in that one, holding Arizona to just 25 percent shooting from the floor. There is no way you can fade UCLA right now. They are absolutely on fire at the moment, and this is their biggest game yet. They just beat Arizona on the road by 13 points, so getting them as a home underdog here is great value. Not only are they going to cover this spread, they're going to win this game outright. Arizona has been underwhelming in conference play, and they looked terrible in their most recent game. UCLA has won 10 of 12, and with everything on the line here we are expecting their best. Roll with the Bruins to win outright.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 28, 2020 )
Davidson vs Dayton
Bet: Dayton -10.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will take our chances here with the Flyers and lay the big number. This line has dropped some from the opening mark of 12. That could be viewed as a sign to take Davidson. We just think the Wildcats are a team that people thought was going to be a lot better than they are and because they have won 4 of 5 we are seeing some interest spark back up as a double-digit dog. There's just no way we would bet against Dayton in this spot. Flyers have won 17 straight overall and are 15-0 in A-10 play. They have made it pretty clear they want to go undefeated and there's talks now of them maybe getting a No. 1 seed. We think this team will be extremely motivated to show up and show out tonight. Game will be played on ESPN2 and with a weak Friday card they know a lot of eyes will be on this game. Davidson has not been a good road team. They are a mere 4-12 ATS away from home. They have just one cover in their last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Dayton is 15-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 19.5 ppg (82.0 -62.5), and shoot 53% while allowing just 41%. So far they have won 6 of their 7 home conference games by double-digits. Give us the Flyers -10.5!
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 27, 2020 )
Marshall vs. UAB
Bet: UAB -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
These two squads have already met once this season. The Blazers won 61-50. The Blazers played a nearly perfect game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.417 and an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 38.9. The Thundering Herd recorded marks of 0.100 and 17.1, respectively, for those same stats. Makhtar Gueye was a top performer in the victory, with 15 points and seven rebounds. The offensive glass should be a major edge for UAB in this meeting. The Blazers are among the country’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 49th in offensive rebounding percentage at 32.6 percent. Meanwhile, Marshall ranks 333rd in the country at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 67.4 percent. At home this season UAB has a 9-6 record and although they aren’t an elite offensive team, there defense has stepped up when needed. At home this season UAB is averaging 65.5 points per game while the defense is giving up 64.2 points. UAB is led by guards Tavin Lovan and Jalen Benjamin who are both averaging 12.7 points per game. UAB is a strong defensive team and they are going to make life tough on the Thundering Herd in this game. Marshall is 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15 meetings against UAB. UAB won the first meeting at home and they'll win again. Why? Because they have one of the most dominant rebounding teams in the nation. In the first meeting, they outrebounded Marshall by 21 and held them to 4 of 26 from beyond the arc. Scott-Grayson, a 6-5 guard, had 11 rebounds. They also have two 6-10 players in Tamell Pearson and Makhtar Gueye, who make it difficult to score in the paint. Don’t be surprised if Marshall finishes with only 50 points again.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 25, 2020 )
Alabama vs. Mississippi St
Bet: Mississippi St -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We like Mississippi State a lot here. Both of these teams need this feeling like blood, but Alabama has been struggling recently while Mississippi State plays really well at home. The Bulldogs have been on fire offensively recently, and they are going to take advantage of this weak Alabama defense in front of what should be a solid crowd. Alabama has only won three games in the past month, and two of them were against a couple of the conference's worst teams. Alabama likes to play at a blistering fast pace, which doesn't translate as well on the road. Alabama hasn't won two straight games since January when they won four straight, but three of those were at home and the road win was at Vanderbilt. Mississippi State hasn't lost two straight since that stretch against Auburn/Bama/LSU back in early January. Last year they lost at Alabama, and came back home to beat them by 19 and we see a similar situation here. Mississippi State will win this one easily.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 22, 2020 )
North Carolina vs Louisville
Bet: Louisville -9/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Louisville shook off the cobwebs following back-to-back losses and absolutely throttled Syracuse last time out and we look for it to build off of that positive momentum here. North Carolina is simply playing out the string at this point, on the heels of six straight losses. Note that the Cardinals have gone 26-14 ATS, outscoring the opposition by nearly 10 points per game, after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. North Carolina is just 1-7 ATS when facing teams that allow 64 points or less per game this season, outscored by over seven points per contest in that situation. Take Louisville.
Guaranteed Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 19, 2020 )
Duke vs NC State
Bet: NC State +8/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK as our first CBB Game of the Year. NC State is playing its first home game in 18 days on Wednesday when it hosts sixth-ranked Duke. The Wolfpack have played three straight road games where they went 2-1 that included a loss at Boston College in their last one on Sunday to move back to .500 at 7-7 in the ACC. They are 11-3 at home and will look to snap a two-game slide at home. This will mark the 11th time NC State has faced a top-10 team under head coach Kevin Keatts. The Wolfpack are 4-6 against top 10 teams in the Keatts era, including a 2-2 mark against Top-10 foes in PNC Arena. Duke is 12-2 in the ACC which is good for first place by a half-game over Louisville entering Tuesday. The Blue Devils have won seven straight games since a loss to the Cardinals. They snapped a three-game non-cover skid with a 34-point home win over Notre Dame. Take NC State to ver the game and for the upset.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 18, 2020 )
Dayton vs VCU
Bet: Dayton -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The timing for this week’s rematch couldn’t be worse for VCU. The Rams are reeling right now. VCU has fallen sixth place in the A10 standings after dropping three of its last four games. The Rams enter with a 7-5 record in conference play and the team was forced to play its last game without starting point guard Marcus Evans, who sat with a knee injury. Evans surpassed the 2,000 point milestone earlier this season and the offense struggled without him in the lineup. Meanwhile, Dayton has cruised through the A10 schedule to enter with an undefeated 12-0 conference record. Dayton cruised to a 71-63 victory on the road against Massachusetts 71-63 on Saturday night to remain perfect in A10 play. Obi Toppin led the way with 19 points while Jalen Crutcher finished with 15 points and five assists for the Flyers, who shot 53 percent from the field and led by as many as 16 points on the night. Toppin gives the Flyers a major advantage on the inside in this game. Crutcher and Rodney Chatman are both good ball-handlers, so they should be able to take care of the basketball against the Rams` pressure defense. Meanwhile, the Rams struggled in that department in their last game against Richmond without Evans on the floor. They turned the ball over 22.2 percent of the time in that game and shot just 34.2 percent fro the field. Dayton is 23-2 on the season and 12-0 in conference play. They beat VCU 79-65 at home in their first meeting. VCU is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with double-digit road losses to Rhode Island and Richmond as well as an upset home loss to George Mason as 14.5-point favorites. We just don’t see how they’re supposed to compete with Dayton tonight given those recent results. VCU is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Rams are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Play released for July 28, 2018
Phillies vs Reds
Bet: Phillies -120 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
Ever been in a situation where you know your place of employment doesn't want you anymore, yet you still have to work one more day? It's a tough spot mentally and it's what Matt Harvey likely is dealing with today. The Reds are expected to deal Harvey before his next start. So you have to wonder about Harvey's state of mind. Maybe he reacts well, maybe he doesn't. But what we do know is Harvey hasn't been good in three years robbed of his great potential by serious elbow and shoulder injuries. Harvey has a 5.21 ERA this season. It was 6.70 last year. Clearly he's not the same pitcher. The Phillies are swinging hot bats. If you discount a two-run game against the Padres six days ago, they are averaging 6.7 runs in their last eight games. They have fortified their lineup trading for Asdrubal Cabrera, who already has 18 homers this year. The Reds' bullpen is down setup man Amir Garrett, who left yesterday's Reds' win with an Achilles' strain. Cincinnati closer Raisel Iglesias threw 25 pitches Friday night. So he carries a fatigue rating. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is pitching his best ball with a 2.38 ERA in his last six starts. Opponents are batting just .134 against him during this time frame. The Phillies have a deep and underrated bullpen. They also have shown an excellent ability to bounce back winning 36 of the last 53 times following a loss.
Play released for July 25, 2018
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Astros vs Rockies
Bet: Astros -118 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The Houston Astros are showing great value as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies tonight. They should be bigger favorites based on the fact that they have a huge advantage on the mound in this one. Charlie Morton has found his groove in Houston. He is 11-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 19 starts this season with 146 Kâ??s in 112 1/3 innings. The Astros have done an amazing job of developing their starters as Iâ??d put their rotation up against any in baseball. Jon Gray is 8-7 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in 18 starts for the Rockies this year. We are surprised he is getting as much respect from oddsmakers as he is given those poor numbers in a large sample size this year. Colorado is 1-12 in its last 13 home games vs. AL teams that allow 3.9 or fewer runs per game. Houston is 34-13 as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season, winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot. The Astros are 7-0 in the last seven meetings. Bet the Astros Wednesday.
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Play released for July 24, 2018
Braves vs Marlins
Bet: Marlins +117 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We like the value here with the Marlins as a home dog against the Braves in Tuesday`s MLB action. Miami was embarrassed in the series opener 12-1 on Monday and should come out with a chip on their shoulder after that lackluster effort. Atlanta has struggled in this spot of late. The Braves are just 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series, 1-4 in their last 5 after a win and 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 5+ runs. Miami on the other hand is 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less. The Marlins will send out Wei-Yin Chen, who is just 2-7 with a 5.75 ERA in 15 starts. However, Chen has been a completely different pitcher at home, where he owns a 1.83 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 7 starts. Miami has gone 12-5 in his last 17 home starts and 20-7 in his last 27 home starts vs a above-average team that`s won between 54% and 62% of their games. Atlanta will counter with Julio Teheran, who last started on July 15. Teheran has been hit or miss all season and has really struggled in day games, where he owns a 5.12 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 8 starts. There`s also a great system in play in favor of the Marlins. Home underdogs who are being outscored by 1 or more runs/game are 40-23 (63.5%) over the last 5 seasons when facing a team that is starting a pitcher that is working on 7 or more days of rest. Take Miami!
Play released for July 12, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Yankees vs Indians
Bet: Yankees -111 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The New York Yankees have gone a ridiculous 17-2 in Luis Severino`s 19 starts this season. And it`s rare that you get to back him at this kind of price. Severino is 14-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 143 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings. He has gone 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in five previous starts against the Indians as well. Corey Kluber is faltering of late at 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts. He is also 0-1 with a 12.80 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, yielding 9 earned runs and four home runs in 6 1/3 innings.
Play released for July 2nd, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Red Sox vs Nationals
Bet: Boston +160 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The oddsmakers have Boston way, way underrated here in the opener of a three-game series at Washington, and we think it`s well worth to take a stab on the visitors. Washington right-hander Max Scherzer (10-4, 2.04 ERA) is having an outstanding year and is a top Cy Young Award contender, but note that he`s 4-4 with a 6.04 ERA in 10 career starts against the Red Sox. Rick Porcello (9-3, 3.60 ERA) will take the ball for the Red Sox and he`s 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his lone start against Washington, an eight-inning effort in April of 2015. He`s cooled off since going 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his first seven turns of the season but is still 5-1 behind a 3.42 ERA in nine starts on the road. The Nationals have been shut out in three of Scherzer`s last four starts. The`re 1-7 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series and 2-7 in their last 9 interleague games. Red Sox are 11-1 in Porcello`s last 12 interleague starts and 41-12 in their last 53 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Play released for July 2nd, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Bet: Arizona-143 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the St.Louis Cardinals will continue a three game series Tuesday evening from Chase Field in Phoenix. The Cardinals will give the start to 22-year old right-hander Jack Flaherty, and 34-year old right-hander Zack Greinke will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks won two of three games in St. Louis early in the season. Zack Greinke will get the starting nod for the 18th time of the season, aiming for his fourth straight win. Greinke was tremendous in his previous start, tossing seven shutout innings against the Marlins, leading to the win to lift his record to 8-5. The D-Backs ace has now hurled 13 consecutive scoreless innings, improving his ERA on the season to 3.41 to go with a 1.11 WHIP in 103 innings pitched. Overall Greinke owns terrific numbers against the Cardinals, boasting a 12-5 record with a 3.42 ERA in 115.2 total innings. Jack Flaherty will make his 12th start of the season, looking to get back into the win column. Flaherty didn`t have his best stuff last time out, conceding four runs including two home runs in four innings against the Indians, resulting in a loss to even his record to 3-3. We are taking the Diamondbacks in this contest. Zack Greinke is in a groove on the mound, firing 13 consecutive shutout innings, and he features a 12-5 record with a solid 3.42 career ERA against St. Louis. Furthermore, the Cardinals have lost four straight games heading into Monday`s action, and they have surrendered a combined 27 runs in that span. Greinke has won five out of his last six starts, and we expect another win in this one.
Play released for July 1st, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Milwaukee -135 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the fifth time of the season, looking to extend his shutout streak. Peralta was dominant in his previous performance, firing seven shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Royals, leading to the win to lift his record to 3-0. The rookie right-hander is off to a remarkable start to his Major League career, sporting a 1.59 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP in 22.2 innings pitched, plus he has tossed 13 consecutive scoreless innings. Peralta has already accumulated 35 strikeouts through his four starts. He posted a solid 2.75 ERA in Triple-A this season. Christian Yelich is having no problem reaching base against the Reds this season, recording 6 hits in 16 at bats to go with a .474 on base percentage. The 26-year old center fielder is having a strong season in his first year as a member of the Brewers, sporting a .289 average with 11 home runs and 34 RBI’s. Yelich has driven in three runs in his last four games. The Brewers are scoring an average of 4.41 runs per game, ranking them 16th in the Majors. The Milwaukee pitching staff is their greatest strength as a team, registering a 3.44 team ERA, good for fourth in the Major Leagues. Matt Harvey will make his 18th appearance and 10th start as a member of the Reds. Harvey battled the Brewers early in the season and conceded four runs in five innings, and he has now allowed 10 runs to go with an 0-2 record in 16 career innings against Milwaukee. Christian Yelich is 5 for 21 with three RBI`s against Harvey, while Travis Shaw is 2 for 6, and Lorenzo Cain is 2 for 4. We are going with the Brewers in this contest. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is off to an incredible start to his Major League career, holding the opposition to only four runs in 22.2 innings, and he has fired 13 consecutive shutout innings. Furthermore, Matt Harvey conceded four runs in five innings against the Brewers earlier this season, and Milwaukee has scored 10 runs in 16 innings against him. Milwaukee`s pitching continues to shine, allowing three or fewer runs in seven out of their last ten games, plus they have won seven of eight games against the Reds this season. The Milwaukee Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games against the Reds heading into Saturday`s action, 4-0 in Peralta`s last 4 starts and 17-6 in their last 23 road games against a team with a losing record. The Cincinnati Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 home games against the Brewers and 16-36 in their last 52 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Plays released for Sunday 29th, 2017
Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Play Game of the Year: Cowboys vs Redskins
Bet: Cowboys -2 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Playing on a short week after being on the Monday night stage, as the Redskins were six days ago, is a tough spot. But things have become much tougher for Washington given its cluster injury problem in the offensive line and defense. How bad is it for the Redskins? Washington couldn't practice in pads once this past week. Just not enough bodies. Dallas is a top-five NFC team. The Redskins are going to have to defeat the Cowboys minus possibly four starting offensive linemen. Already ruled out is left tackle Trent Williams, the Redskins' best offensive lineman, and center Spencer Long. Right guard Brandon Scheff is doubtful and right tackle Morgan Morse is questionable. The Cowboys have 21 sacks. Only five teams have more sacks. Demarcus Lawrence is second in the NFL in sacks with 9 1/2. David Irving has three sacks in two games since coming back from a four-game suspension. The Redskins need to run the ball - or at least keep the threat of a run game - in order to slow down Dallas' pass rush. Washington, though, is just a mediocre running team and that was with a healthy offensive line. They don't have a star running back. It's hard not to believe the Cowboys' well-coached defense isn't going to control the line of scrimmage. Washington also has key defensive players injured. Jonathan Allen, the team's best run-stopper, is out. So is linebacker Mason Foster. Ezekiel Elliott is off his best game of the season rushing for 174 yards and catching a 72-yard screen pass to give him three touchdowsn against the 49ers last Sunday. Elliott is running wild now knowing a six-game suspension may come at any time. We doubt the Redskins can effectively contain Elliott. This is going to make Dak Prescott deadly in play-action. The Redskins' secondary is beat-up. Cornerbacks Josh Norman and Bashuad Breeland have been battling injuries. They are going to have a tough time keeping up with Dez Bryant.
Plays released for Saturday 21st, 2017
Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year: Southern Cal vs. Notre Dame
Bet: Notre Dame -3.5/-105 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This should be a dynamite game and a lot different than last year`s blowout win for the Trojans. Both of these teams are still looking to make it to the playoffs this year and that makes the game even more intense. The Trojans have a great offense, but it really hasn`t shown itself all that much this year and things won`t change against an Irish defense that has really been playing well of late and has had a week off to prepare. The defense for the Trojans has been solid this year, but they have also struggled at times and the Irish have an offense that can take advantage of that, especially with Brandon Wimbush being back on the field. This should be a great game, but in the end, we see the Irish winning by at least 7 points as they are rested and looking for revenge from last year`s loss, especially with the favorite being 5-0 ATS the last five in this series.
Plays released for Saturday 14th, 2017
Guaranteed No Limit Play: TCU vs. Kansas St
Bet: TCU Horned Frogs -6/-130 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We are going with TCU in this contest. TCU continues to show they are the real deal, defeating Oklahoma State two weeks ago followed by a win over 23rd ranked West Virginia last week. The Wildcats rely on their potent running game, however the Horned Frogs feature a stifling rush defense that is allowing an average of only 104 yards per game, ranking them 15th in the Country, so we expect the Wildcats to have a tough time moving the ball. Furthermore, the TCU offense is well-balanced with a strong QB and a dynamic running back which will be tough for the Wildcats to handle.
High Roller Plays Results
09/03/2017 NCAAF No Limit Play - West Virginia vs Virginia Tech -4/-120 Winner
09/02/2017 NCAAF No Limit Play - Arkansas State vs Nebraska Over 48 Winner
05/06/2017 MLB No Limit Play - White Sox vs Baltimore -1.5/-110 Loser
05/02/2017 MLB No Limit Play - Toronto vs NY Yankees -1.5/+100 Winner
04/24/2017 MLB No Limit Play - San Diego vs Arizona -160 Winner
04/19/2017 NBA No Limit Play - Atlanta vs Washington -5 Winner
04/15/2017 NBA No Limit Play - Indiana +9 vs Cleveland Winner
04/11/2017 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dogers vs Chicago Cubs -150 Winner
11/08/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Carolina vs New Jersey -145 Winner
11/07/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Indiana vs Charlotte -3 Winner
11/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - New Orleans -3 vs San Francisco Winner
11/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - 6.0 points teaser Dallas -1/Green Bay -1 Loser
11/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Philadelphia +3 vs. NY Giants Loser
11/03/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Atlanta -3 vs Tampa Bay Winner
10/30/2016 NFL No Limit Play - New England -6/-125 vs. Buffalo Winner
10/30/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Oakland -1 vs Tampa Bay Winner
10/29/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - 7.0 points teaser Wisconsin -2 / Arizona State vs Oregon over 68.5 Winner
10/27/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Jacksonville vs. Tennessee -3 Winner
10/24/2016 NFL No Limit Play - 7.0 points teaser Denver -1/Over 33 Winner
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Raiders +2 vs. Jaguars Winner
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Minnesota -2.5 vs Philadelphia Loser
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Patriots -7 vs. Steelers Winner
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Bills -2.5 vs. Dolphins Loser
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play Teaser - Buffalo -1.5 / New England -1 Winner
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Panthers vs Saints +2.5 Winner
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Ravens vs. Giants Winner
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Eagles -3 vs Redskins Loser
10/16/2016 NFL&NCAAF Teaser No Limit Play - Alabama -3 / New England -1 Winner
10/09/2016 NFL No Limit Play Game of the Month - New England -3.5/Green Bay -0.5 ( 7.0 points teaser ) Winner
10/08/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Game of the Year - Auburn -2.5 vs Mississippi State Winner
10/08/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Tennessee vs Texas A&M Winner
10/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Arizona -3/-125 vs San Francisco Winner
10/01/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Wisconsin +10.5 vs Michigan Winner
09/24/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Stanford -3 vs UCLA Winner
09/24/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play North Texas vs. Rice -7 Loser
09/10/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - NC State vs East Carolina +4.5 Winner
09/10/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - South Carolina vs Mississippi State -6 Winner
09/10/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - Wake Forever vs Duke -5 Loser
09/05/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - Mississippi vs Florida State -6 Winner
09/02/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - 7.0 points Teaser Alabama -4.5/Stanford -6 Winner
09/01/2016 NFL Preseason No Limit Play - Buffalo vs Detroit -3 Winner
08/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play Bounce Back Game of the Year - Seattle vs Texas -157 Winner
08/29/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dodgers -120 vs Colorado Loser
08/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Chicago Cubs -154 vs LA Dodgers Loser
08/25/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Detroit -115 vs Minnesota Winner
08/22/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cleveland -160 vs Oakland Winner
08/19/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Washington -143 vs Atlanta Winner
08/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Kansas +120 vs Detroit Winner
08/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Milwaukee vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-125 Winner
08/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Toronto -145 vs NY Yankees Winner
08/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets vs Arizona +1.5 Loser
08/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-110 Loser
08/12/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Atlanta vs Washington -1.5 Loser
08/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - White Sox vs Kansas -152 Winner
08/10/2016 MLB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Arizona vs NY Mets -117 Loser
08/06/2016 MLB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Miami vs Colorado -110 Winner
08/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Saint Louis -136 vs Cincinnati Winner
08/02/2016 MLB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Washington -145 vs Arizona Winner
08/01/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Washington -1.5/-120 vs Arizona Winner
07/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Arizona vs LA Dodgers -1.5/+100 Loser
07/27/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -127 vs NY Mets Winner
07/26/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs Baltimore -188 Loser
07/23/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets vs Miami -145 Winner
07/20/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Francisco vs Boston -146 Winner
07/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Baltimore -134 vs Tampa Bay Winner
07/10/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -145 vs Milwaukee Winner
07/04/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs San Francisco -126 Winner
07/02/2016 UEFA EURO FRANCE 2016 - Italy +150 vs Germany Loser
06/25/2016 UEFA EURO FRANCE 2016 - Northern Ireland vs Wales +105 Winner
06/22/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs NY Yankees -147 Winner
06/19/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Cleveland +5 vs Golden State Winner
06/16/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Golden State vs Cleveland -2 Winner
06/16/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Yankees -130 vs Minnesota Winner
06/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -120 vs Washington Winner
06/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Minnesota vs LA Angels -131 Loser
06/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs +130 vs Washington Loser
06/12/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Philadelphia vs Washington -1.5/-125 Loser
06/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Detroit vs NY Yankees -115 Loser
06/10/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Golden State vs Cleveland -2 Loser
06/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Oakland vs Milwaukee -125 Winner
06/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -170 vs Cincinnati Winner
06/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Atlanta vs San Diego -140 Loser
06/06/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Houston vs Texas -105 Winner
06/05/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets vs Miami -155 Winner
06/04/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Oakland vs Houston -127 Winner
06/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs San Diego -137 Winner
06/02/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Francisco -1.5/-115 vs Atlanta Winner
06/01/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cincinnati vs Colorado -1.5/+105 Loser
05/31/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-115 Loser
05/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs -140 Winner
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Miami Marlins -150 vs. Atlanta Braves Loser
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play White Sox vs. Royals -115 Winner
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Astros vs Angels +120 Loser
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 Loser
05/27/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Pittsburgh vs Texas -139 Loser
05/25/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Chicago Cubs -160 vs Saint Louis Winner
05/24/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Diego vs San Francisco -1.5/+105 Winner
05/22/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Seattle -145 vs Cincinnati Winner
05/21/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -150 vs San Francisco Loser
05/21/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Cleveland -4 vs Toronto Loser
05/21/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Saint Louis vs San Jose -150 Loser
05/20/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Atlanta vs Philadelphia -165 Loser
05/19/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Saint Louis vs San Jose -145 Winner
05/16/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Minnesota vs Detroit -160 Winner
05/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Pittsburgh vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-130 Winner
05/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - White Sox -137 vs NY Yankees Winner
05/12/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Nashville vs San Jose -171 Winner
05/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -132 vs LA Angels Winner
05/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Diego vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-110 Loser
05/07/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Washington vs Chicago Cubs -130 Winner
05/05/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Miami vs. Toronto -4 Push
05/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play - New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles -120 Winner
05/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -185 vs. Pirates Winner
05/02/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Cleveland Cavaliers -2 and San Antonio -2/5.5 points teaser Loser
04/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Detroit -120 vs. Minnesota Winner
04/29/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Angels -120 vs. Texas Loser
04/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Week - White Sox vs. Baltimore -130 Winner
04/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Favorite Game of the Week - Miami vs. LA Dodgers -122 Loser
04/27/2016 NBA No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year Charlotte vs Miami -5/-121 Loser
04/26/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Milwaukee vs. Cubs -1.5/-105 Loser
04/24/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Baltimore vs. Kansas City Royals -152 Winner
04/23/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -158 vs. Cincinnati Loser
04/20/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Charlotte vs Miami -4/-120 Winner
04/16/2016 NBA No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Houston vs Golden State -13 Winner
04/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Baltimore vs. Texas -132 Winner
04/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Milwaukee vs. Saint Louis -1.5/+135 Winner
04/10/2016 MLB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - Boston vs. Toronto -123 Winner
04/09/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Pirates vs. Reds +1.5/-135 Winner
04/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Month - Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona +1.5/-135 Winner
04/07/2016 NBA No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - San Antonio vs. Golden State -5 Winner
04/06/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Houston vs. NY Yankees -125 Winner
04/05/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets -114 vs. Kansas City Winner
04/04/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Championship Game - Villanova +2.5 vs. North Carolina Winner
04/02/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Oklahoma +2 vs. Villanova Loser
04/01/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Morehead State vs. Nevada -180 ML Winner
03/31/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Week - George Washington +2 vs. Valparaiso Winner
03/27/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Syracuse +8 vs. Virginia Winner
03/26/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Oklahoma +1 vs. Oregon Winner
03/25/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Gonzaga vs. Syracuse +4.5 Winner
03/24/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Miami vs. Villanova -4 Winner
03/23/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Vermont vs. Nevada -3 Winner
03/22/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Saint Mary`s vs. Valparaiso -3 Winner
03/21/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Week - George Washington vs. Monmouth -2 Loser
03/20/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Wisconsin vs. Xavier -4 Loser
03/19/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - Indiana +3 vs. Kentucky Winner
03/18/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Stephen F. Austin +7 vs. West Virginia Winner
03/17/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Arkansas-Little Rock +9 vs. Purdue Winner
03/16/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Month - Houston vs. Georgia Tech -3 Winner
03/12/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Memphis vs. Connecticut -5 Winner
03/11/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Colorado State vs. Fresno State -3 Winner
03/08/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Creighton vs. Seton Hall -1.5 Winner
03/08/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Gonzaga -2 vs. Saint Mary`s Winner
03/07/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - East Tennessee State vs. Chattanooga -3 Winner
03/06/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Iona -2 vs Siena Winner
03/05/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - George Washington vs Davidson -1 Winner
03/04/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Ball State vs Northern Illinois -3.5 Winner
03/03/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play of the Year - Illinois vs Maryland -15 Winner
03/02/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Chicago vs Orlando -4 Winner
03/02/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Mississippi State vs Ole Miss -5 Winner
03/01/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Central Michigan vs Ball State -130 Loser
02/28/2016 NHL No Limit Play - LA Kings vs Anaheim -130 Winner
02/28/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Colorado State vs Nevada -2 Winner
02/27/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Furman vs Western Carolina -1 Winner
02/26/2016 NBA No Limit Play - LA Clippers -3 vs Sacramento Winner
02/25/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Houston vs Portland -3 Loser
02/24/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Villanova vs Xavier +1.5 Winner
02/23/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Rhode Island vs Davidson -3 Winner
02/19/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Detroit vs Washington -1 Winner
02/16/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - Michigan vs Ohio State -1.5 Winner