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Free picks:
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/-130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Backing the Texas Rangers at -130 for Saturday’s matchup against the Houston Astros appears to be a really solid play, considering the Rangers' recent form and home-field advantage. The Rangers have won six of their last seven games and boast a strong 16–9 record at Globe Life Field. Tyler Mahle, the scheduled starter, has been exceptional this season, posting a 4–1 record with a 1.47 ERA. Mahle is having the best season of his career and he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a game yet, and we doubt he will on Saturday. Mahle allowed a .217 BA in 46 at-bats against the Astros. His ability to limit opposing offenses, combined with the Rangers' recent offensive improvements under new hitting coach Bret Boone, positions Texas favorably in this contest. Key contributors like Corey Seager and Josh Smith have been instrumental in the Rangers' offensive resurgence, providing consistent production at the plate. On the other side, the Astros have struggled on the road, holding an 8–12 away record. While they have won three of their last four games, inconsistencies in their offense and the absence of key players like Yordan Alvarez have impacted their performance. Ronel Blanco, their probable starter, has shown potential but has been inconsistent, with a 3–3 record and a 4.04 ERA. Given the Rangers' current momentum, strong home performance, and Mahle's dominance on the mound, Texas at -130 offers a promising opportunity. Go with the Rangers to take game 2 of this series.
Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL/-150 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
After a 13-3 dominant victory yesterday, the Chicago Cubs are poised to to do it again in today’s Crosstown Classic at Wrigley Field. Veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd takes the mound for the Cubs, bringing a strong 2025 season performance with a 3-2 record, 2.78 ERA, and 45 strikeouts over 45.1 innings. Boyd’s recent outing included six solid innings against both the Giants and Mets, allowing just two runs in each, adding to his solid and yet unexpected 2025 campaign. Opposing him is White Sox right-hander Sean Burke, who holds a 2-4 record with a 4.15 ERA in 43.1 innings this season. Burke’s inexperience at the major league level could be a disadvantage against the Cubs’ potent offense. The White Sox have the most starts by a rookie pitcher this year and the trend continues today for Burke. The Cubs’ offense, bolstered by consistent contributors like Seiya Suzuki and the newly added Kyle Tucker, has shown the ability to produce in key moments. Their balanced lineup offers a blend of power and on-base skills that feeds off of momentum and scores in bunches. Yesterday even though the White Sox took an early 2-0 lead, the Cubs came back with 6 runs in the bottom of the 2nd. On top of that, the Cubs enter this game riding a six-game winning streak over the White Sox, highlighting the talent gap and a growing confidence over their neighbors. With Matthew Boyd dealing on the mound and the Cubs’ bats trending upward, this matchup sets up well for a multi-run victory. Expect Chicago to generate early offense and control the tempo, making the -1.5 line a strong play.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Detroit Tigers ML/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
We are on the Tigers in this one. It would be nice to know who the Blue Jays are sending out in this game, but the thing for us here is that the Tigers are so hot right now that it’s hard to step in front of them. Olson has been inconsistent at times in fairness, and the Blue Jays could do some damage, but again, we are not trying to stand in front of this runaway freight train that is the Detroit Tigers. Give us Detroit in this one.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 RL/-130 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
As rivalry weekend continues, we head to the Keystone State for our Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. The Phillies took Friday’s game, and if you are only looking at the 8-4 score it seems like the beating you would expect. But Pittsburgh was ahead for much of the game, at least until its bullpen had a walk-fest and handed the Phillies a huge inning. On Saturday the Phillies send Zack Wheeler to the mound, and we just don’t know how you would play anything other than the Phillies in a landslide. Give us Philadelphia -1.5. Wheeler, of course, is one of baseball’s best; no need to explain things. The wind is blowing out, but we are not sure this current Pirate lineup could take advantage of that if you tossed it to them underhanded. The only dangerous hitter is Oneil Cruz, but he has been plagued by a back injury lately and looked like he was in pain Friday. The Pirates are throwing Carmen Mlodzinski, and the fact that he has been with the Pirates all season and you still don’t know who he is tells you all you need to know there. Weird things happen in baseball, but there is no logical reason for this game to be close. Give me the Phillies to cover.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Cincinnati was able to start this series with a close victory on Friday night, but they have really struggled over the last two weeks. The Reds are just 11-12 at home this year, while the Guardians are 11-11 on the road. Cincinnati is going with Suter, who should only go only a few innings, while Cleveland is starting Cecconi, who is making his first appearance of the season. Once Suter is done for the Reds, Petty is expected to be the bulk reliever, but he has really struggled in limited work. Take the Guardians to get the win here.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Under 10/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Cleveland Guardians look to bounce back after suffering a 5-4 loss in the interleague series opener against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday. The Guardians turn to RHP Slade Cecconi, who comes off the injured list to start Saturday’s game. He is taking the place of the injured RHP Ben Lively, who is sidelined due to a strained right forearm. Cecconi went 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA with a pair of walks and 10 strikeouts across 13.0 innings in 3 minor-league rehab starts, so the Cincinnati bats could get cooking early in this game. If Cecconi departs rather quickly, that means a so-so bullpen takes over. Cleveland’s bullpen has a 4.09 ERA this season, but just 16 homers allowed. On the flip side, the Reds go with an opener; RP Brent Suter gets the starting nod. The 35-year-old will be making his second start and 15th appearance of the season. He has a respectable 2.08 ERA but isn’t stretched out to last more than an inning or 2. That means he’ll give way to a Cincinnati bullpen which ranks ninth in the majors with an ERA of 3.50. However, Cincinnati’s bullpen has allowed 23 home runs — which is tied for the third-most in the majors. Moreover, the wind will be blowing out to left field at a 9-12 MPH clip — which is a bit problematic. Still, a double-digit number with these offenses is a lot. Cincinnati has cashed low in 5 straight games, and the Under is 10-2 in its past 12. The Under is 5-1-1 in the past 7 for Cleveland, too. Let’s go low, but proceed with caution.
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Over 9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Atlanta got a fantastic start from Sale on Friday night in their game one win, but they are just 8-15 on the road so far this year. The Braves have won four of their last five games, and they have allowed just two runs in three of their last four. Boston is trying to avoid a fifth straight loss here, but they have allowed 34 runs in those four games. The Red Sox are starting Giolito, who pitched better last time out, but allowed six earned runs to Texas before that. The Braves are going with Holmes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his last three starts. We don’t really trust either pitcher in this game, so we like the over here.
Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers ( May 17, 2025 )
Bet: Minnesota Twins ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Minnesota Twins take on the Milwaukee Brewers for the second game of the series. Minnesota took the opener 3-0, extending its winning streak to 12 games. This was not pretty for the Brewers, as that makes it 3 out of the last 4 games that they have been shut out. On the mound today is Pablo Lopez of the Twins and Tobias Myers of the Brewers. Lopez has looked great through his last 3 away starts. He has pitched 18.0 innings while giving up 11 hits and 3 runs. Additionally, the Twins have won the game in 3 of his last 4 starts. On the year Myers has pitched 16.1 innings giving up 15 hits and 7 runs. While these numbers are good, he has only pitched beyond the fourth inning once. This is worrisome for the Brewers, as they have a bullpen ERA of 4.57 giving up 87 runs. Against a hot Twins team, the Brewers may need Myers to go well beyond the 4.0 innings mark to get the win in this one. On the hitting side, these teams are batting very similarly on the year. Where they differ is in the recent week. Through the past 6 games, the Twins have scored 30 runs on 52 hits while the Brewers have scored 15 runs on 39 hits. With the Brewers struggling to score runs, the Twins’ bullpen should have no issues in relief; they boast an ERA of 2.98 (fourth in MLB). All in all, we have the Twins bringing in momentum on their current 12-game winning streak and the Brewers struggling to even score a run in 3 of the last 4 games. Lopez should be able to hold his own against the Brewers lineup and the bullpen should be able to close out the game. We are taking the Twins to make it 13 in a row.
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